ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 30th, 2019 at 5:38:41 PM permalink
For the first game I think the Raptors should be a 3 pt favorite, so I think they are still value*** @ -1 to -1.5 (current spread at most books at time of this post).

***: Earlier in the betting I got them +1.0 @ -110, and +5.5 @ +100( as the 1st part of a "48 minute" teaser^^^)

^^^: special teaser that pays you as a winner if the game ends as a "regulation tie".

Note: Personally, I hate betting against the Warriors, so I also had a small bet on the Warriors to win the 3rd Quarter @ -110

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Lastly, I think the spread will go to -2.0 before game time.
If you like the Raptors for this game, you should take the -1 or -1.5 now.
If you like the Warriors for this game, you should bet in the last few minutes and hope it changes to +2.0
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 31st, 2019 at 12:43:01 AM permalink
My early opinion for the 2nd game is Raptors should have a 60% to 66% chance of winning (2.5 to 4 pt favorite), so they look the early value @ -1.5 with most sport books I can bet with.

The Warriors loss in G1 was not a surprise, but if they had won it would have been just as "unsurprising"***.
They are my favorite team to back "live betting", as they can often make a come-back and win when down quite a bit at half-time (no come-back this time, though).

*** I am not hedging my opinion when I say this, since they are both extremely "good" teams when they are "100% fit and not rusty".
There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.

In summary, if the players from G1 all start for G2, then I think the Raptors should be 3.25 pt^^^ favorites.

^^^: No books offer this spread for basketball as far as I know, but this would be the fair spread in my opinion for G2.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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May 31st, 2019 at 7:05:56 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

*** I am not hedging my opinion when I say this, since they are both extremely "good" teams when they are "100% fit and not rusty".
There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.



Sure sounds like the ultimate hedge...lol Sounds like any way the game falls , you will be right. If Toronto or GS wins by double digits, you're right, If its a close game either team wins, you're right. Well played.

My money is on Toronto again. Everyone and their mother was on them yesterday. Easy win. People are looking for a bounce back with GS, but I see Toronto's defense and home court being the difference. Line is currently at 1.5 or 2.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
michael99000
michael99000
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May 31st, 2019 at 12:13:22 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.



Itís always good to include every possible outcome when making a prediction.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 31st, 2019 at 1:07:59 PM permalink
Spread should be go to at least 2.5, if you like Raptors bet now (otherwise wait, for Warriors bettors),

-1.5 is the best according to vegas insider, at PEPPERMILL
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 31st, 2019 at 1:09:26 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Itís always good to include every possible outcome when making a prediction.





I'm predicting Toronto will win unless the Warriors play really well and beat them

the total is set at 215 - it will definitely go over unless it's a low scoring game
𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵. 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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May 31st, 2019 at 1:14:11 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I'm predicting Toronto will win unless the Warriors play really well and beat them

the total is set at 215 - it will definitely go over unless it's a low scoring game



lol... sounds like one of my friends who is the MMQ King. Hindsight is always 20/20!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 1st, 2019 at 5:19:28 AM permalink
I predict that Finals Winner will be decided by about the middle of June or earlier (if the the players don't go on strike).

Lol, i deserve all these funny replies, and I will try to write better posts in the future, though I can't promise anything.

Update:

Here is my early estimate of what I think the "fair" spread for G3 should be, Warriors as 3.5 pt favorites (range 2.75 to 4.25)

The books will probably open G3 with the Warriors as 4pt or 4.5pt favorites, if KD is still out.
If that is the spread the sports books stick with, I will probably stay out of G3, because i like the difference to be at least 1.5 points between my estimate and the spread on offer.

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Update 2:

For the series the $16 for Raptors to win in 4 games looks the best value to me (Ev of ~ +30% in my opinion) , but I will probably only have a relatively small bet of $25 to $50 on this.
Note: I would probably bet bigger if I wasn't "scared" to bet against the Warriors, (lol, another "hedge statement", sorry about that).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 1, 2019
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdjRigondeaux
June 2nd, 2019 at 1:10:49 AM permalink
Steph Curry impersonator - got a belly laugh out of this one....................... 😄

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 2, 2019
𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵. 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 2nd, 2019 at 2:05:08 PM permalink
For game 2, I think the fair spread should now be -4^^^ for the Raptors. My prediction that the spread would go to to -2.5 is at least "true" at most online sports books. (i don't have access to US books***).

^^^: mainly because Anunoby (appendix) is probable for G2 (Edit about 310 PM Pac Time)

***: can you still get -1 for the Raptors at PEPPERMILL ? (because that is what it is according to vegas insider website)

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I am looking to bet up to $500 on the Over 213.5 @ +110 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof).

Update (about 326 PM Pac Time): Offer rescinded, because the average total moved from 212.5 to 213.5 at most books now ( at the time of the post I thought it was fair*^*, though).

*^*: I don't want to "screw anyone over", if they can get the same or a better deal elsewhere.

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Update of offer (About 330 PM Pac Time)

I want to bet up to $400 on the Over 213.5 @ +100 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?

"first in best dressed"



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2nd update of offer (about 435 PM Pac time)
I want to bet up to $400 on the Over 213 @ +100 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?

"first in best dressed" (Offer closes by 458 pm Pac time, so PM before then if you want a chance to take this offer )


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3rd&&& update of offer (about 448 PM Pact time)

I want to bet up to $500 on the Over 213 @ +110 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?

"first in best dressed" (Offer closes by 458 pm Pac time, so PM before then if you want a chance to take this offer


&&&: The retail total that I use as my "guide" changed quite dramatically, so that is why I decided to do this (hopefully final) update.

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It is now 458 PM, so all offers are rescinded.

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You can now get "pick em " odds at PEPPERMILL, according to Vegas insider, (was this right?)

William HIll, MGM Mirage and CAESARS/HARRAH'S, are best if you want to back Warriors (+2.5), according to Vegas insider
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 2, 2019

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