Random-ish sports bets
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3 members have voted
This thread is NOT for touts or anyone trying to sell picks or a system. This is just a place for members that want to share a bet they made but wouldn’t otherwise want to start a brand new thread to do so.
If people want to explain why they made the picks that’s fine. But be prepared for the Forum Members to make fun of you.
I’m an occasional sports gambler, mostly during NFL season. I do it for entertainment purposes. I have a job that pays me a lot of money every year and gambling is a way to have fun and blow off steam.
I am an overall net loser sports betting. I do not think I have an edge: those that saw my pics last year in the WoV Picks thread can attest that I do not have an edge. I like to make an occasional long shot parlay and otherwise just pick games based on my gut.
I’ll start it off with a five leg parlay:
One bet I liked finding today was Texas A&M 1h +10.5 and parlay +10.5 and u33 (actually put that in about six different three-team parlays to get it closer to -109)
Nice find. I only see +10 now.Quote: TomG
One bet I liked finding today was Texas A&M 1h +10.5 and parlay +10.5 and u33 (actually put that in about six different three-team parlays to get it closer to -109)
New Mexico State at (2) Alabama
bet Alabama
Money Line (William Hill) 1111/9999901 (about 1/900)
(WH may not take a large bet)
could lose. bet only kids college fund. Probability of a Wisconsin win: 99.9%
Central Michigan at (16) Wisconsin
bet Wisconsin
Money Line (William Hill) 1/400
parlay instead? about 1/277
pizza, beer and parlay
Quote: 7crapscan't lose. bet the farm Probability of an Alabama win: 100%
Is Zenking back? No bet is 100% to win today.
Quote: 7crapscan't lose. bet the farm Probability of an Alabama win: 100%
New Mexico State at (2) Alabama
bet Alabama
Money Line (William Hill) 1111/9999901 (about 1/900)
(WH may not take a large bet)
could lose. bet only kids college fund. Probability of a Wisconsin win: 99.9%
Central Michigan at (16) Wisconsin
bet Wisconsin
Money Line (William Hill) 1/400
parlay instead? about 1/277
pizza, beer and parlay
Do you earn any 'comps' or anything like that for betting $5000 to win $5?
Disclaimer: I’m not a pro sports better. I don’t have a system. I do this for entertainment.
yes. comps with card at casino, or at least $5 for online wager (parlays rebate more than straight bets)Quote: SOOPOODo you earn any 'comps' or anything like that for betting $5000 to win $5?
you are not specific here.Quote: DRichIs Zenking back? No bet is 100% to win today.
Alabama beating NM ST with their 3rd string is only 99.999% win probability.
1st team, Alabama would NEVER lose.
simple math,
not like horse racing where owners and other jockeys complain about the winning horse
and corrupt videos are used to say the winning horse is disqualified. LOL
Quote: 7crapsyou are not specific here.
Alabama beating NM ST with their 3rd string is only 99.999% win probability.
1st team, Alabama would NEVER lose.
simple math,
not like horse racing where owners and other jockeys complain about the winning horse
and corrupt videos are used to say the winning horse is disqualified. LOL
Have you ever heard of games getting rescheduled to another day or postponed due to weather? There is no guarantee that a team will win TODAY as was claimed.
MLB
Mets at home +120
LAD do not have to win and need to stay healthy and could barely beat Baltimore at home.
Have lost last 3 with Kershaw starting.
Mets have to win
and books always have LAD at faves with Ker on the mound starting.
the public are such fools to always follow that one... and they do.
I will be hoping the line moves and plan on betting at least $2 (not how much one bets - that they bet matters)
on the Mets to win
and +1.5 at -150 (more to bet here)
It doesn't happen much in NFL, but perhaps the spread is big enough to make for a + ev correlated parlay. I'm pretty sure that the books are afraid that is the case.
Someone else can try to figure out if they are right.
Quote: RigondeauxI noticed that the Patriots/Dolphins total has been left off the parlay cards in 3/3 places I checked.
It doesn't happen much in NFL, but perhaps the spread is big enough to make for a + ev correlated parlay. I'm pretty sure that the books are afraid that is the case.
Someone else can try to figure out if they are right.
Interesting. Online site letting me parlay line with total.
Quote: 7crapsanother 99.9% winning money line bet today being offered
MLB
Mets at home +120
LAD do not have to win and need to stay healthy and could barely beat Baltimore at home.
Sorry, but I have to root against anyone claiming a 99.9% winner. Dodgers up 4-1 in the 6th.
Early NFL games looking ok. Packers and Ravens unders will be close, same with Giants teasers and over. Lost everything on the Dolphins. Looking to win everything else -- Lions and under, Packers, Cardinals
late games: Raiders +7 and +4 Ev 1h; Rams 1h pick and under 27 and under 53.5; Falcons +110 and under 53.5
Quote: TomG15 Sep 2019
Early NFL games looking ok. Packers and Ravens unders will be close, same with Giants teasers and over. Lost everything on the Dolphins. Looking to win everything else -- Lions and under, Packers, Cardinals
late games: Raiders +7 and +4 Ev 1h; Rams 1h pick and under 27 and under 53.5; Falcons +110 and under 53.5
Good luck on late games. My site has Falcons under at 52.5. Hate being too late on the side I like.
I’ve got a flyer on Detroit +190, under 42 in the Broncos/Packers game and Falcons +1.5. Wish I had jumped in on Falcons earlier, but I’m scratching my head at Falcons being a dog here at all.
Quote: unJonI can’t get action down on parlaying line and total on Pats and Cowboy large lines. Oh well.
I’ve got a flyer on Detroit +190, under 42 in the Broncos/Packers game and Falcons +1.5. Wish I had jumped in on Falcons earlier, but I’m scratching my head at Falcons being a dog here at all.
what parlay were you trying. ML and unders?
+ the points on dog with under.Quote: GWAEwhat parlay were you trying. ML and unders?
Not scratching my head anymore. Indy looks legit.Quote: unJonI can’t get action down on parlaying line and total on Pats and Cowboy large lines. Oh well.
I’ve got a flyer on Detroit +190, under 42 in the Broncos/Packers game and Falcons +1.5. Wish I had jumped in on Falcons earlier, but I’m scratching my head at Falcons being a dog here at all.
On the night game, big on Chiefs 1q and Packers team total over.
Then lot of small action, Chiefs +6, first score a TD, Kelce under, Hill and Jones over, over 4 sacks, and yes on a defense / special team TD.
Baseball: Nationals +1.5, Nationals to score first, and yes on a score in first inning
Quote: TomGDid well on early NFL games today. Disaster on Saturday college, needed Browns to cover late for a winning week, but fell short
On the night game, big on Chiefs 1q and Packers team total over.
Then lot of small action, Chiefs +6, first score a TD, Kelce under, Hill and Jones over, over 4 sacks, and yes on a defense / special team TD.
Baseball: Nationals +1.5, Nationals to score first, and yes on a score in first inning
I’ve got over 8 in baseball and over 47.5 in the football game. I sort of like the Chiefs to cover but told myself I’d lay off unless it kisses +6.
On paper you would think Nets are poised to sweep. But Vegas sets the line thinking that Bucks in the hole will pull out the win at home. As far as I can tell from internet data (of uncertain veracity) is that 60% of the money is coming in on the Nets but the line is not moving. In fact some books went to +4.
Always interesting when Vegas seems content to hold a position on a side.
I’m scratching my head. I plopped a bet down on Nets at +3.5 and +140 money line.
Let’s see what happens.
in hockey really seems to be more true than other sports that in a certain game period, one team has all the momentum, just a really clear thing, then the next period it reverses . And in a certain game, you think one team just has the other team dominated, then the next game it reverses. Seems more so than other sports and makes the betting hard.
You may find that you think some of those numbers are +EV.
Enjoy rooting for or against me today. Happy New Year!
Yes I cut off the amount I bet on purpose. Pays 6:1 obviously.
.
a short gambling story:
.
.
"Bettor bets with a bookie and loses all NFL season long
after that he hardly cashes a bet on NBA basketball
it's not much better on college hoops
finally, MLB rolls around and he gets killed
the Bookie says to the bettor: "You might want to try hockey"
the bettor responds:
.
𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙙𝙤 𝙄 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙝𝙤𝙘𝙠𝙚𝙮"________________________________(-:\
.
Quote: lilredrooster__________
.
a short gambling story:
.
.
"Bettor bets with a bookie and loses all NFL season long
after that he hardly cashes a bet on NBA basketball
it's not much better on college hoops
finally, MLB rolls around and he gets killed
the Bookie says to the bettor: "You might want to try hockey"
the bettor responds:
.
𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙙𝙤 𝙄 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙝𝙤𝙘𝙠𝙚𝙮"________________________________(-:\
.
link to original post
Hockey teasers are a great bet if you can get plus 6 for -200 on two teamers like you used to in the Reno area.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
Quote: SOOPOOAaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post
Rodgers is -450 at most places.
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOAaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post
Rodgers is -450 at most places.
link to original post
Who is the second favorite now?
Quote: DRichQuote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOAaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post
Rodgers is -450 at most places.
link to original post
Who is the second favorite now?
link to original post
If I bet anything it would be a flyer on Burrow. And maybe Kupp on the off chance he breaks 2,000 yards next week.
Quote: SOOPOOAaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post
Tom Brady: 40 TD, 12 INT, 66.9% COMP, 4,990 Yards, 311.9 YPG, 100.5 RATE
Aaron Rodgers: 35 TD, 4 INT, 68.6% COMP, 3,997 Yards, 265.1 YPG, 111.1 RATE
It seems like Rodgers is certainly extremely safe with the ball this year, until...
Brady: 456 Completions, 682 Attempts
Rodgers: 352 Completions, 513 Attempts
I don't know...and I obviously have a Brady bias, but I'd think anyone could admit that it's close.
Quote: unJonQuote: DRichQuote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOAaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post
Rodgers is -450 at most places.
link to original post
Who is the second favorite now?
link to original post
If I bet anything it would be a flyer on Burrow. And maybe Kupp on the off chance he breaks 2,000 yards next week.
link to original post
Burrow vs Prescott odds here and Burrow vs Prescott odds for comeback player of the year seem incompatible.
If Tampa would've been 1 seed, I think it would go Brady.
In my opinion, Green Bay would be worse without Rodgers than Tampa without Brady.
Quote: Mission146Quote: SOOPOOAaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.
Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.
None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.
(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post
Tom Brady: 40 TD, 12 INT, 66.9% COMP, 4,990 Yards, 311.9 YPG, 100.5 RATE
Aaron Rodgers: 35 TD, 4 INT, 68.6% COMP, 3,997 Yards, 265.1 YPG, 111.1 RATE
It seems like Rodgers is certainly extremely safe with the ball this year, until...
Brady: 456 Completions, 682 Attempts
Rodgers: 352 Completions, 513 Attempts
I don't know...and I obviously have a Brady bias, but I'd think anyone could admit that it's close.
link to original post
I’ve watched them both all year. Brady had more clunker games than Rodgers. But…. Thanks for the comparison! The 111 versus 100 rating is a pretty big difference. The interceptions difference also pretty significant. I also believe Rodgers played one less game. But Brady’s season at his age is, well, one for the ages! When Brady hits 5,000 at age 44….. yowza!
Quote: SOOPOO
I’ve watched them both all year. Brady had more clunker games than Rodgers. But…. Thanks for the comparison! The 111 versus 100 rating is a pretty big difference. The interceptions difference also pretty significant. I also believe Rodgers played one less game. But Brady’s season at his age is, well, one for the ages! When Brady hits 5,000 at age 44….. yowza!
link to original post
Not only that, but Brady is also only the second QB of all-time to have back-to-back seasons with 40 (or more) Touchdowns.
My argument in favor of Brady is that he wins in both yards and touchdowns per game. Beyond that, when you look at his completions and attempts per game, on the offensive side of the football, it becomes clear that TB leans on the passing game a lot more than Green Bay does. The Buccaneers have rushed 54 fewer times and for nearly 200 fewer yards (team stats) than have the Green Bay Packers.
That said, it is a substantial difference in QB Rating and, even if I gave Rodgers 12 INT's for the season, his RATE would still be a little bit better than Brady's by virtue of his ridiculous TD's/Attempts percentage (6.8% compared to 5.9% for Brady) and his yards per attempt (7.8 compared to 7.3 for Brady).
Green Bay's defense has also been ever so slightly better than Tampa Bay's this year, but probably not enough that it should really be a factor.
Which of the two guys is most valuable to the team? How much do you isolate this season in deciding that? An argument for Brady is that TB won a Super Bowl the first year that Brady was with the team, so that's a pretty big endorsement and, for the second season in a row, he is having one of the best seasons of his young career.
As a Tom Brady fan, I think it's a coin flip...so you're probably right to go Rodgers.
