redietz
redietz
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October 5th, 2020 at 6:31:44 AM permalink
For those with Northbet accounts, I'm currently sitting tied for eighth in their no-spread NFL contest. In another offshore contest that incorporates totals with no-spread NFL, I'm tied for 17th out of a couple thousand. I think any account holder can access the Northbet standings. Usually when I get myself into contention, I tend to hang around like a dog with a bone, so we'll see. I won the contest that incorporates totals about five years ago.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
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October 6th, 2020 at 7:22:41 AM permalink
After the Monday games, tied for eighth in both contests. Very difficult to cash, much less win, these contests, but always enjoyable to compete when you're on the leaderboards.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
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November 19th, 2020 at 1:13:45 PM permalink
I have done the worst job I have done in decades picking non-spread winners in the NFL. I have been horrendous. Having said that, I find myself tied for 11th in the Northbet contest heading into this week and tied for 34th (out of a couple thousand) in the other.

Now, if anyone is following my selections, I have a caveat. Since Northbet pays only the top three, at some point I am going to have to start stepping out and trying to take some underdogs that I really do not think are 50/50 to win their games. I may start this week. So bear in mind that I am trying to make up ground since there is no reward for simply doing a good job.

I have managed to hang around the leaderboard as usual, so we'll see how it goes this week. It's possible (as in Green Bay vs. the Colts) that I may actually take different teams in different contests, so if you're following, don't be confused by that. I'm doing it purposefully.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
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December 29th, 2020 at 5:12:50 PM permalink
With one week to go in the NFL season, here's how things turned out:

1) Northbet contest. No spread NFL. Three months later, still tied for eighth. Leader has 167 wins. I have 162.
2) Heritage contest. No spread NFL plus totals. Best 10 weeks count. Tied for 19th. I have 141 points. Leader has 144.
3) You Wager NFL contest. Normally, I do not play NFL contests, but this one allowed zero to six plays per week, no minimum. That appealed to me. Current score of 17 (17 games above .500). Tied for ninth. Only 285 entrants. Leader has a phenomenal 28.

And finally, an homage to Rob Singer, who likes to tout the fact he was an (unpaid) columnist for Gaming Today. I decided to enter their free contest for the masses just to get a dig in if I could make the leaderboard. Not easy to do with 20K or more entries. With one week to go, tied for ninth (no Thursday games).

That's it. I'm sure some posters who are, shall we say, a tad anti-AP, will check up on these standings. And then will have nothing to say.

Have a good one.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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RogerKint
December 30th, 2020 at 1:15:07 AM permalink
Sorry, but we only acknowledge and recognize current winners who take first place. Anything short of first place is the same as an unintentional last place.

Did I tell you about the time someone was selling 12 BTC @ $720 a coin (a $6 discount per coin) I wanted it for $710 a per coin and the deal didn't go through.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
redietz
redietz
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December 30th, 2020 at 6:58:55 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Sorry, but we only acknowledge and recognize current winners who take first place. Anything short of first place is the same as an unintentional last place.

Did I tell you about the time someone was selling 12 BTC @ $720 a coin (a $6 discount per coin) I wanted it for $710 a per coin and the deal didn't go through.



Understood.

About 10 years ago, I was in a public handicapping contest online sponsored by one of Marc Lawrence's associates. I won 17 games in a row (no foolin'), went 66-34 ATS, and finished second! I wrote some online articles after I'd won 13 in a row and compared the odds of what I was doing to various actuarial odds. It turned out that winning 17 in a row was as likely as "death by reptile."

The guy who beat me was absolutely unconscious in Pac 12 and Mountain West totals.

Anyway, the point is, second got nothing. It was winner take all.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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December 30th, 2020 at 7:24:40 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

Understood.

About 10 years ago, I was in a public handicapping contest online sponsored by one of Marc Lawrence's associates. I won 17 games in a row (no foolin'), went 66-34 ATS, and finished second! I wrote some online articles after I'd won 13 in a row and compared the odds of what I was doing to various actuarial odds. It turned out that winning 17 in a row was as likely as "death by reptile."

The guy who beat me was absolutely unconscious in Pac 12 and Mountain West totals.

Anyway, the point is, second got nothing. It was winner take all.



I think your result is great. You may not have won the contest but if you hit 66% on your picks you must have made money on your regular bets, assuming you make them.

What would you say your career percentage is on even money picks is? Such as NFL or college football where you would need to pay a -110 vig?
redietz
redietz
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December 30th, 2020 at 11:05:50 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think your result is great. You may not have won the contest but if you hit 66% on your picks you must have made money on your regular bets, assuming you make them.

What would you say your career percentage is on even money picks is? Such as NFL or college football where you would need to pay a -110 vig?



It's hard to evaluate any sports gambler based on raw percentages, simply because other elements (middles shooting, futures, etc.) enter into it. Plus you have no sense when someone is a specialist, because an overall percent tells you very little . For example, well over 80% of what I wager volume-wise, is college football, so an NFL percent doesn't tell you much. Also, this year for example, I have more on teasers in the NFL than on straight plays.

Having said that, my lifetime college football is about 57%. My NFL is much lower, around 54%. That really doesn't tell you much either, though, as only about half my wagers are at -110. I routinely am playing -108 and a fraction at -105.

Big players like Billy Walters and various cartels have negotiated -105 as their staple.

Where people get in trouble, even gifted expert savants, is when they step outside their fields of expertise. Myths and illusions aside, there are no expert "sports gamblers" just like there are no MDs who deliver children, research infectious diseases, and perform brain surgery.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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RogerKint
December 30th, 2020 at 4:18:11 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Understood.

About 10 years ago, I was in a public handicapping contest online sponsored by one of Marc Lawrence's associates. I won 17 games in a row (no foolin'), went 66-34 ATS, and finished second! I wrote some online articles after I'd won 13 in a row and compared the odds of what I was doing to various actuarial odds. It turned out that winning 17 in a row was as likely as "death by reptile."

The guy who beat me was absolutely unconscious in Pac 12 and Mountain West totals.

Anyway, the point is, second got nothing. It was winner take all.

In the 90's I won a weekly football contest for 10k, it was the first one I ever entered and there were thousands of entries I had a perfect no spread picks week, including tie breakers. Then I turned around the next week and got 2nd(5k-7k, I can't recall the exact amount now). I should have gotten first but my friend who I had fill out the entry mixed up the over and unders on the tiebreakers from what I told him to pick.

Before that, I hit an 8 team parlay 2 times it was only my 6th and 12th football bets I ever made. I had only been watching/listening to football for one season since I disliked watching football until I was 20.

I did well betting football in the 90's, but my biggest bet was 3k and that was abnormally high for me normally 200 to 1k. I wasn't looking at stats, getting weather reports, using computers or anything other than simply watching the games and believing the spread was wrong.

Perhaps I was a football servant, OR I was just super lucky. I wasn't willing to go all crazy betting only to find out it was just positive variance.

I don't believe people can beat football by purely handicapping. Rigondeaux wrote some good stuff regarding touts and whatnot.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
redietz
redietz
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December 30th, 2020 at 5:13:39 PM permalink
I'm going to point out a key and common "error in language" in the post above. A thing called "football" as an overall sport does not really exist. The NFL and college football are as different as curling and tennis. The XFL is its own thing. Canadian football (which, by the way, Jimmy JJ Walker was very good at) is its own thing. There is no overarching set of strategies or principles for wagering on something called "football."

Having said that, people do win at college football. Not many, but some. People do win at college hoops (I rarely bet college hoops other than futures). Those two sports can be beaten. The others are different things, and I haven't seen anyone beat other team sports long-term, and by long-term, I mean a decade or more. Unless you're talking about people who rely primarily on middle shooting and arbitrage. Then the other sports can be tackled, but it requires literal 24/7 commitment.

I do know people who have beaten non-team sports.

Frankly, what I do for 100 days, I could not do for 365 even if I knew how.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."

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