JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
• Posts: 1344
November 17th, 2010 at 6:33:48 AM permalink
I don't regularly bet sports, but once in a while (maybe every 4 weeks or so) I spot a sure thing, and I usually put \$2000 on it but this time it's SO SURE that I got a combined \$10,000 bet in on it. It's a big chunk, but it's a certain winner.

Atlanta @ St. Louis, OVER 43

Every which way I analyze this it comes out 50+ points being scored, with weather or not. In fact, I rate this game having more points scored in it than the Indy @ NE game, and the OVER in that one is around 50. Jerry Logan knows.....
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 18500
November 17th, 2010 at 7:11:28 AM permalink
Here is my Wizard's simple handicapping strategy:

Atlanta total points = (Atlanta avg points scored on offense + StL average points given up on defense)/2 = (24.7+18.2)/2 = 21.45
StL total points = (StL avg points scored on offense + Atlanta average points given up on defense)/2 = (17.8+19.4)/2 = 18.6

So total points is 21.45+18.6=40.05. So, I'd be inclined to bet the under.

However, I wouldn't bet real money using this strategy, especially against the spread. I have noticed this strategy will get you close to the posted spread and total most of the time, especially the total. Usually within 3 points.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 12803
November 17th, 2010 at 8:03:11 AM permalink
>I don't regularly bet sports,
I don't never bet sports, but I've lately been curious about the betting mania over it. And the vast amounts of money made in it.

>but once in a while I spot a sure thing,
I think those "sure things" make Bookies very happy. People with sure things bring money in and if enough of them come in on one side, he will move the line.

>and I usually put \$2000 on it
Well, that does indicate you really do feel "sure" about this particular sure thing.
>but it's a certain winner.
Which of course is another way to say that the Bookie offering the bet doesn't know his business and all the other Bettors don't know their business. Now that is what puzzles me about Sports Betting.

>Every which way I analyze this
Is probably the same way in which other Bettors analyze it.
Sure someone will have a few extra little factors he considers and gives some adjusted weight to but in reality, don't most bettors consider the same factors. Last minute information on whether the quarterback slept soundly under guard or was kept awake all night by a hooker hired by an opposing team may help to handicap the game, but most sports handicappers look at the same factors everyone else looks at.
Then the game is played, but even during play: it is unknown whether the efforts are to win or to win within certain parameters favorable to the Bookies.

>Wizard's simple handicapping strategy:
>Atlanta total points = (24.7+18.2)/2 = 21.45
>StL total points = (17.8+19.4)/2 = 18.6
>So total points is 21.45+18.6=40.05. So, I'd be inclined to be the under.

Okay... so the bet really is between: a simple system that does not consider any fine nuances such as: Home/Away, Muddy Track, Temperature, Altitude, Rest Time, but arrives at 40.05 plus or minus 3 points and an undisclosed system that has arrived at 50.
I think I'll try to follow this game and see what happens.

The thread says NFL.. so its football.
The first site I found read:

11/21 16:10 429 430 Falcons(Atlanta) Rams(StLouis)
-3-110
+3-110
43½ ov-110

I'm trying to decipher it but I do note right away that 43 1/2 seems to be the PointBreak for Over/Under and this comports well with the Simple System of 40.05 plus or minus 3.
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
• Posts: 3155
November 17th, 2010 at 8:15:25 AM permalink
My first thought when seeing this game was UNDER. The Rams are not that good on offense. Against a good defense, they'll have a hard time putting up 17, I say they get 13.

Their defense is not good, but it's good enough to hold the Falcons under 30. I'm going to guess 27-13 and the UNDER.

I'm not too worried about weather being a factor, I haven't heard about heavy winds ripping the top of the Edward Jones Dome off.
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
• Posts: 3450
November 17th, 2010 at 8:26:26 AM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

I don't regularly bet sports, but once in a while (maybe every 4 weeks or so) I spot a sure thing, and I usually put \$2000 on it but this time it's SO SURE that I got a combined \$10,000 bet in on it. It's a big chunk, but it's a certain winner.

Atlanta @ St. Louis, OVER 43

Every which way I analyze this it comes out 50+ points being scored, with weather or not. In fact, I rate this game having more points scored in it than the Indy @ NE game, and the OVER in that one is around 50. Jerry Logan knows.....

If the game winds up as UNDER, do we get to chortle and make fun of you, for losing \$10000? I'm sure it won't hurt worse than the \$10k loss, but fun is fun, and that sure would be fun.
NO KILL I
ElectricDreams
Joined: Sep 8, 2010
• Posts: 194
November 17th, 2010 at 8:31:01 AM permalink
\$10,000 on one sports bet? JerryLogan must have, as the venerable Duke Nukem would say, balls of steel.

Here's hoping, I guess! I'm definitely going to watch that game now!
Wizard

Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 18500
November 17th, 2010 at 8:31:09 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

If the game winds up as UNDER, do we get to chortle and make fun of you, for losing \$10000? I'm sure it won't hurt worse than the \$10k loss, but fun is fun, and that sure would be fun.

He opened himself up to it, so we'll be justified in dishing it out. However, we'll have to take the "I told you sos" if he wins, especially if by a large margin.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
• Posts: 3450
November 17th, 2010 at 8:44:24 AM permalink
Oh, absolutely. In either case, I'm comforted by the thought that it's not my \$10k.
NO KILL I
JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
• Posts: 1344
November 17th, 2010 at 10:18:23 AM permalink
I understand I'm taking a chance posting such a bet here with all these analytical people, but I do have good reason for making this pick and that sizeable of a bet on it. This sounds silly, but it's got something to do with what can be construed as "inside information" from a truck driver. OK, you can stop laughing now. I don't usually make such large bets in sports, but since my vp trips haven't been materializing much lately and I can't go for a while (and I usually lose) I'm putting it on a game.

I know I'll get blasted if my bet is a loser but no way it loses. I'll be sweating it out on Sunday.
Ericayne
Joined: Mar 9, 2010