NFL Week #11 Stone Cold Lock
Atlanta @ St. Louis, OVER 43
Every which way I analyze this it comes out 50+ points being scored, with weather or not. In fact, I rate this game having more points scored in it than the Indy @ NE game, and the OVER in that one is around 50. Jerry Logan knows.....
Atlanta total points = (Atlanta avg points scored on offense + StL average points given up on defense)/2 = (24.7+18.2)/2 = 21.45
StL total points = (StL avg points scored on offense + Atlanta average points given up on defense)/2 = (17.8+19.4)/2 = 18.6
So total points is 21.45+18.6=40.05. So, I'd be inclined to bet the under.
However, I wouldn't bet real money using this strategy, especially against the spread. I have noticed this strategy will get you close to the posted spread and total most of the time, especially the total. Usually within 3 points.
I don't never bet sports, but I've lately been curious about the betting mania over it. And the vast amounts of money made in it.
>but once in a while I spot a sure thing,
I think those "sure things" make Bookies very happy. People with sure things bring money in and if enough of them come in on one side, he will move the line.
>and I usually put $2000 on it
Well, that does indicate you really do feel "sure" about this particular sure thing.
>but it's a certain winner.
Which of course is another way to say that the Bookie offering the bet doesn't know his business and all the other Bettors don't know their business. Now that is what puzzles me about Sports Betting.
>Every which way I analyze this
Is probably the same way in which other Bettors analyze it.
Sure someone will have a few extra little factors he considers and gives some adjusted weight to but in reality, don't most bettors consider the same factors. Last minute information on whether the quarterback slept soundly under guard or was kept awake all night by a hooker hired by an opposing team may help to handicap the game, but most sports handicappers look at the same factors everyone else looks at.
Then the game is played, but even during play: it is unknown whether the efforts are to win or to win within certain parameters favorable to the Bookies.
>Wizard's simple handicapping strategy:
>Atlanta total points = (24.7+18.2)/2 = 21.45
>StL total points = (17.8+19.4)/2 = 18.6
>So total points is 21.45+18.6=40.05. So, I'd be inclined to be the under.
Okay... so the bet really is between: a simple system that does not consider any fine nuances such as: Home/Away, Muddy Track, Temperature, Altitude, Rest Time, but arrives at 40.05 plus or minus 3 points and an undisclosed system that has arrived at 50.
I think I'll try to follow this game and see what happens.
The thread says NFL.. so its football.
The first site I found read:
11/21 16:10 429 430 Falcons(Atlanta) Rams(StLouis)
-3-110
+3-110
43½ ov-110
I'm trying to decipher it but I do note right away that 43 1/2 seems to be the PointBreak for Over/Under and this comports well with the Simple System of 40.05 plus or minus 3.
Their defense is not good, but it's good enough to hold the Falcons under 30. I'm going to guess 27-13 and the UNDER.
I'm not too worried about weather being a factor, I haven't heard about heavy winds ripping the top of the Edward Jones Dome off.
Quote: JerryLoganI don't regularly bet sports, but once in a while (maybe every 4 weeks or so) I spot a sure thing, and I usually put $2000 on it but this time it's SO SURE that I got a combined $10,000 bet in on it. It's a big chunk, but it's a certain winner.
Atlanta @ St. Louis, OVER 43
Every which way I analyze this it comes out 50+ points being scored, with weather or not. In fact, I rate this game having more points scored in it than the Indy @ NE game, and the OVER in that one is around 50. Jerry Logan knows.....
If the game winds up as UNDER, do we get to chortle and make fun of you, for losing $10000? I'm sure it won't hurt worse than the $10k loss, but fun is fun, and that sure would be fun.
Here's hoping, I guess! I'm definitely going to watch that game now!
Quote: MoscaIf the game winds up as UNDER, do we get to chortle and make fun of you, for losing $10000? I'm sure it won't hurt worse than the $10k loss, but fun is fun, and that sure would be fun.
He opened himself up to it, so we'll be justified in dishing it out. However, we'll have to take the "I told you sos" if he wins, especially if by a large margin.
I know I'll get blasted if my bet is a loser but no way it loses. I'll be sweating it out on Sunday.
My advice....do NOT watch this game on TV. You're health will thank you later.......
BTW is this truck driver related to Paul the Octopus?
Jerry's last lock didn't hit (though it wasn't an absolute, no way it's gonna lose bet. I put the odds of this bet winning at around 50%
No such thing as a sure thing in football.
So Jerry, according to you, you've already won, because you think you have a good bet.
Good luck...
Quote: MoscaIf the game winds up as UNDER, do we get to chortle and make fun of you, for losing $10000? I'm sure it won't hurt worse than the $10k loss, but fun is fun, and that sure would be fun.
It won't prove anything if he loses, and it won't prove anything if he wins. The fact that the line is currently where it is reflects the fact that the books consider both the over and the under to be equally likely (adjustments for the handle at any one book notwithstanding).
There's no such thing as a "lock", a "sure thing", or for that matter, "inside information" that one person has but NO ONE ELSE DOES (unless, perhaps, they're the quarterback who plans to throw six interceptions). If your surefire whizbang lock happens to come in, that doesn't mean that you actually had a lock--it means that one of two roughly equally likely events happened. It's like saying you absolutely know that the next coin flip will come up "heads", and it DOES IN FACT COME UP HEADS. Wowee! Must have been divinely inspired!
So I will neither gloat if he loses, nor give any credence to his gloating if he wins.
Quote: thecesspit"I only bet on one a week for entertainment and this one's a sure thing: Atlanta at -7. Got a dime on it. SF's dazed & confused, & the Falcons just went into NO and beat the best."
Jerry's last lock didn't hit (though it wasn't an absolute, no way it's gonna lose bet. I put the odds of this bet winning at around 50%
No such thing as a sure thing in football.
Actually, SF has been playing very well lately (winning three out of four, after losing the first five games of the season), and they have a new quarterback, who has replaced the woeful Alex Smith. The Niners also have a decent defense that keeps them in most games. I would be very reluctant to bet anything significant on this game--the Niners currently are anything BUT "dazed and confused". Despite their 3-6 record, they are only two games out of first in the division. They still have plenty to play for.
Quote: mkl654321Actually, SF has been playing very well lately (winning three out of four, after losing the first five games of the season), and they have a new quarterback, who has replaced the woeful Alex Smith. The Niners also have a decent defense that keeps them in most games. I would be very reluctant to bet anything significant on this game--the Niners currently are anything BUT "dazed and confused". Despite their 3-6 record, they are only two games out of first in the division. They still have plenty to play for.
I'll make it quite clear, Jerry Logan posted his last prediction in week 4, and that was what I quoting.
I agreed at the time that it was the better side of the bet (though not a lock), and did expect the Falcons to cover the spread against the Niners, who were looking pretty shitty at the time with A.Smith at the QB position. The Falcons won, but only by 4.
We are now in week 11, and things have changed in SF.
And this is a Rams/Falcons bet anyways. I pissed at the Rams losing last week (had them straight up for a few dollars). I never take over/under bets anyways, unless JL wants to offer 10:1 on the Under....
Quote: mkl654321It won't prove anything if he loses, and it won't prove anything if he wins. The fact that the line is currently where it is reflects the fact that the books consider both the over and the under to be equally likely (adjustments for the handle at any one book notwithstanding).
There's no such thing as a "lock", a "sure thing", or for that matter, "inside information" that one person has but NO ONE ELSE DOES (unless, perhaps, they're the quarterback who plans to throw six interceptions). If your surefire whizbang lock happens to come in, that doesn't mean that you actually had a lock--it means that one of two roughly equally likely events happened. It's like saying you absolutely know that the next coin flip will come up "heads", and it DOES IN FACT COME UP HEADS. Wowee! Must have been divinely inspired!
So I will neither gloat if he loses, nor give any credence to his gloating if he wins.
Why don't you just come out and say it mkl, instead of all that nervous dancing around you always do. You hope I'll lose, you don't think I will but you can't put your finger on why, and you know it'll be because of LUCK if I do in fact win, when AP's always claim there's no such thing as luck: only distribution or some such nonsense. Bottom line? You made that dumb post to CYA and be able to make as many stupid comments as possible from all angles no matter what happens.
If I win it's because of the info I received & good luck, and I can't reveal the info until the game is over.
Quote: JerryLoganWhy don't you just come out and say it mkl, instead of all that nervous dancing around you always do. You hope I'll lose, you don't think I will but you can't put your finger on why, and you know it'll be because of LUCK if I do in fact win, when AP's always claim there's no such thing as luck: only distribution or some such nonsense. Bottom line? You made that dumb post to CYA and be able to make as many stupid comments as possible from all angles no matter what happens.
If I win it's because of the info I received & good luck, and I can't reveal the info until the game is over.
I don't need to "cover" anything, Jerry. You might realize (after intense thought) that I didn't say that your bet was good or bad. I also said that the result, whichever way it went, wouldn't prove that the bet was good or bad, so there's no point in either your patting yourself on the back if it wins, nor in us kicking your butt if it loses.
I actually hope that you win the bet, Jerry. That's ten thousand more bucks that will eventually go into the DDB video poker machines, which means more profit for the casinos, and more $$$ for us APs.
Quote: mkl654321I don't need to "cover" anything, Jerry. You might realize (after intense thought) that I didn't say that your bet was good or bad. I also said that the result, whichever way it went, wouldn't prove that the bet was good or bad, so there's no point in either your patting yourself on the back if it wins, nor in us kicking your butt if it loses.
I actually hope that you win the bet, Jerry. That's ten thousand more bucks that will eventually go into the DDB video poker machines, which means more profit for the casinos, and more $$$ for us APs.
Here's a flash mkl: It takes you 9 weeks to earn $10,000 as a teacher, but it's about one tenth my annual bonus which I'll be getting in a few weeks and I have no trips planned for a while. So as far as more $$$ for you "AP's", why don't you just beg me for some and I'll give it a little of that "intense thought".
Quote: mkl654321It won't prove anything if he loses, and it won't prove anything if he wins. The fact that the line is currently where it is reflects the fact that the books consider both the over and the under to be equally likely (adjustments for the handle at any one book notwithstanding).
So I will neither gloat if he loses, nor give any credence to his gloating if he wins.
Heck, I'm just looking for a reason to laugh at someone. I wasn't planning on thinking about it.
Quote: WizardI was wondering what this alleged inside information might be. If he knew a defensive player was injured, I would think betting on the opposite team would be the better bet than taking the over.
The Rams sign Kurt Warner to recreate the Greatest Show on Turf?
The trucker is a bookie for the ref?
My actual guess would be that the Rams and the Falcolns have low numbers for rush attempts / gm on the defensive side with the reasoning that less rushing = more time to score points.
This has all the earmarks of around 55 points overall. Then there's my trucker.
Quote: SOOPOOI can't believe that something happened (this thread) that will make me interested in the Falcons/Rams game. Gulp- I agree with JL and if forced would take the over. And mkl- are you implying that all teachers are all more valuable to society than all company executives? Quite a conclusion... As both a doctor and University professor I could not imagine saying that I am more 'valuable' to society than a successful captain of industry.
No, I didn't say "all company executives". (I am continually amazed at why people indignantly ask me why I said something that I, in fact, never said.) I referred to specifically the profession Jerry purports to practice--trucking company executive.
And to answer your question with that in mind, I would ask you to imagine what the world would be like tomorrow if all the trucking company executives disappeared. Now imagine what it would be like if all the teachers disappeared.
For those who wish to stay on topic:Quote: FleaStiffThe thread says NFL.. so its football.
The first site I found read:
11/21 16:10 429 430 Falcons(Atlanta) Rams(StLouis)
-3-110
+3-110
43½ ov-110
I'm trying to decipher it but I do note right away that 43 1/2 seems to be the PointBreak for Over/Under and this comports well with the Simple System of 40.05 plus or minus 3.
-3-110
+3-110
43.0 ov-110
Aside from the change of 43 and a half now being 43, I don't see the odds having changed due to this discussion.
Ram's average PF & PA at Home - 20.6 to 12.6 = 33.2 points
Falcon's average PF & PA on the Road - 18.3 to 20.0 = 38.3 points
Ram's are 4-1 at home, while Falcons are 2-2 on the road.
When Atlanta has the ball:
Falcon's Passing attack is ranked 12th overall at 241 ypg
Ram's Pass defense is ranked 18th at 228 ypg
Falcon's Rushing attach is ranked 8th overall at 128 ypg
Ram's Rushing defense is ranked 6th at 98 ypg.
When St. Louis has the ball:
Ram's Passing attack is ranked 24th at 200 ypg
Falcon's pass defense is 23rd at 245 ypg
Ram's Rushing attack is ranked 18th at 106 ypg
Falcon's rushing defense is ranked 7tg at 98 ypg.
Misc:
Turnover Margin: Atlanta = +9, St. Louis = +3
Rams are 14 points short of being 8-1. (Losses by 4,2,1, & 3 point)
Excluding the blowout loss in Detroit, the Rams are giving up an average of 15.0 points a game.
Taking the Pure Points component of Jeff Sagarin's ratings for the two teams plus the home field advantage produces an expected score of . . . . (24.56 + 16.35 = 40.91 + 2.82 = 43.73 points)
Wow JL - I wouldn't be betting that much on the over if it was me. The obvious games in my mind this week was the under for tonight's game (No way Miami scores much with Thigpen), the over for Giants-Eagles, and the over for Denver-San Diego.
Quote: WizardAnyone else following this? The odds are looking good for Jerry. 23 points already, and it is only half way through the second quarter. I may have to save the serving of my humble pie for another occasion.
26 at the half. Go, Jerry!
Quote: JerryLoganWell I can't lose, but I hate wasting my time. ONE MORE FG PLEASE!!
Aw hell, I was going to have a really good laugh at your expense, too. Now I'm pulling for one more score!
Quote: WizardCongratulations. So, you said before you'd tell us the truck driver's reason this was a good bet after the game.
I'd like to think that we also would have been privileged to hear that reason if Jerry had LOST this coin flip. We'll never know :)
Quote: SOOPOO3 cheers for JL....
Yeah, but what does ten grand matter to a manly man who makes 40 billion a year....
Quote: SOOPOOHe has only stated that he makes more than you, mkl. And I for one,even though I would never bet an amount of money that would have any real impact on anything I do, get tremendous enjoyment at winning, be it this single bet we are talking about, or a session of pai gow, or whatever. And, mkl, yes I believe that if mkl continues to bet even money games while paying a vig he will probably lose over the long run. But right now, he won. And, it IS possible, that he had some information not available to you, that essentially turned his bet into an advantage play. I like this. JL is now an AP!!!!!
His claims will be up to forty billion in a few weeks (assuming he doesn't get kicked off this board, of course).
And we KNOW from reading JL's posts (which are the epitome of common sense and logic, especially since they contain NO "assertions"), that there IS NO SUCH THING as an AP.
Wizard I have to make a phone call to make sure I can write what it was that helped me make this amount of bets on the Over. It shouldn't be a big deal because it really didn't seem to be TOO much of a factor, but I'll post it as soon as I am able.
Quote: JerryLoganI told you mkl would be beside himself! God loves all men, whether they play football or speak with a lisp.
Wizard I have to make a phone call to make sure I can write what it was that helped me make this amount of bets on the Over. It shouldn't be a big deal because it really didn't seem to be TOO much of a factor, but I'll post it as soon as I am able.
You told us that, but I actually barely care one way or another, so you were wrong, Jerry. Why would I give a rat's ass why some anonymous fool won a football bet based on "inside information"? That happens thousands of times a week. People win coin flips all the time.
What matters is that you now have an extra ten grand to pump into the video poker machines. Vegas, baby! I'll come along behind you and grab some of the money that you leave.
Quote: JerryLoganI told you mkl would be beside himself! God loves all men, whether they play football or speak with a lisp.
Wizard I have to make a phone call to make sure I can write what it was that helped me make this amount of bets on the Over. It shouldn't be a big deal because it really didn't seem to be TOO much of a factor, but I'll post it as soon as I am able.
Congratulations!!!
I came across surprise info from simple shop and football talk that Justin King & Darian Stewart were both under the weather but were going to play regardless. They're important in the defensive backfield for the Rams, and against a power offense like Atlanta they'd need to be in A-1 shape, which they were not. Thus, in addition to my own game analysis which I put up prior to the game (and which held more importance for my bet than anything else) making a large bet here when I almost never do, seemed logical. I guess I just wanted to feel like I could benefit from something few others had the chance to benefit from today. Either way, it was doubly satisfying watching mkl squirm over the fact that I made the right pick (and won a few bucks along ith it!)
Quote: JerryLoganThank you guys, and the comment from johnny is really the proper way to look at it. The bet amount really doesn't make a difference to anyone but myself, but the pick and reasons for the pick do around here.
I came across surprise info from simple shop and football talk that Justin King & Darian Stewart were both under the weather but were going to play regardless. They're important in the defensive backfield for the Rams, and against a power offense like Atlanta they'd need to be in A-1 shape, which they were not. Thus, in addition to my own game analysis which I put up prior to the game (and which held more importance for my bet than anything else) making a large bet here when I almost never do, seemed logical. I guess I just wanted to feel like I could benefit from something few others had the chance to benefit from today. Either way, it was doubly satisfying watching mkl squirm over the fact that I made the right pick (and won a few bucks along ith it!)
I was rooting for you all the way, Jerry. We APs need that loser's money back in the gambling economy (and that's where it's going--the only Christmas present will be to the casinos).
I said that I wouldn't be upset if you won, in fact I said that several times, but I knew that you would have to make some asshole comment about me, even so. You're a loser who just happened to GUESS right on a football bet. Nothing more than that. You will lose that money back playing bad video poker badly.
What I find so amusing is that you thought that your trucker buddy was aware of the under-the-weather players, but that NONE OF THE SPORTS BOOKS KNEW THAT, and they didn't adjust the line accordingly!
Of course, all the above withstanding, I doubt very much that you made this bet as you described it. It was very likely more like $100--if you made a bet at all. In other words, you're probably lying.
(See how you can mock someone in just a few words instead of writing an essay??) Learn teacher, learn.....
