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bobbartop
bobbartop
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Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
January 29th, 2020 at 7:19:01 PM permalink
This is a good read.

https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/nba-players-pay-tribute-to-kobe/
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 30th, 2020 at 5:14:51 AM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

This is a good read.

https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/nba-players-pay-tribute-to-kobe/



Why would the lines not be a point or two lower? This was common knowledge, correct?
michael99000
michael99000
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January 30th, 2020 at 9:45:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Why would the lines not be a point or two lower? This was common knowledge, correct?



For the games that were played the afternoon and evening that he passed away, I donít think the oddsmakers were yet aware that the teams would do this. Once it became apparent every team would participate, I do think they adjusted the lines
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 30th, 2020 at 4:19:00 PM permalink
Didn't at least one of those games reset the clock to 12:00 after the two 24-second violations?
bobbartop
bobbartop
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January 30th, 2020 at 9:28:06 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Didn't at least one of those games reset the clock to 12:00 after the two 24-second violations?



I dunno. You MUST know more than I do, and if you're saying this I figure it's probably true.

I want to know why this is not tantamount to fixing a game. I understand people are mourning and want to show respect for their friend's tragic death, but not EVERYONE is so honest.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 31st, 2020 at 7:26:00 AM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

I dunno. You MUST know more than I do, and if you're saying this I figure it's probably true.

I want to know why this is not tantamount to fixing a game. I understand people are mourning and want to show respect for their friend's tragic death, but not EVERYONE is so honest.



I think its not "tantamount to fixing a game" because of lack of intent. If you believe $40,000,000 a year Damian Lillard took a 24 second violation to affect the over/under you aren't being rational.

Lets say the expected number of points not scored versus what would be scored is 2. I am not even sure if 2 points on an over under line would be enough to overcome a vig. If so, the positive EV would be very small.

I think it is interesting..... but not a big deal at all.....
bobbartop
bobbartop
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January 31st, 2020 at 8:23:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think its not "tantamount to fixing a game" because of lack of intent. If you believe $40,000,000 a year Damian Lillard took a 24 second violation to affect the over/under you aren't being rational.

Lets say the expected number of points not scored versus what would be scored is 2. I am not even sure if 2 points on an over under line would be enough to overcome a vig. If so, the positive EV would be very small.

I think it is interesting..... but not a big deal at all.....




But you don't know there's "lack of intent". Neither do I. I already conceded that they want to show respect for their fallen friend. I also said that everyone ain't so honest. What if certain "organized crime" figures got wind of it? What if certain figures originated the idea? It's 48 seconds of no scoring. And more than one game. Can't the over/under be bet on halves and quarters in some betting venues? There's a whole world of online betting. Not so insignificant.

As you said, it may not be a big deal. But I think it rational to believe that SOMEONE took advantage of it. Someone, somewhere.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 31st, 2020 at 8:42:40 AM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

But you don't know there's "lack of intent". Neither do I. I already conceded that they want to show respect for their fallen friend. I also said that everyone ain't so honest. What if certain "organized crime" figures got wind of it? What if certain figures originated the idea? It's 48 seconds of no scoring. And more than one game. Can't the over/under be bet on halves and quarters in some betting venues? There's a whole world of online betting. Not so insignificant.

As you said, it may not be a big deal. But I think it rational to believe that SOMEONE took advantage of it. Someone, somewhere.



It wasnít 48 seconds. It was 32. (24 +8). I am not disputing that someone didnít try to take advantage of it. I aver that there was nothing illegal in the players actions, nor was there anything illegal in someone using the information to make a bet.
What you should really care about is the hiding of injuries and use of Ďload managementí days that are not clear when lines are first put out.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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January 31st, 2020 at 9:19:00 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It wasnít 48 seconds. It was 32. (24 +8).




Explain this to me, I don't play basketball.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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January 31st, 2020 at 9:21:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I aver that there was nothing illegal in the players actions, nor was there anything illegal in someone using the information to make a bet.




There could have been.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.

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