Sports betting discussion thread

Quote: GWAE

Why is it that we always do great at gambling on your first go around and makes it seem easy. My first trip to a casino where I was 18 I won $800 on haywire 3 reel.

I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live. They range from +115 to -180. At this rate I will retire by the end of the year. Doing $100 bets, up $890.

Now that I wrote this I will go 1-12

Just keep betting against the Pirates, you may be able to retire by Labor Day.

Quote: GWAE

Why is it that we always do great at gambling on your first go around and makes it seem easy. My first trip to a casino where I was 18 I won $800 on haywire 3 reel.

I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live. They range from +115 to -180. At this rate I will retire by the end of the year. Doing $100 bets, up $890.

Now that I wrote this I will go 1-12

WMW JR.

Quote: GWAE

I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live.

there's a pretty good chance you've discovered the 𝑯𝑶𝑳𝒀 𝑮𝑹𝑨𝑰𝑳

Quote: AxelWolf

WMW JR.

lmao I will post my picks for tonight and watch me go 0-3

ETA. On second thought maybe I should make a YouTube channel

Quote: AZDuffman

Just keep betting against the Pirates, you may be able to retire by Labor Day.

tell me about it. Bet the over, ML with other team, and RL as well. Maybe do a parlay with them.

Quote: GWAE

tell me about it. Bet the over, ML with other team, and RL as well. Maybe do a parlay with them.

Year after I moved back they went 3-30 or something the end of the season. I knew zero about betting baseball then. Since they have collapsed a few times down the stretch. Now I can jump in.

Maybe I need to start a meetup group for local sports bettors. Not sure if people would come to that or would want to hide their systems.

Quote: GWAE

tell me about it. Bet the over, ML with other team, and RL as well. Maybe do a parlay with them.

If you find a book accepting those sort of parlays pm please...

My award winning picks for tonight. I am not sharing my 5 team parlay winner. ;-)

Min -145
Cin -140
LAD -150

I got $100 on each. $300 to win $207.07 WMW dont go stealing my picks.

Quote: GWAE

My award winning picks for tonight. I am not sharing my 5 team parlay winner. ;-)

Min -145
Cin -140
LAD -150

I got $100 on each. $300 to win $207.07 WMW dont go stealing my picks.

Let’s see how dodgers respond to their worst loss of the season so far.

Quote: michael99000

Let’s see how dodgers respond to their worst loss of the season so far.

I expect a big game going against Freeland.

If you win 0 you lose it all
if you win 1 you lose
if you win 2 you more or less break even
if you win all 3 you win cash

That is the problem with favorites is you almost have to win every game. Good luck tonight. I will be rooting for you.

Quote: vegas

If you win 0 you lose it all
if you win 1 you lose
if you win 2 you more or less break even
if you win all 3 you win cash

That is the problem with favorites is you almost have to win every game. Good luck tonight. I will be rooting for you.

yes it is. Based on my early stats it looks like you need to go about 70% to make money. As I am brand new into this I am trying to not read to much and figure things out on my own. Sports betting seems to be full of people like craps system sellers. I figured I would just reinvent the wheel.

ohh and F you Pirates.

Quote: GWAE

My award winning picks for tonight. I am not sharing my 5 team parlay winner. ;-)
Min -145
Cin -140
LAD -150

I got $100 on each. $300 to win $207.07 WMW dont go stealing my picks.

I don't want to clutter this thread with my garbage picks but every once in awhile maybe I will instead of everyday. Todays results.

Min -145 w 168.97
Cin -140 l
LAD -150 w 166.67
+35.64
14-2 +924.18

Quote: GWAE

I don't want to clutter this thread with my garbage picks but every once in awhile maybe I will instead of everyday. Todays results.

Min -145 w 168.97
Cin -140 l
LAD -150 w 166.67
+35.64
14-2 +924.18

Message Board Sports Bet Posting Rule #1

Thou shall not include unposted plays in your record.

Quote: GWAE

Why is it that we always do great at gambling on your first go around and makes it seem easy. My first trip to a casino where I was 18 I won $800 on haywire 3 reel.

I am 12-1 on MLB ML on my first 13 bets since pa online went live. They range from +115 to -180. At this rate I will retire by the end of the year. Doing $100 bets, up $890.

Now that I wrote this I will go 1-12

Are the online markets in PA better than the live sportsbooks? Every random time I make a trip around the state and go through rivers the lines are awful. Like you can get a line online at -110, at rivers it's -120. If online it's +145, at rivers it'll be +130. I feel like they shave / take a 2 dime charge instead of 1 like every other sportsbook in the world.

12-1 is great, of course, but variance is variance my friend. Even the best cappers come in around 58%-60%. I expect regression to the mean eventually, but hopefully you get that good EV!

Quote: michael99000

Message Board Sports Bet Posting Rule #1

Thou shall not include unposted plays in your record.

lol yes I understand that because I could obviously just make the record up. If I had gone 6-6 then I would have just not posted anything. Currently on a run good and just wanted to post it.

Quote: Romes

Are the online markets in PA better than the live sportsbooks? Every random time I make a trip around the state and go through rivers the lines are awful. Like you can get a line online at -110, at rivers it's -120. If online it's +145, at rivers it'll be +130. I feel like they shave / take a 2 dime charge instead of 1 like every other sportsbook in the world.

12-1 is great, of course, but variance is variance my friend. Even the best cappers come in around 58%-60%. I expect regression to the mean eventually, but hopefully you get that good EV!

I know next to nothing about all of this. I have been using https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/ to look at the lines that are available online. Right now WAS at the rivers is +105 and on that site they range +100 to +105 so it is close, however ATL is -120 but online it is -111 to -120. The Pirates/Reds game at the rivers is 185/-215 and online it is 180-190/203-212 . What it appears is that the lines for online books is very dynamic the lines for the rivers online are stale. The opening lines on those games are the same or worse at the rivers, or maybe they just dont move as much. Even while typing this the lines on that website were moving all over the place.

now for bad lines that would be parx online.
Game/ Rivers / Parx
WAS -120/105 -124/102
CIN +185/-215 +180/-225

Hopefully my variance continues. If not at least not I am playing with "house" money at this point.

Quote: GWAE

My award winning picks for tonight. I am not sharing my 5 team parlay winner. ;-)

Min -145
Cin -140
LAD -150

I got $100 on each. $300 to win $207.07 WMW dont go stealing my picks.

Chalk much?

Quote: SM777

Chalk much?

yeah whats wrong with that?

Yesterdays chalk losers.

SD -242
NYY -240
Cin -140
BOS -140
TEX -122
CHC -130

2-1 seems pretty ok with those big favorites losing

Quote: GWAE

yeah whats wrong with that?

Sounds incredibly profitable long term. Best of luck.

Quote: SM777

Sounds incredibly profitable long term. Best of luck.

Who ever said it was? In fact I said I have no idea what I am doing. Playing craps is also not profitable but many of us do that. I went to the movies on Friday which is also not profitable.

Lets jump back into this thread with a topical question.

Does anybody have an opinion on how to best make money off baseball lets call them "kings" and "scrubs" at this time of year? For lack of a better word, "kings" would be the top team in each division, maybe call it the top 5, all in the playoff hunt. "Scrubs" are teams at the bottom, like Miami and Pittsburgh, no chance of going anywhere.

I ask now because we are past the trade deadline and at the point in the season where the scrubs have next to no reason to care, in the old days we might say their motivation is to lose fast so they can get home in time for "The Tonight Show." Invent a reason for today. We also are past the trade deadline. many shed their best players last week.

Consider the Pirates have lost 21 of their last 25 and both NY teams are burning the grass on the infield they are so hot.

I lost twice this week hoping the Pirates would show life. Now looking for any favorite systems of investing part of a win to increase the next win vs flat betting where you will lose long term on the juice. Flip it for the "kings." Occasional loss takes games to make up.

Thoughts?

Quote: AZDuffman

Lets jump back into this thread with a topical question.

Does anybody have an opinion on how to best make money off baseball lets call them "kings" and "scrubs" at this time of year? For lack of a better word, "kings" would be the top team in each division, maybe call it the top 5, all in the playoff hunt. "Scrubs" are teams at the bottom, like Miami and Pittsburgh, no chance of going anywhere.

I ask now because we are past the trade deadline and at the point in the season where the scrubs have next to no reason to care, in the old days we might say their motivation is to lose fast so they can get home in time for "The Tonight Show." Invent a reason for today. We also are past the trade deadline. many shed their best players last week.

Consider the Pirates have lost 21 of their last 25 and both NY teams are burning the grass on the infield they are so hot.

I lost twice this week hoping the Pirates would show life. Now looking for any favorite systems of investing part of a win to increase the next win vs flat betting where you will lose long term on the juice. Flip it for the "kings." Occasional loss takes games to make up.

Thoughts?

Everything you are saying is factored into the lines on these games. The oddsmakers are well aware that there’s good teams and bad teams and some have more to play for than others.
The problem is, many of these horrible teams remain more motivated than you’d think. Look back at any MLB September day to day scoreboard and you’ll see tons of games where a scrub playing out the string beat a team that badly needed the win for playoff reasons. You’ll even see series sweeps by the bad team. Motivation is way overrated when it comes to handicapping sports , once these guys step between the lines they are all trying to win. And baseball is one sport where “trying harder” than usual to win is probably more of a hindrance than a help.

Bet I plan on placing before the season starts:

Pat Mahomes OVER 36.5 Td passes.

I certainly understand a year 2 regression is likely, but after throwing 50 as a rookie, I think he still gets over 36

If he stays healthy is a big factor of course for any football player prop.

Quote: michael99000

Bet I plan on placing before the season starts:

Pat Mahomes OVER 36.5 Td passes.

I certainly understand a year 2 regression is likely, but after throwing 50 as a rookie, I think he still gets over 36

If he stays healthy is a big factor of course for any football player prop.

I think you need to factor in how many games does the average starting quarterback play each year? I would guess it s probably around 12.5.

Request for information.


OTHER THAN MLB.COM and baseballreference, is there a site where I can easily make a printout of final MLB standings by year that will easily fit on one page?

I do not care about putting it on a spreadsheet. MLB.COM has some formatting issues I do not like for what I am doing. I need to be able to hold a sheet in my hand and make some notes. I need 5-10 years back.

Ideas?

Quote: AZDuffman

Request for information.


OTHER THAN MLB.COM and baseballreference, is there a site where I can easily make a printout of final MLB standings by year that will easily fit on one page?

I do not care about putting it on a spreadsheet. MLB.COM has some formatting issues I do not like for what I am doing. I need to be able to hold a sheet in my hand and make some notes. I need 5-10 years back.

Ideas?

ESPN.com on their MLB standings has a drop down that you can select previous years that definitely goes back to 2009. Not sure if you'll like the format, but it's an option.

https://businessofbetting.com/2019/09/02/the-inherent-conflict-with-betting-content/

Very good article here.

Quote: AZDuffman

Lets jump back into this thread with a topical question.

Does anybody have an opinion on how to best make money off baseball lets call them "kings" and "scrubs" at this time of year? For lack of a better word, "kings" would be the top team in each division, maybe call it the top 5, all in the playoff hunt. "Scrubs" are teams at the bottom, like Miami and Pittsburgh, no chance of going anywhere.

I ask now because we are past the trade deadline and at the point in the season where the scrubs have next to no reason to care, in the old days we might say their motivation is to lose fast so they can get home in time for "The Tonight Show." Invent a reason for today. We also are past the trade deadline. many shed their best players last week.

Consider the Pirates have lost 21 of their last 25 and both NY teams are burning the grass on the infield they are so hot.

I lost twice this week hoping the Pirates would show life. Now looking for any favorite systems of investing part of a win to increase the next win vs flat betting where you will lose long term on the juice. Flip it for the "kings." Occasional loss takes games to make up.

Thoughts?

All we are doing in sports betting is looking for long term value. It is very similar to poker. If I call off my stack with a flush draw after the turn and I'm getting 5-1 pot odds I will show a long term profit.....math is math. I will lose 4 out of 5 times but the one time I win will make up for the losses plus some. So it's a +EV play in the long run. We are looking to do the same in sports betting.

One way to seek value late in the season is to look at these ridiculous favorites. We recently seen the almighty Houston Astros lose to the Orioles as -480 favorites and then Tigers as -525 favorites! You will often hear people say this is a "MUST WIN" game for a team. Well just because it's very important they win doesn't mean their chances of winning go up as drastically as people think. There lies value.

Another example would be recently the Cubs went on the road to face the Mets. The Cubs have been horrific on the road this season (around 14 games under .500) and now had to face Stroman, Syndergaard and deGrom! Stroman opened -120, Syndergaard opened -130 and deGrom opened -185 (closed -215) no way Cubs could sweep so action came piling in on deGrom. Well guess what the Cubs pulled off a 3 game sweep in New York as an underdog in all 3 games!

Now the Cubs come back to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field where they have been GREAT (around 20 games OVER .500) and facing the Milwaukee Brewers who had lost 9 of last 15 games and sliding out of contention! Seems like an easy spot to take the red hot Cubs after sweeping the Mets! Brewers win 2 out of 3 and shut out the Cubs in back to back games! The real value here lied in games 2 and 3. The Cubs win game one of the series 7-1 confirming in the minds of all the bettors that the Cubs are HOT and gonna continue their dominance. What do we see in the 2nd game? The Cubs open as a -140 favorite and the money comes piling in and by game time the Cubs are -180! Brewers win 2-0. Sunday comes along and the Cubs bettors are gonna get their money back! Things got muddied up because there was a pitching change. If Darvish would have started you would have seen an insane betting line but Chatwood started instead and the line opened with Chatwood -150 and the pros gobbled up the Brewers and it closed at Cubs -135 and the Brewers win 4-0.

So anyways these were just a couple examples of seeking value. Hopefully it wasn't too long winded and made sense. Feel free to hit me with questions.

Some examples of value (in my opinion) going tonight.....

Rangers +300
***The Yankees were shut out yesterday for the first time in some 220 games in a 7-0 loss to the Rangers. So what does the average Joe think? OMG REVENGE...no way the Yanks lose 2 in a row to the Rangers! They are gonna be pissed they got shut out and will probably score 15+ today! Well maybe that WILL happen but maybe not. If Yanks win in a blow out...who cares...we just want to get our money in good from a long term perspective and deal with variance. Maybe there was a reason the Yanks got shut out yesterday.....maybe it's the beginning of a slump? Maybe they are playing a lil softer to avoid injury with a big division lead, maybe they are more focused on individual stats than taking good at bats for the team...who knows...all I know is +300 is sweet on a team that has won 3 of it's last 4 games.

Nationals first 5 innings -120
***Call this one more of a handicapping play but I've watched the Nationals playing recently and they are really taking great at bats and imo are a much better team than the Mets. The Mets have been the talk of late for their great run since the all start break but they have played a bunch of bad teams and this run is overrated. deGrom obviously is an elite pitcher but so is Scherzer and I like the Nats offense much better here. I want to avoid the Nats shitty bullpen so I'm taking first half.

White Sox +280
***Obviously the Indians are a much better team than the rebuilding White Sox but the White Sox have some very dynamic young players. I love looking for spots like this with young teams. They can beat anyone and are too young and confident to be intimidated by anyone. Again the narrative here would be the Indians are fighting for a Wild Card spot just 1 game behind the Rays for home field for that WC game but only 2 games ahead of the A's so this is an important game for them. They have Clevinger on the mound who was the AL pitcher of the month for August! Seems like slam dunk win for the tribe....hence long term value on the pale hose!

Giants +250
***Cardinals have been winning everyday and people are jumping on the gravy train! value on giants



Sorry for long post...started off as a discussion then I didn't want to sound like someone that just points out stuff from the past so figured I'd show my thinking on some stuff for tonight....like I said though I seek long term value...so tonight can easily go 0-3 or 3-0 and it won't matter either way. It's all about getting your money in good and deal with the variance and get paid long term. Sorry if any of this was confusing as I'm not much of a writer. Good luck all!


RD

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?

Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?

Probably yes, but it is early so itis hard to tell.

Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?

Patriots beat Pit by 30 and Miami lost at home to Baltimore by 49

this line might grow higher lol. Clearly there will be an overreaction to week 1 results and there will probably be some value on Miami. I'm gonna monitor it. Unfortunately when the betting line is this high the general public tends to stay away. They don't like the idea of laying THAT many points. Patriots will probably get used in lots of teasers by the public.

Quote: DRich

I think you need to factor in how many games does the average starting quarterback play each year? I would guess it s probably around 12.5.

Using this same logic, I wonder if it would be profitable to take every single season-long player prop UNDER. Especially running backs (who are more inclined to get injured or banged up). For instance, does anyone think Joe Mixon overs are cashing now?

Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?

Miami money line should be very good if it goes any higher

Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?

I took some Miami +19 starting to see resistance as it's moving back down to +18.5 some places.

Quote: SM777

https://businessofbetting.com/2019/09/02/the-inherent-conflict-with-betting-content/

Very good article here.

You could substitute stock picking for sports betting. Watch one of those shows. You never hear "MSFT priced at 40. exactly where it should be!"

Quote: EdgeSorter

Using this same logic, I wonder if it would be profitable to take every single season-long player prop UNDER. Especially running backs (who are more inclined to get injured or banged up). For instance, does anyone think Joe Mixon overs are cashing now?

It depends if you believe that there are players more likely to get injured than others. I believe that Brady, by way of his 'pocket presence', and lack of scrambling, is far less likely to get injured than Allen or Watson, as examples. RB's who make it to the sideline more (avoiding contact) likely have lower injury possibilities,

The best example is Wentz's injury. That NEVER happens to Brady or P Manning because they are never making that run.

Quote: TomG

Miami money line should be very good if it goes any higher

Quote: SOOPOO

It depends if you believe that there are players more likely to get injured than others. I believe that Brady, by way of his 'pocket presence', and lack of scrambling, is far less likely to get injured than Allen or Watson, as examples. RB's who make it to the sideline more (avoiding contact) likely have lower injury possibilities,

The best example is Wentz's injury. That NEVER happens to Brady or P Manning because they are never making that run.

Very good point. This leads to the question, "Is expected number of games played in a season properly baked into the line?"

Every team/athlete is a good bet at the right number.

Quote: AZDuffman

Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?

They lost by 43-0. Miami is terrible. Maybe the worst NFL team in 40 years.

Now its Cowboys -21 vs Miami. Apply brain and figure this out.

Roethlisberger our for season, maybe career. Had surgery similar to Tommy John. Glad I took the under for the season.

Got kind of lucky last night. I had a big win pending on the parlay cards if the falcons game went over 51.5.

So first off, I tried to take a nap but I didn't fall asleep.

Second off, I thought about middling/hedging and decided to stick to my principles. I wasn't going to make a terrible bet to hedge. Nothing was available.

I checked again a while later and Boyd had u53.5 which was close to neutral ev and gave me a decent middle. I got it. I still would have made a lot more if the game went over, but that bungling INT fest was far less painful. Hitting a royal on VP also helped.

Quote: gordonm888

Now its Cowboys -21 vs Miami. Apply brain and figure this out.

The first two Miami games were both blowouts at home. This game is in Dallas.

At least when the Browns were 0-16 they played a lot of competitive games.

Quote: GWAE

Roethlisberger our for season, maybe career. Had surgery similar to Tommy John. Glad I took the under for the season.

You too?

Wish I put real money on under. I had a weird feeling about Ben going into decline.

Quote: AZDuffman

You too?

Wish I put real money on under. I had a weird feeling about Ben going into decline.

yeah I do not have a large amount on it, but not an insignificant amount either. Watch Rudolph be the second coming of Roethislisberger and win 14 straight.

Quote: GWAE

yeah I do not have a large amount on it, but not an insignificant amount either. Watch Rudolph be the second coming of Roethislisberger and win 14 straight.

Big thing missing. Ben was just handing off the ball so much back then. Tomlin has let the running game rot to nothing.

Quote: AZDuffman

Big thing missing. Ben was just handing off the ball so much back then. Tomlin has let the running game rot to nothing.

Tomlin is not a good coach. People that think so either don't watch their games or just don't understand football.

Quote: DRich

Tomlin is not a good coach. People that think so either don't watch their games or just don't understand football.

I dont think anyone around here thinks that. He is not liked well locally as a coach.

LOL at dolphins trading their young star to the steelers. Are they trying to set a record for points against?

Quote: GWAE

I dont think anyone around here thinks that. He is not liked well locally as a coach.

LOL at dolphins trading their young star to the steelers. Are they trying to set a record for points against?

GWAE 3 9 25.00%

LOL

Quote: AxelWolf

GWAE 3 9 25.00%

LOL

haha isnt that great. next week going back to last years strategy of flipping coins