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18 members have voted

MaxPen
MaxPen
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September 15th, 2019 at 7:22:05 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

This!

Ugh I agree with Axel, I feel gross now.



Yeah, I was wondering if Axel was going to come up for air.
Joeman
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September 16th, 2019 at 5:56:17 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Even with the terrible patriots bet we have locked in a win for week 2. currently sitting at $727.81 with $670 wagered. There are still $180 in wagers outstanding. Stale lines did not impact any picks in the first slate of games.

Cool freeroll, GWAE! I'm following though I doubt I will be able to make it out to the Spring Fling.

I have noticed that for two weeks in a row now, the most lopsided games were both stinkers: 17 units on the Broncos Week 1 (which you fortunately didn't get booked), and 10 units on the Dolphins Week 2. I'm no handicapper, but I sense a trend here... ;)
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
GWAE
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September 16th, 2019 at 7:20:33 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Cool freeroll, GWAE! I'm following though I doubt I will be able to make it out to the Spring Fling.

I have noticed that for two weeks in a row now, the most lopsided games were both stinkers: 17 units on the Broncos Week 1 (which you fortunately didn't get booked), and 10 units on the Dolphins Week 2. I'm no handicapper, but I sense a trend here... ;)



I thought about not taking the most lopsided game each week. May be a good thought. I am going to go through last years game and see if the same thing happened last year.
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GWAE
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September 16th, 2019 at 7:23:10 AM permalink
oh, also I have expanded this free roll to include everyone in the picks game. An amount has not been determined yet, I will do that once we see if there is a profit. If there is a large profit then there will be a large playoff bonus.

Quote: GWAE

Incase no one cared to look at my other thread. I am using the aggregate bets to make actual wagers. It is a free roll for dinner at the spring fling. Odds are I will go busto sooner than later. If I end the season with a profit I am going to add funds to a playoff picks game. I can not remember what we had last year but I am going to add to the pot. Only those that are in the season long picks game will be eligible for my added playoffs bonus that will be determined based on the final profit. If I go busto then there is no bonus. I will be betting current lines but using picks on stale lines so it will probably end poorly but you never know and besides it is a free roll for everyone so who cares. But for what it is worth. In week 1 there was only 1 game that was affected by the line difference and current wager was on the right side of it. I cant remember which one it was but I think it was the chargers where everyone had them at -6 but current line was -5.5.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/33614-spring-fling-wov-picks-game-free-roll/4/#post739812

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AxelWolf
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September 16th, 2019 at 8:07:17 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

This!

Ugh I agree with Axel, I feel gross now.

we'll go have a couple of cupcakes and raid your parents candy store, you'll feel much better.🎂🎂🎂🎂
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
PokerGrinder
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September 16th, 2019 at 8:31:21 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

we'll go have a couple of cupcakes and raid your parents candy store, you'll feel much better.🎂🎂🎂🎂


Popcorn store thank you very much!
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
gordonm888
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September 16th, 2019 at 12:36:41 PM permalink
In Week 2. I picked the Patriots as my confidence pick - so I did my part to diminish the amount you wagered on the Dolphins.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
GWAE
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September 16th, 2019 at 12:46:07 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

In Week 2. I picked the Patriots as my confidence pick - so I did my part to diminish the amount you wagered on the Dolphins.



You know what's funny is I only picked the dolphins be cause I thought a lot of people were going to pick Patriots and i was trying to go opposite.
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GWAE
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September 16th, 2019 at 8:17:23 PM permalink
Another decent week. Second week in a row that we benefited from stale lines. We would have lost the Bears game on the picks lines but my line was 2 so we had a push. Year to date we are +5 units on stale lines.

Here is a chart for the season so far.


Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Overall
18-8-2
+59
$1130.00
+$508.29
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AxelWolf
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September 16th, 2019 at 8:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Popcorn store thank you very much!

They obviously knew better than to tell you about their secret candy store.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
unJon
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September 16th, 2019 at 8:22:04 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Another decent week. Second week in a row that we benefited from stale lines. We would have lost the Bears game on the picks lines but my line was 2 so we had a push. Year to date we are +5 units on stale lines.

Here is a chart for the season so far.


Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Overall
18-8-2
+59
$1130.00
+$508.29

Just quit now.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GWAE
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September 16th, 2019 at 8:31:05 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: GWAE

Another decent week. Second week in a row that we benefited from stale lines. We would have lost the Bears game on the picks lines but my line was 2 so we had a push. Year to date we are +5 units on stale lines.

Here is a chart for the season so far.


Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Overall
18-8-2
+59
$1130.00
+$508.29

Just quit now.



tempting but where is the fun in that.
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Romes
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September 16th, 2019 at 11:13:05 PM permalink
Would be pretty hilarious if the "secret sauce" is the collective of our game. Next year all of us will be betting these numbers =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 8:25:45 AM permalink
Here are the current bets for this week. I did not bet the afternoon games yet or the Rams game. There are some big bets this afternoon and a huge one on the rams so I am going to hold off to see how this afternoon goes. BTW... damn people keep betting against the patriots. I should ban any betting on the patriots game. If I bet all of the games right now there would be $820 in action. I have $750 in the account for this game so I do not have enough to make all wagers. $508 in winnings and $250 of my money. Since we had a decent 2 weeks I would like to keep future action to only "house money" ;-) I may leave the rams game off completely with such a large bet. We'll see. 1 thing to not, all home teams are favored but we are betting on all away teams.

$80 Broncos +7.5 -120
$100 Lions +5 -120
$50 Ravens +5.5 -110
$70 Bengals +6.5 -110
$20 Falcons +1 -110
$30 Raiders +9 -110
$50 Jets +21.5 -105
$20 Dolphins +22 -110

$420 in action right now.
Here is a list of other games that should be bet on depending on the afternoon.
$90 Giants +5.5 -110
$100 Seahawks -5 -115
$10 Chargers -3 -110
$40 Steelers +6.5 -110
$160 Rams -3.5 -110
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unJon
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September 22nd, 2019 at 8:29:45 AM permalink
Rams were -3 in pick em game. Currently -3.5. I would not have you make the bet unless you find it at -3.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 8:34:01 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Rams were -3 in pick em game. Currently -3.5. I would not have you make the bet unless you find it at -3.



yes that is one of the reasons that I am thinking of not taking it. I have not yet. The point of this is to bet as the consensus even with the stale lines but I don't think I want to make our largest bet of the year on one that crosses the 3. If we have a good day then I will be betting it anyways. If we struggle then I probably will not.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 8:44:36 AM permalink
I am wasting $15 in parlays this week also. I am doing $5 1pm parlay based on our picks, $5 4pm based on our picks, and $5 all picks. Using my money for these and has nothing to do with contest. Just want to have fun.
$5 to win $843
$5 to win $2938 (had to leave off rams and jets because of max teams. I guess if they all win I can let it ride on the rams)
$4 to win $114.73
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GWAE
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Mission146
September 22nd, 2019 at 11:54:51 AM permalink
Whelp we better get some come backs or game might be over. May be unlikely since it's all the favorites winning.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 2:29:31 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Whelp we better get some come backs or game might be over. May be unlikely since it's all the favorites winning.



It turned out decent. Now i have to decide what to do with the Rams game tonight. I am leaning towards skipping it. A lot of people took them at -3.0. Current line is -3.5, not only that it is -125. Buying the .5 makes it -155. Considering just taking the money line at -185 but maybe that defeats the purpose of this game?
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beachbumbabs
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September 22nd, 2019 at 3:04:35 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

It turned out decent. Now i have to decide what to do with the Rams game tonight. I am leaning towards skipping it. A lot of people took them at -3.0. Current line is -3.5, not only that it is -125. Buying the .5 makes it -155. Considering just taking the money line at -185 but maybe that defeats the purpose of this game?



Maybe I'm missing your point, but 17-1 on Rams at -3, I don't see a whole lot of difference. You're giving up the push at -3.5, which is a semi-big thing, I guess, but I would want you to bet at least a little on it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
GWAE
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gordonm888
September 22nd, 2019 at 3:07:51 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Maybe I'm missing your point, but 17-1 on Rams at -3, I don't see a whole lot of difference. You're giving up the push at -3.5, which is a semi-big thing, I guess, but I would want you to bet at least a little on it.



I am no betting expert as I am very knew to it, but I always thought -3 to -3.5 is huge difference. The other issue at hand is that the -3.5 which is worse is -125 instead of -110. If it was -3.5 -110 and I could buy the .5 and get it at -3 for -120 then I would be ok with that. Right now the afternoon games are big losers sooooooooooo we will have to see what happens.
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unJon
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September 22nd, 2019 at 3:48:54 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I am no betting expert as I am very knew to it, but I always thought -3 to -3.5 is huge difference. The other issue at hand is that the -3.5 which is worse is -125 instead of -110. If it was -3.5 -110 and I could buy the .5 and get it at -3 for -120 then I would be ok with that. Right now the afternoon games are big losers sooooooooooo we will have to see what happens.



It’s mostly -4 everywhere now and trending to -4.5.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 3:51:51 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

It’s mostly -4 everywhere now and trending to -4.5.



yep I have it at -4 now but at -110, -3.5 -120, or -3.0 -150
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 4:09:15 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

yep I have it at -4 now but at -110, -3.5 -120, or -3.0 -150



I took it -4 for $160. Had a terrible afternoon on these picks so this will basically be an all or nothing bet. If we lose this bet the game will be over.

Good Luck to us.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 4:50:29 PM permalink
ok a bunch riding on this rams game. We will either be down around $100 for the day or up around $200. If we lose we will play on to next week but bankroll will be a little reduced so there might not be enough to cover all wagers. I can probably do some if bets to make it work. Lets just hope for a win. At least I get to strongly root against Cleveland. I have them on the under for the season as well so its a double rooting interest.
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DRich
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:05:33 PM permalink
I am tempted to take the Browns just because of the huge consensus on the Rams. The bookies tend to be a little smarter than the public.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:10:05 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am tempted to take the Browns just because of the huge consensus on the Rams. The bookies tend to be a little smarter than the public.



The line keeps moving. I am seeing -5 now. There must be some serious money coming in on the rams. Across country and prime time. Home team seems like the smart bet here.
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DRich
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:18:28 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

The line keeps moving. I am seeing -5 now. There must be some serious money coming in on the rams. Across country and prime time. Home team seems like the smart bet here.



I just took +4.5.

How abut your Pitt Panthers yesterday? That was probably the best game of the day. I only saw the end yesterday and it was great so I went back and watched the whole game this morning. Awesome game.
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DRich
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:22:52 PM permalink
Cleveland has 7 starters out for this game. I guess I should have looked at that before I just bet it.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:23:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I just took +4.5.

How abut your Pitt Panthers yesterday? That was probably the best game of the day. I only saw the end yesterday and it was great so I went back and watched the whole game this morning. Awesome game.



It was tremendous. I was going to post in the other thread that my lock of the day was Pit and was even taking them straight up. I got them at +305 but only for $50. I chickened out. I know people don't like hearing about wagers after the fact but whatever. They are my home team and alma mater so I bet them with my heart.
They played so well against Penn State and have beaten a ranked team each year for the last few years.

I had baseball games during the day so I almost didnt watch it. I overheard someone say it was 21-0 so I figured they would win. I then saw them down and almost just cheated and looked at the score but I decided to watch. So glad that I did
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DRich
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:34:00 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

It was tremendous. I was going to post in the other thread that my lock of the day was Pit and was even taking them straight up. I got them at +305 but only for $50. I chickened out. I know people don't like hearing about wagers after the fact but whatever. They are my home team and alma mater so I bet them with my heart.
They played so well against Penn State and have beaten a ranked team each year for the last few years.

I had baseball games during the day so I almost didnt watch it. I overheard someone say it was 21-0 so I figured they would win. I then saw them down and almost just cheated and looked at the score but I decided to watch. So glad that I did



You have the Blue Hens at home this weekend. I would guess you will be favored by about 19.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:38:13 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

You have the Blue Hens at home this weekend. I would guess you will be favored by about 19.



and will lose by 12. That is how we roll.
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 5:40:07 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

and will lose by 12. That is how we roll.



speaking of Pitt. I will be rooting for Aaron Donald. His High School played against my local so I used to watch him, then got to see him at Pitt. Now I need him to crush it tonight
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GWAE
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September 22nd, 2019 at 8:20:26 PM permalink
these bastards better not go for 2.... $300 play.... stupid sports betting. I should be sleeping

ETA: Wholly hell that was close.
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beachbumbabs
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GWAE
September 22nd, 2019 at 8:30:20 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

these bastards better not go for 2.... $300 play.... stupid sports betting. I should be sleeping

ETA: Wholly hell that was close.



Lol. Glad the LAR bet won, since I pushed for it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
GWAE
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Romes
September 22nd, 2019 at 8:58:36 PM permalink
Wowsers that was close. Was not looking good during the afternoon games but it turned out to be a good week again. There is nothing for tomorrows game so here is this weeks update. Stale lines did not play a role in any games this week.



Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Week 3
7-6
+25
$770.00
+$197.13
Overall
25-14-2
+84
$1900.00
+$705.42


Here is a table with some other data. It is not 100% accurate because my week 1 data is incomplete and I do not feel like going back to get everything exact. Too much data? Should I remove this?


Value Record P&L
Home Team
3-6
-$164.07
Road Team
21-8
+$731.32
Dog
16-9
+$336.14
Favorite
8-5
+$353.91
Home Dog
2-2
-$23.56
Home Favorite
2-4
-$16.80
Road Dog
14-7
+$359.70
Road Favorite
7-1
+$370.71
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AxelWolf
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September 23rd, 2019 at 9:07:33 PM permalink
GWAE 33% last place

LOL
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
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September 24th, 2019 at 11:02:51 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

GWAE 33% last place

LOL



Whoop whoop
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GWAE
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September 29th, 2019 at 10:06:14 AM permalink
This week there was a lot of betting against each other. I believe there are 4 games with equal action on each side. Not only that but it was something like 6 or 7 bets on each side so our action this week is greatly reduced. I am also not betting the Monday night game as we only have 1 unit it on it and I would prefer to wrap this week tonight. I will be busy tomorrow night and wont be able to update.

So this week is listed below. We have $350 in action. As usual we have a few games with line movements. Most notably are the Raiders and Jags as they got moved of the of the 3 and 7. The week will basically ride on how chiefs and raiders do. If we win those games we are in the black. If we lose both we are in the red. Happy positive variance to us all.

$30 Texans -5
$10 Ravens -7
$40 Dolphins +14.5
$70 Raiders +6
$90 Chiefs -7
$50 Patriots -7
$10 Rams -9
$30 Jaguars +2.5
$20 Saints +2.5
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GWAE
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September 29th, 2019 at 1:09:00 PM permalink
Looks like its going to be our first losing week. Good thing we built up a little in the first few.
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GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 4:35:07 AM permalink
First bad week that we have had but it was not detrimental. We are still up for the season. I am late to update this as I have had a busy week. I will have this weeks bets up as soon as they are posted. I am a little disappointed in the screw up with the lines. I wish Mission would have just made the correcting as it was an obvious error. I very well may just skip this week as everything is going to be skewed.



Week Record Units +/- Wagered P&L
Week 1
10-3-1
+38
$480.00
+$340.91
Week 2
8-5-1
+21
$650.00
+$167.38
Week 3
7-6
+25
$770.00
+$197.13
Week 4
3-7
-11
$360.00
-132.81
Overall
28-21-2
+73
$2260.00
+$572.61





Value Record P&L
Home Team
3-10
-$254.07
Road Team
24-11
+$818.51
Dog
19-11
+$513.33
Favorite
8-10
+$163.91
Home Dog
2-3
-$63.56
Home Favorite
2-7
-$66.80
Road Dog
17-8
+$456.89
Road Favorite
7-3
+$230.71

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Mission146
Mission146
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October 6th, 2019 at 7:50:51 AM permalink
Like I said in the other thread, that game is the only one skewed. I would just disregard it completely and play as if the others are the only ones.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 7:55:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Like I said in the other thread, that game is the only one skewed. I would just disregard it completely and play as if the others are the only ones.



I might but IMO it is not the only one skewed. By picking this game you are now not picking another game so it skews 2 games per person.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mission146
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:00:34 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I might but IMO it is not the only one skewed. By picking this game you are now not picking another game so it skews 2 games per person.



True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:11:01 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.



maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mission146
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:13:07 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.



maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.



LOL . That's a very good point! I'd just take the unintended low variance week and stay away from 49ers game. Besides, it's one thing for the group to be wrong and another thing to make an intentionally awful pick.

You could even Amend your game to only make Picks if the actual spread you're getting is within two either way of what we got to pick, or something. Thus. the 49ers game would not qualify anyway.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:16:20 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.



maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.



"people knew anything'? Do you actually believe that the WoV consensus has some advantage over the bookies? The only possible advantage is the use of stale lines, which you won't be able to bet on, anyway.

Remember, you are kindly freerolling for us, so do what makes you feel good! I'd say bet on all the games you normally would have except the Browns game, if you want an opinion. Browns 24 49ers 21.
GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:25:24 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: GWAE

Quote: Mission146

True, but it seems like it doesn't skew the Picks that ARE made. It just suggests that a different additional Pick might have been made, but not that the other four picks would NOT have been made. I'd say the only skewed thing on other existing Picks is that some of them may have been Confidence, but now are not.



maybe I should just bet them all as made as I have done that each week so far anyways. we were like 3-7 so not like people knew anything last week.



"people knew anything'? Do you actually believe that the WoV consensus has some advantage over the bookies? The only possible advantage is the use of stale lines, which you won't be able to bet on, anyway.

Remember, you are kindly freerolling for us, so do what makes you feel good! I'd say bet on all the games you normally would have except the Browns game, if you want an opinion. Browns 24 49ers 21.



HAHA no of course not. I know there is no advantage. If anything it is probably worse off but I have had fun doing it. However I am hoping it turns out very good and I can offer a $500 playoff free roll.

In my local casino picks game I did pick the Browns to win the game (Not done on lines, just straight up) so I am hoping for a big win.
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GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:28:47 AM permalink
ok will be skipping the Browns game, it would be a $280 bet if I kept it.
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GWAE
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October 6th, 2019 at 8:59:44 AM permalink
Here is what we have this week. Some line changes with the cowboys taking us past the 3. So far this year we are +5 units because of stale lines. we are 0-0-2 instead of
0-2-0. Lets hope for some positive variance this week and get back on the winning track. The money is spread out pretty good this week. We only have 1 game with a larger bet and 2 games with $60 bets.

$40 Ravens -3
$40 Bears -6.5
$20 Cardinals +3
$30 Jaguars +3
$40 Giants +5.5
$40 Patriots -16
$40 Eagles -14
$90 Saints -3
$20 Texans -4.5
$20 Titans -3
$40 Broncos +5.5
$60 Cowboys -3.5
$60 Colts +11

$540 in action with a potential win of $481.17
Last edited by: GWAE on Oct 6, 2019
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
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