Sports Betting Back!
Anyone have other plays for the MLB or NBA?
Quote: CommishJust a little insight into your wager. The Dodgers are like -300. The money in baseball is in finding winners under -150. If a team is not worth betting straight up they are not worth putting in a parlay. A -300 looks like they cannot lose but they do. Baseball is still played with a stick and a ball.
Just a little insight to ur insight. I am very aware of the Dodgers odds which is actually - 330. The Run line is -2 1/2 runs. Both of these odds, I would never bet straight up.
Now why do I put it on the parlay? Here is a little insight into how I have been successful in sports wagering. I typically take my main play or two and wager about 70% of my event risk.. the other 30% I bet on a high payout parlay. I don't actually expect to win all my parlay but my main plays usually cover the cost of the parlay..I use the term free roll .
In this case I was risking $1000 .. of that I put 300 on Tottenham at +135, 300 on yankees at -130, and 300 on the parlay. Tottenham already won.
Now u question adding Dodgers on parlay... here is why. Given what I have already smoking of in this thread, this parlay is a windfall play witch I feel good about but I don't actually expect to hit. 300 will pay 5400 (18 - 1). Now if I only had a 4-team parlay and left out the Dodgers ML, then the parlay would only pay 13 to 1 (3900 ). So adding that extra Dodgers game at - 330, which I feel is a very good chance of winning, adds 5x to my parlay at no additional cost to me. Yes, anything can happen and the Dodgers could lose, but it is absolutely worth the extra play on the parlay.
Quote: WatchMeWinJust a little insight to ur insight. I am very aware of the Dodgers odds which is actually - 330. The Run line is -2 1/2 runs. Both of these odds, I would never bet straight up.
Now why do I put it on the parlay? Here is a little insight into how I have been successful in sports wagering. I typically take my main play or two and wager about 70% of my event risk.. the other 30% I bet on a high payout parlay. I don't actually expect to win all my parlay but my main plays usually cover the cost of the parlay..I use the term free roll .
In this case I was risking $1000 .. of that I put 300 on Tottenham at +135, 300 on yankees at -130, and 300 on the parlay. Tottenham already won.
Now u question adding Dodgers on parlay... here is why. Given what I have already smoking of in this thread, this parlay is a windfall play witch I feel good about but I don't actually expect to hit. 300 will pay 5400 (18 - 1). Now if I only had a 4-team parlay and left out the Dodgers ML, then the parlay would only pay 13 to 1 (3900 ). So adding that extra Dodgers game at - 330, which I feel is a very good chance of winning, adds 5x to my parlay at no additional cost to me. Yes, anything can happen and the Dodgers could lose, but it is absolutely worth the extra play on the parlay.
The difference between 18:1 and 13:1 is not 5x.
Quote: unJonThe difference between 18:1 and 13:1 is not 5x.
Ummm..ok, if u say so. How do u figure?
Quote: WatchMeWinUmmm..ok, if u say so. How do u figure?
Math. The difference between 65:1 and 13:1 is 5x.
Quote: unJonMath. The difference between 65:1 and 13:1 is 5x.
You inability to grasp the math as it relates to my parlay difference is confounding. You need to read the entire post and understand sports and parlays... and try to grok the notion.
Parlay fixed number - 300
- 300 dollar 5 team Parlay with the dodgers on the parlay payout is 5400
- that same 300 dollar parlay without the dodgers on it (4 team parlay) payout is 3900.
- difference of 1500 on that same 300 dollar parlay
- 300 into 1500 is 5x with same dollar value risk
Quote: WatchMeWinYou inability to grasp the math as it relates to my parlay difference is confounding. You need to read the entire post and understand sports and parlays... and try to grok the notion.
Parlay fixed number - 300
- 300 dollar 5 team Parlay with the dodgers on the parlay payout is 5400
- that same 300 dollar parlay without the dodgers on it (4 team parlay) payout is 3900.
- difference of 1500 on that same 300 dollar parlay
- 300 into 1500 is 5x with same dollar value risk
Oh I grok. Call it differing views, but the way I see it, adding the Dodgers does change the “dollar value risk.” You are risking the potential $3,900 parlay win by adding them.
Story at Hollywood Reporter
Quote: unJonOh I grok. Call it differing views, but the way I see it, adding the Dodgers does change the “dollar value risk.” You are risking the potential $3,900 parlay win by adding them.
By that rationale, you are saying that it is not wise to take the best play on the board (in probability of winning)... a play that is -335 for a reason.. and being able to make that play pay me essentially 5-1 on my bet as opposed to laying -335 for that play. Ill take it all day long!
Quote: WatchMeWinThere is little question that both Yanks and Dodgers will win..
not trying to shoot down your bet - hope you win - Good Luck
but how do you figure the Yanks are sure to win?
the Nationals, last years World Series winners, had a better record at home last year than the Yanks did on the road
Cole is great but so is Scherzer and Cole has a new team to get acclimated to
Cole probably has an edge but it's a small one
I think it's a fairly even match as the odds indicate at Yanks -130 - Yanks maybe have a small edge -
just curious
Quote: lilredroosternot trying to shoot down your bet - hope you win - Good Luck
but how do you figure the Yanks are sure to win?
the Nationals, last years World Series winners, had a better record at home last year than the Yanks did on the road
Cole is great but so is Scherzer and Cole has a new team to get acclimated to
Cole probably has an edge but it's a small one
I think it's a fairly even match as the odds indicate at Yanks -130 - Yanks maybe have a small edge -
just curious
Anything can happen. We all know there are no sure things in sports betting. I like the yanks and dodgers alot due to their line ups and pitching matchups going on Thurs. As far as the Yankees, Cole was the most dominant pitcher in baseball last year. He is energized and knows the Washington line up well. Scherzer got rocked last week in Philly and Anthony Rendon is gone, which is a big blow to their lineup. I like the Yanks. We shall see.
for the Yanks:
LeMahieu is questionable as a starter - he's recovering from Covid - if he does start he might not be in top form
their fabulous closer Chapman may not suit up due to Covid
Quote: lilredroostergood point about Rendon
for the Yanks:
LeMahieu is questionable as a starter - he's recovering from Covid - if he does start he might not be in top form
their fabulous closer Chapman may not suit up due to Covid
Sounds positive for the over.
As such last night I took the SF/LA total under 9.5 runs (squeaked that one out). Unfortunately I also had the Nats +130 and lost that one.
Today, taking ATL+120 and BAL/BOS Under 9.5 runs.
why don't you keep a running tally for the followers here based on every bet being one unit
you can tell everybody how much you bet, no problem - but for tracking, it's just one unit
it would be interesting
it would be very important to count only the games you have posted before they begin
I don't think your Tottenham game should count because you posted the win after the game was over
but your win on the yankees would count
now about parlays - I think they should be tallied separately - if you lose a parlay that shouldn't be counted as negative 1 with all the other bets because you're betting less on parlays.......................but it can be counted as negative 1 with the parlays considered separately
so, for example on your first inning push on the Mets game at -140 that would credit you with .71 if you win and -1 if you lose
with every bet being one unit then anyone who wanted to can easily calculate the edge
just a thought - I think people here might enjoy seeing it - of course it's up to you, not me, whether to do it or not
Quote: MidwestAPIn general, early in seasons, especially with new leagues (like XFL), or shortened pre-seasons (like MLB and NFL this year), I like to take total Unders. The idea that the defenses (and pitching in the case of baseball) are ahead of the offenses for the first several weeks.
As such last night I took the SF/LA total under 9.5 runs (squeaked that one out). Unfortunately I also had the Nats +130 and lost that one.
Today, taking ATL+120 and BAL/BOS Under 9.5 runs.
I actually feel the opposite about this short MLB season. Overs will be the way to go early on. The 3 batter minimum for relievers fundamentally changes the late innings of games. The DH in both leagues means no pitchers batting. With limited training sessions some starters may be on an early pitch count (like Degrom tonight is only gonna pitch around 85 pitches*). All that said, they still have to play the games. GLTA.
*
https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-degrom-gsellman-mcneil-1.47066352#:~:text=SportsBaseballMets-,Jacob%20deGrom%20throws%20in%20simulated%20game%3B%20pitch%20count%20will%20be,to%20about%2085%20in%20opener&text=For%20whatever%20worry%20came%20from,15%20pitches%20on%20Opening%20Day.
Quote: WatchMeWinFolks, we are picking up right where we left off last year... and that is with W's ! Feeling it . In the zone. MegaMonster! Get on it while Im still here.. Today I am on Mets under. I got it at 8. It has gone down to 7.5 in some places, but, if so, I would buy the half run up to under 8. Im also on the first inning push in Mets game at -140. Also on the Reds RL plus 115. Play BALLLL!!
really nice - you scored with all 3
Quote: KeeneoneI actually feel the opposite about this short MLB season. Overs will be the way to go early on. The 3 batter minimum for relievers fundamentally changes the late innings of games. The DH in both leagues means no pitchers batting. With limited training sessions some starters may be on an early pitch count (like Degrom tonight is only gonna pitch around 85 pitches*). All that said, they still have to play the games. GLTA.
The rule changes are a mixed bag. The DH will help the over. OTOH, only 60 games means starting pitchers can pitch longer as less worry for limiting total innings (thus pitches) for the season.
The question is, which do you feel better about?
Quote: lilredroosterreally nice - you scored with all 3
Thanks man. Starting off the season really well. The parlay I had with Tottenham actually paid out 9-1. The dodgers game was counted because it was an action bet. Paid 2800 on 300 bet. If the yankees game didnt end early, there is no question it was going over and the 5 team parlay would have it. Regardless, I am confident this will be another very profitable year. 6-0 to start in baseball.
As you can see, chirps, chirps, chirps when posting winners.... then when an L comes, the dogs start barking. lol
Quote: WatchMeWinThanks man. Starting off the season really well. The parlay I had with Tottenham actually paid out 9-1. The dodgers game was counted because it was an action bet. Paid 2800 on 300 bet. If the yankees game didnt end early, there is no question it was going over and the 5 team parlay would have it. Regardless, I am confident this will be another very profitable year. 6-0 to start in baseball.
As you can see, chirps, chirps, chirps when posting winners.... then when an L comes, the dogs start barking. lol
Are you 6-0 on bets or picks? I know you did some parlays so are you counting a winning parlay at one, or as a total of each pick in the parlay?
Quote: DRichAre you 6-0 on bets or picks? I know you did some parlays so are you counting a winning parlay at one, or as a total of each pick in the parlay?
The games/totals I picked. Personally, I put in 7 plays with my book which includes sides, totals, 1st inning, parlays, etc, With my book I am 7-0. Looking to take a 1000 initial starting bank... and never have to dip into more, and take it to over 6 figures through football season. Last year I never went over 500 starting bet and I took it over 75k.
Quote: WatchMeWinToday I'm going with 1st inning drawl in yanks game and back with reds rl..play ball!!
i took the top 4 favorites on a run line parlay, Even though the book is playing games with some runlines being -2. Payout is like 10,8 to one.
https://nypost.com/2019/08/18/yankees-james-paxton-keeps-getting-wrecked-in-the-first/#:~:text=Yankees'%20James%20Paxton%20keeps%20getting%20wrecked%20in%20the%20first&text=In%2022%20starts%20this%20year,year%2C''%20Boone%20said
It is nice the Yankees have 3 lefty starters this season (Happ/Montgomery/Paxton).
Quote: AZDuffmani took the top 4 favorites on a run line parlay, Even though the book is playing games with some runlines being -2. Payout is like 10,8 to one.
I hope Boston wasnt one of them... They are starting off on a bad note today.
Quote: KeeneoneWhile I hope you win the first inning draw, Paxton had one of the worst 1st inning eras last season. He did have back surgery in the offseason and I hope he has a great couple of months for the Yanks.
https://nypost.com/2019/08/18/yankees-james-paxton-keeps-getting-wrecked-in-the-first/#:~:text=Yankees'%20James%20Paxton%20keeps%20getting%20wrecked%20in%20the%20first&text=In%2022%20starts%20this%20year,year%2C''%20Boone%20said
It is nice the Yankees have 3 lefty starters this season (Happ/Montgomery/Paxton).
I love strasburg even though the yankees bats scare me. As far as paxton goes, i just know the nats line up is extremely different without Rendon and Soto.... Just need to get by the 1st inning. Thats all I care about today. I actually did extremely well with the 1st inning bets last year... Its a good play for me, especially with great pitching match ups. Never played that in the past. I dont even think they had these bets when I first starting betting baseball. ha
Quote: WatchMeWinI hope Boston wasnt one of them... They are starting off on a bad note today.
I just saw that, Hopefully time to crawl back.
BetOnline.
said Tyson is opening up as the -350
Odds shark
Betting Odds
Fighter Odds
Mike Tyson -105
Roy Jones Jr. -135
I didn't look to see what Betonline opened at or what they are at, but that's a significant difference.
Any opinions who will win and why?
Quote: AxelWolfI too had this inkling this was Nathan, Tasha, LS etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc. If so she is a very well verse mentally challenged troll/puppeteer ever.
Whatever the case, this person is a troll or an idiot if I ever seen one.
Feel free to suspend me whomever..
Oh brother.
Quote: AxelWolfMike Tyson Vs Roy Jones Jr. Do people have interest in this? I certainly do, as I enjoy stuff like celebrity boxing.
BetOnline.
said Tyson is opening up as the -350
Odds shark
Betting Odds
Fighter Odds
Mike Tyson -105
Roy Jones Jr. -135
I didn't look to see what Betonline opened at or what they are at, but that's a significant difference.
Any opinions who will win and why?
Let me start off by saying I am a HUGE Mike Tyson fan. Watching his fights in his prime , all 10 seconds of each fight, was flat out awesome! Recently Ive been watching Hotboxin with Mike Tyson on youtube. The guy is hilarious! He is still in great shape. He is doing alot of drugs apparently these days. Smokin whatever it is he smokes , and toad sh** , etc. Maybe this will help him in the ring or maybe hurt his lungs. idk
A fight like this tends to be a not so serious fight. Who knows how much each really wants it? Who knows what type of shape Roy really is in? Would either of them throw the fight? I never say never. Take a look at this awesome clip from Hotboxin with former Mob boss Mike Franzese. About 49 minutes in, they start talking about how a former NFL guy threw football games to pay off his gambling debts. Mike Tyson seemed to be all about doing whatever it takes to make that quick money by his reaction... not to say he has done or will do it... but anything can happen these days. I will watch as a fan. Maybe just throw a couple nuggets on Tyson for entertainment.
Quote: WatchMeWinLet me start off by saying I am a HUGE Mike Tyson fan. Watching his fights in his prime , all 10 seconds of each fight, was flat out awesome! Recently Ive been watching Hotboxin with Mike Tyson on youtube. The guy is hilarious! He is still in great shape. He is doing alot of drugs apparently these days. Smokin whatever it is he smokes , and toad sh** , etc. Maybe this will help him in the ring or maybe hurt his lungs. idk
A fight like this tends to be a not so serious fight. Who knows how much each really wants it? Who knows what type of shape Roy really is in? Would either of them throw the fight? I never say never. Take a look at this awesome clip from Hotboxin with former Mob boss Mike Franzese. About 49 minutes in, they start talking about how a former NFL guy threw football games to pay off his gambling debts. Mike Tyson seemed to be all about doing whatever it takes to make that quick money by his reaction... not to say he has done or will do it... but anything can happen these days. I will watch as a fan. Maybe just throw a couple nuggets on Tyson for entertainment.
Here is the link..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNlR3lfnLR8
Quote: AxelWolfMike Tyson Vs Roy Jones Jr. Do people have interest in this? I certainly do, as I enjoy stuff like celebrity boxing.
BetOnline.
said Tyson is opening up as the -350
Odds shark
Betting Odds
Fighter Odds
Mike Tyson -105
Roy Jones Jr. -135
I didn't look to see what Betonline opened at or what they are at, but that's a significant difference.
Any opinions who will win and why?
Mike Tyson is but a shadow of what he once was
if you can get an inflated price betting against him - I would say that is the way to go
he may be way, way overbet because he is a name - maybe not
from an article 2 days ago about him:
"After getting knocked out at age 35 by Lennox Lewis in a final bid for a title in 2002, Tyson went back into the ring three more times. He beat Clifford Etienne before being knocked out by Danny Williams and 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 in the middle of a fight against Kevin McBride. “If this does not convince the public that Tyson is washed up, perhaps nothing will,” The Times wrote under the headline “Tyson Quits Fight and May Quit Boxing Next.”'
about Roy Jones Jr. as an older fighter:
"On December 30, 2017, Jones announced that he would return to the Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida to headline the Island Fights 46 on February 8, 2018. Jones had previously headlined Island Fights, which is a show that included both boxing and MMA bouts. Speaking of the event, Jones said, "My last day at the Bay. It's my last one for the bayfront ... Civic Center, Pensacola, Bayfront Arena, whatever you want to call it. So if you want to come to see my last day in Pensacola, be there February 8. That's my last one there." He stated it would be his final fight. Jones announced Scott Sigmon (30-11-1, 16 KOs) as his opponent for the 10 round bout.[145] Jones ended his boxing career defeating Sigmon via a one-sided 10 round unanimous decision, also winning the vacant World Boxing Union cruiserweight title in the process. All three judges scored the fight 98-92 in favour of Jones. Jones started off the better boxer landed upper cuts and hooks and remained in control throughout the fight. Jones landed an uppercut in round 5 which knocked Sigmon's mouthpiece out. In round 6, Sigmon began throwing more punches, although they were weak combinations easily blocked by Jones. Jones was also able to counter most of the shots Sigmon threw."'
I'm too a big Mike Tyson fan and have been as far as I can remember. I really don't want to get off on another subject, but I think he got a bad beat regarding the rape charges. Boxing is probably my favorite sport to watch, unfortunately I haven't been doing much of that for a while. I absolutely love big events. I used to have big BBQs/boxing parties whenever there was a big fight.Quote: WatchMeWinLet me start off by saying I am a HUGE Mike Tyson fan. Watching his fights in his prime , all 10 seconds of each fight, was flat out awesome! Recently Ive been watching Hotboxin with Mike Tyson on youtube. The guy is hilarious! He is still in great shape. He is doing alot of drugs apparently these days. Smokin whatever it is he smokes , and toad sh** , etc. Maybe this will help him in the ring or maybe hurt his lungs. idk
A fight like this tends to be a not so serious fight. Who knows how much each really wants it? Who knows what type of shape Roy really is in? Would either of them throw the fight? I never say never. Take a look at this awesome clip from Hotboxin with former Mob boss Mike Franzese. About 49 minutes in, they start talking about how a former NFL guy threw football games to pay off his gambling debts. Mike Tyson seemed to be all about doing whatever it takes to make that quick money by his reaction... not to say he has done or will do it... but anything can happen these days. I will watch as a fan. Maybe just throw a couple nuggets on Tyson for entertainment.
I can't disagree with anything else you said, I think we're on the same page. Hell must have frozen over.
Interesting, thanks for the update. The line seems to be all over the place. This is one of those cases where the fan inside of me wants to bet on Mike Tyson but I don't think that's the smart AP move. In that case, I'll probably just put in a small action bet and enjoy the fight.Quote: lilredroosterMike Tyson is but a shadow of what he once was
if you can get an inflated price betting against him - I would say that is the way to go
he may be way, way overbet because he is a name - maybe not
from an article 2 days ago about him:
"After getting knocked out at age 35 by Lennox Lewis in a final bid for a title in 2002, Tyson went back into the ring three more times. He beat Clifford Etienne before being knocked out by Danny Williams and 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 in the middle of a fight against Kevin McBride. “If this does not convince the public that Tyson is washed up, perhaps nothing will,” The Times wrote under the headline “Tyson Quits Fight and May Quit Boxing Next.”'
about Roy Jones Jr. as an older fighter:
"On December 30, 2017, Jones announced that he would return to the Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida to headline the Island Fights 46 on February 8, 2018. Jones had previously headlined Island Fights, which is a show that included both boxing and MMA bouts. Speaking of the event, Jones said, "My last day at the Bay. It's my last one for the bayfront ... Civic Center, Pensacola, Bayfront Arena, whatever you want to call it. So if you want to come to see my last day in Pensacola, be there February 8. That's my last one there." He stated it would be his final fight. Jones announced Scott Sigmon (30-11-1, 16 KOs) as his opponent for the 10 round bout.[145] Jones ended his boxing career defeating Sigmon via a one-sided 10 round unanimous decision, also winning the vacant World Boxing Union cruiserweight title in the process. All three judges scored the fight 98-92 in favour of Jones. Jones started off the better boxer landed upper cuts and hooks and remained in control throughout the fight. Jones landed an uppercut in round 5 which knocked Sigmon's mouthpiece out. In round 6, Sigmon began throwing more punches, although they were weak combinations easily blocked by Jones. Jones was also able to counter most of the shots Sigmon threw."'
Quote: WatchMeWinToday I'm taking Phillies, under phillies, reds, first inning push in following games... TB, Mets, SD
you didn't post the odds on the Phillies game and the Reds game which were way under even money - not referring to the under
I couldn't find the odds on the first inning pushes but I'm guessing they were also well under even money
people are going to want to see that
Quote: AxelWolfInteresting, thanks for the update. The line seems to be all over the place. This is one of those cases where the fan inside of me wants to bet on Mike Tyson but I don't think that's the smart AP move. In that case, I'll probably just put in a small action bet and enjoy the fight.
Just curious Axel, can you not "enjoy" the fight without a small action bet? And I am not being judgmental or critical as I have a little of that going on during football season, where I bet a couple televised Sunday games that I otherwise wouldn't watch. It is definitely not an AP move. It's just you are a much better AP than me, I am a little surprised.
Regardless, I can't see any value in betting a guy 15 years removed from his last two fights, a KO at the hands of Danny Williams and Tyson quitting on his stool between rounds to Keven McBride, neither of whom I have ever heard of.
It is also my understanding they will be using bigger, more padded gloves, that are often used in exhibitions and practice, which reduce the likelihood of a KO. Just off the top of my head, that is a disadvantage Tyson. I think even an out of shape Jones could just pepper Tyson with Jabs until Tyson gets tired or frustrated and decides to try to bite him. LOL
Quote: AxelWolfI'm too a big Mike Tyson fan and have been as far as I can remember. I really don't want to get off on another subject, but I think he got a bad beat regarding the rape charges. Boxing is probably my favorite sport to watch, unfortunately I haven't been doing much of that for a while. I absolutely love big events. I used to have big BBQs/boxing parties whenever there was a big fight.
I can't disagree with anything else you said, I think we're on the same page. Hell must have frozen over.
We are usually on the same page with topics... just as long as I dont talk about my craps winnings and you dont troll me.. all good! lol
Regarding Tyson and rape... dont mention it to him or he will destroy you! Love this video!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOhdx1TLutw
of course I can enjoy it without an action action bet, however it's more fun when you have one.Quote: kewljJust curious Axel, can you not "enjoy" the fight without a small action bet? And I am not being judgmental or critical as I have a little of that going on during football season, where I bet a couple televised Sunday games that I otherwise wouldn't watch. It is definitely not an AP move. It's just you are a much better AP than me, I am a little surprised.
Regardless, I can't see any value in betting a guy 15 years removed from his last two fights, a KO at the hands of Danny Williams and Tyson quitting on his stool between rounds to Keven McBride, neither of whom I have ever heard of.
It is also my understanding they will be using bigger, more padded gloves, that are often used in exhibitions and practice, which reduce the likelihood of a KO. Just off the top of my head, that is a disadvantage Tyson. I think even an out of shape Jones could just pepper Tyson with Jabs until Tyson gets tired or frustrated and decides to try to bite him. LOL
Often times I don't get down on NFL when I do happen to watch a game. Aside from boxing, I was never really interested in watching sports at all until I was introduced to the wagering aspect if not for that I probably would have never got into watching football in the first place. When I was younger it was a great game to play, but I really didn't care much for watching it.
https://imgur.com/EADrmGO
Tonight's main play is the nationals rl. Going large! Also a parlay with nats rl, twins rl, 1st inning push Brewers game, moved indians to under 10.5.
