ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 2nd, 2019 at 9:19:54 PM permalink
Game 2 saw the Warriors do what they seem to do often, and make a come back and win after being 10-20 down (i think they were 12 behind in this game).

I am lucky that i had a partial cash out of my bet when the Raptors were up by 8.

My spread estimate for game 3 hasn't changed much (as I think the Raptors should be 3.25 point dogs now), so I had an early bet on the Raptors again at +5.5, bet 1320 to win 1200.

Also, the under*** for game 3 looks like it should be around 211-212, so I thought there was a small amount of value on the under for the total of 214, bet 880 to win 800 on the under.

***: took the under 215.5 for game two, but since I did a partial cashed out early in the first quarter, the bet went from a "lose $770 or win $700" into a "lose $0 or win $220".

Lastly, I had a small bet again on the Warriors, $150 to win $150 to win the third quarter, but that is something that anyone could pick with their eyes closed.

Results are one win and one loss (for the spread bets posted on this thread).

I will try to post when I think there will be a spread /total change, but I am working the next 3 days, so no promises.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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June 3rd, 2019 at 5:45:13 AM permalink
If you think OG Anunoby is worth 1.5 points to the spread, you should probably cease all sports betting immediately.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 3rd, 2019 at 2:31:12 PM permalink
i thought he was worth about 0.5 to 1, so i used 0.75 in my figure.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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June 3rd, 2019 at 3:54:04 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

i thought he was worth about 0.5 to 1, so i used 0.75 in my figure.



I will help you with that. He's worth 0 to the spread.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
Boz
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:30:07 PM permalink
If you like the raptors you should probably bet now as the spread is +6 (at most /all vegas insider listed “ Vegas books”).
if you like the warriors wait until game day (due to waiting for key player injury confirmations )

Managed to cancel my early bet on the raptors @ 5.5 and get on again at +6, using the play I have mentioned in another thread.

I still plan on keeping *** my bet on the under, but going by the current prices of the books that I use as a “will the total change” guide it looks like it will be higher than the one that I took earlier in the betting .

***: if that happens, I will take my “free “ cash out and bet again on the under at the new total

Written from phone / spelling etc not checked
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 5th, 2019 at 12:37:03 AM permalink
Odds update:

If you like the raptors you should take the +5 to 5.5 *** available .

+5.5 available @ Peppermill , according to Vega insider.

If you like the warriors, I think there is a 75% that they will go to -4 , so you should probably wait and see

Written by phone, spelling not checked
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 5th, 2019 at 2:07:36 PM permalink
Roughly 2.5 hours ago, STATIONS*** had Warriors @ -4.0, and was available until about an hour and 10 minutes ago.

***: according to Vegas Insider website

Note: I live in Australia, and wasn't awake at the time, so I that is why I didn't update close to "real-time".
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 5th, 2019 at 2:31:02 PM permalink
I have the warriors at -1.5.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 5th, 2019 at 3:20:31 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I have the warriors at -1.5.



Where?

No one is currently showing that line.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 5th, 2019 at 4:22:59 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Where?

No one is currently showing that line.


I think WatchMeWin meant: that is what they think the "fair-spread"should be.

Also, still don't have any status update for K T. (going to work now, so may be "slow to no" updates from me)

I think there are plenty of sports books with the warriors @ -4, so I think you are "fairly safe" to wait til near game time to back the warriors.

So, back the raptors now, while you can still get +4.5, at some sports books.

Below is a repeat of the bets i had:

Total: U214 @ -110

Spread: Raptors @ +6.0*** @ -110

***: originally took +5.5, but did my "free-cancel and re-bet" thing that for whatever reason the book i use lets me do for NBA spreads and totals.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 5, 2019

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