Circa NFL Million-dollar handicapping challenge
Poll
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| | 3 votes (11.53%) | ||
| | 3 votes (11.53%) | ||
| | 2 votes (7.69%) | ||
| | 6 votes (23.07%) | ||
| | 4 votes (15.38%) | ||
| | 3 votes (11.53%) | ||
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26 members have voted
August 27th, 2019 at 12:36:38 PM
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As a reminder, Derek Stevens, owner of the Golden Gate and D, is building what looks to be a very nice property, to be known as the Circa, in the location of the old Las Vegas Club. It will have its own branded sports book, which already can be found at the Golden Gate and D (I'm meaning to check it out in person).
Evidently in an interest to draw attention to it, Stevens is having an NFL handicapping challenge. Here are the most important rules:
1. $1,000 entry fee.
2. $1,500,000 minimum in prize money. Entry fees above 1.5 million will be added to the prize pool.
3. Pick 5 games a week against the spread.
4. $1,000,000 to the entrant with the best record, with the rest of the money going to lower places and in-progress wins.
Here is the important thing. As of the time of this writing, August 27, there are only 982 entries. That is a $518,000 overlay. Seems like a great value, but I'm sure there will be a surge of entrants at the last minute, if it's still positive EV. Then again, you never know.
Basic announcement
Full rules (pdf)
The question for the survey is will you enter? I am in talks of forming a betting pool. Anyone care to join?
Evidently in an interest to draw attention to it, Stevens is having an NFL handicapping challenge. Here are the most important rules:
1. $1,000 entry fee.
2. $1,500,000 minimum in prize money. Entry fees above 1.5 million will be added to the prize pool.
3. Pick 5 games a week against the spread.
4. $1,000,000 to the entrant with the best record, with the rest of the money going to lower places and in-progress wins.
Here is the important thing. As of the time of this writing, August 27, there are only 982 entries. That is a $518,000 overlay. Seems like a great value, but I'm sure there will be a surge of entrants at the last minute, if it's still positive EV. Then again, you never know.
Basic announcement
Full rules (pdf)
The question for the survey is will you enter? I am in talks of forming a betting pool. Anyone care to join?
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 27th, 2019 at 2:10:46 PM
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I would be interested in the betting pool
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 27th, 2019 at 2:39:05 PM
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Mike, I'd like to be in for the $50 you owe me! I expect that they will easily get to the 1500 number. Gotta be enough people who think they are better than the rest of us at picking games. And since they let you pay with credit card you are + EV around 2% right there.
August 27th, 2019 at 4:48:35 PM
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Yes, I would like to be in your "betting pool" for a reasonable share.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
August 27th, 2019 at 4:56:10 PM
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I'm in the pool like a Baby Ruth. $100 ok?
August 27th, 2019 at 4:57:25 PM
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I would like to be in the pool. More than one entry if there are enough of us?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 27th, 2019 at 5:36:59 PM
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I'm game if you'll have me as a silent partner.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 27th, 2019 at 6:16:27 PM
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I'm interested in the WizPool.
Last edited by: IndyJeffrey on Aug 27, 2019
August 27th, 2019 at 6:20:40 PM
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Thanks for the interest in a pool. As mentioned in the original post, at 1,500 or more entries, this contest will be break even. Any less, and it will be positive EV.
Two questions for those interested:
1. Would you still invest if the contest there were a surge of last-minute entrants, resulting in a low player advantage?
2. How much are you interested in investing? Let's remember this is $1,000 per entry, so I'd rather not fuss with $20 investments.
Two questions for those interested:
1. Would you still invest if the contest there were a surge of last-minute entrants, resulting in a low player advantage?
2. How much are you interested in investing? Let's remember this is $1,000 per entry, so I'd rather not fuss with $20 investments.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 27th, 2019 at 6:35:59 PM
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1. Yes, still invest even with a late surge of entries.
2. I'm interested for $100.
2. I'm interested for $100.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
August 27th, 2019 at 6:39:04 PM
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Yes no matter how many people in.
For either 100 or 200.
Would it be a pick by majority vote or would you just handle the picks
For either 100 or 200.
Would it be a pick by majority vote or would you just handle the picks
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 27th, 2019 at 6:54:51 PM
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1. yes
2. $50 - $100
2. $50 - $100
August 27th, 2019 at 6:55:46 PM
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I would be in for 100 min. Would step up or back from that depending on what makes the entry fee come out right.
But good question on who makes the picks. Can it be done online, or does someone have to go to Circa in person each week? Do we want to have one person drive and the rest ride, have a weekly spread poll to pick as a group, rotate the picks among pool members?
But good question on who makes the picks. Can it be done online, or does someone have to go to Circa in person each week? Do we want to have one person drive and the rest ride, have a weekly spread poll to pick as a group, rotate the picks among pool members?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 27th, 2019 at 8:34:43 PM
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I’m in no matter how much you set for entries. $100 sounds like the consensus amount, which is fine with me and I’d chip in more also if that’s where it ends up. This will be fun!
Last edited by: unJon on Aug 28, 2019
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:45:00 AM
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I'm in for $50. If mike decides $100 minimum I'd be in for that as well. I'd prefer if we just ride Mike's coattails and let him make all the picks. Too messy for a 'vote' each week.
August 28th, 2019 at 5:57:23 AM
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1019 entries so far.
The deadline to enter, by the way is 3:00, Sep 7.
Yes, the way this will work is investors will piggyback on whatever I do. We can discuss the picks here, but the final decision will be mine. I will employ the same strategy I've used with the challenges here.
The deadline to enter, by the way is 3:00, Sep 7.
Quote: SOOPOOI'm in for $50. If mike decides $100 minimum I'd be in for that as well. I'd prefer if we just ride Mike's coattails and let him make all the picks. Too messy for a 'vote' each week.
Yes, the way this will work is investors will piggyback on whatever I do. We can discuss the picks here, but the final decision will be mine. I will employ the same strategy I've used with the challenges here.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 28th, 2019 at 6:03:22 AM
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Quote: Wizard1019 entries so far.
The deadline to enter, by the way is 3:00, Sep 7.
Yes, the way this will work is investors will piggyback on whatever I do. We can discuss the picks here, but the final decision will be mine. I will employ the same strategy I've used with the challenges here.
I think we would all be in for that. It would be some interesting discussion weekly as well.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 28th, 2019 at 6:20:42 AM
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Quote: Wizard1019 entries so far.
The deadline to enter, by the way is 3:00, Sep 7.
Yes, the way this will work is investors will piggyback on whatever I do. We can discuss the picks here, but the final decision will be mine. I will employ the same strategy I've used with the challenges here.
I would gladly join in for $50/$100, whichever the case may be.
But it already appears that one entry of $1500 has been met with those that have spoken up, and if so, will there be another entry formed, or are you going to keep it limited to just one entry?
There's no way out of here
When you come in
You're in for good
There was no promise made
The part you played
The chance...........you took
August 28th, 2019 at 8:38:04 AM
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At this point, I'm thinking of buying three entries, so there should be plenty of room for piggy-backers.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 28th, 2019 at 8:50:41 AM
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I would be in for a c-note, thanks. This sounds like a lot of fun, a lot of fun.
I 'm gonna go get the papers, get the papers.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:14:18 AM
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Quote: WizardAt this point, I'm thinking of buying three entries, so there should be plenty of room for piggy-backers.
Will your picks be the same across all three entries?
There's no way out of here
When you come in
You're in for good
There was no promise made
The part you played
The chance...........you took
August 28th, 2019 at 9:50:23 AM
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For $100, am I getting 1/15th of one pool or 1/45th of three pools combined?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:13:25 AM
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That would be like buying 3 mega millions tickets with all the same numbers! I expect Mike to be able to find a way to not do that.Quote: scolistWill your picks be the same across all three entries?
August 28th, 2019 at 10:55:57 AM
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Count me in for $100
They talk about this contest on VSIN radio often. I believe Circa sportsbook is already fully up and running.
And there is a prize at the end of each 4 weeks for whichever entry had the best record over those prior 4 weeks. It’s $10,000 and it gets spilt amongst all ties. That’s if the contest the wizard is referring to is the same one Derek Stevens talks about on the radio
They talk about this contest on VSIN radio often. I believe Circa sportsbook is already fully up and running.
And there is a prize at the end of each 4 weeks for whichever entry had the best record over those prior 4 weeks. It’s $10,000 and it gets spilt amongst all ties. That’s if the contest the wizard is referring to is the same one Derek Stevens talks about on the radio
August 28th, 2019 at 11:01:50 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOThat would be like buying 3 mega millions tickets with all the same numbers! I expect Mike to be able to find a way to not do that.
Some times that is a decent strategy in the early weeks of a contest if you really like those five games. If you have three entries all doing well going into the second half of the season you can start making different bets hoping to get one ticket to the top.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:24:57 AM
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Quote: scolistWill your picks be the same across all three entries?
No. There would probably be some overlap. I'm thinking about three strong picks on each entry and mix it up on the other two.
I'm going to Arizona this weekend, but plan to buy three entries shortly after, maybe Monday night, if the number of entries is still under 1400 or so. Piggybackers will have an equal square on all of them.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 28th, 2019 at 1:20:40 PM
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Quote: WizardNo. There would probably be some overlap. I'm thinking about three strong picks on each entry and mix it up on the other two.
I'm going to Arizona this weekend, but plan to buy three entries shortly after, maybe Monday night, if the number of entries is still under 1400 or so. Piggybackers will have an equal square on all of them.
I'm considering this option since Mission's picks game seems oddly quiet. However, can you please clarify how the shares work? Are there 3,000 shares @$1 each available with a minimum buy of x shares?, or could there be more than 3,000 shares sold? How will any winnings be divided? I would be comfortable with you taking half for the trouble and the knowledgeable picks, with the other half divided equally among the 3,000 shares. But is this how it will work?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 28th, 2019 at 2:31:29 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI'm considering this option since Mission's picks game seems oddly quiet. However, can you please clarify how the shares work? Are there 3,000 shares @$1 each available with a minimum buy of x shares?, or could there be more than 3,000 shares sold? How will any winnings be divided? I would be comfortable with you taking half for the trouble and the knowledgeable picks, with the other half divided equally among the 3,000 shares. But is this how it will work?
You asked a good question, Ayecarumba, but then you proceeded to answer it with a hypothetical scenario that would not be acceptable to me - and that would be outside the normal "set of terms" for these kinds of investments.
Wizard taking half the equity of the tickets as his "fee" and having the other half of any winnings split according to the amount that each of us put up (including Wizard's share for his own cash investment) - that would be too much for me to participate. I consider myself to be an investor in a (very) long shot investment; the investors are helping Wizard by allowing him to play three different tickets without putting up his own money for the total amount (into a wager that, after all, has a very high probability of being a total loss.)
Let's allow Wizard to answer the question without guessing what his response will be.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Aug 28, 2019
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:48:07 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI'm considering this option since Mission's picks game seems oddly quiet. However, can you please clarify how the shares work? Are there 3,000 shares @$1 each available with a minimum buy of x shares?, or could there be more than 3,000 shares sold? How will any winnings be divided? I would be comfortable with you taking half for the trouble and the knowledgeable picks, with the other half divided equally among the 3,000 shares. But is this how it will work?
I am offering a no-fee piggy-backing. What you win will be (gross winnings)*(your investment)/(total investment). I suppose I would accept tips for a job well done. I offer this only to long-time members in good standing.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 28th, 2019 at 3:18:07 PM
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Quote: billryanFor $100, am I getting 1/15th of one pool or 1/45th of three pools combined?
1/30th of winnings from 3 entries (entries are $1,000 each)
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:22:20 PM
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One handicapper has said that Miami has the worst roster he can ever remember seeing, and there is some talk that Miami is tanking to get Tua Tugavoiloa in the 2019 draft.
Of course, everyone will hear this same rumor and the line will probably reflect that.
Of course, everyone will hear this same rumor and the line will probably reflect that.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:36:34 PM
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Quote: gordonm888One handicapper has said that Miami has the worst roster he can ever remember seeing, and there is some talk that Miami is tanking to get Tua Tugavoiloa in the 2019 draft.
If anything, I bet against the advice with rumors like this.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 28th, 2019 at 4:36:17 PM
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If its +EV ill take as much action as I can get. Whats left?Quote: WizardIf anything, I bet against the advice with rumors like this.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 28th, 2019 at 5:11:46 PM
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I like that hat. Kinda want to get one of those
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 28th, 2019 at 6:01:28 PM
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I'd like a piece of the action for $100, please!
I've been following the Circa progress on Twitter.
I stayed Downtown in July, It's going up FAST.
I've been following the Circa progress on Twitter.
I stayed Downtown in July, It's going up FAST.
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
August 28th, 2019 at 6:24:10 PM
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Actually, as described, the total amount of money invested by piggybackers may exceed $3k, which could dilute each $100 share below 1/30th.Quote: gordonm8881/30th of winnings from 3 entries (entries are $1,000 each)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 28th, 2019 at 6:40:52 PM
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I assume it is going to be completely fair equity. If there is too much interest, an extra entry should be purchased OR some people shut-out of participation. At least that makes sense to me. I defer to the WIZ.Quote: AyecarumbaActually, as described, the total amount of money invested by piggybackers may exceed $3k, which could dilute each $100 share below 1/30th.
Anyhows, if this is a fair opportunity to participate and have fun, then I would like to be in for $ 50.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
August 28th, 2019 at 6:46:43 PM
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We can just buy more entries. Sounds like a lot of 1040'S involved.Quote: AyecarumbaActually, as described, the total amount of money invested by piggybackers may exceed $3k, which could dilute each $100 share below 1/30th.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 28th, 2019 at 7:10:47 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfWe can just buy more entries. Sounds like a lot of 1040'S involved.
Naw, there's an IRS form for that. Just takes 1 page when you cash the winner.
5340? Something like that.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:52:51 PM
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I actually meant to say 5754 instead of 1040.Quote: beachbumbabsNaw, there's an IRS form for that. Just takes 1 page when you cash the winner.
5340? Something like that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 29th, 2019 at 5:24:20 AM
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Count me in for $100-$200
August 29th, 2019 at 7:40:16 AM
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Quote: Wizard1019 entries so far.
A day later and we're at 1048
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 29th, 2019 at 9:19:56 AM
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I'm in for $50.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
August 29th, 2019 at 11:44:48 AM
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Quote: WizardA day later and we're at 1048
At how many entries do the odds turn sour enough for you to opt out Wizard?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 29th, 2019 at 1:00:51 PM
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Back in June when I was in Vegas for the WSOP, I was at The D after busting a tournament at the Golden Nugget Grand Series and spoke with both Derek Stevens and his Race & Sportsbook Director, Matt Metcalf. As I understood it, they want to provide some positive publicity to their sports book (and new mobile betting app) by competing with the Westgate Super Contest. They also stated there there is a good chance that there will be an overlay on this contest.
They are paying back a guaranteed $1.5M but even any entries exceeding the guarantee will still be paid back at 100% (aka vig free). Additionally the lines are static, meaning there will be opportunity for arbitrage, taking advantage of line movements between the time they are posted until the selection window closes each week. This has been the method Wiz has used in Mission's contests over the past several years with demonstrated success.
The link to the Circa Sports contest is below.
Contest Rules
They are paying back a guaranteed $1.5M but even any entries exceeding the guarantee will still be paid back at 100% (aka vig free). Additionally the lines are static, meaning there will be opportunity for arbitrage, taking advantage of line movements between the time they are posted until the selection window closes each week. This has been the method Wiz has used in Mission's contests over the past several years with demonstrated success.
The link to the Circa Sports contest is below.
Contest Rules
August 30th, 2019 at 4:22:26 AM
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In for betting pool for $100 if still available
What is life if not a gamble?
August 30th, 2019 at 6:31:04 AM
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I went to the D last night to enter, but the form asks for the player card numbers of your three proxies. I didn't know any of them so I took the form home with me. I will need to find some reliable proxies before I actually enter.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
August 30th, 2019 at 6:45:15 AM
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Quote: WizardI went to the D last night to enter, but the form asks for the player card numbers of your three proxies. I didn't know any of them so I took the form home with me. I will need to find some reliable proxies before I actually enter.
If you decide to use one of the "professional proxies", I would be interested in what they charge for their service.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 30th, 2019 at 7:04:47 AM
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$100 is a little rich for my blood on a long-shot, even a +EV one. I will say that one thing that should be considered vis-a-vis the number of entrants is that the actual number of entrants will almost certainly be effectively less. Some people will have a bad week or two and give up, some will be prevented one way or another from making their picks, etc...
If you guys win, I'll come to the celebration! You'll be able to afford to buy me a Dr. Pepper, for sure!
ADDED: The rules of that game look really familiar!
If you guys win, I'll come to the celebration! You'll be able to afford to buy me a Dr. Pepper, for sure!
ADDED: The rules of that game look really familiar!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 30th, 2019 at 7:48:03 AM
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Quote: WizardI went to the D last night to enter, but the form asks for the player card numbers of your three proxies. I didn't know any of them so I took the form home with me. I will need to find some reliable proxies before I actually enter.
Why do you need proxies? I assumed you would be doing the betting.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
