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Wizard
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Wizard
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January 31st, 2020 at 5:10:40 PM permalink
I ran into a fan, while I was betting props yesterday. He showed me the following parlay ticket and asked how they derived the win.



In case you can't see the image, the bet was for $300 and it needed a +195 and four -110 legs to win. It did win and paid a win of $9435 (to collect $9735). He said that this parlay calculator at Vegas Insider came up with a win of $11,455.73. I put in the numbers and agree. My own parlay calculator comes up with the same number.

The formula to arrive at that number is $300 * (2.95 * (21/11)4 - 1) = $11,755.73.

So, why did the Wynn pay $9435 only?

After dividing the Wynn win *ahem* by 2.95, we get $3,300. Dividing that by the bet amount we get 11. I then checked our own sportsbook survey and see Wynn pays 10 to 1 on a four-team parlay (or 11 for one).

So what is clearly going on here is they are going to the parlay table for the four -110 bets.

I previously thought and have said many times that as long as there was one leg in a parlay that wasn't -110, then it forced the type of calculation I did above and is seen at both the calculators linked to.

So, I was evidently wrong.

I guess my question is does this come as a surprise to anybody? Does every book go to the parlay table for as many -110 legs are in the parlay and use the conventional formula for the rest of it? Is what I'm writing about common knowledge?

I welcome all thoughts.

The question for the poll is did you know that parlays are calculated this way?
Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 31, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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January 31st, 2020 at 6:07:51 PM permalink
My understanding is also that parlay pay tables are used only if all bets are at -110. I would have calculated the payout exactly as you did. $11.755.73.

The payout made was obviously to the Wynns *big* advantage. The edge on a -110 game is 1/22 = 4.5%, but using the 10 to 1 pay table the edge on each -110 game becomes 1 - (11/16)^.25 = 8.9%. Which is why standard parlays are horrible bets, except 2 and 3 teamers.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jan 31, 2020
Itís all about making that GTA
7craps
7craps
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January 31st, 2020 at 6:09:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

So, why did the Wynn pay $9735 only?

William Hill would pay that same amount.
(Nevada - mobile app)
I noticed this back in summer of 2016 and figured all the parlay online calculators were not using actual books calculating methods, whatever that is.

A great question to ask the NGC or look up the written rules (I doubt any exist).
Of course, they (NGC, imo) are 100% in agreement with the sportsbooks here in Nevada.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 31st, 2020 at 6:11:08 PM permalink
No, I didn't. However, after seeing this, I went to the William Hill website (yes, I am aware that Wynn/Encore is not William Hill, but I couldn't find detailed rules for Wynn anywhere, although one page of rules throws a 404), and at WH sportsbooks, the rule is, calculate what the result of the spread bets would be on the parlay card first, then multiply by the actual money line bet values.
7craps
7craps
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January 31st, 2020 at 6:15:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I previously thought and have said many times that as long as there was one leg in a parlay that wasn't -110, then it forced the type of calculation I did above and is seen at both the calculators linked to.

So, I was evidently wrong.

maybe you are right and they are wrong.

The books can say anything they want (in how they figure a winning parlay payoff)
regardless if it is true or not.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 31st, 2020 at 6:50:49 PM permalink
You can disagree with the way they figured it out, but the payout amount was clearly printed unambiguously on the ticket. I am assuming that exact information would have been available to the bettor before he finalized the bet? As a concept, I steadfastly agree with the Wizard's calculations. Caveat emptor rules the day.
7craps
7craps
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January 31st, 2020 at 7:11:43 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am assuming that exact information would have been available to the bettor before he finalized the bet?

no, in Nevada, I have never seen that.
after one gives the ticket writer your money, then you get the ticket
and only right then (do not walk away until you LOVE the ticket and all on it is cool to you)
can you say you disagree with something and instantly get on their sh*t list.

next in line
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 31st, 2020 at 7:11:47 PM permalink
To catch up, I agree the ticket holder should have objected at the window when making the bet if he didn't like win amount. I doubt Gaming has anything in writing about how parlay odds are to be calculated. My objective is not to embarrass anybody but to just know what is going on.

I've been warning players against going off parlay table odds for years, except for the 3-teamer, if it pays 6 to 1. I'll now have to amend that advice to not even mixing in any number of -110 legs except one or three. Just trying to do my job at dispensing gambling advice.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
7craps
7craps
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January 31st, 2020 at 7:15:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I doubt Gaming has anything in writing about how parlay odds are to be calculated.

exactly.
That leads to the obvious question.
Why would the NGC have anything in writing on exactly how the parlays are to be paid?
you MUST be happy with your given ticket once they give it to you or 'too bad, so sad'
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 31st, 2020 at 7:20:50 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

exactly.
That leads to the obvious question.
Why would the NGC have anything in writing on exactly how the parlays are to be paid?
you MUST be happy with your given ticket once they give it to you or 'too bad, so sad'



I agree. There is usually a sign saying to check your tickets before leaving, which I respect. A good writer will often the writer will verbally recommend it. I am not even saying the Wynn is in the wrong here. I just want to know truthful information.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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