Poll

14 votes (77.77%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
4 votes (22.22%)

18 members have voted

Mission146
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October 6th, 2019 at 9:29:12 AM permalink
You got the Pats at +16!!??

(See how easy it is? Lol).
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 9:43:32 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You got the Pats at +16!!??

(See how easy it is? Lol).



haha I did that on purpose since it was mentioned in the other thread. hehe.
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Mission146
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October 6th, 2019 at 9:45:07 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

haha I did that on purpose since it was mentioned in the other thread. hehe.



Good one!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 1:36:42 PM permalink
5-4-1 in the early games but won our large bet. Have 2 $60 bets this afternoon/evening to lock in a win. Need 1 to win for a win today.
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GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 4:11:36 PM permalink
damn cowboys laying an egg. Last bet of the week, we have Cots +11. If they cover we have an $89 win for the week. If we lose we have a $23 loss for the week.
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PokerGrinder
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October 6th, 2019 at 5:39:54 PM permalink
For the fact that you’re basically throwing darts at a board that’s not too bad lol.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 6:39:46 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

For the fact that you’re basically throwing darts at a board that’s not too bad lol.



I should probably start doing that for fun too.
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AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2019 at 11:02:18 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I should probably start doing that for fun too.

This could be just the opertunity you need.

Tell your cute female employee you need help with something special just for her. Have her make the picks for you. You think she's special smart and lucky.

This will make her feel special and you can now get cozy with her.

Perfect opportunity for a meetoo moment.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
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October 7th, 2019 at 2:38:53 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

This could be just the opertunity you need.

Tell your cute female employee you need help with something special just for her. Have her make the picks for you. You think she's special smart and lucky.

This will make her feel special and you can now get cozy with her.

Perfect opportunity for a meetoo moment.



That is way to much work.
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DRich
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October 7th, 2019 at 7:01:50 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

ok will be skipping the Browns game, it would be a $280 bet if I kept it.



I am leaning to the Browns tonight for a small wager. This will be only my 3rd NFL wager of the season (I follow college football a lot more closely than NFL).
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GWAE
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October 7th, 2019 at 1:04:43 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am leaning to the Browns tonight for a small wager. This will be only my 3rd NFL wager of the season (I follow college football a lot more closely than NFL).



I have the browns for tonight so be careful. I have 50 on ml, 50 on +3.5, confidence pick on wov game, picked them on the local casino pickem. So basically anyone that is betting them is screwed.
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DRich
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October 7th, 2019 at 1:41:58 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I have the browns for tonight so be careful. I have 50 on ml, 50 on +3.5, confidence pick on wov game, picked them on the local casino pickem. So basically anyone that is betting them is screwed.



The line is +5 here in Las Vegas. I am still hoping for another half point but I will take the +5 before kickoff if I can't get 5.5.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GWAE
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October 7th, 2019 at 3:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

The line is +5 here in Las Vegas. I am still hoping for another half point but I will take the +5 before kickoff if I can't get 5.5.



I took it early in the week. I thought it was going to go the other direction so I wanted to get it before it hit 3 or 2.5. Apparently I was wrong about the movement and probably wrong about the game too.
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GWAE
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October 7th, 2019 at 7:18:08 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I took it early in the week. I thought it was going to go the other direction so I wanted to get it before it hit 3 or 2.5. Apparently I was wrong about the movement and probably wrong about the game too.



lol called that one. Had all my eggs in the basket. Of Course Cleveland would F me.
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PokerGrinder
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October 7th, 2019 at 7:56:08 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

lol called that one. Had all my eggs in the basket. Of Course Cleveland would F me.


I don't know if you've realized or not but Cleveland isn't very good. Btw I am not a person saying this out of nowhere I thought the hype all off season was joke.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
GWAE
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October 7th, 2019 at 8:07:03 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I don't know if you've realized or not but Cleveland isn't very good. Btw I am not a person saying this out of nowhere I thought the hype all off season was joke.



They are confusing. They stayed in the game with the rams and could have won at the end. They beat the hell out of the Ravens that really are not that good either. The Steelers should have beat the 49ers so I really though Cleveland had a chance
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Mission146
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October 8th, 2019 at 2:56:24 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

They are confusing. They stayed in the game with the rams and could have won at the end. They beat the hell out of the Ravens that really are not that good either. The Steelers should have beat the 49ers so I really though Cleveland had a chance



All due respect, but they’re not confusing, they’re just mediocre to not very good. Mediocre to not very good teams have mixed results.

The Steelers also should have beaten the Ravens, in my opinion. I think that roughing the passer call setting up a Ravens first down when it might have been 3rd and 9 with the Steelers up three was a bigger deal than people made it out to be.

That whole Division blows and Cleveland isn’t in first. My initial assumptions when I wrote Cleveland shouldn’t be the favorite to win the Division were they were overhyped AND that the Division would be pretty good.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DRich
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October 8th, 2019 at 7:37:07 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I don't know if you've realized or not but Cleveland isn't very good. Btw I am not a person saying this out of nowhere I thought the hype all off season was joke.



I am originally from Cleveland and I agree the hype was a joke. They will end up around a .500 team.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GWAE
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October 13th, 2019 at 8:23:59 AM permalink
Crap.. forgot to post final last week. Here is last weeks info just a little late.



Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Week 3
7-6
+25
$770.00
+$197.13
Week 4
3-7
-11
$360.00
-132.81
Week 5
7-5-1
+4
$540.00
+89.51
Overall
35-26-3
+74
$2260.00
+$662.12





Value Record P&L
Home Team
6-13
-$176.84
Road Team
25-10-1
+$890.79
Dog
22-13
+$549.25
Favorite
12-13-1
+$217.50
Home Dog
2-4
-$103.56
Home Favorite
5-8
-$9.57
Road Dog
20-9
+$534.81
Road Favorite
8-4-1
+$225.41

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GWAE
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October 13th, 2019 at 9:13:58 AM permalink
picks are in. We have $540 in action with a max profit of $477.77. We also have our largest wager of the year going with Seattle. Picks game had them at -1.5. I got them at -1 but the line is moving and now is available at pk -105. There must be a lot of money coming in on Cleveland. Lets hope they are wrong. We also have larger bets on Steelers and Packers. I will get to have extra reasons to cheer on the Steelers tonight. Happy positive variance to us all.

$20 Buccaneers +2.5
$50 Bengals +10.5
$130 Seahawks -1
$30 Chiefs -3.5
$40 Vikings -3
$20 Redskins -5
$50 49ers +3
$40 Cowboys -7
$10 Titans +1.5
$70 Steelers +7
$80 Packers -4
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GWAE
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October 13th, 2019 at 10:42:53 AM permalink
Yikes. Seattle game looks like it could be trouble.
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GWAE
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October 13th, 2019 at 1:33:28 PM permalink
Happy with the afternoon games. Went 3-3 but won 3 large bets and lost 3 small bets
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GWAE
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October 13th, 2019 at 4:36:43 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Happy with the afternoon games. Went 3-3 but won 3 large bets and lost 3 small bets



well 4pm games went crappy but didnt hurt us too badly. went 1-3 but we won the 50 and lost a 10, 30, 40.

We have 2 larger bets going tonight and monday night. If we lose both we are only down 27 for the week but if we win both we will be up a few hundred.
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GWAE
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October 13th, 2019 at 7:22:35 PM permalink
declaring the Steelers the winners and going to bed. If I wake up tomorrow with them losing the game then I am ending this game and betting it all on red.

We still have the packers tomorrow night. If packers win then we are up $240 and if they lose we are up $97 so its another winning week.


HEY IS ANYONE READING THIS
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PokerGrinder
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October 13th, 2019 at 9:20:33 PM permalink
I am, although I’m not sure why lol.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
GWAE
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October 14th, 2019 at 2:56:55 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I am, although I’m not sure why lol.



Haha why not. I said I would buy you a dinner too if we win. That way I can fatten you back up
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unJon
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October 14th, 2019 at 4:27:32 AM permalink
I’m reading. I find this an interesting experiment and a very generous offer by you. So even though I don’t expect to attend the Spring Fling and take advantage, thank you for doing this.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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October 14th, 2019 at 5:27:22 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE




HEY IS ANYONE READING THIS



I am. I've given you multiple suggestions. Multiple critiques. MULTIPLE THANKS!

By the way, do you have a 'win stop'? Like when you've won enough for the dinner, do you keep risking the money anyway?
Joeman
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October 14th, 2019 at 7:28:51 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

HEY IS ANYONE READING THIS

I'm reading. It looks like you have it set on cruise control. I've got 5 months to figure out how to convince Mrs. Joeman that I should go to Spring Fling and get my free dinner! ;)
Last edited by: Joeman on Oct 14, 2019
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
PokerGrinder
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October 14th, 2019 at 7:31:42 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Haha why not. I said I would buy you a dinner too if we win. That way I can fatten you back up


I must have missed that, I thought the free roll was only for the WoV picks game.

Anyways go Patriots!
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
GWAE
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October 14th, 2019 at 8:42:35 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am. I've given you multiple suggestions. Multiple critiques. MULTIPLE THANKS!

By the way, do you have a 'win stop'? Like when you've won enough for the dinner, do you keep risking the money anyway?



Haha yes I know. People on this forum have lives on Sunday. Makes me sad. My sundays are filled with nothing other than football. Wait, that doesnt sound half bad when I write it

I just wanted to make sure anyone was readjng. Although I could have noticed that by the views. O well
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GWAE
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October 14th, 2019 at 8:43:44 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I’m reading. I find this an interesting experiment and a very generous offer by you. So even though I don’t expect to attend the Spring Fling and take advantage, thank you for doing this.



I wish I could edit my first post becaus I added a playoff game free roll too with winnings (if there are any)
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GWAE
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October 14th, 2019 at 8:54:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am. I've given you multiple suggestions. Multiple critiques. MULTIPLE THANKS!

By the way, do you have a 'win stop'? Like when you've won enough for the dinner, do you keep risking the money anyway?



Oh and for a stop win, that is interesting. If we win tonight we will be around $900. It would take 2 really bad weeks to knock us out. Do I stop now, pat for dinner, and have a $300 free roll for playoff game or do we push on and hope for a $1000 free roll playoff game.

Just not sure... or maybe something in the middle. Take some and bump the unit down to $5.
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PokerGrinder
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October 14th, 2019 at 9:40:27 AM permalink
I’d say set a win goal where you bank half the winnings and then continue betting with the other half. #gamblesmart 🤣
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
DRich
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October 14th, 2019 at 9:43:54 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Haha yes I know. People on this forum have lives on Sunday. Makes me sad. My sundays are filled with nothing other than football. Wait, that doesnt sound half bad when I write it



For me it is Saturday. Saturday is football only from 6am until bed around 10pm.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GWAE
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October 14th, 2019 at 12:33:53 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I’d say set a win goal where you bank half the winnings and then continue betting with the other half. #gamblesmart 🤣



I guess I should decide how much to throw at dinner, how much would be a nice playoff free roll and go from there. Lets wait to see what happens tonight and I will make a call.
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Mission146
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October 15th, 2019 at 5:54:47 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

declaring the Steelers the winners and going to bed. If I wake up tomorrow with them losing the game then I am ending this game and betting it all on red.

We still have the packers tomorrow night. If packers win then we are up $240 and if they lose we are up $97 so its another winning week.


HEY IS ANYONE READING THIS



Of course!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxelWolf
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October 15th, 2019 at 2:54:07 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

That way I can fatten you back up

No doubt that's in preparation for when you go on your carnivore diet.

Riggs would be jealous.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gordonm888
Administrator
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October 15th, 2019 at 3:19:43 PM permalink
If you remove Romes' 10 losses for not participating, the contestants are picking at a 55.8% rate. Is that just variance? Or are we reasonably sharp bettors? Or, has this just been a 6 week period where it was easy to find actual errors/inefficiencies in the NFL lines?

And, NO, it has not been primarily due to stale lines, IMO. GWAE's success is actually a major indicator of that because he is not betting stale lines.

Your decision as to whether to stop or keep gambling hinges on whether we have been (1) lucky or (2)good or (3) took advantage of some changes in the NFL and its teams that the books were slow to tumble to.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
PokerGrinder
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October 15th, 2019 at 3:36:50 PM permalink
Not to be mean but this is positive variance. The picks game is not made up of 30 people picking 2% worse than actual professional sports bettors.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
GWAE
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October 17th, 2019 at 6:57:38 PM permalink
What a week. We actually had a losing record but we won all bu 1 of our big bets and lost mostly small bets so we ended up with another positive week.



Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Week 3
7-6
+25
$770.00
+$197.13
Week 4
3-7
-11
$360.00
-132.81
Week 5
7-5-1
+4
$540.00
+89.51
Week 6
5-6
+14
$540.00
+97.11
Overall
40-32-3
+88
$2800.00
+$759.23





Value Record P&L
Home Team
7-16
-$277.21
Road Team
29-13-1
+$1036.44
Dog
25-15
+$668.55
Favorite
14-17-1
+$90.68
Home Dog
2-5
-$123.56
Home Favorite
6-12
-$59.57
Road Dog
23-10
+$674.11
Road Favorite
9-5-1
+$283.59
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GWAE
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October 20th, 2019 at 9:02:57 AM permalink
Bets have been placed. One of our lower action weeks so far. Only $420 in action. I am not sure if there have been more bets on O/U than normal or if people are on opposite sides more than normal. Dolphins and Patriots are our 2 big bets. Lets hope that we stay on the good streak and add to the pot.

$50 Colts -1
$80 Dolphins +17
$40 Vikings -2.5
$40 Packers -5
$20 Jags -4.5
$10 Falcons +4
$40 49ers -10
$10 Ravens +3
$30 Bears -4
$20 Cowboys -3
$60 Patriots -9.5
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GWAE
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October 20th, 2019 at 12:31:17 PM permalink
Miami looking good until these last few min. Gonna come down to the wire. I feel a push in our future
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GWAE
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October 20th, 2019 at 2:01:56 PM permalink
I haven't looked at the official numbers but I think we were 5-2 and have locked up a profit already. Stupid 49ers should have had way more than 9. Stupid them
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SOOPOO
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October 20th, 2019 at 2:20:52 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Miami looking good until these last few min. Gonna come down to the wire. I feel a push in our future



You felt wrong. I know I really have no ability to beat 50%, but the Bills line just seemed ridiculous. Fish were up at halftime. Not sure who Bills play next week, but likely going against them again. I think they are just plain overrated.
GWAE
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October 20th, 2019 at 2:35:04 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You felt wrong. I know I really have no ability to beat 50%, but the Bills line just seemed ridiculous. Fish were up at halftime. Not sure who Bills play next week, but likely going against them again. I think they are just plain overrated.



Very pleased that I felt wrong. My feeling should have been a lock that we were winning.
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GWAE
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October 21st, 2019 at 5:02:43 PM permalink
gah... gotta root for the patriots tonight. Right now we are sitting at +70 for the week. Patriots covering puts us around +180 for the week. If that happens I will be locking up a win for us and will continue to play with the rest.
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GWAE
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October 21st, 2019 at 7:46:51 PM permalink
Going to bed. I think we can put this in the win column.
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GWAE
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October 22nd, 2019 at 12:28:05 PM permalink
Very good week for us. Our total win for the year has eclipsed $900. I have made the decision to pull some of the money for another free roll and for spring fling dinner. I am going to take $400 out for those and that will still allow us enough money to play for at least 1 more week. I am not sure yet how it will be allocated but we are going to at least have a guaranteed win this year.



Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Week 3
7-6
+25
$770.00
+$197.13
Week 4
3-7
-11
$360.00
-132.81
Week 5
7-5-1
+4
$540.00
+89.51
Week 6
5-6
+14
$540.00
+97.11
Week 7
8-3
+24
$420.00
+181.43
Overall
48-35-3
+112
$3220.00
+$940.66



I will do the other tables later if I can. I am about to get on a plane so gotta put laptop away.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
Thanked by
Mission146
October 26th, 2019 at 7:36:20 PM permalink
flying home tonight on red eye. I am not sure if I will be able to get bets in this week. I should get home around 9am as long as there arent any delays. If I get home before 10 I will have time but if we are later then I will not.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
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