Changing odds

Last night, unable to find anything interesting on TV on 800 channels, I watched a few minutes of the horse racing channel. I am not a big horse racing guy, so maybe it was just total sports withdraw setting in. :(

So I got to thinking about the difference between horse racing and sports betting regarding the odds you get.

Sportsbetting you get the odds at the time you place the bet where as horse racing you get the odds based on when the event (race) goes off. This means that you can bet a 4-1 horse only to have some whale dump big money at the last second knocking your bet to even money or less.

Just imagine with sportsbetting, you bet say the Eagles at +7.5, only to have the odds change and by game time you have the Eagles +2.5. Nobody would stand for that. The odds are set by the amount of wagers at the time the wager is placed, so why does horseracing change your odds based on wagered placed after your wager? It doesn't make sense to me and it surely doesn't make sense that two almost identical things horse racing and sportsbetting are handled completely differently.

Any thoughts?

Bookies & vig.

Quote: ChumpChange

Bookies & vig.

I probably should have used a moneyline sportsbet as my example rather than the Eagles +7.5 (where vig comes into play). Let's change the example to a bet on Eagles at +280 when placed and it moves to +135 by game time.

Nobody would stand for that. Your wager is based on the odds at the time of the wager and those odds are based on what has been bet up until that point. I don't see why horseracing shouldn't be the same way. Why should wagers and the betting pool made after your wager effect your wager?

Well, your comparison to spreads is, while not quite "apples and oranges," definitely comparing Red Delicious and Granny Smiths. When tote odds change, it can't change the win or loss of your bet, the way changing the spread would. A more accurate example is, you made a money line bet on the Eagles at +130, only for it to drop to +100 or even -110 by the time the game started; the bet can't change to the point where what would have been a win when you made it is now a loss.

I am assuming horse racing in the USA uses pari-mutuel because it's pretty much the only way to have a single betting system that is manageable and can still just about guarantee making a profit on each race for the track.

Note that, in England, if you make a bet - even at the track, in the "betting ring" - you keep the odds you got when you made the bet. However, the track itself is not an interested party in the betting.

Bookies are guessing what the final ratio of money bet will be, and are usually quite accurate. When you see the lines move slightly that’s a discrepancy between opening line ratio and actual money wagered ratio. Bookies will lose sometimes if the line moves too much or wagers don’t come in as expected

Horse racing is parí-mutuel so they collect all bets, take a huge cut, then payout at the final ratio irrespective of what was quoted when the wager was made. They can’t lose

As already pointed out, horse racing is part of a pari-mutual pool, sports betting isn't.

As already pointed out, horse racing is part of a pari-mutual pool, sports betting isn't. Sports betting is you vs. the casino, horse racing is you against everyone else. In the USofA anyway

Quote: kewlj

I probably should have used a moneyline sportsbet as my example rather than the Eagles +7.5 (where vig comes into play). Let's change the example to a bet on Eagles at +280 when placed and it moves to +135 by game time.

Nobody would stand for that. Your wager is based on the odds at the time of the wager and those odds are based on what has been bet up until that point. I don't see why horseracing shouldn't be the same way. Why should wagers and the betting pool made after your wager effect your wager?

People would stand for it if it was their only way to bet on the games. It is called parimutial betting and the house has no risk. They just take a fixed percentage of the total bet for the house and pay out the rest.

Quote: kewlj

Last night, unable to find anything interesting on TV on 800 channels, I watched a few minutes of the horse racing channel. I am not a big horse racing guy, so maybe it was just total sports withdraw setting in. :(

So I got to thinking about the difference between horse racing and sports betting regarding the odds you get.

Sportsbetting you get the odds at the time you place the bet where as horse racing you get the odds based on when the event (race) goes off. This means that you can bet a 4-1 horse only to have some whale dump big money at the last second knocking your bet to even money or less.

Just imagine with sportsbetting, you bet say the Eagles at +7.5, only to have the odds change and by game time you have the Eagles +2.5. Nobody would stand for that. The odds are set by the amount of wagers at the time the wager is placed, so why does horseracing change your odds based on wagered placed after your wager? It doesn't make sense to me and it surely doesn't make sense that two almost identical things horse racing and sportsbetting are handled completely differently.

Any thoughts?

Hey kewlJ,

Regnis, Keystone, and I gave some responses over at VCT. I defer to regnis on all things horseracing. I gave a couple of reasons as to the why.

The responses over there are actually pretty good. I don't know if you can copy and paste them here, if that's allowed or what, but it was refreshing to actually have a post over there that has some accurate gambling information and history in it. Rare event these days.

I don't know why people got on your case. Why should you know anything about pari-mutuel betting? It's not what you're expert in, so why should you know anything? It would be like asking me about craps or pai gow poker. I know zero, but that means zero. I'm not trying to play craps or pai gow for a living.

If you can't copy and paste the stuff, I'll see if I have some time tonight to rehash it here. It was probably the best gambling thread at VCT in about six months. As you say, you can usually tell pretty quickly who knows what they're talking about.

Redietz, please don't copy and past here. For one, I don't think that is allowed. Second, that forum is a bunch of angry bitter trolls. I did not post this discussion there. If I wanted opinions from that forum, I would have posted this discussion there. An ex-member here copied and pasted my comments from here over there.

It was just a discussion. I understand how it works, I just think it kind of strange. I can't think of any other wager, casino games, sports ect that you are not looked into specific odds when you make the wager. You are a sports guy Redietz. How would you feel betting a line at -120 and when the game goes off you get -210 instead? Your interest was likely at that specific odds of -120. You likely wouldn't have bet at -210.

I mean how would it be if you bet 13 on roulette thinking you would be paid 35-1 and then AFTER you had wagered they inform you the wager will only pay 25-1?

Redietz posted this on another forum:

"when online horse wagering started providing the bulk of the volume, the odds you're looking at a minute to post may 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐧𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 to the final odds. 𝐈𝐭'𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐚 𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐩 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮'𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝. I cringe at the idea."

it's false

at least at the very large tracks meaning Saratoga, Santa Anita, Belmont, Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Churchill

on a crummy little claiming race at Santa Anita on Friday, 6/12 the WPS was $166K; the win pool alone was probably around $90K
it would have been much more but no spectators were allowed and Santa Anita is one of the few tracks that draws a significant amount of spectators

usually at these big tracks if a whale bets very late it is not a large enough bet to move the odds by a great amount - it will move the odds by a small amount - typically a favorite will go from 5/2 to 2/1 - and of course that means that payouts on some of the other contenders will be higher

and this doesn't happen on every race - it happens once in a while

it's a different story at the small tracks

the crookedness at racing doesn't involve insiders manipulating the odds at the large tracks with huge bets - 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠

the trainers often wrongly think their horse is unbeatable

99% of the crookedness of racing involves illegal drugs


https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=06/12/2020&cy=USA&rn=1

Quote: lilredrooster

Redietz posted this on another forum:

"when online horse wagering started providing the bulk of the volume, the odds you're looking at a minute to post may 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐧𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 to the final odds. 𝐈𝐭'𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐚 𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐩 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐭 n𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮'𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝. I cringe at the idea."

it's false

at least at the very large tracks meaning Saratoga, Santa Anita, Belmont, Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Churchill

on a crummy little claiming race at Santa Anita on Friday, 6/12 the WPS was $166K; the win pool alone was probably around $90K
it would have been much more but no spectators were allowed and Santa Anita is one of the few tracks that draws a significant amount of spectators

usually at these big tracks if a whale bets very late it is not a large enough bet to move the odds by a great amount - it will move the odds by a small amount - typically a favorite will go from 5/2 to 2/1 - and of course that means that payouts on some of the other contenders will be higher

and this doesn't happen on every race - it happens once in a while

it's a different story at the small tracks

the crookedness at racing doesn't involve insiders manipulating the odds at the large tracks with huge bets - 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠

the trainers often wrongly think their horse is unbeatable

99% of the crookedness of racing involves illegal drugs


https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=06/12/2020&cy=USA&rn=1

I'm no horse racing expert, but since lilred took a shot at me, I'll take a moment to respond. If what I said is true at the small tracks, which are the MAJORITY of tracks, then one might (I presume) categorize what I said as true and not false. Also, if a horse goes from 3/2 to 4/5, those odds "bear no resemblance" to each other and are a "crap shoot." If lilred has looser definitions of what "bears no resemblance" means, that's fine. But since this is allegedly a math-oriented site, I have to say that 3/2 and 4/5 -- to me -- bear no resemblance to each other. Just as in blackjack, 3/2 and 6/5 near no resemblance to each other, either.

For folks not so precise, my apologies.

Quote: redietz

I'm no horse racing expert, but since lilred took a shot at me, I'll take a moment to respond. If what I said is true at the small tracks, which are the MAJORITY of tracks,

they might be the majority of tracks but the majority of bettors by far are mainly interested in the big tracks
as well as the majority of betting is done at the big tracks - by a landslide
so, your statements were misleading

comparing BJ payouts to horse racing payouts is largely meaningless

since a BJ AP will sometimes make 1,000 bets in a day

very serious horseplayers will usually make considerably less than 100



late changing odds can often help, not hurt a racing bettor
if the fave goes from 5/2 to 2/1 the 2nd fave may well go from 3/1 to 7/2
so he made more if he bet the 2nd fave

usually if a horse is getting crushed down late it's the fave - this is very often predictable
and many would say chalk eaters are very often making bad bets
so the fave getting crushed down late will very often benefit those who bet other horses

those who bet place or show don't even get to see a tote estimate of the payouts
if 1 or 2 longshots are in there the payouts will be more, if not less - even if their bet is not a shot

those who bet the super exotics - tri, superfecta, pick 6, etc., don't get any estimate of the payouts from the tote

they have to make their own estimates based on the win odds

and those estimates are sometimes way, way off

to those who do well it doesn't seem to matter

sometimes they get paid more than they estimated, sometimes less

admittedly there are very few who beat racing but there are some - the prospects are not nearly as bleak as some who don't know claim

probably 1-2% beat racing which is probably about the same % as those who beat BJ and machines

what is much more common is the veterans who know the game and the tracks they bet very well - particular the smaller tracks where there are far less sharks

they may not beat the game but they break even or come close to breaking even - so to them it amounts to free entertainment
a pleasant and not costly way for a retired pensioner to spend his day - for some

and of course, as in any gambling venue, there are many who get creamed

Technically you are looking at various ways to bet with bookmakers. Here in the UK there are, about, four methods each with its own properties.

(i) Ante-Post - this is way in advance of the race, the odds are better but if your horse doesn't run you lose. Typically done for big races.

(ii) Taking the price - this is typically on the day of the race and may be at the bookie's own odds or, if betting has started on course, at track odds. You take the price which will not change. If you're at the track the bets you make will nearly always be at the price on offer at the time.
(iii) Taking "Starting Price" - this bet can be made at any time and is settled at an average of bookmakers' odds when the race starts (technically it's when they are under starter's orders). Typically, if you don't state you want to take the price, you will be betting at SP.
NB: If a horse(s) is/are withdrawn too late for the on-course market to reform, or you've taken an early price, there is a deduction made for winning bets and if your horse doesn't run you get your money back.

(iv) Tote - this is a pool method (similar to the US) and the payouts are determined via a (complicated) formula that is based on the number of winning bets and the pool size after deduction. In previous times, for outsiders you would tend to do better on the Tote. Where a horse doesn't run you just get your money back.

Most the time, with perfect timing, you can beat Starting Price by taking the price; however occasionally the price just drifts out. Also nowadays a computer receives the prices and uses a sample of bookmakers to determine the Show and SP prices (it uses a price available on at least half the sample).


As has been said using the Tote has its disadvantages that you don't know the odds when you make the bet. The "Whale" effect may hinder you, or if they don't pick the winner, help you. That's the chance you take.

My recommendation is to take the price but keep an eye on the market in case it's worth waiting for the price of your selection to drift out.

Quote: charliepatrick

Technically you are looking at various ways to bet with bookmakers.

charlie:


correct me if I'm wrong but I would assume the bookmakers cannot handle the super exotics which are so popular in the states
the possibility of a $250K payout or greater has attracted many younger bettors to the game

how about your parimutuel tote? do they offer these kinds of bets in the UK? Pick 6, superfecta, etc.?

thanks

Yes - I was concentrating on Win or Each Way betting (singles). fwiw some on-course bookies will take large bets, mainly at the bigger meetings. Most off-course bookies take any amount at SP.

The bookmakers are happy to pay up to £250k-£1m (the maximums depend on which sport it is) on accumulators and other bets. One typical idea is to pick six and have multiple bets covering 6x 5x 4x 3x and 2x ( https://www.aceodds.com/what-is-a-heinz-bet.html ); these types of bets are very popular. The bookies lost millions when Dettori won all seven races at Ascot in 1996.

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/racing-the-day-dettoris-magnificent-seven-left-the-bookies-in-tears-417195.html

The tote also offers placepot at all meetings (usually first 6 races) and a Jackpot (winners of 6 races) at the main meeting of the day. The Jackpot rolls over if it is not won. There is also sometimes a tri-fecta (first three in order).

At the moment ITV (a free-to-air channel) sometimes offer a free to enter chance of £1000 ( https://itv7.itv.com/how-to-enter )

Historically there used to be football pools, there still is but no longer such big payouts ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_pools ).

charlie:


I'm shy to be UK horses when they come over here because we only see abbreviated PPs
no fractions, no speed figures, no comments

personally, do you bet just based on class and finishing position?
or are you easily able to obtain more detailed PPs?

how about others besides yourself?
do they mostly bet without seeing a great deal of detail such as what we see on horses in the U.S.?

also, does racing over there have similar problems to what we have here with illegal drugs?

thanks

You can probably go online to see some data about horses, nearly all daily newspapers have some brief details and I'd guess bookie websites (which you may not be able to see) has form data.

I don't bet the horses, except the Grand National for fun, nor know how the typical punter works, but the high street bookies have the sheets with all the data from the racing newspaper(s) and I have seen people studying the form. I wouldn't know about the "problems" you mention.