Sports betting discussion thread
Quote: GWAEHe also had Bettis. I don't think Tomlin has had a running back that could run the clock at the end. Although this year Snell seems like he could turn into something very good.
Tomlin is definitely the worst 2 min coach that I have ever seen. I am not sure he understands what timeout are. His record on challenges is also crazy terrible. He will challenge something that no one things will overturn and misses challenges on clear cut screw ups.
It's really amazing that every team in the NFL doesn't have a nerd to tell them what to do on stuff like clock management.
Quote: RigondeauxIt's really amazing that every team in the NFL doesn't have a nerd to tell them what to do on stuff like clock management.
Agreed. For at least the last five years the teams should have a time/scenario strategy coach of some sort.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/29/mysterious-ernie-adams-patriots-man-behind-curtain/IrNCfgrysUphGpkcIjEaBL/story.html
But why emulate the most successful team ever?
I heard The Ravens added a guy this season, and no lead the league in going for it on 4th.
Still might pull it out...
Quote: RigondeauxMy beloved Bills have proven they can hang with anyone. I'd say the breaks favored Balt so far, too.
Still might pull it out...
Why are you a Bills fan? Were you a Marv Levy fan? Orenthal James fan? Jim Kelly fan? Or, were you just unfortunate enough to spend time in upstate NY?
Quote: AZDuffman
Longer term you have to wonder how much tine Ben has left,
Give me some odds and i'll bet he never throws another pass in the NFL.
Quote: RigondeauxI bet them to win the Super Bowel.
Interesting. I was at the game today and they just do not have a QB accurate enough to win the Super Bowel, or Super Intestine, or Super anything......
Quote: SOOPOOGive me some odds and i'll bet he never throws another pass in the NFL.
I’d be surprised if he gives up the remaining $ on his contract. What odds and stakes would you propose?
Quote: unJonI’d be surprised if he gives up the remaining $ on his contract. What odds and stakes would you propose?
He's 38 or so. Elbow surgery for a QB is a big deal. In the NFL I think they can just cut him and pay him $0 for next season, with him thus being an unrestricted free agent. He'd get to keep whatever the pro-rated portion of his signing bonus.
I am also feeling that Brady will not be playing next year.
And Eli Manning as well........
I think if Vegas made odds on Ben playing next year it would be -500 yes, +350 no. So I'll risk $20 against your $80. That's in the middle somewhere.
I'll take same bet on Brady as well.........
Quote: SOOPOOHe's 38 or so. Elbow surgery for a QB is a big deal. In the NFL I think they can just cut him and pay him $0 for next season, with him thus being an unrestricted free agent. He'd get to keep whatever the pro-rated portion of his signing bonus.
I am also feeling that Brady will not be playing next year.
And Eli Manning as well........
I think if Vegas made odds on Ben playing next year it would be -500 yes, +350 no. So I'll risk $20 against your $80. That's in the middle somewhere.
I'll take same bet on Brady as well.........
I’m game. I’d like to do it as a parlay. If both Ben and Tom take a snap next season (during regular season or playoffs) I win. If at least one doesn’t, you win.
If we put both at your 4:1 odds, that puts my parlay at -178. Assuming you are happy to risk $40 total ($20 on Ben and $20 on Brady) that would mean you put up $40 and I put up $71.20.
Bet? Happy to escrow with a willing third party.
Quote: unJonI’m game. I’d like to do it as a parlay. If both Ben and Tom take a snap next season (during regular season or playoffs) I win. If at least one doesn’t, you win.
If we put both at your 4:1 odds, that puts my parlay at -178. Assuming you are happy to risk $40 total ($20 on Ben and $20 on Brady) that would mean you put up $40 and I put up $71.20.
Bet? Happy to escrow with a willing third party.
How about my $25 against your $40? No escrow. If I'm alive I'm good for it. If I'm not you don't want $25 from my widow. I'll trust you. Deal?
The only other requirement I have is that YOU are in charge of remembering we have this bet!
Without trying to be a homer, I really like duck. If I didnt know better and watched him today for the first time I wouldnt guess that he signed as undrafted and only his 3rd start
Quote: SOOPOOHow about my $25 against your $40? No escrow. If I'm alive I'm good for it. If I'm not you don't want $25 from my widow. I'll trust you. Deal?
The only other requirement I have is that YOU are in charge of remembering we have this bet!
You have a bet. Warning I’m likely to forget that we made this bet. In fact this whole interaction now makes me think we made a bet last year also. Maybe for $1? Does that ring a bell to you? I have no idea who one or how to track down what thread it was in.
Quote: GWAEAssuming Ben recovers, how well does duck have to do to take number 1 over healthy Ben? Would it even happen? Any chance duck now replaces Rudolph in long term plans.
Without trying to be a homer, I really like duck. If I didnt know better and watched him today for the first time I wouldnt guess that he signed as undrafted and only his 3rd start
I think Ben plays next year, but maybe not for the full year. Could end up like Bradshaw and play for less than half a game after being out. Could struggle to get in the groove again. Could play a few games and say, "what am I doing here at my age" and phase out,
Duck may replace Rudolph but these locals are going to be disappointed when he goes against some good teams. Even yesterday a punt return, not him, was the difference.
Quote: unJonYou have a bet. Warning I’m likely to forget that we made this bet. In fact this whole interaction now makes me think we made a bet last year also. Maybe for $1? Does that ring a bell to you? I have no idea who one or how to track down what thread it was in.
LOL! We will both try and remember.....
Quote: mcallister3200Zero chance if Ben is healthy, more interesting is if Hodges is backup or Rudolph and if they carry all three. Rudolph clearly has a bigger arm, but really struggled with decision making. To me duck doesn’t really look like he really has an nfl arm, really struggles to throw the ball downfield averaging less than 150 yds/start but they just couldn’t deal with Rudolph’s decision making anymore. I’d need to see what Duck can do when they’re down multiple touchdowns which he hasn’t faced yet to believe a team would be ok with going into a season with him as their starter, but I don’t really think he has the arm talent.
Maybe not throw the ball 60 yards but his 30/40 yard throws were fine. I agree though, need to see his down 10 points with 7 min and has the ball game.
Quote: RigondeauxSteelers are at home.
+115
sure I will take that
I speculated that the road dogs might win a higher % if only games where they got more than 3 points were considered
I tracked this for the entire 2019 NFL regular season - I am not including pushes - there weren't many - I think just 2
Results for road dogs who got more than 3 points:
61-41.........................59.80% winners......................14.17%........ R.O.I
anyone who wants to double check my stats or work on prior seasons can do so at covers.com - they have data going back many years
I plan to scope this out next season too
I am not associated with covers.com in any way and I do not recommend their for pay services. I only mentioned them because they are the only ones I know of who make this kind of historical data publicly available
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
If you haven't watched them, you might not have realized how beastly their D is.
This was the recipe I was hoping for. Open up the play book and get some big plays with Allen's athleticism. Let the d do the rest.
Too bad they didn't pull it out against Baltimore.
Still, went too much into of a shell.
Quote: mcallister3200Allen looks like a young Ben Roethlisberger out there. That is not intended as a compliment.
Why would that not be a compliment? Didn't he win his first 15 starts in a row?
I'm sure they would gleefully take Ben's career as a result for the Allen pick. If he can similarly reign in the errors he could be very good.
Quote: mcallister3200Correct, they were quite successful with him only throwing it 20 times per game riding a historically phenomenal defense and Bettis. I mean when they took the gloves off and let him win games himself maybe late second to third season, wild Ben came out and you’d be like wtf is that guy trying to do out there? Still pretty successful but wildly unpredictable. Third season when they let him throw 30 times/game he had 18 TD’s and 23 picks. 17/15 his 5th season. That version of Ben. 4th season looks like one of the best seasons of his career I guess. Young Ben when they took the gloves off was a wild card.
That’s kind of how a QB career works. You start simple then learn how to read a D.
Just he's not a great QB for the NFL. Just not accurate enough. But he is just good enough because of his amazing running/scrambling ability to continue on with the 'potential' tag. So the Bills with a great D will be stuck with the mediocre QB play until they figure out Josh is not the answer.
Quote: mcallister3200Correct, they were quite successful with him only throwing it 20 times per game riding a historically phenomenal defense and Bettis. I mean when they took the gloves off and let him win games himself maybe late second to third season, wild Ben came out and you’d be like wtf is that guy trying to do out there? Still pretty successful but wildly unpredictable. Third season when they let him throw 30 times/game he had 18 TD’s and 23 picks. 17/15 his 5th season. That version of Ben. 4th season looks like one of the best seasons of his career I guess. Young Ben when they took the gloves off was a wild card.
I am a believer that a QB should average less than 20 passes a game. Football is still about dominating the line. I think you will see it trend that way again in the next few years.
Quote: SOOPOOI love Josh Allen. Amazing competitor. Great teammate. Not afraid of the moment. Etc.
Just he's not a great QB for the NFL. Just not accurate enough. But he is just good enough because of his amazing running/scrambling ability to continue on with the 'potential' tag. So the Bills with a great D will be stuck with the mediocre QB play until they figure out Josh is not the answer.
He's only 23.
He does miss some easy throws but he also gets some completions few others could.
In his defence, he rarely has wide open receivers. Watched several games this year and he is always trying to squeeze it in to blanketed receivers. Sometimes that's on him but usually not.
Sure, if you can draft the next Brees or Wilson that's great but easier said than done.
If they can mold him into kind of a hybrid of Alex Smith and Lamar Jackson that could be pretty darn good. Meaning, a competent qb who also has the ability to make huge plays with his athleticism here and there.
He has made a lot of progress in that direction. At the start of the year he made terrible blunders left and right but he is shaving them down.
The way they started this game on offense is a really good blueprint imo.
Quote: DRichI am a believer that a QB should average less than 20 passes a game. Football is still about dominating the line. I think you will see it trend that way again in the next few years.
I think one reason Bill b is Bill b is, he builds the best machine possible with the parts he has rather than impose a philosophy.
If you have Tom Brady and randy moss, for example, you... Well, you sure don't throw it 16 times a game.
Quote: RigondeauxI think one reason Bill b is Bill b is, he builds the best machine possible with the parts he has rather than impose a philosophy.
If you have Tom Brady and randy moss, for example, you... Well, you sure don't throw it 16 times a game.
I agree, I am thinking more league averages. We will be seeing a lot more college playbooks entering the league after the success of Jackson and Murray. I look forward to it as I think NFL has become boring with everybody running the same offenses and defenses.
How do you convert multiple moneylines on a parlay bet.
IOW, I make bets of -140 and -138, or -135, -198, and +110
Need to know for a personal project.
Quote: AZDuffmanAnother math based question.
How do you convert multiple moneylines on a parlay bet.
IOW, I make bets of -140 and -138, or -135, -198, and +110
Need to know for a personal project.
http://www.donbest.com/calculator/parlay-calculator/
Football is about wining. See youtube's 'wrong ball" wherein a Texas high school Coach stands on the sideline tossing a ball in the air and one of the players calls out "wrong ball'" so the center stand ups and hands the ball to a player who walks slowly down the field toward his coach and after making about 15 yards tucks the ball under his arm and runs for the goalpost.Quote: DRichFootball is still about dominating the line.
NYG +2.5/+150
PIT -2.5/-200
-200 vig? This is rivers Pittsburgh and I assume Sugar House twin site.
Are they trying to take advantage of local Steelers support? Or are the Giants that bad?
The mafia would be embarrassed to charge that kind of juice.
OTOH, is this worth it to take the Giants? I am not so sure as a 50 cent line is an insult.
That’s an alternate line. The regular line is Steeers -6 -110. Of course you have to get shorter odds to get the Steelers at -2.5.Quote: AZDuffmanHas anyone else seen this?
NYG +2.5/+150
PIT -2.5/-200
-200 vig? This is rivers Pittsburgh and I assume Sugar House twin site.
Are they trying to take advantage of local Steelers support? Or are the Giants that bad?
The mafia would be embarrassed to charge that kind of juice.
OTOH, is this worth it to take the Giants?
Quote: unJonThat’s an alternate line. The regular line is Steeers -6 -110. Of course you have to get shorter odds to get the Steelers at -2.5.
Wondering if there is a programming or input error by the casino? I have seen alternate lines offered, but the "main" line was always normal -110 juice.
Quote: AZDuffmanWondering if there is a programming or input error by the casino? I have seen alternate lines offered, but the "main" line was always normal -110 juice.
Maybe they got more action than they were expecting on the alternate line and are trying to pimp it to balance the action?
Quote: Mission146Maybe they got more action than they were expecting on the alternate line and are trying to pimp it to balance the action?
Either that or the -2 1/2 was put out there with the built in window. The -2 1/2 would be popular by design, so much more likely the latter. "Window" wagers almost always have a higher house edge, so it's to a book's advantage to train clients to bet sports like baseball or hockey with windows rather than standard 11/10 vig.
Quote: Mission146Maybe they got more action than they were expecting on the alternate line and are trying to pimp it to balance the action?
They are just trying to not go to -3 because everybody will bet the other side with the Giants +3. A lot of exposure for the casino.
Quote: DRichThey are just trying to not go to -3 because everybody will bet the other side with the Giants +3. A lot of exposure for the casino.
But the line everywhere is Steelers -6 or 5.5.
Quote: unJonBut the line everywhere is Steelers -6 or 5.5.
Yes, this appears to be an alternate line. If I was to bet the Steelers I would rather lay 2.5 at -150 than lay 6 at -110.
Quote: DRichYes, this appears to be an alternate line. If I was to bet the Steelers I would rather lay 2.5 at -150 than lay 6 at -110.
Guys,
It's easy to figure out if something like this is worth it. Just take the -2 1/2 and add the juice you would pay for each additional half point and then see where you stand at the end versus the line in front of you. For the record, I know of only one boutique offshore that does not penalize you for betting onto or off NFL three. I know one other one where they penalize you to buy onto three but not off. Some places it's a -115 onto and off. So bear those potential variations in mind.
So without the penalties, going to
-5 1/2 -- -120
-5 -- -130
-4 1/2 -- -140
-4 -- -150
-3 1/2 -- -160
-3 -- 170
-2 1/2 -- -180
When you add in the penalty for buying onto and off -3, you arrive at -200 most places, -190 several places, and -180 at the one small boutique book.
Now most places won't allow buying that many points, but some do. Most limit it to buying two points or thereabouts.
In conclusion, the -200 for the -2 1/2 is right on the button, pretty much.
Sorry, guys, reverse the chart, but that's right. I'm typing this while on the bubble in an online poker tournament, so forgive me. I fixed it. I cashed -- yay. Dinner money.
Quote: redietzEither that or the -2 1/2 was put out there with the built in window. The -2 1/2 would be popular by design, so much more likely the latter. "Window" wagers almost always have a higher house edge, so it's to a site advantage to train clients to bet sports like baseball or hockey with windows rather than standard 11/10 vig.
Correct! This site contains useful information for both newbies and experienced gamblers who have fought against a lot of bookmakers.
