NBA Finals
May 30th, 2019 at 5:38:41 PM
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For the first game I think the Raptors should be a 3 pt favorite, so I think they are still value*** @ -1 to -1.5 (current spread at most books at time of this post).
***: Earlier in the betting I got them +1.0 @ -110, and +5.5 @ +100( as the 1st part of a "48 minute" teaser^^^)
^^^: special teaser that pays you as a winner if the game ends as a "regulation tie".
Note: Personally, I hate betting against the Warriors, so I also had a small bet on the Warriors to win the 3rd Quarter @ -110
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Lastly, I think the spread will go to -2.0 before game time.
If you like the Raptors for this game, you should take the -1 or -1.5 now.
If you like the Warriors for this game, you should bet in the last few minutes and hope it changes to +2.0
***: Earlier in the betting I got them +1.0 @ -110, and +5.5 @ +100( as the 1st part of a "48 minute" teaser^^^)
^^^: special teaser that pays you as a winner if the game ends as a "regulation tie".
Note: Personally, I hate betting against the Warriors, so I also had a small bet on the Warriors to win the 3rd Quarter @ -110
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Lastly, I think the spread will go to -2.0 before game time.
If you like the Raptors for this game, you should take the -1 or -1.5 now.
If you like the Warriors for this game, you should bet in the last few minutes and hope it changes to +2.0
May 31st, 2019 at 12:43:01 AM
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My early opinion for the 2nd game is Raptors should have a 60% to 66% chance of winning (2.5 to 4 pt favorite), so they look the early value @ -1.5 with most sport books I can bet with.
The Warriors loss in G1 was not a surprise, but if they had won it would have been just as "unsurprising"***.
They are my favorite team to back "live betting", as they can often make a come-back and win when down quite a bit at half-time (no come-back this time, though).
*** I am not hedging my opinion when I say this, since they are both extremely "good" teams when they are "100% fit and not rusty".
There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.
In summary, if the players from G1 all start for G2, then I think the Raptors should be 3.25 pt^^^ favorites.
^^^: No books offer this spread for basketball as far as I know, but this would be the fair spread in my opinion for G2.
The Warriors loss in G1 was not a surprise, but if they had won it would have been just as "unsurprising"***.
They are my favorite team to back "live betting", as they can often make a come-back and win when down quite a bit at half-time (no come-back this time, though).
*** I am not hedging my opinion when I say this, since they are both extremely "good" teams when they are "100% fit and not rusty".
There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.
In summary, if the players from G1 all start for G2, then I think the Raptors should be 3.25 pt^^^ favorites.
^^^: No books offer this spread for basketball as far as I know, but this would be the fair spread in my opinion for G2.
May 31st, 2019 at 7:05:56 AM
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Quote: ksdjdj*** I am not hedging my opinion when I say this, since they are both extremely "good" teams when they are "100% fit and not rusty".
There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.
Sure sounds like the ultimate hedge...lol Sounds like any way the game falls , you will be right. If Toronto or GS wins by double digits, you're right, If its a close game either team wins, you're right. Well played.
My money is on Toronto again. Everyone and their mother was on them yesterday. Easy win. People are looking for a bounce back with GS, but I see Toronto's defense and home court being the difference. Line is currently at 1.5 or 2.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
May 31st, 2019 at 12:13:22 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj
There could be another double digit win (by either team) for game 2, but in my opinion it will be a closer game.
It’s always good to include every possible outcome when making a prediction.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:07:59 PM
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Spread should be go to at least 2.5, if you like Raptors bet now (otherwise wait, for Warriors bettors),
-1.5 is the best according to vegas insider, at PEPPERMILL
-1.5 is the best according to vegas insider, at PEPPERMILL
May 31st, 2019 at 1:09:26 PM
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Quote: michael99000It’s always good to include every possible outcome when making a prediction.
I'm predicting Toronto will win unless the Warriors play really well and beat them
the total is set at 215 - it will definitely go over unless it's a low scoring game
Please don't feed the trolls
May 31st, 2019 at 1:14:11 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterI'm predicting Toronto will win unless the Warriors play really well and beat them
the total is set at 215 - it will definitely go over unless it's a low scoring game
lol... sounds like one of my friends who is the MMQ King. Hindsight is always 20/20!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
June 1st, 2019 at 5:19:28 AM
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I predict that Finals Winner will be decided by about the middle of June or earlier (if the the players don't go on strike).
Lol, i deserve all these funny replies, and I will try to write better posts in the future, though I can't promise anything.
Update:
Here is my early estimate of what I think the "fair" spread for G3 should be, Warriors as 3.5 pt favorites (range 2.75 to 4.25)
The books will probably open G3 with the Warriors as 4pt or 4.5pt favorites, if KD is still out.
If that is the spread the sports books stick with, I will probably stay out of G3, because i like the difference to be at least 1.5 points between my estimate and the spread on offer.
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Update 2:
For the series the $16 for Raptors to win in 4 games looks the best value to me (Ev of ~ +30% in my opinion) , but I will probably only have a relatively small bet of $25 to $50 on this.
Note: I would probably bet bigger if I wasn't "scared" to bet against the Warriors, (lol, another "hedge statement", sorry about that).
Lol, i deserve all these funny replies, and I will try to write better posts in the future, though I can't promise anything.
Update:
Here is my early estimate of what I think the "fair" spread for G3 should be, Warriors as 3.5 pt favorites (range 2.75 to 4.25)
The books will probably open G3 with the Warriors as 4pt or 4.5pt favorites, if KD is still out.
If that is the spread the sports books stick with, I will probably stay out of G3, because i like the difference to be at least 1.5 points between my estimate and the spread on offer.
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Update 2:
For the series the $16 for Raptors to win in 4 games looks the best value to me (Ev of ~ +30% in my opinion) , but I will probably only have a relatively small bet of $25 to $50 on this.
Note: I would probably bet bigger if I wasn't "scared" to bet against the Warriors, (lol, another "hedge statement", sorry about that).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 1, 2019
June 2nd, 2019 at 1:10:49 AM
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Steph Curry impersonator - got a belly laugh out of this one....................... 😄
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 2, 2019
Please don't feed the trolls
June 2nd, 2019 at 2:05:08 PM
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For game 2, I think the fair spread should now be -4^^^ for the Raptors. My prediction that the spread would go to to -2.5 is at least "true" at most online sports books. (i don't have access to US books***).
^^^: mainly because Anunoby (appendix) is probable for G2 (Edit about 310 PM Pac Time)
***: can you still get -1 for the Raptors at PEPPERMILL ? (because that is what it is according to vegas insider website)
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I am looking to bet up to $500 on the Over 213.5 @ +110 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof).
Update (about 326 PM Pac Time): Offer rescinded, because the average total moved from 212.5 to 213.5 at most books now ( at the time of the post I thought it was fair*^*, though).
*^*: I don't want to "screw anyone over", if they can get the same or a better deal elsewhere.
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Update of offer (About 330 PM Pac Time)
I want to bet up to $400 on the Over 213.5 @ +100 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?
"first in best dressed"
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2nd update of offer (about 435 PM Pac time)
I want to bet up to $400 on the Over 213 @ +100 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?
"first in best dressed" (Offer closes by 458 pm Pac time, so PM before then if you want a chance to take this offer )
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3rd&&& update of offer (about 448 PM Pact time)
I want to bet up to $500 on the Over 213 @ +110 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?
"first in best dressed" (Offer closes by 458 pm Pac time, so PM before then if you want a chance to take this offer
&&&: The retail total that I use as my "guide" changed quite dramatically, so that is why I decided to do this (hopefully final) update.
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It is now 458 PM, so all offers are rescinded.
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You can now get "pick em " odds at PEPPERMILL, according to Vegas insider, (was this right?)
William HIll, MGM Mirage and CAESARS/HARRAH'S, are best if you want to back Warriors (+2.5), according to Vegas insider
^^^: mainly because Anunoby (appendix) is probable for G2 (Edit about 310 PM Pac Time)
***: can you still get -1 for the Raptors at PEPPERMILL ? (because that is what it is according to vegas insider website)
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I am looking to bet up to $500 on the Over 213.5 @ +110 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof).
Update (about 326 PM Pac Time): Offer rescinded, because the average total moved from 212.5 to 213.5 at most books now ( at the time of the post I thought it was fair*^*, though).
*^*: I don't want to "screw anyone over", if they can get the same or a better deal elsewhere.
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Update of offer (About 330 PM Pac Time)
I want to bet up to $400 on the Over 213.5 @ +100 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?
"first in best dressed"
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2nd update of offer (about 435 PM Pac time)
I want to bet up to $400 on the Over 213 @ +100 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?
"first in best dressed" (Offer closes by 458 pm Pac time, so PM before then if you want a chance to take this offer )
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3rd&&& update of offer (about 448 PM Pact time)
I want to bet up to $500 on the Over 213 @ +110 for game 2, pm me if you want to take the bet (or part thereof), any takers?
"first in best dressed" (Offer closes by 458 pm Pac time, so PM before then if you want a chance to take this offer
&&&: The retail total that I use as my "guide" changed quite dramatically, so that is why I decided to do this (hopefully final) update.
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It is now 458 PM, so all offers are rescinded.
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You can now get "pick em " odds at PEPPERMILL, according to Vegas insider, (was this right?)
William HIll, MGM Mirage and CAESARS/HARRAH'S, are best if you want to back Warriors (+2.5), according to Vegas insider
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 2, 2019
June 2nd, 2019 at 9:19:54 PM
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Game 2 saw the Warriors do what they seem to do often, and make a come back and win after being 10-20 down (i think they were 12 behind in this game).
I am lucky that i had a partial cash out of my bet when the Raptors were up by 8.
My spread estimate for game 3 hasn't changed much (as I think the Raptors should be 3.25 point dogs now), so I had an early bet on the Raptors again at +5.5, bet 1320 to win 1200.
Also, the under*** for game 3 looks like it should be around 211-212, so I thought there was a small amount of value on the under for the total of 214, bet 880 to win 800 on the under.
***: took the under 215.5 for game two, but since I did a partial cashed out early in the first quarter, the bet went from a "lose $770 or win $700" into a "lose $0 or win $220".
Lastly, I had a small bet again on the Warriors, $150 to win $150 to win the third quarter, but that is something that anyone could pick with their eyes closed.
Results are one win and one loss (for the spread bets posted on this thread).
I will try to post when I think there will be a spread /total change, but I am working the next 3 days, so no promises.
I am lucky that i had a partial cash out of my bet when the Raptors were up by 8.
My spread estimate for game 3 hasn't changed much (as I think the Raptors should be 3.25 point dogs now), so I had an early bet on the Raptors again at +5.5, bet 1320 to win 1200.
Also, the under*** for game 3 looks like it should be around 211-212, so I thought there was a small amount of value on the under for the total of 214, bet 880 to win 800 on the under.
***: took the under 215.5 for game two, but since I did a partial cashed out early in the first quarter, the bet went from a "lose $770 or win $700" into a "lose $0 or win $220".
Lastly, I had a small bet again on the Warriors, $150 to win $150 to win the third quarter, but that is something that anyone could pick with their eyes closed.
Results are one win and one loss (for the spread bets posted on this thread).
I will try to post when I think there will be a spread /total change, but I am working the next 3 days, so no promises.
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:45:13 AM
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If you think OG Anunoby is worth 1.5 points to the spread, you should probably cease all sports betting immediately.
June 3rd, 2019 at 2:31:12 PM
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i thought he was worth about 0.5 to 1, so i used 0.75 in my figure.
June 3rd, 2019 at 3:54:04 PM
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Quote: ksdjdji thought he was worth about 0.5 to 1, so i used 0.75 in my figure.
I will help you with that. He's worth 0 to the spread.
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:30:07 PM
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If you like the raptors you should probably bet now as the spread is +6 (at most /all vegas insider listed “ Vegas books”).
if you like the warriors wait until game day (due to waiting for key player injury confirmations )
Managed to cancel my early bet on the raptors @ 5.5 and get on again at +6, using the play I have mentioned in another thread.
I still plan on keeping *** my bet on the under, but going by the current prices of the books that I use as a “will the total change” guide it looks like it will be higher than the one that I took earlier in the betting .
***: if that happens, I will take my “free “ cash out and bet again on the under at the new total
Written from phone / spelling etc not checked
if you like the warriors wait until game day (due to waiting for key player injury confirmations )
Managed to cancel my early bet on the raptors @ 5.5 and get on again at +6, using the play I have mentioned in another thread.
I still plan on keeping *** my bet on the under, but going by the current prices of the books that I use as a “will the total change” guide it looks like it will be higher than the one that I took earlier in the betting .
***: if that happens, I will take my “free “ cash out and bet again on the under at the new total
Written from phone / spelling etc not checked
June 5th, 2019 at 12:37:03 AM
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Odds update:
If you like the raptors you should take the +5 to 5.5 *** available .
+5.5 available @ Peppermill , according to Vega insider.
If you like the warriors, I think there is a 75% that they will go to -4 , so you should probably wait and see
Written by phone, spelling not checked
If you like the raptors you should take the +5 to 5.5 *** available .
+5.5 available @ Peppermill , according to Vega insider.
If you like the warriors, I think there is a 75% that they will go to -4 , so you should probably wait and see
Written by phone, spelling not checked
June 5th, 2019 at 2:07:36 PM
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Roughly 2.5 hours ago, STATIONS*** had Warriors @ -4.0, and was available until about an hour and 10 minutes ago.
***: according to Vegas Insider website
Note: I live in Australia, and wasn't awake at the time, so I that is why I didn't update close to "real-time".
***: according to Vegas Insider website
Note: I live in Australia, and wasn't awake at the time, so I that is why I didn't update close to "real-time".
June 5th, 2019 at 2:31:02 PM
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I have the warriors at -1.5.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
June 5th, 2019 at 3:20:31 PM
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Quote: WatchMeWinI have the warriors at -1.5.
Where?
No one is currently showing that line.
June 5th, 2019 at 4:22:59 PM
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Quote: BozWhere?
No one is currently showing that line.
I think WatchMeWin meant: that is what they think the "fair-spread"should be.
Also, still don't have any status update for K T. (going to work now, so may be "slow to no" updates from me)
I think there are plenty of sports books with the warriors @ -4, so I think you are "fairly safe" to wait til near game time to back the warriors.
So, back the raptors now, while you can still get +4.5, at some sports books.
Below is a repeat of the bets i had:
Total: U214 @ -110
Spread: Raptors @ +6.0*** @ -110
***: originally took +5.5, but did my "free-cancel and re-bet" thing that for whatever reason the book i use lets me do for NBA spreads and totals.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 5, 2019
June 5th, 2019 at 5:15:23 PM
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Update:
Warriors punters : take the -3 or wait til game time
Raptors punters : take the +3.5 /4***available (but you should have been on by now at the better spread, if you knew you wanted to back them )
***: @ Peppermill according to Vegas insider
Still don’t know if klay is in or out?
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Update 2(time out with about 730 left on the clock q1)
Backed the warriors “live” @ + 2.5and now can win 650 if raptors beat the spread and lose 820 if the warriors win by more than 6. “Hoping for a middle, happy with raptors ats”
Partiality Cashed out of the under when the live betting was 209.5
, so can win 320 or lose 0.
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Update 3 (half time)
Too bad i didn’t wait until later for my live bet on warriors (I could have gotten +4.5 at half-time and +6.5 when the raptors were 52-38!!!)
!!!: I think that was available when the raptors had their biggest lead of the 1st half (but I am not watching the game, so not 100% )
Looks like the total will be over 214, so I am glad I can only lose 0 on that bet now.
Sent by phone
Warriors punters : take the -3 or wait til game time
Raptors punters : take the +3.5 /4***available (but you should have been on by now at the better spread, if you knew you wanted to back them )
***: @ Peppermill according to Vegas insider
Still don’t know if klay is in or out?
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Update 2(time out with about 730 left on the clock q1)
Backed the warriors “live” @ + 2.5and now can win 650 if raptors beat the spread and lose 820 if the warriors win by more than 6. “Hoping for a middle, happy with raptors ats”
Partiality Cashed out of the under when the live betting was 209.5
, so can win 320 or lose 0.
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Update 3 (half time)
Too bad i didn’t wait until later for my live bet on warriors (I could have gotten +4.5 at half-time and +6.5 when the raptors were 52-38!!!)
!!!: I think that was available when the raptors had their biggest lead of the 1st half (but I am not watching the game, so not 100% )
Looks like the total will be over 214, so I am glad I can only lose 0 on that bet now.
Sent by phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 5, 2019
June 5th, 2019 at 7:58:35 PM
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G4: my Early estimated spread is + 2.5 raptors (based on an estimated range of +1.75 to +3.25)
this early estimate assumes klay is a 50/50 chance and k d is a 0-12.5% chance of playing.
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Update (about 2pm, Queensland, Australia time)
Took 1650 to win 1500 @ +5.5 on the raptors
I think the spread will move similar to g3, so warriors punters should wait and see and raptors punters should bet early.
Note: this “spread movement prediction “ is based on my chances of key players playing (k d high chance of not playing and klay being a “coin-flip” atm)
Sent by phone
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Update (about 550 am Pac time)
Official injury updates
Klay Thompson - Hamstring - Probable - 75% chance to play (official) and ~90% (based on historical data)
Kevin Durant - Calf - Questionable - 50% chance to play (official) and ~55% (based on historical data)
After this update, I will reduce my bet quite a bit or even "sit out"*** of this game.
***: Even if I decide to "cancel my bet" for this game, I will still try to post updates of which way I think the spread on offer will change (like I did for previous posts).
this early estimate assumes klay is a 50/50 chance and k d is a 0-12.5% chance of playing.
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Update (about 2pm, Queensland, Australia time)
Took 1650 to win 1500 @ +5.5 on the raptors
I think the spread will move similar to g3, so warriors punters should wait and see and raptors punters should bet early.
Note: this “spread movement prediction “ is based on my chances of key players playing (k d high chance of not playing and klay being a “coin-flip” atm)
Sent by phone
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Update (about 550 am Pac time)
Official injury updates
Klay Thompson - Hamstring - Probable - 75% chance to play (official) and ~90% (based on historical data)
Kevin Durant - Calf - Questionable - 50% chance to play (official) and ~55% (based on historical data)
After this update, I will reduce my bet quite a bit or even "sit out"*** of this game.
***: Even if I decide to "cancel my bet" for this game, I will still try to post updates of which way I think the spread on offer will change (like I did for previous posts).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2019
June 6th, 2019 at 12:19:52 PM
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Player update:
Klay Thompson - Hamstring - Active
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Update (1250 pm Pac Time)
Raptors punters should take the +5.5,
Warriors punters should wait.
6/6/19 1235 PM (Pac Time)- Kevin Durant - Calf - Out
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Update 2 (110 pm Pac time)
PEPPERMILL is still offering 5.5 according to vegas insider (most others are 5, and at least one is 4.5)
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Update 3 (127 pm Pac time)
5.5 is no longer on offer, 5 is now the best.
Still recommend Raptors punters to take the +5, if they haven't gotten on yet.
Warriors punters should wait
Also, the total looks like it will trend down, you can still get U216.5 at some books.
Over punters should wait and see , as i think the total will go to 216*** or less (95%*** chance, ).
***: changed from 215.5 and 85%, @ 147 pm (pac time)
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Update 4 (1105 pm Pac Time)
Most online books are +4.5, but there are still quite a few vegas books @ +5.0 (vegas insider) for the Raptors (so Raptors punters should back them now, if they haven't already)
Warriors punters should still hold off, and take a punt that the closing line will be the same or better than -4.5.
Also, I don't have anything to update of what I think will happen to the total, at this time.
Note:, 5 hours from now will probably be my last update (as I will be away from the internet/ my computer for 18-20 hours after that).
Klay Thompson - Hamstring - Active
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Update (1250 pm Pac Time)
Raptors punters should take the +5.5,
Warriors punters should wait.
6/6/19 1235 PM (Pac Time)- Kevin Durant - Calf - Out
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Update 2 (110 pm Pac time)
PEPPERMILL is still offering 5.5 according to vegas insider (most others are 5, and at least one is 4.5)
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Update 3 (127 pm Pac time)
5.5 is no longer on offer, 5 is now the best.
Still recommend Raptors punters to take the +5, if they haven't gotten on yet.
Warriors punters should wait
Also, the total looks like it will trend down, you can still get U216.5 at some books.
Over punters should wait and see , as i think the total will go to 216*** or less (95%*** chance, ).
***: changed from 215.5 and 85%, @ 147 pm (pac time)
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Update 4 (1105 pm Pac Time)
Most online books are +4.5, but there are still quite a few vegas books @ +5.0 (vegas insider) for the Raptors (so Raptors punters should back them now, if they haven't already)
Warriors punters should still hold off, and take a punt that the closing line will be the same or better than -4.5.
Also, I don't have anything to update of what I think will happen to the total, at this time.
Note:, 5 hours from now will probably be my last update (as I will be away from the internet/ my computer for 18-20 hours after that).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2019
June 6th, 2019 at 1:33:56 PM
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Kyle Lowry crashes into fans on the sideline
Nearby, Warriors investor Mark Stevens, that Kyle Lowry never touched, gave the NBA player a shove
WTF
You never ever put your hands on somebody that never touched you and give them a shove
How would Mark Stevens like it if Kyle Lowry came into his office and gave him a shove. Kyle would be arrested.
"A team representative must be held to the highest possible standard, and the conduct of Golden State Warriors investor Mark Stevens last night was beyond unacceptable and has no place in our league," the league said in a statement. "As the review of this matter continues, Mr. Stevens will not be permitted to attend NBA games."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26912173/nba-bans-warriors-investor-shoving-lowry
Nearby, Warriors investor Mark Stevens, that Kyle Lowry never touched, gave the NBA player a shove
WTF
You never ever put your hands on somebody that never touched you and give them a shove
How would Mark Stevens like it if Kyle Lowry came into his office and gave him a shove. Kyle would be arrested.
"A team representative must be held to the highest possible standard, and the conduct of Golden State Warriors investor Mark Stevens last night was beyond unacceptable and has no place in our league," the league said in a statement. "As the review of this matter continues, Mr. Stevens will not be permitted to attend NBA games."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26912173/nba-bans-warriors-investor-shoving-lowry
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 6th, 2019 at 1:55:37 PM
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The awesome national anthem from last nights game
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 6th, 2019 at 1:56:18 PM
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Quote: terapinedKyle Lowry crashes into fans on the sideline
Nearby, Warriors investor Mark Stevens, that Kyle Lowry never touched, gave the NBA player a shove
WTF
You never ever put your hands on somebody that never touched you and give them a shove
How would Mark Stevens like it if Kyle Lowry came into his office and gave him a shove. Kyle would be arrested.
"A team representative must be held to the highest possible standard, and the conduct of Golden State Warriors investor Mark Stevens last night was beyond unacceptable and has no place in our league," the league said in a statement. "As the review of this matter continues, Mr. Stevens will not be permitted to attend NBA games."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26912173/nba-bans-warriors-investor-shoving-lowry
Obviously, the laws don't apply to the rich. But it arguably assault (I guess so, anyway. lawyers?). And, against someone who relies on his body for a lucrative livelihood. If you stiff arm some guy in the shoulder as hard as you can, you could certainly injure them.
It would be fun watching the criminal justice system going into pretzel mode to not punish a rich guy who assaulted someone on national TV.
Guessing that this doughy middle-aged tough guy would never in 400,000,000 years put his hands on Kyle Lowry in another situation. Taking a cheap shot, knowing he is protected and lives a life without consequences.
June 6th, 2019 at 3:05:10 PM
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Quote: terapinedThe awesome national anthem from last nights game
It is a hard song to sing well, so the "safe" choice of not singing it was probably the right one.
Anyway, I liked it.
June 6th, 2019 at 5:56:49 PM
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They fined Stevens the shover $500,000 and banned him from NBA games for 1 year.
Now I'm wondering if the owners will meet and demand he sell his position in the team. That was pretty steep.
Now I'm wondering if the owners will meet and demand he sell his position in the team. That was pretty steep.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
June 6th, 2019 at 6:50:30 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsThey fined Stevens the shover $500,000 and banned him from NBA games for 1 year.
Now I'm wondering if the owners will meet and demand he sell his position in the team. That was pretty steep.
If he bought his share more than 5 or 6 years ago , I’d bet he’s seen a nice profit. Can’t imagine any NBA teams value has increased as much as that one. Especially given the pending move to San Fran.
June 7th, 2019 at 2:24:42 AM
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I cant help but laugh at this shoving incident. If it was a black fan pushing a black player the player wouldnt have gotten that mad or cried wolf to the NBA to ban him and neither would all the black analysts on TV as well as former black NBA players be up in arms about this incident. The black community loves to pull the race card every chance they get, well guess what it's time to throw it right back at them because what we have here is nothing but hypocrisy.
Lets face it, black people are very insecure evem to thos day and still live with the chip on their shoulder since the slavery days of being seen as inferior to white people, especially white rich priveleged people. So when something as simple as this little shove happens their insecurity really shows. Kyle Lowry probably felt so 'disrespected' after being shoved by a white rich priveleged man and that's the real issue here. It really has nothing to do with him being 'shoved'.
Damn im so ahead of everything. I have a gift of just reading everyone and everything. God help the poker community if i ever play poker in my life. I can basically disect what a person is thinking at any given time based on how they respond, act, body language, past information, as well as numerous other variables that also allow me to filter out reverse tells.
Lets face it, black people are very insecure evem to thos day and still live with the chip on their shoulder since the slavery days of being seen as inferior to white people, especially white rich priveleged people. So when something as simple as this little shove happens their insecurity really shows. Kyle Lowry probably felt so 'disrespected' after being shoved by a white rich priveleged man and that's the real issue here. It really has nothing to do with him being 'shoved'.
Damn im so ahead of everything. I have a gift of just reading everyone and everything. God help the poker community if i ever play poker in my life. I can basically disect what a person is thinking at any given time based on how they respond, act, body language, past information, as well as numerous other variables that also allow me to filter out reverse tells.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
June 7th, 2019 at 3:37:06 AM
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Quote: ksdjdj...Most online books are +4.5, but there are still quite a few vegas books @ +5.0 (vegas insider) for the Raptors (so Raptors punters should back them now, if they haven't already)
Warriors punters should still hold off, and take a punt that the closing line will be the same or better than -4.5.....
...Note:, 5 hours from now will probably be my last update (as I will be away from the internet/ my computer for 18-20 hours after that)....
There will be no new updates by me until after this game.
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I saw "the Lowry incident" on youtube and to me it wasn't much of a shove ( I think the video i saw was slowed down a bit though).
IMO: The guy should have just been banned for the rest of the finals, "forced" to make a public apology to Lowry, the NBA and the fans, pay close to whatever the minimum fine is for this sort of "minor assault", and make a 10k-20k donation to a charity of the NBA's or Lowry's choosing (if Lowry was not injured from the incident***).
***: I am assuming that he didn't direct any "hate speech" against Lowry during the incident, right?
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 7, 2019
June 7th, 2019 at 5:04:22 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjThere will be no new updates by me until after this game.
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I saw "the Lowry incident" on youtube and to me it wasn't much of a shove ( I think the video i saw was slowed down a bit though).
IMO: The guy should have just been banned for the rest of the finals, "forced" to make a public apology to Lowry, the NBA and the fans, pay close to whatever the minimum fine is for this sort of "minor assault", and make a 10k-20k donation to a charity of the NBA's or Lowry's choosing (if Lowry was not injured from the incident***).
***: I am assuming that he didn't direct any "hate speech" against Lowry during the incident, right?
There was something said to Lowry with the shove that was offensive but I don't know what it was. So it's hard to say ZK's racism rant was totally ridiculous. But based on the shove alone, ZK's rant was totally ridiculous.
They were playing a hard, physical game, with heavy audience involvement. Lowry hard-fouled a couple times himself. The clown owner let himself get personally involved. He would have shoved any Raptor, regardless of color, who had come within reach lime that.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
June 7th, 2019 at 5:17:28 AM
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Quote: ksdjdj***: I am assuming that he didn't direct any "hate speech" against Lowry during the incident, right?
Nope
He was cursing at Lowry
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 7th, 2019 at 5:18:41 AM
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Quote: ZenKinGI cant help but laugh at this shoving incident. If it was a black fan pushing a black player the player wouldnt have gotten that mad or cried wolf to the NBA to ban him and neither would all the black analysts on TV as well as former black NBA players be up in arms about this incident. The black community loves to pull the race card every chance they get, well guess what it's time to throw it right back at them because what we have here is nothing but hypocrisy.
Lets face it, black people are very insecure evem to thos day and still live with the chip on their shoulder since the slavery days of being seen as inferior to white people, especially white rich priveleged people. So when something as simple as this little shove happens their insecurity really shows. Kyle Lowry probably felt so 'disrespected' after being shoved by a white rich priveleged man and that's the real issue here. It really has nothing to do with him being 'shoved'.
Damn im so ahead of everything. I have a gift of just reading everyone and everything. God help the poker community if i ever play poker in my life. I can basically disect what a person is thinking at any given time based on how they respond, act, body language, past information, as well as numerous other variables that also allow me to filter out reverse tells.
wow
Pretty racist rant
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 7th, 2019 at 6:09:51 AM
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Quote: ZenKinGDamn im so ahead of everything. I have a gift of just reading everyone and everything. God help the poker community if i ever play poker in my life. I can basically disect what a person is thinking at any given time based on how they respond, act, body language, past information, as well as numerous other variables that also allow me to filter out reverse tells.
...... newsflash, everyone on this forum has the same view of themselves. You should have already known that.... but you did. ha
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
June 7th, 2019 at 2:08:01 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsThere was something said to Lowry with the shove that was offensive but I don't know what it was. So it's hard to say ZK's racism rant was totally ridiculous. But based on the shove alone, ZK's rant was totally ridiculous.
They were playing a hard, physical game, with heavy audience involvement. Lowry hard-fouled a couple times himself. The clown owner let himself get personally involved. He would have shoved any Raptor, regardless of color, who had come within reach lime that.
You misread my post which seems to happen every single time on these forums. I was talking about KYLE LOWRY not the owner. KYLE LOWRY, black nba players, and the whole black community are the ones that feels insecure about white people who shove them or think theyre 'above' them. You've even seen it with Russell Westbrook with Utah fans. You see it with LeBron always crying about racism about owners etc. Stephen A smith the analyst etc etc.
If it was a black fan who did that to lowry he wouldnt he even care or at least not as much as he's making it out to be. That shove probably made Lowry feel 'disrespected' and seen as 'inferior' to the white rich priveleged man. How could you have possible misunderstood my post and then call it ridiculous?
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
June 7th, 2019 at 2:12:00 PM
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Quote: ZenKinGthe whole black community are the ones that feels insecure about white people who shove them
The nerve of those black people!!
June 7th, 2019 at 2:24:10 PM
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Quote: michael99000The nerve of those black people!!
There IS a certain thing as 'white privelege' in this country even to this day so i understand where their insecurity and bitterness comes from but they never do themselves any favors either. They need to come together as a race and rise above. They need to get into high execuitve level positions that society respects. Invent something for society thats never been seen before or create a breakthrough in science. Become a top level respected doctor or lawyer that performs life saving surgeries and wins high profile cases. Become a high standard in society and organically grow as a race and all this insecurity naturally goes out the window.
Theyll get more 'respect' from society as a whole such as from cops and wont be profiled as easily. Most of the cop incidents against black people are also misleading. The black people do get profiled but then their insecurity theyre being railroaded they fire back with attitudes or running away, not knowing their rights, etc and cause the cops to take action. Most of them also all have warrants or some type of criminal history but that doesnt stop them from them talking about black lives matter or Police Brutality crap. They need to stop crying and being insecure and do something in society other than being a professional athlete or an entertainer.
Thank me later.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Jun 7, 2019
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
June 7th, 2019 at 2:50:08 PM
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Yeah, ZK.
Yeah, I'm sure if a black fan attacked a white athlete or performer and told them to eff off, nobody would even notice.
I bet if Lawry had gone into the stands and assaulted a white fan who had done absolutely nothing to him, we'd already have forgotten it.
The only reason you can't go to sporting events and assault the players is that someone might pull the race card. Other than that, it's not really a big deal.
I wish I was born in the 1700s when you could just go around attacking and insulting people at random and nobody minded, as the founding fathers intended.
Personally, I hate these fake, forced, public apologies. If the guy regrets what he did, that's good. If he sincerely wants to express his regret, that's fine. It's not that relevant to what happened.
The guy crossed a line that cannot be crossed.
In that sense, it's similar to Pete Rose and what people don't get about that case. It's not that these guys are better or worse than someone who drives drunk or beats their wives. It's that the sports, as institutions, cannot allow certain things to occur.
You can't allow players/managers to have betting action on the games they are playing.
You can't allow fans to attack players. And you really, really can't tolerate it from within your own organization.
Yeah, I'm sure if a black fan attacked a white athlete or performer and told them to eff off, nobody would even notice.
I bet if Lawry had gone into the stands and assaulted a white fan who had done absolutely nothing to him, we'd already have forgotten it.
The only reason you can't go to sporting events and assault the players is that someone might pull the race card. Other than that, it's not really a big deal.
I wish I was born in the 1700s when you could just go around attacking and insulting people at random and nobody minded, as the founding fathers intended.
Quote: ksdjdj, "forced" to make a public apology to Lowry, the NBA and the fans
Personally, I hate these fake, forced, public apologies. If the guy regrets what he did, that's good. If he sincerely wants to express his regret, that's fine. It's not that relevant to what happened.
The guy crossed a line that cannot be crossed.
In that sense, it's similar to Pete Rose and what people don't get about that case. It's not that these guys are better or worse than someone who drives drunk or beats their wives. It's that the sports, as institutions, cannot allow certain things to occur.
You can't allow players/managers to have betting action on the games they are playing.
You can't allow fans to attack players. And you really, really can't tolerate it from within your own organization.
June 7th, 2019 at 3:06:19 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxYeah, ZK.
Yeah, I'm sure if a black fan attacked a white athlete or performer and told them to eff off, nobody would even notice.
I bet if Lawry had gone into the stands and assaulted a white fan who had done absolutely nothing to him, we'd already have forgotten it.
The only reason you can't go to sporting events and assault the players is that someone might pull the race card. Other than that, it's not really a big deal.
I wish I was born in the 1700s when you could just go around attacking and insulting people at random and nobody minded, as the founding fathers intended.
Personally, I hate these fake, forced, public apologies. If the guy regrets what he did, that's good. If he sincerely wants to express his regret, that's fine. It's not that relevant to what happened.
The guy crossed a line that cannot be crossed.
In that sense, it's similar to Pete Rose and what people don't get about that case. It's not that these guys are better or worse than someone who drives drunk or beats their wives. It's that the sports, as institutions, cannot allow certain things to occur.
You can't allow players/managers to have betting action on the games they are playing.
You can't allow fans to attack players. And you really, really can't tolerate it from within your own organization.
Cant tell if youre being sarcastic. If you are, then you also misread my posts and are talking about different scenarios i didnt even mention. The whole point is if the fan were black THIS would be a NON-ISSUE. If a black fan did that little shove to lowry, lowry wouldve never reacted the way he did or cry to the nba to get him banned lifetime. If the fan in Utah was black talking to westbrook he wouldnt have reacted the way he did either.
The whole black community is insecure and still feel inferior to white people as well as still disrespected, thats why they react the way they do. Do you ever see white people being offended if a black guy calls him a cracker or whatever racial slur to diminutize them? But as soon as a white guy calls a black person the N word, the black people react strongly and angrily and cry racism. Thats all a sign of insecurity. Black people need to rise abjove it and do what i said originally to overcome this.
Damn im so smart.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
June 7th, 2019 at 3:17:00 PM
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Quote: ZenKinG
Damn im so smart.
GOAT quote😀
June 7th, 2019 at 3:46:52 PM
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People, including me, and some black players, think Drake, who is black, is going way over the line, just by acting like a clown and inserting himself into games that have nothing to do with him. I heard that the NBA had to tell him to back off.
I'm reasonably sure that if Drake actually assaulted Steph Curry, it would be a big deal.
If he assaulted Green, RIP buddy.
I'm reasonably sure that if Drake actually assaulted Steph Curry, it would be a big deal.
If he assaulted Green, RIP buddy.
June 7th, 2019 at 4:33:42 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxPeople, including me, and some black players, think Drake, who is black, is going way over the line, just by acting like a clown and inserting himself into games that have nothing to do with him. I heard that the NBA had to tell him to back off.
I'm reasonably sure that if Drake actually assaulted Steph Curry, it would be a big deal.
If he assaulted Green, RIP buddy.
But what if Spike Lee attacked Reggie Miller?
In all seriousness, we kind of saw what is being argued about here about 15 years ago at the Malice at the Palace. In the fracas Ron Artest went after a white fan like 7 to 10 rows up in the stands who had absolutely zero to do with what actually happened. Artest got a year suspension, I personally think he should have been thrown out of the league
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
June 7th, 2019 at 4:58:50 PM
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Quote: Gabes22But what if Spike Lee attacked Reggie Miller?
In all seriousness, we kind of saw what is being argued about here about 15 years ago at the Malice at the Palace. In the fracas Ron Artest went after a white fan like 7 to 10 rows up in the stands who had absolutely zero to do with what actually happened. Artest got a year suspension, I personally think he should have been thrown out of the league
Yeah. Same thing, in that, you just cannot have violence occurring between players and fans. And it doesn't matter what the races are.
I think Artest was saved by the fact that someone did launch a beer (some drink, anyway) straight into his face and he attacked the wrong guy. If he had just decided to attack unprovoked, I think he'd have gotten a lifetime ban.
Artest's penalty was more severe than what the Warriors investor got. A year of NBA salary is a lot more thank 500k, and probably a higher portion of his net worth. But, the level of violence was also higher.
I'm sure the fan also got a juicy civil settlement.
June 7th, 2019 at 6:03:36 PM
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Quote: ZenKinGYou misread my post which seems to happen every single time on these forums. I was talking about KYLE LOWRY not the owner. KYLE LOWRY, black nba players, and the whole black community are the ones that feels insecure about white people who shove them or think theyre 'above' them. You've even seen it with Russell Westbrook with Utah fans. You see it with LeBron always crying about racism about owners etc. Stephen A smith the analyst etc etc.
If it was a black fan who did that to lowry he wouldnt he even care or at least not as much as he's making it out to be. That shove probably made Lowry feel 'disrespected' and seen as 'inferior' to the white rich priveleged man. How could you have possible misunderstood my post and then call it ridiculous?
I absolutely understood your post. It was ridiculous. It is beyond acceptable for a minority owner of the GSW to have shoved and cursed a player who fell into the crowd. It had NOTHING to do with who was black and who was white. Lowry had every right to be offended - even if it was a Joe Sixpack.
People who sit courtside for several rows back, including photographers and those standing under the goals, are accepting the almost inevitable crashing body at least once in a game. More like a dozen if you include the ones right under the basket.
When a player DOES come flying in, he's a million dollar property trying to earn his keep with ball hustle, not an annoyance to be shoved and cursed because he fell out of bounds into people less than his body length from the boundary line. Hell, lots of people are THRILLED to have a great story about LeBron or whoever falling on them.
Not EVERYTHING IS about race. That's the only part you got right. The GSW organization is completely embarrassed by their co-owner's behavior, and have made several apologies the last couple of days. If it was just Lowry whining, they could have ignored it.
Likewise, the NBA. I think they went too hard, but they wanted to set a higher standard for their owners. I don't think Joe Sixpack gets the 500k fine and 1 yr ban, but I bet he gets ejected and gone for the season at least.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
June 8th, 2019 at 5:02:23 AM
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Had a good bet on the Raptors 1100 to win 1000 @ the spread (too bad I cancelled some of my original bet of $1650).
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For the game on 06/10, I think the Raptors should be about a 2.8 to 4.8 point favorites (using -3.8 as the average).
If you are a Raptors punter*** you should take the -3.5 available atm.
If you are a Warriors punter*** you should wait.
***: IMO there is a 75% to 85% chance that the Raptors will go to -4.
I am not betting big on this game at this time, but I may have a small bet on the Warriors if they get around +4.5 to +5 (this would be a "just for fun" bet of $110 or less).
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Update (about 242 pm Pac Time): 6/8/19 ~10:20 AM Kevin Durant - Calf - Questionable
I decided to have my $100 "Even odds" on the warriors @ +3.0 instead of waiting, because i can always do a "free cancel" closer to game time and bet again.
With K D "upgraded" to questionable, i think the +3 to +3.5, is now a "neutral to good bet" for the Warriors.
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For the game on 06/10, I think the Raptors should be about a 2.8 to 4.8 point favorites (using -3.8 as the average).
If you are a Raptors punter*** you should take the -3.5 available atm.
If you are a Warriors punter*** you should wait.
***: IMO there is a 75% to 85% chance that the Raptors will go to -4.
I am not betting big on this game at this time, but I may have a small bet on the Warriors if they get around +4.5 to +5 (this would be a "just for fun" bet of $110 or less).
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Update (about 242 pm Pac Time): 6/8/19 ~10:20 AM Kevin Durant - Calf - Questionable
I decided to have my $100 "Even odds" on the warriors @ +3.0 instead of waiting, because i can always do a "free cancel" closer to game time and bet again.
With K D "upgraded" to questionable, i think the +3 to +3.5, is now a "neutral to good bet" for the Warriors.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 8, 2019
June 9th, 2019 at 2:28:09 PM
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Update:
K D is still questionable, he has a 50% "official chance" of playing ( it is probably closer to a 55% to 60% "real chance" that he will play).
According to Vegas Insider:
. PEPPERMILL has Warriors +2.5, and
. WESTGATE SUPERBOOK has Raptors -1.5,
. The average line is Raptors @ -2, with the online and Vegas books
Warriors punters should bet +2 / +2.5 now, and Raptors punters should wait, as I think the average line will got to -1.5 .
K D is still questionable, he has a 50% "official chance" of playing ( it is probably closer to a 55% to 60% "real chance" that he will play).
According to Vegas Insider:
. PEPPERMILL has Warriors +2.5, and
. WESTGATE SUPERBOOK has Raptors -1.5,
. The average line is Raptors @ -2, with the online and Vegas books
Warriors punters should bet +2 / +2.5 now, and Raptors punters should wait, as I think the average line will got to -1.5 .
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 9, 2019
June 9th, 2019 at 5:32:48 PM
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I think Klay Thompson is more of a factor than Kevin Durant. I would be more concerned if Clay is not 100%.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
June 9th, 2019 at 6:30:44 PM
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Quote: WatchMeWinI think Klay Thompson is more of a factor than Kevin Durant. I would be more concerned if Clay is not 100%.
Overall, I do as well.
But I think the K D factor will be more important early in the game for the way it may split the defense with more "man coverage" and less "double teaming" on other key players (a possible scenario, if he plays)
I don't know how 4 to 5 weeks of not playing will factor in his game, but health/injury-wise he probably will be less than 90% even if he does play (just a guess, as I don't how long a "strained calf" takes to completely heal).
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Line Update:
Warriors +2*** and Raptors -1.5 are the only lines I can see on Vegas Insider (with the most off-shore books @ 1.5, and about 2/3 of the Vegas books @ +2.0)
***: +2.5 @ PEPPERMILL is no longer available.
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Update (2am Pac time):
I will be asleep 2-3 hours from now, and awake 10 or 11 hours from now, so I won't be able to update my line predictions and/ or estimates between those times.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 10, 2019
June 10th, 2019 at 12:40:13 PM
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Line Update:
~11:51 am Kevin Durant - Calf - Active
You can get +1.5 Warriors*** and +1 for the Raptors^^^ (Vegas Insider)
***: Currently available @ TREASURE ISLAND and PEPPERMILL
^^^: Currently available @ WESTGATE SUPERBOOK and CIRCA
if you are a Warriors punter, bet now, and if you are a Raptors punter wait, as i think the average line will go to +1 or more by game time.
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Update (~1258 pm pac time)
Line has moved to +1 or lower for Warriors @ all books except TREASURE ISLAND (which still has +1.5 available , according to Vegas Insider).
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Update (~114 pm pac time)
The best you can get for the Warriors is +1 now, and +1.5 @ CIRCA for Raptors.
~11:51 am Kevin Durant - Calf - Active
You can get +1.5 Warriors*** and +1 for the Raptors^^^ (Vegas Insider)
***: Currently available @ TREASURE ISLAND and PEPPERMILL
^^^: Currently available @ WESTGATE SUPERBOOK and CIRCA
if you are a Warriors punter, bet now, and if you are a Raptors punter wait, as i think the average line will go to +1 or more by game time.
----------------
Update (~1258 pm pac time)
Line has moved to +1 or lower for Warriors @ all books except TREASURE ISLAND (which still has +1.5 available , according to Vegas Insider).
----------------
Update (~114 pm pac time)
The best you can get for the Warriors is +1 now, and +1.5 @ CIRCA for Raptors.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 10, 2019
