kewlj
kewlj
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June 29th, 2020 at 9:27:34 AM permalink
Last night, unable to find anything interesting on TV on 800 channels, I watched a few minutes of the horse racing channel. I am not a big horse racing guy, so maybe it was just total sports withdraw setting in. :(

So I got to thinking about the difference between horse racing and sports betting regarding the odds you get.

Sportsbetting you get the odds at the time you place the bet where as horse racing you get the odds based on when the event (race) goes off. This means that you can bet a 4-1 horse only to have some whale dump big money at the last second knocking your bet to even money or less.

Just imagine with sportsbetting, you bet say the Eagles at +7.5, only to have the odds change and by game time you have the Eagles +2.5. Nobody would stand for that. The odds are set by the amount of wagers at the time the wager is placed, so why does horseracing change your odds based on wagered placed after your wager? It doesn't make sense to me and it surely doesn't make sense that two almost identical things horse racing and sportsbetting are handled completely differently.

Any thoughts?
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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June 29th, 2020 at 9:44:19 AM permalink
Bookies & vig.
kewlj
kewlj
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June 29th, 2020 at 9:51:47 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Bookies & vig.



I probably should have used a moneyline sportsbet as my example rather than the Eagles +7.5 (where vig comes into play). Let's change the example to a bet on Eagles at +280 when placed and it moves to +135 by game time.

Nobody would stand for that. Your wager is based on the odds at the time of the wager and those odds are based on what has been bet up until that point. I don't see why horseracing shouldn't be the same way. Why should wagers and the betting pool made after your wager effect your wager?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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June 29th, 2020 at 9:55:02 AM permalink
Well, your comparison to spreads is, while not quite "apples and oranges," definitely comparing Red Delicious and Granny Smiths. When tote odds change, it can't change the win or loss of your bet, the way changing the spread would. A more accurate example is, you made a money line bet on the Eagles at +130, only for it to drop to +100 or even -110 by the time the game started; the bet can't change to the point where what would have been a win when you made it is now a loss.

I am assuming horse racing in the USA uses pari-mutuel because it's pretty much the only way to have a single betting system that is manageable and can still just about guarantee making a profit on each race for the track.

Note that, in England, if you make a bet - even at the track, in the "betting ring" - you keep the odds you got when you made the bet. However, the track itself is not an interested party in the betting.
Ace2
Ace2
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June 29th, 2020 at 11:08:51 AM permalink
Bookies are guessing what the final ratio of money bet will be, and are usually quite accurate. When you see the lines move slightly thatís a discrepancy between opening line ratio and actual money wagered ratio. Bookies will lose sometimes if the line moves too much or wagers donít come in as expected

Horse racing is parí-mutuel so they collect all bets, take a huge cut, then payout at the final ratio irrespective of what was quoted when the wager was made. They canít lose
Itís all about making that GTA
billryan
billryan
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June 29th, 2020 at 11:43:30 AM permalink
As already pointed out, horse racing is part of a pari-mutual pool, sports betting isn't.
billryan
billryan
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June 29th, 2020 at 11:57:31 AM permalink
As already pointed out, horse racing is part of a pari-mutual pool, sports betting isn't. Sports betting is you vs. the casino, horse racing is you against everyone else. In the USofA anyway
DRich
DRich
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June 29th, 2020 at 12:43:46 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I probably should have used a moneyline sportsbet as my example rather than the Eagles +7.5 (where vig comes into play). Let's change the example to a bet on Eagles at +280 when placed and it moves to +135 by game time.

Nobody would stand for that. Your wager is based on the odds at the time of the wager and those odds are based on what has been bet up until that point. I don't see why horseracing shouldn't be the same way. Why should wagers and the betting pool made after your wager effect your wager?



People would stand for it if it was their only way to bet on the games. It is called parimutial betting and the house has no risk. They just take a fixed percentage of the total bet for the house and pay out the rest.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
redietz
redietz
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June 29th, 2020 at 1:42:02 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Last night, unable to find anything interesting on TV on 800 channels, I watched a few minutes of the horse racing channel. I am not a big horse racing guy, so maybe it was just total sports withdraw setting in. :(

So I got to thinking about the difference between horse racing and sports betting regarding the odds you get.

Sportsbetting you get the odds at the time you place the bet where as horse racing you get the odds based on when the event (race) goes off. This means that you can bet a 4-1 horse only to have some whale dump big money at the last second knocking your bet to even money or less.

Just imagine with sportsbetting, you bet say the Eagles at +7.5, only to have the odds change and by game time you have the Eagles +2.5. Nobody would stand for that. The odds are set by the amount of wagers at the time the wager is placed, so why does horseracing change your odds based on wagered placed after your wager? It doesn't make sense to me and it surely doesn't make sense that two almost identical things horse racing and sportsbetting are handled completely differently.

Any thoughts?




Hey kewlJ,

Regnis, Keystone, and I gave some responses over at VCT. I defer to regnis on all things horseracing. I gave a couple of reasons as to the why.

The responses over there are actually pretty good. I don't know if you can copy and paste them here, if that's allowed or what, but it was refreshing to actually have a post over there that has some accurate gambling information and history in it. Rare event these days.

I don't know why people got on your case. Why should you know anything about pari-mutuel betting? It's not what you're expert in, so why should you know anything? It would be like asking me about craps or pai gow poker. I know zero, but that means zero. I'm not trying to play craps or pai gow for a living.

If you can't copy and paste the stuff, I'll see if I have some time tonight to rehash it here. It was probably the best gambling thread at VCT in about six months. As you say, you can usually tell pretty quickly who knows what they're talking about.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
kewlj
kewlj
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June 29th, 2020 at 2:15:55 PM permalink
Redietz, please don't copy and past here. For one, I don't think that is allowed. Second, that forum is a bunch of angry bitter trolls. I did not post this discussion there. If I wanted opinions from that forum, I would have posted this discussion there. An ex-member here copied and pasted my comments from here over there.

It was just a discussion. I understand how it works, I just think it kind of strange. I can't think of any other wager, casino games, sports ect that you are not looked into specific odds when you make the wager. You are a sports guy Redietz. How would you feel betting a line at -120 and when the game goes off you get -210 instead? Your interest was likely at that specific odds of -120. You likely wouldn't have bet at -210.

I mean how would it be if you bet 13 on roulette thinking you would be paid 35-1 and then AFTER you had wagered they inform you the wager will only pay 25-1?

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