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DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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August 25th, 2019 at 3:24:27 PM permalink
I thoroughly enjoyed our first week of college football.

I woke up early and turned "College Gameday" on at 6am. Watched that for three hours. I had an hour or two to do my chores and stimulate the wife. I then watched every play of "Youngstown St vs Samford", "Miami vs Florida", & "Arizona vs Hawaii". It was was about 11:30[m when Arizona down by 7 points runs the ball to the one yard line as time expires.

What a day of football. We had friends at the house for a BBQ and swimming and I barely spoke to anyone. I am not going to waste my day socializing when there is football to be watched. Fortunately my wife is a trooper and did the entertaining.
Order from chaos
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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August 26th, 2019 at 9:32:28 PM permalink
Because the games are spread out across Thursday, Friday, Sat, Sun, and Monday for Week 1, I've been heavily researching the Thursday night games.

I'm leaning on FIU to beat Tulane at the moment. Right now they are +2 ATS and I know I said ATS is all I would do this year, but the +ML is the better value. FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57. I just can't play the totals this year.

So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.

Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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August 27th, 2019 at 3:00:21 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57.

if that's the case, shouldn't you bet everything you own(And even things you don't) on it?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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August 27th, 2019 at 3:27:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

if that's the case, shouldn't you bet everything you own(And even things you don't) on it?



Im simply stating I have confidence that the totals are set incorrectly for this game. My risk appetite on any wager is measured. I wont ever change that.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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August 27th, 2019 at 3:40:12 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze


So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.

Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?



I think you should stick with ATS picks. ML wagers are a different breed of cat and you will confuse people with your results. It is fine IMHO to suggest ML picks but please consider not putting them in your results summary.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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August 27th, 2019 at 4:01:32 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Because the games are spread out across Thursday, Friday, Sat, Sun, and Monday for Week 1, I've been heavily researching the Thursday night games.

I'm leaning on FIU to beat Tulane at the moment. Right now they are +2 ATS and I know I said ATS is all I would do this year, but the +ML is the better value. FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57. I just can't play the totals this year.

So, for purposes of wagering (and looking at the rules I posted in the first thread), can I still take the better value at +ML on dog picks if I feel they are going to win? Before I place any wager, I'll let a few of you chime in on the interpretations.

Maybe I should have said on vegas oddsmaker favorites, I have to pick an -ATS. But on Vegas oddsmaker underdogs, I have a choice of +ML or +ATS. Does that seem fair?



Since you are buying points your win loss record is already meaningless, so picking money line bets does not change anything. So as long as you use a real line and post it in advance of the game there should be no problem.

You must see the problem with you saying "this game is definitely going over 57". You must know no game is definitely going over 57. Look deep inside your soul.... do you really think there is even a 70% chance the game is going over 57? I know nothing about those teams, the expected weather, the injuries, etc.... But if you gave me 2-1 I'd bet the under. On ANY real Vegas line. There may be inefficiencies in a line, and you may have found one, but please..... not 'definitely'.
DRich
DRich
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August 27th, 2019 at 9:24:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Since you are buying points your win loss record is already meaningless, so picking money line bets does not change anything. So as long as you use a real line and post it in advance of the game there should be no problem.

You must see the problem with you saying "this game is definitely going over 57". You must know no game is definitely going over 57. Look deep inside your soul.... do you really think there is even a 70% chance the game is going over 57? I know nothing about those teams, the expected weather, the injuries, etc.... But if you gave me 2-1 I'd bet the under. On ANY real Vegas line. There may be inefficiencies in a line, and you may have found one, but please..... not 'definitely'.



Great post!!!
Order from chaos
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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August 27th, 2019 at 9:27:05 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

FIU returns many of their offensive and defensive starters and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. The total is also at 57 and I'm saying it right now, this game is definitely going over 57.



You can walk into just about any Vegas sportsbook and theyll gladly take upwards of $50k on that over 57
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
August 27th, 2019 at 10:22:26 AM permalink
Joel: I have a suggestion for you


just make your picks and 86 the commentary - there are dozens of different reasons a person could bet one way or another - anything you post can easily be countered or ridiculed


if you end up winning (by a large margin - i.e. R.O.I - 12% - based on betting equal amounts) you'll have the last laugh - if you don't - 2020 isn't that far away






also: your CAR (Capital at Risk) thing is not in any way helpful to anybody

the only important thing is whether or not you have an edge - every bet should be an equal amount or 1 unit -

then at the end - if you're up - maybe you're good enough to have an edge - or maybe you just got lucky

if you're down - maybe you're not good enough to have an edge - or maybe you were just unlucky

that's the way the cookie crumbles

your CAR (Capital at Risk) thing................................................... that dog won't hunt
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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August 27th, 2019 at 12:25:24 PM permalink
Good points from everyone and I appreciate the responses and the advice. Ill limit my feedback from now on to research info and image wagers.

Thanks again.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson

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