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JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 4:28:10 PM permalink
You all saw where I made a bundle last week with the OVER in Atl/St. L. Of course, mkl waited until I was correct before claiming I bet a hundred bucks instead of the COMBINED total of $10,000 I really made. (BTW, how many times have I said it was a combination of Vegas & on-line betting....is he EVER right??). Poor mkl, trying to make it up on the go again as he claimed I didn't make the bet since I'd have to fill out a cash transaction form over $10k if I won. But maybe this was one of those liberal "teachable moments" the guy longs for by understanding that since he believes I LOSE thousands on every vp trip, he'd get it that I transact over $10,000 many times each year. Does he EVER get anything right??

So even though I'm not placing any bets this week (and YES mkl, if you knew anything about sports betting you'd comprehend that I'm getting somewhere around $19,000 back...is he EVER right??) I urge any and all to follow my lead on this one if you like money.

Chicago +3.5 over Philly.

Wizard, I felt there was more value in betting the OVER than taking Atlanta to cover because of the 2 defensive backs illnesses (and mkl, I don't know if the books knew or not, but I actually kept track of the movement and the line held steady at the point I heard what I heard...do you EVER get anything right??). The Ram's QB seemed very capable of scoring lots of points so that bet was more solid to me than just betting Atlanta.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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November 26th, 2010 at 4:37:06 PM permalink
We should follow your lead and not place any money, right? :)

That extra half a point is rather juicy though, and if I was able, I'd also be betting the Bears on that line. Home dogs? Gotta love 'em.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 5:19:01 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

We should follow your lead and not place any money, right? :)

That extra half a point is rather juicy though, and if I was able, I'd also be betting the Bears on that line. Home dogs? Gotta love 'em.



No. Bet the farm and daughter. I'm not betting again until I collect on my last set, if I do at all.

Maybe I should become a handicapper.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 7:03:52 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

You all saw where I made a bundle last week with the OVER in Atl/St. L. Of course, mkl waited until I was correct before claiming I bet a hundred bucks instead of the COMBINED total of $10,000 I really made. (BTW, how many times have I said it was a combination of Vegas & on-line betting....is he EVER right??). Poor mkl, trying to make it up on the go again as he claimed I didn't make the bet since I'd have to fill out a cash transaction form over $10k if I won. But maybe this was one of those liberal "teachable moments" the guy longs for by understanding that since he believes I LOSE thousands on every vp trip, he'd get it that I transact over $10,000 many times each year. Does he EVER get anything right??

So even though I'm not placing any bets this week (and YES mkl, if you knew anything about sports betting you'd comprehend that I'm getting somewhere around $19,000 back...is he EVER right??) I urge any and all to follow my lead on this one if you like money.



Jerry, you may very well have made the bet as you stated. We'll never actually know, since all we have to go on is your word. I also presume you would have told us about the huge bets you LOST in prior weeks--right????

Some people were actually hoping you would behave when you returned from purgatory. We can dream...
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 7:10:25 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

We should follow your lead and not place any money, right? :)

That extra half a point is rather juicy though, and if I was able, I'd also be betting the Bears on that line. Home dogs? Gotta love 'em.



And if this bet wins, we will stand in awe in the presence of a handicapping genius. After all, no one has EVER CORRECTLY PICKED TWO GAMES IN A ROW before!!! (This presumes that JL didn't make a huge bet in Week 10 that we didn't hear about, because it totally tanked.)
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Mosca
Mosca
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November 26th, 2010 at 7:22:18 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan


Chicago +3.5 over Philly.




(low whistle......) wow. I look for Philly to roll this one, win huge. OTOH, I don't bet sports, so that makes my opinion worth what it cost you to read it.

I await the result with eyebrow raised.

BTW, let me get this straight; you haven't been paid on the last bet, and fear you might not be? ("I'm not betting again until I collect on my last set, if I do at all.") WTF? Explain this, if you don't mind; like I said, I don't bet sports. How does it work that you might not collect? I would assume that had you lost, someone would expect to collect from you, after all.
A falling knife has no handle.
EvenBob
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:10:54 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

We'll never actually know, since all we have to go on is your word.



Boy, look who's making this statement. I could jump all over it would both feet, but what would it prove...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Doc
Doc
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:11:51 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

... BTW, let me get this straight; you haven't been paid on the last bet, and fear you might not be? ("I'm not betting again until I collect on my last set, if I do at all.") WTF? ...

Just in case (1) Jerry is slow to answer and explain and (2) our resident English teacher doesn't comment to explain the various alternative meanings of these words, I'll take my shot -- I interpreted Jerry's "if I do at all" as meaning if he does bet again, perhaps meaning for the rest of the season. But you may have his meaning right; I think his wording is ambiguous.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:22:45 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Boy, look who's making this statement. I could jump all over it would both feet, but what would it prove...



Anybody can claim anything they want on the internet. However, I haven't made any false claims about what I am or what I do. I realize that you're saying that I'm a liar, Bob, but you don't know that one way or the other, so your accusation is kind of stupid; as you say, your accusation doesn't prove diddly.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:27:38 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Wizard, I felt there was more value in betting the OVER than taking Atlanta to cover because of the 2 defensive backs illnesses (and mkl, I don't know if the books knew or not, but I actually kept track of the movement and the line held steady at the point I heard what I heard...do you EVER get anything right??). The Ram's QB seemed very capable of scoring lots of points so that bet was more solid to me than just betting Atlanta.



The fact that the line didn't move didn't mean that the books were UNAWARE of the defensive backs' illnesses, Jerry. It meant that unlike you, they didn't consider it all that significant. Again, please don't put words in my mouth. I never said the line didn't move--I said that it was extremely unlikely that the books were unaware of your "inside information": in other words, your "inside information" was actually common knowledge, and no basis for making a bet at all, since the line obviously took it into account.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
EvenBob
EvenBob
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Anybody can claim anything they want on the internet. However, I haven't made any false claims.



There you go, then. Good enough for me... But please feel free to call out anybody else making claims, they can't all be as honest and up-front as you are. (up-front or up·front (pfrnt) Informal
adj. 1. Straightforward; frank.)
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:34:38 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Just in case (1) Jerry is slow to answer and explain and (2) our resident English teacher doesn't comment to explain the various alternative meanings of these words, I'll take my shot -- I interpreted Jerry's "if I do at all" as meaning if he does bet again, perhaps meaning for the rest of the season. But you may have his meaning right; I think his wording is ambiguous.



Yes, I agree with your interpretation--Jerry stumbled by misplacing his dependent clause. What he meant to say, I believe, was, "I'm not betting again, if I do SO at all, until I collect my PREVIOUS bet." In other words, he needs the cash from his "win" to bet another $110 on the next game.

C minus for Jerry. You would think the King of Trucking would do better in his basic sentence construction :) I wouldn't hire someone who made a basic English error like that on his resume, but I do realize that a lot of people escape high school without such skills. They wouldn't pass MY class without them, though.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
FleaStiff
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:44:42 PM permalink
Taking out all the personal attacks and irrelevant commentary, this post is:

Chicago +3.5 over Philly.

Now I figured out that its Chicago Bears and I was pretty certain that the Philadelphia team is the Eagles, so I looked up one odds site and found:

227 Eagles -3½-110
228 Bears +3½-110
42½ ov-110

So this suggested lock seems to be something that is already being quoted or am I misinterpreting this plus and minus thing.
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:51:40 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Taking out all the personal attacks and irrelevant commentary, this post is:

Chicago +3.5 over Philly.

Now I figured out that its Chicago Bears and I was pretty certain that the Philadelphia team is the Eagles, so I looked up one odds site and found:

227 Eagles -3½-110
228 Bears +3½-110
42½ ov-110

So this suggested lock seems to be something that is already being quoted or am I misinterpreting this plus and minus thing.



Jerry is just saying that he hypothetically would bet one side of the quoted line, i.e., he would bet the Bears and take the 3.5 points. He is boasting that the Bears are a "lock" to cover the spread, which is, of course, nonsense; if they were such a "lock", the line would move to reflect that, making the Bears less of an underdog (+2.5, for example). It's safe to assume that any factor affecting the game will be figured into the line. If, for instance, the Eagles' quarterback were run over by a cement mixer tomorrow morning, the books would adjust the line for that LONG before the guys with "inside information" could rush to the betting windows. In fact, if something major like that happens, the books will often "take the game down"--refuse any additional bets--until the new situation becomes clear and they can put up a new line reflecting what has changed.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:53:55 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Jerry, you may very well have made the bet as you stated. We'll never actually know, since all we have to go on is your word. I also presume you would have told us about the huge bets you LOST in prior weeks--right????

Some people were actually hoping you would behave when you returned from purgatory. We can dream...



I believe with that logic then you also could have added in that the Wizard really gets killed playing live poker because all we have is his "word" to go on that he's doing quite well. He may also not be telling us how much he loses in sports betting.

However, you always tell the truth right, even on the Internet? I mean, you're a winner in video poker who chose to make peanuts teaching instead, right? Did I get that right mkl?? Yoo-hoo....did I get that right?
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 8:59:19 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

(low whistle......) wow. I look for Philly to roll this one, win huge. OTOH, I don't bet sports, so that makes my opinion worth what it cost you to read it.

I await the result with eyebrow raised.

BTW, let me get this straight; you haven't been paid on the last bet, and fear you might not be? ("I'm not betting again until I collect on my last set, if I do at all.") WTF? Explain this, if you don't mind; like I said, I don't bet sports. How does it work that you might not collect? I would assume that had you lost, someone would expect to collect from you, after all.



There's no fear involved. I make very few sports bets in a season, and I only bet again when I collect any winnings. I keep the sports bankroll separate. Since two of my bets last week were made by a friend in Las Vegas and I made 3 of them on-line....and I've been away most of the week, I haven't collected anything as yet. Oh, if I had lost, there's no collection activity since bets are paid for up front. WTF??

Sportsbetting schooling for mkl: It's not easy making over $2000 bets on a game in LV sportsbooks. I don't think they take 25c bets either.
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:03:51 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

The fact that the line didn't move didn't mean that the books were UNAWARE of the defensive backs' illnesses, Jerry. It meant that unlike you, they didn't consider it all that significant. Again, please don't put words in my mouth. I never said the line didn't move--I said that it was extremely unlikely that the books were unaware of your "inside information": in other words, your "inside information" was actually common knowledge, and no basis for making a bet at all, since the line obviously took it into account.



Why don't you just come out and state it instead of radiating jealousy all over the forum. You made this up and you're stumbling around again as usual trying to save face. If a book had the info I did on those 2 def. backs, things would've move. You have no idea what goes on in the sportsbetting world do you.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:04:48 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

I believe with that logic then you also could have added in that the Wizard really gets killed playing live poker because all we have is his "word" to go on that he's doing quite well. He may also not be telling us how much he loses in sports betting.

However, you always tell the truth right, even on the Internet? I mean, you're a winner in video poker who chose to make peanuts teaching instead, right? Did I get that right mkl?? Yoo-hoo....did I get that right?



No, you got that wrong. Very wrong. Of course, you may call what I make--$55,000 for this year--"peanuts", but it's quite a comfortable living for me. Especially since I only work about seven months out of the year.

Yes, I'm a winner at VP. A modest winner. I averaged about $13/hr when I played full-time. I prefer the higher pay of teaching, and it is much less boring than playing advantage video poker.

Of course, I could be making all that up, too--but I can back up what I say with extensive knowledge of the game of video poker and of the English language. Also, I'm unlikely to be "bragging" about what I do and how much I make--it's not particularly impressive what I make, but I AM quite proud of what I do, because I do it well, and I help a lot of people in the process.

Similarly, I believe the Wiz because he is obviously extremely knowledgeable about sports betting, poker, and gambling in general. I find it interesting that the Wiz backs up what I say about video poker, but you aren't inclined to believe him. In any case, you have not shown a similar knowledge or history regarding sports betting--and the fact that you play video poker with such lack of knowledge or success suggests to me that you have no real expertise in the field of sports betting, either. However, I could be wrong. Post your "locks" every week from now through the playoffs, and we'll better be able to evaluate your expertise, or lack thereof.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:07:18 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Why don't you just come out and state it instead of radiating jealousy all over the forum. You made this up and you're stumbling around again as usual trying to save face. If a book had the info I did on those 2 def. backs, things would've move. You have no idea what goes on in the sportsbetting world do you.



That is so funny. YOU knew, and the books didn't. You are the epitome of every "sharpie" who has ever tried to put one over on the sports books.

It is also funny that I could possibly be "jealous" of you. If I woke up one day and found that I shared a single characteristic with you, I would cut my throat.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
EvenBob
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:16:56 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Especially since I only work about seven months out of the year.



Wow, what school district has a 7 month school year? My daughter is a teacher and she gets off the middle of June and goes back the last week of August, thats about 10 weeks off. Yet you get 20 weeks off. You must have really smart kids who skate around the federal requirements for how many days a school year has to be.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:34:02 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

No, you got that wrong. Very wrong. Of course, you may call what I make--$55,000 for this year--"peanuts", but it's quite a comfortable living for me. Especially since I only work about seven months out of the year.

Yes, I'm a winner at VP. A modest winner. I averaged about $13/hr when I played full-time. I prefer the higher pay of teaching, and it is much less boring than playing advantage video poker.

Of course, I could be making all that up, too--but I can back up what I say with extensive knowledge of the game of video poker and of the English language. Also, I'm unlikely to be "bragging" about what I do and how much I make--it's not particularly impressive what I make, but I AM quite proud of what I do, because I do it well, and I help a lot of people in the process.

Similarly, I believe the Wiz because he is obviously extremely knowledgeable about sports betting, poker, and gambling in general. I find it interesting that the Wiz backs up what I say about video poker, but you aren't inclined to believe him. In any case, you have not shown a similar knowledge or history regarding sports betting--and the fact that you play video poker with such lack of knowledge or success suggests to me that you have no real expertise in the field of sports betting, either. However, I could be wrong. Post your "locks" every week from now through the playoffs, and we'll better be able to evaluate your expertise, or lack thereof.



Anyone without a way out would learn to be comfortable with mediocrity. Such pride.......

So what happened to you that you couldn't follow in the footsteps of Bob Dancer? He began at quarters, then he created all sorts of ways to manufacture positive plays, while telling people how he just keeps on winning and climbing in denomination throughout the years! Why, it's downright magical! Oh I forgot, he also still works and sells and teaches and speaks and this and that for money. Hmmm....must be he ain't doing so well at the machines is he! Maybe mkl made the right choice!!
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:37:17 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Wow, what school district has a 7 month school year? My daughter is a teacher and she gets off the middle of June and goes back the last week of August, thats about 10 weeks off. Yet you get 20 weeks off. You must have really smart kids who skate around the federal requirements for how many days a school year has to be.



Let's hope he doesn't cut his throat over THAT one!

I suspect he'll make up something stupid again about how his district has 5 months off, or how he's adding in days off and holidays on one side of the ledger but thinks he's being slick by not accounting for it on the other side. Oh wait....he's an ENGLISH teacher and has no talent in accounting or math. But as is typical here, someone will look up the facts and he'll again be exposed for making it up on the go.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:47:21 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Wow, what school district has a 7 month school year? My daughter is a teacher and she gets off the middle of June and goes back the last week of August, thats about 10 weeks off. Yet you get 20 weeks off. You must have really smart kids who skate around the federal requirements for how many days a school year has to be.



Nope. I work 152 days out of the year. The minimum federal requirement for school days in a calendar year is 177. There are 22 work days in the average month. 7 x 22=154. Our school calendar is 179 days, but I have entered into a voluntary agreement to take most Fridays off, in order to prevent teacher layoffs. I still make the same amount of money on a per diem basis. I get paid for all but 9 of those layoff days, per union agreement.

I'd explain it in more detail, but I doubt that you really care about it one way or another.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:49:53 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Let's hope he doesn't cut his throat over THAT one!

I suspect he'll make up something stupid again about how his district has 5 months off, or how he's adding in days off and holidays on one side of the ledger but thinks he's being slick by not accounting for it on the other side. Oh wait....he's an ENGLISH teacher and has no talent in accounting or math. But as is typical here, someone will look up the facts and he'll again be exposed for making it up on the go.



I provided an explanation, but feel free to crap all over it. I would be working eight months of the year if not for voluntary layoff days.

No one can "look up the facts" unless they actually know where I teach.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:51:41 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Anyone without a way out would learn to be comfortable with mediocrity. Such pride.......

So what happened to you that you couldn't follow in the footsteps of Bob Dancer? He began at quarters, then he created all sorts of ways to manufacture positive plays, while telling people how he just keeps on winning and climbing in denomination throughout the years! Why, it's downright magical! Oh I forgot, he also still works and sells and teaches and speaks and this and that for money. Hmmm....must be he ain't doing so well at the machines is he! Maybe mkl made the right choice!!



Dancer may or may not have made as much as he says he has. Just like you may or may not have made, or won, that football bet. And you may, or may not, work for a trucking company. And your name may, or may not, be Jerry Logan.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 9:53:37 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I provided an explanation, but feel free to crap all over it. I would be working eight months of the year if not for voluntary layoff days.

No one can "look up the facts" unless they actually know where I teach.



"Voluntary layoff days" and asserting "an explanation was provided". However, for some reason it's a mystery.

I guess in that district the kids come in and play tiddly-winks since the teachers just aren't coming in today because of a "voluntary layoff!!!"

All this, from someone who always tells the truth about himself on the Internet!
EvenBob
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November 26th, 2010 at 10:03:39 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

I'd explain it in more detail, but I doubt that you really care about it one way or another.



LOL! By your calculations then, my wife works 7.5 months a year, even though she's there 50 weeks. Who talks like that, why make everything so confusing?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 10:07:11 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

"Voluntary layoff days" and asserting "an explanation was provided". However, for some reason it's a mystery.

I guess in that district the kids come in and play tiddly-winks since the teachers just aren't coming in today because of a "voluntary layoff!!!"

All this, from someone who always tells the truth about himself on the Internet!



Yes, Jerry.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 10:11:51 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

LOL! By your calculations then, my wife works 7.5 months a year, even though she's there 50 weeks. Who talks like that, why make everything so confusing?



Your wife doesn't take any summer vacation? She's there 50 weeks? LOL! (as you are so very, very, very fond of saying)

We have a long Xmas break, and we're off most of June, all of July and August, and a portion of September. I also have about two dozen Fridays off in total (the exact amount depends on whether someone calls in sick, then I cover). I actually could work more hours, but I wouldn't get paid very much more (we're technically salaried).
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
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November 26th, 2010 at 10:22:32 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

LOL! By your calculations then, my wife works 7.5 months a year, even though she's there 50 weeks. Who talks like that, why make everything so confusing?



Ha! He got caught again and digs his own grave. Let's leave it at that.
Martin
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November 26th, 2010 at 10:57:22 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan


Chicago +3.5 over Philly.



The money line believes that Philly is about a 66% favorite and Chi is about a 36% dog. Given the player personnel and match ups I could not say that Chi is a "lock."

But if you think it is then find a money line to bet getting 175 on Chi and take the odds straight up without a spread.

Given the quarterbacks, I think going with the over at 42.5 is a better bet.

This is my opinion only - not an invitation to gamble.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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November 26th, 2010 at 11:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Your wife doesn't take any summer vacation? She's there 50 weeks?



2 weeks off in Oct. Yup, she's there 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year, with a couple holidays here and there. Strange, huh. But from now on I'll tell to say she works 7.5 months, people will understand. Actually, she works about 2000 hours a year, thats 2.7 months. Even better.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 11:33:48 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Ha! He got caught again and digs his own grave. Let's leave it at that.



Yes, Jerry.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 26th, 2010 at 11:40:00 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

2 weeks off in Oct. Yup, she's there 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year, with a couple holidays here and there. Strange, huh. But from now on I'll tell to say she works 7.5 months, people will understand. Actually, she works about 2000 hours a year, thats 2.7 months. Even better.



Yes, Bob.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
thecesspit
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November 26th, 2010 at 11:47:59 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

No. Bet the farm and daughter. I'm not betting again until I collect on my last set, if I do at all.

Maybe I should become a handicapper.



How do I follow your lead if your NOT betting it? Really, Jerry.... really.

I don't have a farm or a daughter, anyways.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
FleaStiff
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November 27th, 2010 at 12:14:49 AM permalink
I don't think there was any indication of why this was thought to be a lock. I was just pointing out that if these figures were already being quoted as "the odds" on that game, then it would probably not be much of a lock since it seems to be an opinion shared by many.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 27th, 2010 at 12:34:35 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I don't think there was any indication of why this was thought to be a lock. I was just pointing out that if these figures were already being quoted as "the odds" on that game, then it would probably not be much of a lock since it seems to be an opinion shared by many.



The "why" is that he wants to be able to crow like a rooster if the Bears do, in fact, cover. Really, what other reason could he have to share his wisdom with us?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
thecesspit
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November 27th, 2010 at 12:42:09 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I don't think there was any indication of why this was thought to be a lock. I was just pointing out that if these figures were already being quoted as "the odds" on that game, then it would probably not be much of a lock since it seems to be an opinion shared by many.



A lock is given when someone wants to say "this side of the bet is the one to take", not what the line should be. The Bookies hope that the opinion is taken by about half the betting money so they can get both sides (*). Those proclaiming a lock think it's -definite- (**) that the game will be win for the Bears with the points.

I don't think it's a "lock", but I do think the better side is the +3.5 Bears.

By-the-way, Jerry's 1-1 for on his statements on football this season. This better than my record.

(*) Not exactly true, as I understand it, as some books will take an uneven line if they think they are getting the best of it.
(**) I'm never sure what confidence a Lock actually means. In Jerry's case, not dumping anything on it after a nice touch last week means it's a Lock in theory. Results matter, right? :)
(***) Now that work databases have stopped churning, I can go to bed and stop arguing the toss with people on things that don't matter too much.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
mkl654321
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November 27th, 2010 at 12:56:19 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

A lock is given when someone wants to say "this side of the bet is the one to take", not what the line should be. The Bookies hope that the opinion is taken by about half the betting money so they can get both sides (*). Those proclaiming a lock think it's -definite- (**) that the game will be win for the Bears with the points.

I don't think it's a "lock", but I do think the better side is the +3.5 Bears.



If Jerry doesn't immediately turn around and parlay the proceeds from his last week's bet, and put it all on the Bears, that means that he's full of it when he calls the Bears a "Rock-Solid Lock", as in, he doesn't even believe it himself. After all, if you KNEW the outcome of a future game, wouldn't you bet everything you had on it, with the certainty of winning? Isn't that what "Rock-Solid Lock" means?

Or....is it all hot air?

Of course, if the Bears DO cover, Jerry will probably then tell us about the call to his bookie he made five minutes before kickoff...
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
SOOPOO
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November 27th, 2010 at 4:46:00 AM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan



Sportsbetting schooling for mkl: It's not easy making over $2000 bets on a game in LV sportsbooks. I don't think they take 25c bets either.



Is this true? If I walked up to the MGM sportsbook with $5000 in cash and said i wanted the Bears plus 3 1/2 they would not take that action?
For major sporting events, does anyone know how much a book will take from a single bet?
mkl654321
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November 27th, 2010 at 5:00:49 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Is this true? If I walked up to the MGM sportsbook with $5000 in cash and said i wanted the Bears plus 3 1/2 they would not take that action?
For major sporting events, does anyone know how much a book will take from a single bet?



Anything under $10K will be accepted with a smile at any major book. Some of the smaller books have a limit of $5K. None has a limit so small as $2K, except perhaps a satellite book,
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Mosca
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November 27th, 2010 at 5:20:51 AM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

There's no fear involved. I make very few sports bets in a season, and I only bet again when I collect any winnings. I keep the sports bankroll separate. Since two of my bets last week were made by a friend in Las Vegas and I made 3 of them on-line....and I've been away most of the week, I haven't collected anything as yet. Oh, if I had lost, there's no collection activity since bets are paid for up front. WTF??

Sportsbetting schooling for mkl: It's not easy making over $2000 bets on a game in LV sportsbooks. I don't think they take 25c bets either.



Thanks for the clarification, I think Doc had the right explanation, that your statement "if I do at all" modified the "I'm not betting again", not the "until I collect". As I said, I don't bet sports, so anything I write is worth what it cost to read. Thanks.
A falling knife has no handle.
Mosca
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November 27th, 2010 at 5:24:22 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit


I don't think it's a "lock", but I do think the better side is the +3.5 Bears.



Geez. Now see, my feeling is that the Bears aren't really all that good, and that the Eagles really are that good, and I figure the Eagles to win by about 14. But since I'm not betting.....
A falling knife has no handle.
Martin
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November 27th, 2010 at 6:04:09 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Is this true? If I walked up to the MGM sportsbook with $5000 in cash and said i wanted the Bears plus 3 1/2 they would not take that action?
For major sporting events, does anyone know how much a book will take from a single bet?



The major books will take 5K on an NFL game - maybe not on Mother Teresa's School for the Blind and Gifted vs Little Willies Day Care and Detail Shop. But even if you were turned away what difference does it make? Take a 15 minute walk and bet $1000 at 5 different sports books.
JerryLogan
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November 27th, 2010 at 8:21:23 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

The major books will take 5K on an NFL game - maybe not on Mother Teresa's School for the Blind and Gifted vs Little Willies Day Care and Detail Shop. But even if you were turned away what difference does it make? Take a 15 minute walk and bet $1000 at 5 different sports books.



I tried to make a $4000 bet at Sam's Town last year on a New Orleans game. They refused and told me there was a $2k limit. So rather than mkl making believe he knows everything again while never making such bets, I hope you have actual experience as I do. But I have not personally made bets at many of the "big" books. Do you consider Sam's Town a major book?
Martin
Martin
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November 27th, 2010 at 8:43:30 AM permalink
I consider Sam's Town a "local's" casino - I like the place but I doubt it can afford large action or a single large loss - take yourself over to Caesars or similar. You can find four or five books within 15 minutes of there that will take all of the action you want.

I used to be a sports bettor - but after too many bad beats in the last quarter, last inning, last round I just gave it up. Also it seems as if you have to spend most of your time studying because lines these days are just too tight. When I do play now I mostly go for small parlays, teaser's, over/under, or, my personal favorite, the money line straight up (no points) mostly on a strong dog - the sort of low rent crap that keeps a body interested.
teddys
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November 27th, 2010 at 10:44:54 AM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

I tried to make a $4000 bet at Sam's Town last year on a New Orleans game. They refused and told me there was a $2k limit. So rather than mkl making believe he knows everything again while never making such bets, I hope you have actual experience as I do. But I have not personally made bets at many of the "big" books. Do you consider Sam's Town a major book?

Considering Sam's Town is linked in with all the other Boyd casinos (all nine of them), yes, I would definitely consider it a major book. There are really only a few big books in Vegas, which all use the same line across their properties: MGM, Harrah's, Boyd, Stations, Cal-Neva, Leroy's, and South Point. Then you have the other independent books like Venetian, Wynn and Hilton that are also "major." The rest are minnows.

See here: https://wizardofodds.com/sports/sports_apx3.html
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
JerryLogan
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November 27th, 2010 at 11:03:32 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

I consider Sam's Town a "local's" casino - I like the place but I doubt it can afford large action or a single large loss - take yourself over to Caesars or similar. You can find four or five books within 15 minutes of there that will take all of the action you want.

I used to be a sports bettor - but after too many bad beats in the last quarter, last inning, last round I just gave it up. Also it seems as if you have to spend most of your time studying because lines these days are just too tight. When I do play now I mostly go for small parlays, teaser's, over/under, or, my personal favorite, the money line straight up (no points) mostly on a strong dog - the sort of low rent crap that keeps a body interested.



OK. But I couldn't have made my $10k bet at a single casino anyway because I had a friend in Las Vegas make two $2000 bets for me after transferring my bank's max. amount to his. I'm not a big sportsbettor so it's not likely to happen again anyway.

BUT, for mkl and any other complainer that wonders why I did not bet the Chicago-Philly game: I checked and found my on-line wagers have been paid and are in my account. So I made a $1500 bet on Chicago when I really wasn't going to bet it. I am that sure it's a sure thing, but if I lose then I'm blaming 3 or 4 posters. I could also thank them if I win, but they ain't gonna get that.
Doc
Doc
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November 27th, 2010 at 11:51:28 AM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

... But I couldn't have made my $10k bet at a single casino anyway because I had a friend in Las Vegas make two $2000 bets for me after transferring my bank's max. amount to his. ...

Off-topic question: What kind of (USA) bank limits how much of your money you can transfer elsewhere? And why? I know I have made a number of out-of-bank transfers larger than you are talking about using my BoA accounts. Recently they have, indeed, established a SafePass procedure that limits on-line transfers unless you take a couple of simple steps that assure you are not becoming a victim of on-line fraud, but I have never had them get in the way of legitimate financial transactions. Just curious about what you are encountering with your bank.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 27th, 2010 at 12:00:28 PM permalink
M and T bank. No problems with transfers approaching 30k. To a college... for just one semester... Talk about negative EV....
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