lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 8th, 2019 at 2:48:47 AM permalink
Hidden Scroll's splits (all of them) were faster in his maiden race by a lot when he got loose on the lead - he did a mile in 134.82 in his maiden race and 136.84 in the stakes

it looked to me like he didn't like the longer distance and the higher quality horses breathing down his neck

if he can't hold his speed for 8.5 how is he going to hold his speed for 10 furlongs?

I highly doubt he's the real deal

I could be wrong. it wouldn't be the first time
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 8, 2019
𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵. 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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March 8th, 2019 at 4:00:41 AM permalink
It’s hard to compare times of a one turn and two turn race.

I’ll take the middle ground.

He’s a good horse, not going to win the Derby.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 8th, 2019 at 12:41:58 PM permalink
RE: Youth & Scroll

All the "neck breathing" driving the ludicrous two-turn 45-ish & 1:10-sumpin' FoY pace was done by a 132 to 1 shot (how drunk was somebody to bet both their dollars on him?) that after doing his scalded dog imitation allegedly eventually crossed the line sometime that same day, officially finishing 11th out of 11 by over 33 lengths (but who's counting?) at the wire. Sent out by the fabulous Mr. Jaime Mejia, who as I may have mentioned a time or two before this event has displayed a distinctly finite range of training skills that tend to wind them up like a meth tweaker escaping a burning dumpster & then sees them stay on past the half mile pole to win about as often as 10 competently handled horses all jump into the infield together to chase a seagull. So I think it would be unwise to draw definitive conclusions in either direction about those clearly benefiting or compromised by the extremely aberrant race shape that was created. I'd still consider H.Scroll in the category of "could be any kind." That a good thing to say about an adolescent colt. And while a number of racing writers have been calling it a strong performance under the circumstances, and I mostly agree with that, I'm not inclined to either downgrade or upgrade a very tentative estimate of his possible distance talent from that, and though I still see him as live for this, because of the tyranny of the calendar he's down to only one pull of the lever to both learn his job and qualify for the gate draw in his only remaining shot.

RE: Next up

The three Derby "prep" races that will be run tomorrow are the Gotham, the Jeff Ruby, and the Tampa Bay Derby. I think the TAM event has clearly drawn by far the deepest strongest field of these. And it is the also the designated "Race of the Day/Week" for racing fleas wanting to scarf up free PP downloads by both DRF & EQB, as well as through following the entries some of the usual suspects (both Casse & Pletcher @ TAM Race #11) for the BRIS format PP product.

With the uncertain status of Santa Anita's racing schedule, including any eventual rescheduling of the date and possibly also location (possibly Los Alamitos) of the San Felipe that was to be run today, it's likely we'll be seeing some of the top tier 3y/o California stock shipping in to Oaklawn for the Rebel next week. The timing of tomorrow's revised OP entry deadline for their March 16th event works reasonably well for those who were potential classic race contenders that were being brought along in the prep series on the SoCal calendar that's designed to be a path through the April 6th SA Derby. Oaklawn Park management has even floated the possibility of running the Rebel in two heats next weekend if needed. I don't think it'll be needed; the very specific sub-segment of the Cali horse colony checking the whole list of boxes of: being in the age-restricted class but peak-form race-ready, and likely stakes caliber, for classic distance routing, on dirt, that's also suddenly needing to find a spot right now for the middle-distance middle-prep before the bigger prep, isn't that large a group and they won't all ship.

With Pool 3 open now the wagering effect of these extra balls that are up in the air on the west coast will probably be.... I have no idea.

In addition to the elimination of Super Steed already mentioned above, anyone looking at fixed price sportsbook futures should know that Global Campaign is also headed to the farm for a break in his training and is definitely out. And Gray Attempt is declared out of the Rebel, with his trainer saying he has "a minor setback" of an undisclosed nature, but "can still make the Arkansas Derby." In my DrawingDead Trainerspeak ->-> Horseplayer Translation App [patent pending] that means he's effectively 100% out (of being taken seriously) as far as I'm concerned. And if he does show up in the AR Derby in April I hope the check writing owners & their whole posse of family & friends all make sure to get all their partying well & truly done by thoroughly enjoying the pre-race festivities from their VIP box seat, until the starting gate opens.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 8th, 2019 at 6:41:26 PM permalink
Gotham:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Gotham19.pdf
I kinda like Haikal in this spot (and not necessarily for the KD). Lots of pacemakers and front runners in this one. Haikal at least has shown he likes the track and can run on from off the pace. He could be outclassed a little, but his "closing" style pps really stand out in this event.
TB Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/TampaBayDerby19.pdf
Only the winner (Well Defined) returns from the local prep (SF Davis) to run in this one. No real opinion on this event, I just look forward to watching Tacitus return to the track.
J Ruby:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/JeffRubySteaks19.pdf
----------

In other news, no San Felipe @ Santa Anita this year. The Rebel @ Oaklawn might swell into 2 races with split $ and split KD points (as DD mentioned). GLTA
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 9th, 2019 at 12:17:30 AM permalink
I haven't followed the dirt filly division much and almost forgot the parimutual futures pool for the fillies is also taking place this weekend. Of course that would be for wagering on the winner (or the exacta) of the race at Churchill Downs in May currently known as the Kentucky Oaks, but probably soon to be renamed the FinsRule Retirement Fund. Live odds for the Oaks futures:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/oaks-pool

The Honeybee Stakes competitors who are also individual wagering interests in the Oaks future wager pool, with pool program no. & their current pool odds for the Oaks are: #13 Marathon Queen (52-1); #15 Motion Emotion (13-1); and #18 Power Gal (57-1). And having three of them in the gate & not heavily favored at Oaklawn tomorrow probably can be taken to mean it is a real Grade 3.
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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March 9th, 2019 at 7:00:23 AM permalink
I like how they call it the Jeff Ruby "Steaks".

I think I may place a wager on Mind Control if I get out to Lone Star Park today.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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March 9th, 2019 at 7:33:44 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I haven't followed the dirt filly division much and almost forgot the parimutual futures pool for the fillies is also taking place this weekend. Of course that would be for wagering on the winner (or the exacta) of the race at Churchill Downs in May currently known as the Kentucky Oaks, but probably soon to be renamed the FinsRule Retirement Fund. Live odds for the Oaks futures:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/oaks-pool

The Honeybee Stakes competitors who are also individual wagering interests in the Oaks future wager pool, with pool program no. & their current pool odds for the Oaks are: #13 Marathon Queen (52-1); #15 Motion Emotion (13-1); and #18 Power Gal (57-1). And having three of them in the gate & not heavily favored at Oaklawn tomorrow probably can be taken to mean it is a real Grade 3.



This looks like it could be a fiercely competitive race. I really hope Raintree has enough gas in the tank to go this distance. Rooting for you, Fins! If Bloomberg hadn’t closed all the convenient OTBs, I would wager some money on her just to keep a rooting interest in her for ya.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 9th, 2019 at 12:46:56 PM permalink
I have nothing cooking in these dirt track middle distance Derby qualifying events today. So sincere good luck with all y'all wagers on these, since your winnings won't involve a single dollar that was ever mine.

At Aqueduct I see six of the eight likely to either come out breathing fire demanding the lead or else pressing that pace. Which occasionally means that some diminutive colorfully attired fellows sitting in the jock's room each silently decides they picture it that way too, and so when the gate opens six guys spend about a minute-thirty sleep-running on the track practically bowing to each other: “...after you Jose...oh no after you Javier...no you first, I insist amigo...” Either way, frying pan or zombie fest, some very weird results that can make toteboards slap themselves in disbelief are sometimes known to happen in these kinds of circumstances. Wake me and my wallet when it's over.

At Turfway's “Steaks” race I guess I'm greatful that neither Alpo or Purina Cat Chow was the high bidder for sponsorship & naming rights over that class act.

At Tampa I'm most interested in closely watching Dream Maker and Tacitus, in that order, to get a read on where they're really at, if they're done playing the part of well dressed but shadowy mystery guests with no visible means of support. In my view either one could be fish or fowl, with something good up their sleeve, or nuttin' at all. But I'll be just window shopping.

Of course between the potential fish fry in Queens and the discount “Steaks” apparently for sale outta the back of a van on the backstretch in Florence, KY, I'll wanna be going to see a filly about a thing down in Hot Springs.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 9th, 2019 at 6:32:45 PM permalink
Gotham:
Haikal won. He never looked like the winner, until he did.

TB Derby:
Tacitus won. The final time 1:41.90 seemed very solid. Flameaway won the Challenger a few races earlier in 1:41.89. Track record is 2017- Stanford 1:41.75. Maybe he really is Bill Mott's best Derby chance?

J Ruby:
Somelikeithotbrown won.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 9th, 2019 at 9:00:13 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>...

TB Derby:
Tacitus won. The final time 1:41.90 seemed very solid. Flameaway won the Challenger a few races earlier in 1:41.89. Track record is 2017- Stanford 1:41.75. Maybe he really is Bill Mott's best Derby chance?...

Yes, that Tampa main track is known for usually being one of the most notoriously deep slow surfaces for raw route times on most days. Crude track equalization charts based on simple comparison of par times have it at about 17 old fashioned "fifth-second' ticks slower than US & Canada average, with the same routes at Gulfstream running about 8 ticks slow by the same crude estimates, implying you'd subtract almost two seconds off your 2-turn time going from TAM to GP. So, yes. Pending the serious grind work of brewing a semi-trustworthy variant for that very sexy impressive naked number, among other things.

FWIW, I was doing some cowardly no-bet focused watching of that one in preparation for the possibility, but not expectation, of potentially taking him seriously "if." I'm taking him quite seriously. BTW, I have his weighted pedigree AWD at 7.4f. Orb's number. I know you'll appreciate that thought.

This is only from a first quick-n-dirty cut of some crude raw time comparison and an initial sloppy seat of the pants 'eye-test' trip evaluation, without yet digging into the more thorough job of slicing & dicing, so by all means discount it even more than the usual horsey opinion. But I wanna post the uncooked crumb because I think I might be getting quite near the point of taking a hike from this joint. And I wasn't sure if I'd given you that AWD when you mentioned your interest in him earlier, so there you have it.

Cheers & good luck.

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