DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 2nd, 2019 at 2:47:52 PM permalink
Besides the two in my futures stable (Scroll & Global) the other two that look potentially most live to me in this race are Bourbon War or Vekoma, depending on how the pace develops. Loading now.

EDIT: I really didn't see McGaughey's colt doing that. Still don't, and he's probably still not interesting as a contender for ten furlongs in May at CD to me, much as I respect the connections. Bet small here, just for sporting interest, but Shug's training prowess screwed me out of having everything on the board every which way separately & together. *snivel* *whine* *soiled-hanky-toss* Next!

Tampa (Bay Derby) & Aqueduct (Gotham) & Santa Anita (San Felipe) & even Turfway (Jeff Ruby) & Churchill's KDFW Pool #3 open on Fri-Sun are on tap next weekend.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 2, 2019
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 3667
March 2nd, 2019 at 3:13:34 PM permalink
If I had to pick one from that race, I’m picking bourbon war
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 2nd, 2019 at 6:07:41 PM permalink
IMO Bourbon War ran well and his connections should be pleased, though the race did set up perfectly for him. For Hidden Scroll, I don't think it was a surprising race under the circumstances. If he's going to progress to take a step up off this experience, and I think he may, he'll need to learn to ration his considerable assets to become more tactical. Maybe still on this path, maybe not.

Global Campaign was the biggest disappointment to me. His effort was tactically quite peculiar for him. Producing a running line more like what Code of Honor did would've been the likely expected plan for that one, setting up in position for a stretch run that's right in his natural wheelhouse, and more likely to be productive in this field today. I wouldn't necessarily write him off, provided I hear something about Luis Saez getting taken out behind the barn for a good paddling, or getting fired. His mount shouldn't have been too fresh & pulling, in light of his GP race 3 weeks ago at the distance. At this point in his riding career & given his extensive local riding history he should be intuitively very aware of the pace at this track at any distance, with an accurate internal tick-tock going on as second nature without even needing a glance at any mechanical timer.

Overall, without yet parsing out each individual performance, that was not a strongly contested finish at all, and it couldn't be. Staggering home was just about the only possible end of this race, given the thermonuclear beginning & volcanic middle.

2 Frlg--4 Frlg--6 Frlg--1 Mile--8.5 Frlg - (final split last 1/2 furlong to wire)
24.25 49.62 1:13.60 1:37.00 1:43.01 (6.01) Maiden Special, 3y/o, Fillies
24.03 48.36 1:12.80 1:38.17 1:44.84 (6.67) Maiden Special, 3y/o
22.80 45.69 1:10.42 1:36.84 1:43.85 (7.01) Fountain of Youth, $400k Gr. 2, 3/yo
22.56 45.26 1:09.53..( N/A )...(N/A)...(N/A) GP Sprint Stakes, $100k, Gr. 3, 4y/o+ <-<-

Bear in mind that the first quarter at 8.5f GP routes involves running into the turn right away, while the first quarter of the sprint was a straight run down the backstretch which is far less taxing & should be much quicker. So the early fractions of the FoY were not just very fast for the distance on this surface, they were sizzling to a degree that was way beyond far too hot at any level of 2-turn route competition, as well as being completely absurd for any peers in the same 3y/o restricted age cohort. And not only that, but the final time of that graded stakes for older fully mature sprinters was actually the only faster six furlong time at any distance at all in any company, including all other sprints.

I think the first most essential dominant factor for an evaluation of anyone's performance in this event is that contesting, pressing, or even closely stalking that pace was simply suicidal. It would've been severely compromising for an experienced field of fully mature Grade 1 winners, let alone for these colts still in their early adolescence. You just don't do 'forty-five & change' in two turn events on the Gulfstream surface.

EDIT: Corrections & deletions made after publication of final chart, for fixing typo in first reports of 4f fraction.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 2, 2019
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 3rd, 2019 at 9:52:25 AM permalink
Beyer: 95

lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2347
March 3rd, 2019 at 10:45:32 AM permalink
the first image is the winning Beyers for the Preakness from 1987 to 2009
the 2nd image is the best Beyers for 3 year olds this year thru March 2
since Hidden Scroll's big Beyer now seems suspect (may have been due to an easy trip loose on the lead and loving the slop)
and Maximum Security's big Beyer was at just 7 furlongs - so who knows - he's never run anything other than a sprint
right now the speed of this crop does not look at all impressive to me
Justify got a 103 in the KY Derby and a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby
not much time left for these colts to improve before the Derby but it is possible they will
(finger stretch to see the numbers better)
Comments?



it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 3rd, 2019 at 1:06:35 PM permalink
To me a potential Derby contender running a Beyer figure around the low to mid-90s at these Mile & 1/16th distances in late February to early March is okay. Not terrific, or terrible, but okay. What matters to me now is seeing the right patern of progression developing. If they are the right kind, they'll still be moving up on a pretty steeply sloped growth & developement curve, and weeks will still matter quite a bit in colt years for that kind of individual, like going from high school freshman to the point of being a leader on the school's varsity as a junior and getting early inquiries by college athletic programs. And after this point (following similar 8.5f Gr2/Gr3 “prep” events in next week's round) there can be no training setbacks, regression, or hiccups in form & fitness.

Then in about a month as the calendar flips to April I'd like to see a Derby horse of mine produce a performance at a mile and an eighth that gets a BSF of around 98-103ish. So progressing to about triple digit territory on the Beyer scale, and most importantly being one of the minority in his class who is still clearly benefiting with the additonal weeks & distance. Then if I really have the right sort of animal for this task in my barn, he'd be on a trajectory for further improvement to something in the nieghborhood of 105 to 110 or so going a mile and a quarter two months from now, to have a good shot to get his picture taken in that ten furlong Churhill Downs feature race in early May.

By the way, the result chart is a handy excuse to mention... If I had a prop bet regularly available for using this odd little niche “skill” then pretty soon Steve Wynn would be my gardener & cat butler:
Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>...

Little known fact is that the term "Trained by Jaime Mejia" is actually known as a form of creole-spanglish lingo for "Dead Last" on the streets of Miami. In his favor for anyone expecting a sudden eruption of Mejia competence his FoY entry of Galdiator King has actually won some races in his very busy young life, sprinting as a 2y/o. in 3 routes already, he's only lost by 34, 20, and 28 lengths, so of course after being outfinished in the stretch at 5 furlongs on grass just days ago, Jaime sends him to a Grade 2 Derby qualifying even tomorrow. Have I ever mentioned I'm really good at selecting horses to finish dead last? Not as easy as it sounds, lemme tell ya. Except tomorrow.

Equibase FoY Chart

Quote: Equibase

...empty after half...

Horse Name:Gladiator King ... Fin: 1133

Footnotes:

...<10 others>...

...GLADIATOR KING vied for the lead with HIDDEN SCROLL in first turn, continued to press the pace through early stages then retreated after half.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 3, 2019
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2347
March 6th, 2019 at 4:02:43 AM permalink
I also posted this in the other thread - but I thought important enough to post in 2 places so no one would miss it

incredible - Santa Anita has been shut down
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/03/06/something-is-drastically-wrong-after-horse-die-storied-california-track-shuts-down-racing/?utm_term=.8b62e762de21

it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 42
  • Posts: 1121
March 6th, 2019 at 4:38:20 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I also posted this in the other thread - but I thought important enough to post in 2 places so no one would miss it

incredible - Santa Anita has been shut down
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/03/06/something-is-drastically-wrong-after-horse-die-storied-california-track-shuts-down-racing/?utm_term=.8b62e762de21

I think they did the right thing.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2347
March 6th, 2019 at 5:51:41 AM permalink
wonder how many are Baffert horses. he lost a lot of horses a few years ago. guess we'll find out soon enough
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 996
March 7th, 2019 at 5:41:41 PM permalink
I thought Hidden Scroll ran very well to be anywhere close at the end with those early splits. Crazy fast pace and a very slow finish. Seems like yet another weird Gulfstream Derby prep. If the same horses were to enter and run in the Florida Derby (9F), I would bet Hidden Scroll would be the favorite again...

Super Steed is off the Derby trail. Santa Anita is dealing with track issues and creating problems for Baffert and others. I have not handicapped this weekend's events yet.

  • Jump to: