WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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ksdjdj
June 10th, 2019 at 1:05:39 PM permalink
I dont see the warriors losing tonight. They need to bring it all... or they are done. I took them as one of my plays on my parlay for the day. I moved the line to warriors -1.5 (plus 115).
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 10th, 2019 at 1:48:35 PM permalink
Line update:

The +1.5 @ CIRCA for Raptors is gone now, the average line at most sports books is about "coin-flip odds" (offshore and Vegas), though some are still +1 for either team.

Other info:

I haven't put up my new spread estimate, because the website I use as a guide has not put up "what K D is worth***" yet, any opinions would be much appreciated.

***: I have a rough estimate, but the website I use is about 50% of the "complete estimate" i use, for player status changes.


Had $1000^^^ @ +3 on the Warriors @ $2, and will wait and see if the books I use get above +1.5 before I decide to bet on the Raptors.

^^^: I was going to reduce it to $100 "for fun" bet by game time, if K D was not playing.

------
Update (205 pm Pac time)
Will be away from Pc for a up to an hour, so I won't be able to update the current spread^*^, and predictions (if any).

^*^: but you can find that out from Vegas Insider and other websites.

------
Update (~325 pm Pac time)

Average (mode) line is -1 for Warriors @ Off shore and Vegas books, but you can still get +1 @ PEPPERMILL (according to vegas insider)


My new estimated spread for this game is now Raptors as 0.25*^* favorites

*^*: I arrived at this by using the following numbers below.
My opinion (if K D was brought back in after being out for one game only and 100% fit): 6 points
My adjusted opinion: 4.8 to 5.4 points (5.1 average)
Website's opinion: 2 points
Combined opinion: (5.1 x 0.5) + (2 x 0.5) = 3.55 (K D adjustment)

Old spread estimate: Raptors @ -3.8
K D adjustment: 3.55
Current estimate: Raptors @ -0.25


Lastly, I plan to have 880 to 1100 on Raptors if I can get +1.5 or higher.

------------
Update (~355 pm Pac Time)

+1 @ PEPPERMILL is gone, the best line for the Warriors is now "coin-flip" @ WILLIAM HILL.

-----------
Update (~415 pm Pac Time)

None of the Vegas books are offering "pick em" odds anymore, Raptors are +1.5 @ STATIONS.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 10, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 10th, 2019 at 4:22:05 PM permalink
Offer:

I am looking to back the Raptors +1.5 @ a price of $2.00 for up to 1000*** AUD (or up to 700 USD)

***: I would prefer to bet AUD, but since this is a US site, I am also offering the USD "equivalent".


"First come, first served" and " the minimum bet I will accept (per person) is $50 AUD/$35 USD"

Contact me by PM if interested.

This post/offer is subject to change, but the agreement made by PM^^^ is final.

^^^: a summary of the bet/agreement made in the PM will be posted on this thread as well as your username (unless you specifically ask me not to post your username).

——-
New offer( ~515 pm pac time):

I would like to back raptors for 800 Aud (or 560 usd) @ money line of +115 .


——

Also the raptors are not available at +1.5 with any Vegas sports book now; so that is why the original offer was “canceled “.

Sent by phone

———
Update (~540 pm pac time)

Raptors @ +1.5 are now available at 5 (or more) Vegas books

Sent by phone

----
Update (~550pm pax time)

All offers cancelled as it is about 10 minutes to advertised game time .

—-
Update (near game time/last update til after game)

At least one Vegas book has raptors @ +2

By phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 10, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 10th, 2019 at 6:55:21 PM permalink
Bad news, K d is out a bit over 2 minutes into second quarter.

After this I took partial “cash out” and can now win ~420 or lose 0 on the warriors @ +3

Sent by phone
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 11th, 2019 at 12:20:56 AM permalink
Game (06/13):

Line Estimate: I think the Raptors should be 1 to 3 point dogs (average +2)

I managed to back the Raptors +4.5 and had 1440 @ -120 (missed the -110, because I was at the movies).

If you are a Raptors punter, you should bet the +4 available now (at 3 books according to vegas insider) and
if you are a Warriors punter, you should wait, and hope that the trend continues down (i think they will be at least -3 favorites by game day, or lower)

note: KD is "doubtful" on one website and "out" on another that I use, but I am treating him as out for my "Line Estimate".
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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June 11th, 2019 at 11:49:56 AM permalink
RIP Durant’s prime. He might be 32 before he plays a game again and coming off an Achilles, chance of being an MVP level player again are slim, he should still always be an all star if he can stay on the court based on size and extreme skill alone. What a bad look on the segment of fans who were cheering the injury. It’s a different wide open nba now, we’re looking fairly clearly at post prime on both LeBron and KD now.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 11th, 2019 at 2:02:29 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

RIP...What a bad look on the segment of fans who were cheering the injury...


Yes it was, and because of that I still don't know that when they started "clapping" for him/ at him as he was leaving the court, if it was a sign of respect*** or not.

*** : usually most/all fan's clap any player off the field/court as a sign of respect, when they are badly injured but conscious.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 11, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 11th, 2019 at 2:24:59 PM permalink
If you are a Raptors punter you should take the +3.0 available at most books (if you haven't already bet).
If you are a Warriors punter I think you should wait, but -2.5 is available @ WESTGATE SUPERBOOK, if you wish to bet now.

The line has been trending down so far, with majority of the early $ and % on the Raptors. (Edit: changed some of the Wording @ ~ 4pm)

Update (~4 pm)

The +3 is still available for the Raptors (at most books according to vegas insider).
I think the Warriors have about an 84% chance to go to -2.5 and a 60% chance to go through -2.0, so I think Warriors punters should wait.
This will probably be my last update for the day, as I will be busy with other things
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 11, 2019
michael99000
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ksdjdj
June 11th, 2019 at 3:41:44 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Yes it was, and because of that I still don't know that when they started "clapping" for him/ at him as he was leaving the court, if it was a sign of respect*** or not.

*** : usually most/all fan's clap any player off the field/court as a sign of respect, when they are badly injured but conscious.



They were initially cheering that he was injured. The loudest cheers came the moment he grabbed his leg and fell to the court.

The cheers you heard as he walked off were only because the raptors players scolded the crowd for cheering that someone got injured.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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June 11th, 2019 at 6:19:12 PM permalink
Gotta hand it to KD. He risked many millions to try to help get the title.

Idk. Maybe he can still get a long max deal because he is KD but an injury of that magnitude can't help
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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June 11th, 2019 at 10:05:43 PM permalink
He won’t have any trouble getting a max deal. He might not be ready for opening night next year but he will be back. He might not be explosive anymore but he’s so talented with an amazing jumper that he doesn’t necessarily need to be explosive to be great.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 12th, 2019 at 3:11:10 AM permalink
If you are planning to bet on the over, then the 210.5 @ MIRAGE-MGM and TREASURE ISLAND looks good***, I would expect it to be 211.5-212.5 at most books within 16 hours.

***: I am probably going to have a small bet on the under if it gets out to 214.5 + ( I am not betting on the over at this time).

---------
update (~1230 pm Pac time)

My line estimate hasn't changed (still Raptors @ +2.0) but I think the next line change will be towards the Warriors (78% chance that they go to -3 at most to all books).
In other words, if you are a Warriors punter you should take the -2.5 (available at most Vegas books atm) and,
If you are a Raptors punter you should wait or take the +3.0 (available at COASTS, WYNN, CIRCA and MIRAGE-MGM according to Vegas Insider).

The 210.5 total is gone , and it is now between 211 - 212, with most @ 211.5.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 12, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 12th, 2019 at 8:14:22 PM permalink
looney is still “50/50”, and it looks like the line is going to stabilise between 2.5 and 3 for now

Since I will probably be asleep when they decide If looney*** is in or out, then i would probably adjust my estimate for warriors to -1 (if he his out) and up to -3.25 ( if he is in)

***: this is just my estimate , I will put up a more rounded estimate when I look at the website tomorrow that gives me their estimate of what it is worth having him play (or not)

Got to 212.5 with at least one book now, but most are between 211 and 212 (211.5 average),
If you like the under you should bet now,
If you like the over wait as I think it will be between 211 and 210, in 5 hours or less

Sent by phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 12, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 13th, 2019 at 12:43:50 PM permalink
Going through the "vegas insider line movements" page, it looked like the total may have touched 211 at some books before spiking and now the 212.5 seems to be the average (212, 212.5 and one book with 214***).

***: Available at stations according to Vegas insider,

There is + 3 available for the Raptors @ two books now, the rest are +2.5 (will still be fairly stable til the books/punters have an idea about looney)

i think the fair total should be around 212, so I had a 440 on the over 210.5 I (would have preferred to bet on the under, but only if it gets out to 214 +).

-------
Update (~ 2pm pac time)

the 214 is no longer available at STATIONS, 213 @ PEPPERMILL is the highest (most are at 212 or 212.5)

-------
Update (~ 440pm pac time)

If you are going to bet the under, I recommend you take the 213 @ PEPPERMILL, as I think the average total is about to go to 211.5 (or lower).

Looney is active, and I think the line should hover around -2.5 to -3 for the Warriors, by game time.

-----
Posted about 515 pm Pac time

My bets are:

note: bets with a *** next to them can be cancelled or amended (usually for "free") with the bookmaker i use.

***Raptors @ + 4.5: 1440 to win 1200
***Over 210.5: 110 to win 100 (was originally a bigger bet)
Warriors (win 3rd quarter) : 90 @ -120 (just a "for fun" wager)

Teaser 1 (Ties win, 4.5 point basketball and 5.5 point football):

600 @ +310

6/13/19 9:05pm 532 Golden State Warriors (1st 48 min&&& ) +4^^^ * vs Toronto Raptors
8/31/19 3:30pm College Football 181 South Carolina -2 * vs North Carolina
8/31/19 4:00pm College Football 188 Boston College +8 * vs Virginia Tech
8/31/19 7:30pm College Football 204 Pittsburgh U +8 * vs Virginia

Teaser 2 (also a Ties win, 4.5 point basketball and 5.5 point football):

1400 @ +101

6/13/19 9:05pm 532 Golden State Warriors (1st 48 min&&&) +4^^^ * vs Toronto Raptors
6/15/19 7:00pm Canadian Football 686 Calgary Stampeders -2½ * vs Ottawa Redblacks

&&&: this means that this part of the bet wins if the game ends in a regulation tie.

^^^: even though it is officially a 4.5 pt basketball teaser, I only just had the bet so I am getting the equivalent of 7 points (since it is "ties win") based on the current spread on offer, and the fact that it "passes through 0" doesn't matter, because of the above explanation (see &&&),

--------
Update (~520 pm)

Looks like the average public line is going to go from 2.5 and could head towards 2 (70% chance),
So if you are a Raptors punter you should take the +3 available (MGM Mirage, according to Vegas insider)
If you are a Warriors punter you should wait, as I think the -2.5 (or better) will still be available by game time.

The total is hovering around 211.5-212 (average)

Note: this will be the last update until after the game.

---------
About 2-22 left in the third, k t is out and getting checked

Update: He will not be back for this game

Sent by phone

———-
Update (after game)

Raptors: 114
Warriors: 110

All my bets for this game have won. just have to hope the other legs in my teaser bet, get up too.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 13, 2019
BlackjackPro
BlackjackPro
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July 10th, 2019 at 6:17:55 PM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

But what if Spike Lee attacked Reggie Miller?

In all seriousness, we kind of saw what is being argued about here about 15 years ago at the Malice at the Palace. In the fracas Ron Artest went after a white fan like 7 to 10 rows up in the stands who had absolutely zero to do with what actually happened. Artest got a year suspension, I personally think he should have been thrown out of the league



This is why Players shouldn't be allowed to go up the stands and hit/threaten people. This isn't the first time a Celebrity had some jerk fan/hater do something wrong to them and ended up hitting/threatening the wrong person who was completely innocent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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July 11th, 2019 at 12:29:09 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

He won’t have any trouble getting a max deal. He might not be ready for opening night next year but he will be back. He might not be explosive anymore but he’s so talented with an amazing jumper that he doesn’t necessarily need to be explosive to be great.



He got the max. I think it will turn out to be a mistake. He does need to be ‘explosive’ to be great. Look at Cousins. He would not even be ranked in top 100 of NBA players now. He was a top multidimensional player before his Achilles. I’d bet Durant is not a top 50 player when he gets back.
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