Circa NFL Million-dollar handicapping challenge
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26 members have voted
Quote: WizardI went to the D last night to enter, but the form asks for the player card numbers of your three proxies. I didn't know any of them so I took the form home with me. I will need to find some reliable proxies before I actually enter.
I can't imagine they require a proxy? From a practical standpoint, I can understand why you might want one in case you are out of state during a weekly selection window.
Quote: WizardA day later and we're at 1048
<snip>AS OF FRI AUG 30 8:00PM THERE ARE
1,180 ENTRIES
AND A $320,000 OVERLAY. </snip>
Looks like quite a surge in entries and if that rate of entries holds it will be no overlay. Are you still doing this if that’s the case?
Quote: MoosetonLooks like quite a surge in entries and if that rate of entries holds it will be no overlay. Are you still doing this if that’s the case?
That's the question I'm wrestling with. I think my record in six challenges speaks for itself. However, if I won a significant amount it, I would have to pay taxes on it. Considering that factor, it's definitely negative EV. I'll reevaluate after the labor day weekend.
what if there are multiple other people using the same type of stale line system you use? I would have to assume there are better than average people entering this contest.Quote: WizardThat's the question I'm wrestling with. I think my record in six challenges speaks for itself. However, if I won a significant amount it, I would have to pay taxes on it. Considering that factor, it's definitely negative EV. I'll reevaluate after the labor day weekend.
Quote: AxelWolfwhat if there are multiple other people using the same type of stale line system you use? I would have to assume there are better than average people entering this contest.
That's another good point. Remember how Nathan almost won the Super Bowl prop challenge? I could see the same thing happening here.
OK, whatever you think. You have to do the hard part of picking the games and submitting them. If you are still in, I'm still in. If you are out, then of course I am out as well.
Quote: JohnnyQWiz:
OK, whatever you think. You have to do the hard part of picking the games and submitting them. If you are still in, I'm still in. If you are out, then of course I am out as well.
1,180 entries so far.
To be honest, I'm leaning against it at this point.
Quote: Wizard1,180 entries so far.
To be honest, I'm leaning against it at this point.
Well, if you consider the intangibles, imo it's still a winning play. If you lead a group of the forum with a very high-interest weekly contest entry, you get a dedicated 4 month period of activity here for a fun game. Since Derek has said any overage will go 100% to the prize pool, it doesn't seem like a bad bet even if it's not +ev. JMHO.
Quote: Wizard1,180 entries so far.
To be honest, I'm leaning against it at this point.
As of last night, leading into a holiday weekend. I do think it merits consideration that some will drop out or miss picks and eat an 0-5 week, thereby reducing the number. On the other hand, there are almost also going to certainly be smart pickers playing, as well.
Hard to say what the final EV will be. Probably a bunch of other people kind of doing wait and see, too.
Quote: Mission146As of last night, leading into a holiday weekend. I do think it merits consideration that some will drop out or miss picks and eat an 0-5 week, thereby reducing the number. On the other hand, there are almost also going to certainly be smart pickers playing, as well.
Hard to say what the final EV will be. Probably a bunch of other people kind of doing wait and see, too.
One reason why they added the monthly prizes is to keep everyone involved and interested throughout.
There’s a $10,000 prize for each four week period. So no matter how badly you’ve done over let’s say the first 12 weeks , you can win 10k by having the best record in weeks 12-16
Quote: michael99000One reason why they added the monthly prizes is to keep everyone involved and interested throughout.
There’s a $10,000 prize for each four week period. So no matter how badly you’ve done over let’s say the first 12 weeks , you can win 10k by having the best record in weeks 12-16
Thanks for the clarification!
In any event, an 0-5 week would still be an unmitigated disaster when it comes to having any hope of winning the main prize. Shooting from the hip, I’d say the winner is probably going to pick something like 70-75% winners. The more entrants there are, the higher the expected percentage goes.
Quote: beachbumbabsWell, if you consider the intangibles, imo it's still a winning play. If you lead a group of the forum with a very high-interest weekly contest entry, you get a dedicated 4 month period of activity here for a fun game. Since Derek has said any overage will go 100% to the prize pool, it doesn't seem like a bad bet even if it's not +ev. JMHO.
You could reinstate Nathan and get the same activity with no risk.
Quote: SOOPOOBumping this thread. Mike, I hope you do this. Counting taxes, it will probably be a small negative EV play. But less so than other things you have done for forum community involvement like the cooperation game.
I agree. I think the comroderary and discussion on the site would far outweigh and slight -ev play.
I would assume if we would win the mil Mike would have the taxes withheld and we would split 700k or does he collect the mil and distribute it with that form to split jackpots. Can you imagine the party we would throw as 10 or 30 of us gathered to split up 1 mil.
Quote: billryanYou could reinstate Nathan and get the same activity with no risk.
Most cancer patients request the cancer back after the doctor has told them they are completely cancer free...
Quote: SOOPOOBumping this thread. Mike, I hope you do this. Counting taxes, it will probably be a small negative EV play. But less so than other things you have done for forum community involvement like the cooperation game.
Thanks Scott!
As an update, there are 1,369 entries so far. I have a high degree of confidence it will fill up by the deadline on Thursday.
I am already looking at two weekends out of town during football season and nobody has agreed to be a proxy who has a D/Golden Gate player card. Even if I did find one, I'd have to shell out money for their trouble putting in my picks. Granted, there is some app they have, but I may be out of state at least one weekend and it verifies any activity is coming from Nevada.
Let me reach out to another local who may be interested in being being a proxy for each other.
Quote: WizardThanks Scott!
As an update, there are 1,369 entries so far. I have a high degree of confidence it will fill up by the deadline on Thursday.
I am already looking at two weekends out of town during football season and nobody has agreed to be a proxy who has a D/Golden Gate player card. Even if I did find one, I'd have to shell out money for their trouble putting in my picks. Granted, there is some app they have, but I may be out of state at least one weekend and it verifies any activity is coming from Nevada.
Let me reach out to another local who may be interested in being being a proxy for each other.
Yes, picks can be submitted on their Circa sports app, but as you noted, you have to be in the state. I'd invest and be happy to proxy, but don't live in Nevada, so that won't work.
Quote: WizardHowever, I'm still inclined against it, mainly for the reasons of taxation of winnings and the fuss of entering my picks every week.
I have skipped all of the contests in Las Vegas where I had to show up every week to make my picks. I thought Circa was going to allow picks for contests on their app.
I prefer to skip anything where I'm locked into having to do once a week, even if I don't have to go anywhere to do it.Quote: DRichI have skipped all of the contests in Las Vegas where I had to show up every week to make my picks. I thought Circa was going to allow picks for contests on their app.
Quote: DRichI have skipped all of the contests in Las Vegas where I had to show up every week to make my picks. I thought Circa was going to allow picks for contests on their app.
They do. It still presents a problem for those weeks where I'll be out of state.
Quote: WizardThey do. It still presents a problem for those weeks where I'll be out of state.
If it can be done on the app, and it's the only thing you're doing wirh Circa, and the IP has to be instate, isn't there someone in LV who could sign on and do the picks for you those 2 weekends?
Several if's there, but IF those are correct, it seems like fun.
Easy for me to say, I'm sure, from 2500 miles away.
Quote: beachbumbabsIf it can be done on the app, and it's the only thing you're doing wirh Circa, and the IP has to be instate, isn't there someone in LV who could sign on and do the picks for you those 2 weekends?
I could, but after tax considerations, this play is very negative EV. Not worth begging people to help put in picks for.
Quote: WizardI could, but after tax considerations, this play is very negative EV. Not worth begging people to help put in picks for.
Yeah, the 2019 WoV NFL Picks Game has a bigger overlay. LOL
Basically, he got a bunch of advertising and a bunch of word-of-mouth (including this thread), essentially for an interest-free loan of over 1.5 million dollars.
Personally, I'd be much more impressed if the contest had the same rules, but he had to pony up a bonus of $25-$100, per entrant, until that bonus hits a certain cap vis-a-vis number of entrants. That way, the positive equity as an amount is capped (could even be $100,000), but there would remain positive equity in the contest that would decrease on a percentage and by-person basis as more people entered.
I think he meant well, and it's always possible there wouldn't have been at least 1,500 players, just don't like the result. But, you never know, maybe he'll decide to kick in some extra to the main prize pool and/or the winner after everyone who is going to sign up has.
Quote: Mission1461,716 entries and I'm not impressed with this at all, unless something changes.
Basically, he got a bunch of advertising and a bunch of word-of-mouth (including this thread), essentially for an interest-free loan of over 1.5 million dollars.
Personally, I'd be much more impressed if the contest had the same rules, but he had to pony up a bonus of $25-$100, per entrant, until that bonus hits a certain cap vis-a-vis number of entrants. That way, the positive equity as an amount is capped (could even be $100,000), but there would remain positive equity in the contest that would decrease on a percentage and by-person basis as more people entered.
I think he meant well, and it's always possible there wouldn't have been at least 1,500 players, just don't like the result. But, you never know, maybe he'll decide to kick in some extra to the main prize pool and/or the winner after everyone who is going to sign up has.
He has already contributed alot. He organized and paid to advertise a no vig contest. He knows his business. Never was going to be an overlay. I don't like how it was advertised on TV. It leads a person to believe there is a million dollar overlay in the first few seconds.
Quote: Mission146\
I think he meant well, and it's always possible there wouldn't have been at least 1,500 players, just don't like the result. But, you never know, maybe he'll decide to kick in some extra to the main prize pool and/or the winner after everyone who is going to sign up has.
I say just enter and win the contest. At that point I don't think you would continue to worry about the lack of overlay.
Quote: MaxPenHe has already contributed alot. He organized and paid to advertise a no vig contest. He knows his business. Never was going to be an overlay. I don't like how it was advertised on TV. It leads a person to believe there is a million dollar overlay in the first few seconds.
I agree he knows his business! He’s got well over a thousand people with at least $1,000 many of whom will now be visiting one of his casinos every week, and an interest free loan of well over 1.5M, all for the cost of advertising.
I agree with you about the commercial, you mentioned that earlier, also. Hard to say if anyone signed up believing there might be some sort of guaranteed overlay, but that’s on them for not reading it, if so. The main purpose of a commercial, of course, is to imply the opposite of what the little words on the bottom of the screen say. True of anything.
Anyway, I just thought it would be good for him to create a little bit of an overlay, especially given that implication.
Quote: DRichI say just enter and win the contest. At that point I don't think you would continue to worry about the lack of overlay.
That would be an excellent plan, the minor problem being that I would definitely lose. There have to be some really skilled people participating, so I put my probability of winning any prize at precisely 0.00000000000000000000000000001%.
Quote: Mission146That would be an excellent plan, the minor problem being that I would definitely lose. There have to be some really skilled people participating, so I put my probability of winning any prize at precisely 0.00000000000000000000000000001%.
That's why I like the idea of going in with a bunch of people. I would rather spend 100 with almost no chance of winning 100k instead if 1000 with almost no chance at a million.
I liked it when I heard +EV/ Mike doing all the work. # howmuchcanIgetdownQuote: GWAEThat's why I like the idea of going in with a bunch of people. I would rather spend 100 with almost no chance of winning 100k instead if 1000 with almost no chance at a million.
Quote: AxelWolfI liked it when I heard +EV/ Mike doing all the work. # howmuchcanIgetdown
that is funny.
So since this appears to be dead since the games start in 2 hours I figured I would hijack this a little. Local in PA has a contest that is similar. It is $150 to enter with 150k in prizes and I believe no fees coming out. I was going to sign up but then didnt. A day later they had a BOGO free entry for 1 day but I missed it. I ended up not doing it because they allow people to enter up to 25 times. Just curious, does anyone think there is a huge disadvantage in a contest like this where you are only going to have 1 entry but others may have 10-25? That was my deciding factor to not enter. I would think if I have 1 and others even have 3 or 4 I would be at a huge disadvantage.
ETA: nevermind, I decided to sign up. 3300 people signed up, 125k to first and they are paying top 500 spots. 500k in total prizes. Cost myself a free entry by missing the bogo.
Quote: GWAEthat is funny.
So since this appears to be dead since the games start in 2 hours I figured I would hijack this a little. Local in PA has a contest that is similar. It is $150 to enter with 150k in prizes and I believe no fees coming out. I was going to sign up but then didnt. A day later they had a BOGO free entry for 1 day but I missed it. I ended up not doing it because they allow people to enter up to 25 times. Just curious, does anyone think there is a huge disadvantage in a contest like this where you are only going to have 1 entry but others may have 10-25? That was my deciding factor to not enter. I would think if I have 1 and others even have 3 or 4 I would be at a huge disadvantage.
If you assume that all of the people playing are equally good, and you also assume that all the people playing will get their Picks in for every entry, every week, then all entries have the same EV. I believe the only exception would be if one person had enough entries such as to cover all possible combinations of five games that do not have the possibility of a push. I believe that would require something like 3.5 million entries, because there are ten possibilities for each set of picks, so (10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1)= 3,628,800.
Quote: Mission146If you assume that all of the people playing are equally good, and you also assume that all the people playing will get their Picks in for every entry, every week, then all entries have the same EV. I believe the only exception would be if one person had enough entries such as to cover all possible combinations of five games that do not have the possibility of a push. I believe that would require something like 3.5 million entries, because there are ten possibilities for each set of picks, so (10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1)= 3,628,800.
whelp I guess I should have read all of the rules. It is not picking against the spread. It is just straight up.
Quote: GWAEwhelp I guess I should have read all of the rules. It is not picking against the spread. It is just straight up.
Same thing, in terms of combinations, except there are theoretically many more (but the probabilities don't change much) due to ties.
Most casino run contests like this are just straight up Pick Ems.
Quote: GWAEwhelp I guess I should have read all of the rules. It is not picking against the spread. It is just straight up.
If picking without the spread there is a LOT of strategy involved, and knowing the exact rules is quite important.
Do you have to pick every game, or just a predetermined number of games?
Is the big winner the highest percentage winner at the end of the season? What other prizes are available?
Is it you perception that any win would be taxable but any loss not deductible?
Will you know exact standings after each week?
Depending on how many people are paid, picking just the biggest favorites might make sense.
If there are 50 others doing the same thing it wouldn't......
So let's construct a simplified conceptual model. My model is intended for a contest that is ATS, against the spread.
On each round the contestant is selecting 5 of 16 games from which to pick.
Both the contestant and that line-makers are skilled at analysis, but the contestant sometimes has insights about a game that give him a slight advantage -or uses line movements on stale lines to gain an advantage.
- On each round the contestant sees 5 games that he expects to be able to pick with an average success rate of 57%, 3 games that he can pick with an average success rate of 52% and 8 games on which he perfectly agrees with the line and can pick at a rate of 50%.
On round 1 the contestant picks some variation of this strategy:
- two or more entries with all five games that he feels strongly about (57%)
- many combinations in which he includes one, two or three of the games that he feels less certain about (52%)
- several combinations that include one or more games that he feels are a toss-up, because sh#t happens in the NFL.
The results of Round one may include one or more entries that are 5-0, or at least 4-1, or maybe only 3-2.
ON round 2, the contestant continues to mix up his 25 entries however, however, he uses the combination of picks that he feels most confident in on those entries that had the best outcome in round 1, whatever they happened to be
Each round, the contestant continues to correlate his hishest-confidence picks with whatever entries have had the best outcomes to date.
At the end of the contest, I maintain that a contestant with 25 entries using such a strategy will usuually have a "best entry" with a better outcome than the best entry from 25 different contestants with similar skill levels, because:
- there really are games that a skilled contestant can pick with a greater than 50% success rate, and
- in general, the picks of 25 different skilled contestants will be somewhat correlated each round picking the same games in which the line is inefficient because it is stale, or because of some factor (weather, injuries, matchups, team motivation) that the linemakers have not weighed correctly.) We see these kind of correlations in the WOV NFL Picks Contest.
- and because, no matter how sharp the insights of the skilled contestants, on most rounds the picks that go 5-0 will not be the 5 that have a 57% chance of being correct, i.e., on some rounds "Nathan Wins."
Comments? Agree? Disagree?
nevertheless I am seeing this thread for the first time, amazing
At $1,000 per entry, there is an overlay with less than 2,000 entrants. As of today, August 25, there are 553 entrants only. Assuming no more entrants, each entry would be worth $3,616. However, I predict it will fill up at the last minute.
Last year, with a $1,500,000 prize pool, there was an overlay at less than 1,500 entrants, but according to the last time I checked, they got to 1,552.
Nevertheless, it is worth keeping an eye on. I may enter myself.
Official Announcement.
I Westgate casino modified their contest this year with a nice bonus for tourists. With the $1500 entry you get free rooms for the weekend each week of the season. That alone will hopefully bring in a lot of tourists. Especially those in driving distance from California and Arizona.
Quote: gordonm888Mathematically and practically, I think there is a difference between 25 entries by a a single contestant and one entry by 25 contestants.
So let's construct a simplified conceptual model. My model is intended for a contest that is ATS, against the spread.
On each round the contestant is selecting 5 of 16 games from which to pick.
Both the contestant and that line-makers are skilled at analysis, but the contestant sometimes has insights about a game that give him a slight advantage -or uses line movements on stale lines to gain an advantage.
- On each round the contestant sees 5 games that he expects to be able to pick with an average success rate of 57%, 3 games that he can pick with an average success rate of 52% and 8 games on which he perfectly agrees with the line and can pick at a rate of 50%.
On round 1 the contestant picks some variation of this strategy:
- two or more entries with all five games that he feels strongly about (57%)
- many combinations in which he includes one, two or three of the games that he feels less certain about (52%)
- several combinations that include one or more games that he feels are a toss-up, because sh#t happens in the NFL.
The results of Round one may include one or more entries that are 5-0, or at least 4-1, or maybe only 3-2.
ON round 2, the contestant continues to mix up his 25 entries however, however, he uses the combination of picks that he feels most confident in on those entries that had the best outcome in round 1, whatever they happened to be
Each round, the contestant continues to correlate his hishest-confidence picks with whatever entries have had the best outcomes to date.
At the end of the contest, I maintain that a contestant with 25 entries using such a strategy will usuually have a "best entry" with a better outcome than the best entry from 25 different contestants with similar skill levels, because:
- there really are games that a skilled contestant can pick with a greater than 50% success rate, and
- in general, the picks of 25 different skilled contestants will be somewhat correlated each round picking the same games in which the line is inefficient because it is stale, or because of some factor (weather, injuries, matchups, team motivation) that the linemakers have not weighed correctly.) We see these kind of correlations in the WOV NFL Picks Contest.
- and because, no matter how sharp the insights of the skilled contestants, on most rounds the picks that go 5-0 will not be the 5 that have a 57% chance of being correct, i.e., on some rounds "Nathan Wins."
Comments? Agree? Disagree?
You're correct, without a doubt. I have to go jog in few minutes, but just so people get a bit of a handle on some of this, and off the top of my head:
1) The no spread contests, like the old Barbary Coast/Boyd contest or the Station Casinos contests, used to be rife with gigantic cartels. One person would recruit dozens or hundreds of others and enter coordinated entries. I used to coordinate a modest group with 40 to 80 entries each year for quite a few years. We made money all but a couple of years, as they all had season-ending prizes those days. But what we were doing was absolutely dwarfed by the real cartels. One crew put in roughly 1,100 entries each week out of the 30,000 or so in one contest.
2) The big money spread contests have coordinated entries. Even the highest-profile people who displayed great skill and contest expertise (I think most know who I mean) also utilized multiple entries, even when such coordination was labeled illegal.
3) Since I'm a college specialist, there really aren't any contests for me in LV. Bally's did sponsor a college contest a few years back. Entries were fairly cheap -- I think just $200 or $300 a pop. Limit of three, I think. Prize money wasn't great, but they returned it all. I was in it two years, I think. Finished tied for second or third one of the years. That's an interesting story, as lack of hubris won me the money (hard to believe, eh?).
Anyway, I'm really glad Circa is doing this. Eventually, they'll get around to a college version, one would think.
