Contending in Offshore Contests

For those with Northbet accounts, I'm currently sitting tied for eighth in their no-spread NFL contest. In another offshore contest that incorporates totals with no-spread NFL, I'm tied for 17th out of a couple thousand. I think any account holder can access the Northbet standings. Usually when I get myself into contention, I tend to hang around like a dog with a bone, so we'll see. I won the contest that incorporates totals about five years ago.

After the Monday games, tied for eighth in both contests. Very difficult to cash, much less win, these contests, but always enjoyable to compete when you're on the leaderboards.

I have done the worst job I have done in decades picking non-spread winners in the NFL. I have been horrendous. Having said that, I find myself tied for 11th in the Northbet contest heading into this week and tied for 34th (out of a couple thousand) in the other.

Now, if anyone is following my selections, I have a caveat. Since Northbet pays only the top three, at some point I am going to have to start stepping out and trying to take some underdogs that I really do not think are 50/50 to win their games. I may start this week. So bear in mind that I am trying to make up ground since there is no reward for simply doing a good job.

I have managed to hang around the leaderboard as usual, so we'll see how it goes this week. It's possible (as in Green Bay vs. the Colts) that I may actually take different teams in different contests, so if you're following, don't be confused by that. I'm doing it purposefully.

With one week to go in the NFL season, here's how things turned out:

1) Northbet contest. No spread NFL. Three months later, still tied for eighth. Leader has 167 wins. I have 162.
2) Heritage contest. No spread NFL plus totals. Best 10 weeks count. Tied for 19th. I have 141 points. Leader has 144.
3) You Wager NFL contest. Normally, I do not play NFL contests, but this one allowed zero to six plays per week, no minimum. That appealed to me. Current score of 17 (17 games above .500). Tied for ninth. Only 285 entrants. Leader has a phenomenal 28.

And finally, an homage to Rob Singer, who likes to tout the fact he was an (unpaid) columnist for Gaming Today. I decided to enter their free contest for the masses just to get a dig in if I could make the leaderboard. Not easy to do with 20K or more entries. With one week to go, tied for ninth (no Thursday games).

That's it. I'm sure some posters who are, shall we say, a tad anti-AP, will check up on these standings. And then will have nothing to say.

Have a good one.

Sorry, but we only acknowledge and recognize current winners who take first place. Anything short of first place is the same as an unintentional last place.

Did I tell you about the time someone was selling 12 BTC @ $720 a coin (a $6 discount per coin) I wanted it for $710 a per coin and the deal didn't go through.

Quote: AxelWolf

Sorry, but we only acknowledge and recognize current winners who take first place. Anything short of first place is the same as an unintentional last place.

Did I tell you about the time someone was selling 12 BTC @ $720 a coin (a $6 discount per coin) I wanted it for $710 a per coin and the deal didn't go through.

Understood.

About 10 years ago, I was in a public handicapping contest online sponsored by one of Marc Lawrence's associates. I won 17 games in a row (no foolin'), went 66-34 ATS, and finished second! I wrote some online articles after I'd won 13 in a row and compared the odds of what I was doing to various actuarial odds. It turned out that winning 17 in a row was as likely as "death by reptile."

The guy who beat me was absolutely unconscious in Pac 12 and Mountain West totals.

Anyway, the point is, second got nothing. It was winner take all.

Quote: redietz

Understood.

About 10 years ago, I was in a public handicapping contest online sponsored by one of Marc Lawrence's associates. I won 17 games in a row (no foolin'), went 66-34 ATS, and finished second! I wrote some online articles after I'd won 13 in a row and compared the odds of what I was doing to various actuarial odds. It turned out that winning 17 in a row was as likely as "death by reptile."

The guy who beat me was absolutely unconscious in Pac 12 and Mountain West totals.

Anyway, the point is, second got nothing. It was winner take all.

I think your result is great. You may not have won the contest but if you hit 66% on your picks you must have made money on your regular bets, assuming you make them.

What would you say your career percentage is on even money picks is? Such as NFL or college football where you would need to pay a -110 vig?

Quote: SOOPOO

I think your result is great. You may not have won the contest but if you hit 66% on your picks you must have made money on your regular bets, assuming you make them.

What would you say your career percentage is on even money picks is? Such as NFL or college football where you would need to pay a -110 vig?

It's hard to evaluate any sports gambler based on raw percentages, simply because other elements (middles shooting, futures, etc.) enter into it. Plus you have no sense when someone is a specialist, because an overall percent tells you very little . For example, well over 80% of what I wager volume-wise, is college football, so an NFL percent doesn't tell you much. Also, this year for example, I have more on teasers in the NFL than on straight plays.

Having said that, my lifetime college football is about 57%. My NFL is much lower, around 54%. That really doesn't tell you much either, though, as only about half my wagers are at -110. I routinely am playing -108 and a fraction at -105.

Big players like Billy Walters and various cartels have negotiated -105 as their staple.

Where people get in trouble, even gifted expert savants, is when they step outside their fields of expertise. Myths and illusions aside, there are no expert "sports gamblers" just like there are no MDs who deliver children, research infectious diseases, and perform brain surgery.

Quote: redietz

Understood.

About 10 years ago, I was in a public handicapping contest online sponsored by one of Marc Lawrence's associates. I won 17 games in a row (no foolin'), went 66-34 ATS, and finished second! I wrote some online articles after I'd won 13 in a row and compared the odds of what I was doing to various actuarial odds. It turned out that winning 17 in a row was as likely as "death by reptile."

The guy who beat me was absolutely unconscious in Pac 12 and Mountain West totals.

Anyway, the point is, second got nothing. It was winner take all.

In the 90's I won a weekly football contest for 10k, it was the first one I ever entered and there were thousands of entries I had a perfect no spread picks week, including tie breakers. Then I turned around the next week and got 2nd(5k-7k, I can't recall the exact amount now). I should have gotten first but my friend who I had fill out the entry mixed up the over and unders on the tiebreakers from what I told him to pick.

Before that, I hit an 8 team parlay 2 times it was only my 6th and 12th football bets I ever made. I had only been watching/listening to football for one season since I disliked watching football until I was 20.

I did well betting football in the 90's, but my biggest bet was 3k and that was abnormally high for me normally 200 to 1k. I wasn't looking at stats, getting weather reports, using computers or anything other than simply watching the games and believing the spread was wrong.

Perhaps I was a football servant, OR I was just super lucky. I wasn't willing to go all crazy betting only to find out it was just positive variance.

I don't believe people can beat football by purely handicapping. Rigondeaux wrote some good stuff regarding touts and whatnot.

I'm going to point out a key and common "error in language" in the post above. A thing called "football" as an overall sport does not really exist. The NFL and college football are as different as curling and tennis. The XFL is its own thing. Canadian football (which, by the way, Jimmy JJ Walker was very good at) is its own thing. There is no overarching set of strategies or principles for wagering on something called "football."

Having said that, people do win at college football. Not many, but some. People do win at college hoops (I rarely bet college hoops other than futures). Those two sports can be beaten. The others are different things, and I haven't seen anyone beat other team sports long-term, and by long-term, I mean a decade or more. Unless you're talking about people who rely primarily on middle shooting and arbitrage. Then the other sports can be tackled, but it requires literal 24/7 commitment.

I do know people who have beaten non-team sports.

Frankly, what I do for 100 days, I could not do for 365 even if I knew how.

I agree with REDIETZ. I don't think anyone is beating NFL sides regularly.

Quote: DRich

I agree with REDIETZ. I don't think anyone is beating NFL sides regularly.

The majority of my "54% ballpark" NFL handicapping has been totals. Even someone like Fezzik, who was magnificent back-to-back years in the SuperContest, was forced to publicly "retire" for reasons I know, will not detail, and readers may possibly surmise. Like Hellmuth in poker, some people are psychologically and pragmatically expert at tournaments. Some people are built for actual cash games.

If you have followed the overall record in the SuperContest for years, you know the consensus plays have not exactly kicked ass.

Final tallies:

1) Northbet -- No Spread NFL -- tied for sixth.
2) Heritage -- No Spread NFL plus NFL totals -- tied for sixth.
3) YouWager -- NFL spread -- eighth out of 283.
4) Gaming Today -- No Spread NFL -- my homage to Rob Singer, especially since there were thousands of entries. Tied for sixth.

Not too shabby.

Stay safe. Enjoy the offseason.

Quote: redietz

Final tallies:

1) Northbet -- No Spread NFL -- tied for sixth.
2) Heritage -- No Spread NFL plus NFL totals -- tied for sixth.
3) YouWager -- NFL spread -- eighth out of 283.
4) Gaming Today -- No Spread NFL -- my homage to Rob Singer, especially since there were thousands of entries. Tied for sixth.

Not too shabby.

Stay safe. Enjoy the offseason.

How much money did all that net you?

(Note -- This is a quick analysis of the posts of the forum's second most prolific poster. You might learn something.)

Interesting and fairly irrelevant question, Axel. I suspect you know the answer The answer is not much. Now, what I find interesting, going back over your posts here, is that you consistently try to one up anyone who claims expertise on this board. Go ahead and read your own posts. That's a main theme. You did this and you did that.

You mention you won a weekly prize in a non-spread contest as some kind of response to my posts. LOL. Do you know how many of those I have won in my lifetime? Jesus, man, my girlfriend won a house in the Palace Station contest moons ago. Did I mention these things? No, they are irrelevant to 2020 contest results.

So the answer to how much the 2020 contests netted me is, not much. That's like asking an Olympic athlete how much money he won by running a four minute mile.

Now an appropriate question might have been, "You did great in those contests, but did you actually win money this year?" But you chose to not ask that. And you probably knew the answer to that. The answer would be unequivocally yes, and if A&M makes the college playoff, I make a lot more. I won 13 out of 17 weeks, which included a half-bet deficit last week but with an open teaser for the playoffs.

Note I did not mention the winning-for-the-season, as it was irrelevant to the contest results. Entering contests is part of the decision-making gestalt that contributes to winning for the season.

Axel, you should self-scout your own writing. You come across as needing to be spotlighted as some Yoda of the gambling boards. Yoda you ain't. This AP thing -- honestly, it's dwarfed by sports betting. It's like comparing a mom and pop coffee shop to a chain of steakhouses. The scale is different. The future of both is different.
What yanks my chain is that, generally, I'm too polite to mention that APing is like learning parlor room magic tricks whose tech is going to soon be outlawed and sports betting is not. I respect immensely what Axel and mickeycrimm and so on have done. But no, Axel gotta take a shot at denigrating contest results. It's not like my 2020 contest results are spectacular for me. They are not. They're solid. Without the mental mechanics of contests, do I win 13 out of 17 weeks? Maybe not. It's all, as they say, a tapestry.

Get some couth, man. Some class. You keep trying to come across as a jack of all gambling trades, with something to say about every aspect of gambling. That's how you wind up with 18,000 posts.

And Axel, how much money did your 18,000 WoV posts net you?

Quote: redietz

(Note -- This is a quick analysis of the posts of the forum's second most prolific poster. You might learn something.)

Interesting and fairly irrelevant question, Axel. I suspect you know the answer The answer is not much. Now, what I find interesting, going back over your posts here, is that you consistently try to one up anyone who claims expertise on this board. Go ahead and read your own posts. That's a main theme. You did this and you did that.

You mention you won a weekly prize in a non-spread contest as some kind of response to my posts. LOL. Do you know how many of those I have won in my lifetime? Jesus, man, my girlfriend won a house in the Palace Station contest moons ago. Did I mention these things? No, they are irrelevant to 2020 contest results.

So the answer to how much the 2020 contests netted me is, not much. That's like asking an Olympic athlete how much money he won by running a four minute mile.

Now an appropriate question might have been, "You did great in those contests, but did you actually win money this year?" But you chose to not ask that. And you probably knew the answer to that. The answer would be unequivocally yes, and if A&M makes the college playoff, I make a lot more. I won 13 out of 17 weeks, which included a half-bet deficit last week but with an open teaser for the playoffs.

Note I did not mention the winning-for-the-season, as it was irrelevant to the contest results. Entering contests is part of the decision-making gestalt that contributes to winning for the season.

Axel, you should self-scout your own writing. You come across as needing to be spotlighted as some Yoda of the gambling boards. Yoda you ain't. This AP thing -- honestly, it's dwarfed by sports betting. It's like comparing a mom and pop coffee shop to a chain of steakhouses. The scale is different. The future of both is different.
What yanks my chain is that, generally, I'm too polite to mention that APing is like learning parlor room magic tricks whose tech is going to soon be outlawed and sports betting is not. I respect immensely what Axel and mickeycrimm and so on have done. But no, Axel gotta take a shot at denigrating contest results. It's not like my 2020 contest results are spectacular for me. They are not. They're solid. Without the mental mechanics of contests, do I win 13 out of 17 weeks? Maybe not. It's all, as they say, a tapestry.

Get some couth, man. Some class. You keep trying to come across as a jack of all gambling trades, with something to say about every aspect of gambling. That's how you wind up with 18,000 posts.

And Axel, how much money did your 18,000 WoV posts net you?

A tad bitter today, red? I can tell you that Axel has made friends (me included) from his WoV postings. I can also tell you he has made money from associations that started here on WoV. I can assure you he won't divulge how much and through who.

As far as your snotty nose looking down on the type of AP stuff he does, well, you are probably right that there is more money to be made in sports betting than machine AP/card counting/comp hustling etc... SO FREAKING WHAT? Your sports betting scheme makes a fraction of a percent of what a stock market guy can make. I am SURE what I made in the market last year DWARFS what you made betting sports. BIG FREAKING DEAL. My success does not in ANY WAY mean that your great sports betting picks is not impressive. I think somewhere down thread I did compliment you. Just like I compliment Axel on his AP stuff.

You BOTH are valuable to this forum, in different areas. No reason for us to need to see "who's is bigger'!

Quote: redietz

(Note -- This is a quick analysis of the posts of the forum's second most prolific poster. You might learn something.)

Interesting and fairly irrelevant question, Axel. I suspect you know the answer The answer is not much. Now, what I find interesting, going back over your posts here, is that you consistently try to one up anyone who claims expertise on this board. Go ahead and read your own posts. That's a main theme. You did this and you did that.

You mention you won a weekly prize in a non-spread contest as some kind of response to my posts. LOL. Do you know how many of those I have won in my lifetime? Jesus, man, my girlfriend won a house in the Palace Station contest moons ago. Did I mention these things? No, they are irrelevant to 2020 contest results.

So the answer to how much the 2020 contests netted me is, not much. That's like asking an Olympic athlete how much money he won by running a four minute mile.

Now an appropriate question might have been, "You did great in those contests, but did you actually win money this year?" But you chose to not ask that. And you probably knew the answer to that. The answer would be unequivocally yes, and if A&M makes the college playoff, I make a lot more. I won 13 out of 17 weeks, which included a half-bet deficit last week but with an open teaser for the playoffs.

Note I did not mention the winning-for-the-season, as it was irrelevant to the contest results. Entering contests is part of the decision-making gestalt that contributes to winning for the season.

Axel, you should self-scout your own writing. You come across as needing to be spotlighted as some Yoda of the gambling boards. Yoda you ain't. This AP thing -- honestly, it's dwarfed by sports betting. It's like comparing a mom and pop coffee shop to a chain of steakhouses. The scale is different. The future of both is different.
What yanks my chain is that, generally, I'm too polite to mention that APing is like learning parlor room magic tricks whose tech is going to soon be outlawed and sports betting is not. I respect immensely what Axel and mickeycrimm and so on have done. But no, Axel gotta take a shot at denigrating contest results. It's not like my 2020 contest results are spectacular for me. They are not. They're solid. Without the mental mechanics of contests, do I win 13 out of 17 weeks? Maybe not. It's all, as they say, a tapestry.

Get some couth, man. Some class. You keep trying to come across as a jack of all gambling trades, with something to say about every aspect of gambling. That's how you wind up with 18,000 posts.

And Axel, how much money did your 18,000 WoV posts net you?

I actually didn't know if you get something for the other places or not, I don't pay all that much attention to contestes. since you said Not much, I assume you did make something? Oftentimes in poker we see that people place in the money in a few events i'm always wondering just how many events they entered and what their actual profit was. I'm sorry you took it as a flippant comment. But hey I gave you a lead in so now you can tell us how much money you made for the season without coming off as bragging.

You asked how much has my 18k posts made me? WAY MORE THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE(PRICELESS)... both personally and financially. This site is directly responsible for getting solid information and making solid contacts, meeting some really good trustworthy people, people who I'm now friends and partners with, some whom I have done business with, or just people I'm friends with and I like(For example, ZenKing). people I would have never meet if not for posting here.

There's been some really fun times with many of the people I have meet from this forum. I'm actually just about to go hang out and chill with some guys I meet here on the forum that are in town. I don't discriminate just because one of them probably likes trannys. (-:

My experiences and the people I have meet directly related to my posting on this site is worth more than a million dollars to me.