Ace2
Ace2
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September 22nd, 2019 at 10:31:54 AM permalink
This is more of a math question than a sports one.

My friend and I bet every NFL game using the point spreads on Bovada. He picks all games one week then I pick the next. All weeks picks are made at once, no later than Thursday. We’re both reasonably honest, but I do usually verify the lines he uses for his week.

I get bored checking lines sometimes. What would be a a good way for me to sample them instead? For instance, if I successfully verify 5 of 16 lines, how confident can I be that all 16 are correct?
It’s all about making that GTA
DRich
DRich
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GWAE
September 22nd, 2019 at 11:18:58 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

This is more of a math question than a sports one.

My friend and I bet every NFL game using the point spreads on Bovada. He picks all games one week then I pick the next. All weeks picks are made at once, no later than Thursday. We’re both reasonably honest, but I do usually verify the lines he uses for his week.

I get bored checking lines sometimes. What would be a a good way for me to sample them instead? For instance, if I successfully verify 5 of 16 lines, how confident can I be that all 16 are correct?



If you don't trust him you shouldn't be betting at all.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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September 22nd, 2019 at 11:29:18 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

This is more of a math question than a sports one.

My friend and I bet every NFL game using the point spreads on Bovada. He picks all games one week then I pick the next. All weeks picks are made at once, no later than Thursday. We’re both reasonably honest, but I do usually verify the lines he uses for his week.

I get bored checking lines sometimes. What would be a a good way for me to sample them instead? For instance, if I successfully verify 5 of 16 lines, how confident can I be that all 16 are correct?

Feels like you need an a priori and then apply Bayes.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 22nd, 2019 at 11:34:06 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

If you don't trust him you shouldn't be betting at all.

We’re only humans. Even I have made an occasional half-point error. In my favor of course
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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September 22nd, 2019 at 3:10:36 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Feels like you need an a priori and then apply Bayes.

What if there isn’t a priori? Meaning each side will cheat as much as they think they can without getting caught.

If they know all games are being checked, they won’t cheat at all. Conversely, they’ll cheat on all 16 games if they feel nothing’s being checked. And anything in between.

Is that equivalent to a 50% chance of cheating on any single game?
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
unJon
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September 22nd, 2019 at 3:16:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

What if there isn’t a priori? Meaning each side will cheat as much as they think they can without getting caught.

If they know all games are being checked, they won’t cheat at all. Conversely, they’ll cheat on all 16 games if they feel nothing’s being checked. And anything in between.

Is that equivalent to a 50% chance of cheating on any single game?



What’s the benefit of cheating and not getting caught? What’s cost of cheating and getting caught? If you model the payoffs you should be able to find a Nash equilibrium.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 22nd, 2019 at 4:19:47 PM permalink
Benefit: More favorable line and increased probability of winning

Cost: Damaged trust I suppose. The other side may become less willing to accept future wagers

Btw I’m referring to small “adjustments” like 1/2 point. In NFL, though, it’s amazing how often that hook makes a difference.
It’s all about making that GTA
GWAE
GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:25:41 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Benefit: More favorable line and increased probability of winning

Cost: Damaged trust I suppose. The other side may become less willing to accept future wagers

Btw I’m referring to small “adjustments” like 1/2 point. In NFL, though, it’s amazing how often that hook makes a difference.



why dont you just set a rule where you each send a screen shot of the account summary. I wouldnt say, hey I don't trust you but would just say since lines move so quickly it would be easier to just get a screen shot so I knew what I was following each game.
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Zcore13
Zcore13
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September 22nd, 2019 at 8:32:30 PM permalink
It takes like 3 minutes to look at 16 lines and verify. Do you not have that kind of time?


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 22nd, 2019 at 9:19:40 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

It takes like 3 minutes to look at 16 lines and verify. Do you not have that kind of time?


ZCore13

Though this scenario is loosely based on actual events, all I care about is the math involved. Also I love mathematical estimates/shortcuts
It’s all about making that GTA

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