DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 28th, 2019 at 5:48:36 PM permalink
I don't think Bourbon War is a toss-out at all, especially if there's a hot pace for him to run at. But I can't really see getting all of 10:1 on him.

Here's the Equibase version of free Race of the Week PPs for the same event: http://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 28th, 2019 at 7:40:24 PM permalink
Interesting race with many to consider. I already have a future wager on Epic Dreamer, so I hope he can improve over his Holy Bull effort. Hard to really toss many in this event. Vekoma and Signalman return for their 3 year old debuts after solid 2 year old campaigns. And of course Hidden Scroll gets his first race against winners. I would be very surprised if HScroll beats this field second time out. It is a pretty salty bunch. Surprised the Toddster does not have one going in this event. Plenty of speed and off the pace types to choose from. GLTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 1st, 2019 at 3:59:01 AM permalink
As K said it is very surprising that Hidden Scroll is the morning line favorite and may very well be the actual fave having only run one race
the buzz about him is apparently pretty strong

all of the other horses have more experience and some have much more experience

obviously, there is the idea out there that he may be very special
I don't think I'll bet on him but I'm kind of rooting for him

it's fun to see a truly great horse develop if he is that

and am so thankful he's not a Baffert horse - that would ruin it for me


I remember what a great job Bill Mott did with Cigar. as a 3 year old before Mott got him he only won 2 of 9 races and won no stakes events
Cigar was my favorite horse of all time





Note: Hidden Scroll's jock, Joel Rosario, is winning at clip of 24% this year and in the money 59%, which is exceptional

Re Bourbon War: it looks like he made a strong stretch move last time out but the last 5/16ths was covered in just under 32 seconds which is not quick

this is my last comment and then I'll shut up for a good while:

I watched the replay of Hidden Scroll's win a couple of times and Rosario definitely wrapped him up (slowed him down) the last few strides - he could have easily gotten even a higher figure
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 1, 2019
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DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 1st, 2019 at 9:33:54 AM permalink
So Bill Mott is running a Derby nominated colt that's in my future book stable... going to post in about an hour from now, in a first level restricted allowance in the 2nd at Gulfstream today. Mucho is returning to the track after finishing 2nd in the Hopeful at Saratoga six months ago, He's now showing up with fist time Lasix for his return and has been spitting a series of bullet works at the Payson training track. In post #1 in a five horse field he's sporting a morning line number of "Yeesh" otherwise known as "1:5" in your program. Not a typo, morning line dude thinks about $2.40 on the nose.

Quote:

Hard to really toss many in this event.

Little known fact is that the term "Trained by Jaime Mejia" is actually known as a form of creole-spanglish lingo for "Dead Last" on the streets of Miami. In his favor for anyone expecting a sudden eruption of Mejia competence his FoY entry of Galdiator King has actually won some races in his very busy young life, sprinting as a 2y/o. in 3 routes already, he's only lost by 34, 20, and 28 lengths, so of course after being outfinished in the stretch at 5 furlongs on grass just days ago, Jaime sends him to a Grade 2 Derby qualifying even tomorrow. Have I ever mentioned I'm really good at selecting horses to finish dead last? Not as easy as it sounds, lemme tell ya. Except tomorrow.

I do NOT want to suggest anyone should simply take these pedigree AWD numbers of mine as some kind of straight predictor for the result of this race on this surface tomorrow without regard to fitness, form, training, surface, speed, pace, post... no. They may be better viewed as a tool for projecting the shape of their most probable development curve moving down the road with each additional step in maturity & distance. But since I've got them in front of me and about 1.5 people here are somewhat interested, here you go with AWDs for the FoY field:

#1 Code of Honor 7.1f
#2 Epic Dreamer 6.9f
#3 Gladiator King 7.3f
#4 Bourbon War 7.4f
#5 Vekoma 6.9f
#6 Signalman 6.9f
#7 Hidden Scroll 7.5f
#8 Global Campaign 7.8f
#9 Everlast 7.1f
#10 Frosted Grace 7.0f
#11 Union's Destiny 7.6f
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 1st, 2019 at 3:19:11 PM permalink
Good stuff DD. I would guess GCampaign is one with KD potential you mentioned being interested in. He has done nothing wrong in his 2 "wrapped up" starts so far. He is another one that makes this race difficult to predict. I could potentially see 2/3/4 horses making the Derby gate from this field.
Quote: DrawingDead


#6 Signalman 6.9f

Even with a lowish AWD this animal is hard to ignore from a KD future betting perspective. He already has 18 points to make the gate. And he has raced over the CDowns track multiple times with very good results. He doesn't really need to run great in this event, but just get back into racing form for the first Saturday in May.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 1st, 2019 at 3:22:33 PM permalink
Signalman is probably most likely to hit the board in this group.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 1st, 2019 at 3:50:18 PM permalink
Baffert has Roadster (listed in KDerby Pool #1) returning today in SA #8 in about an hour. Another Derby "prospect", Nolo Contesto, is also competing in the 1 mile AOC event.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 1st, 2019 at 4:08:34 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

...I would guess GCampaign is one with KD potential you mentioned being interested in....<SNIP>

Along with Hidden Scroll & War of Will, he's one of the three I took in KDFW Pool #2, closing at 22/1.

McPeek Cuts His Own Path With Talented 3-Year-Old Trio

[Bold emphasis added]
Quote: BloodHorse - Tom Pedulla

...<SNIP>...

Signalman worked five furlongs in company with Harvey Wallbanger last Saturday at Gulfstream, both clocked in 1:01.75. Signalman already has 18 qualifying points for the Derby, so McPeek is not treating the Fountain of Youth as a must-win situation. Signalman will break from post 6 in a field of 11; he is listed at morning-line odds of 9-2.

"We haven't hammered on him to get him ready for this race," the trainer said. "He needs to run a good race in this upcoming start, and then we'll pick the next prep after that. It's not the end of the world if he gets beaten this weekend. What's important is that he peaks in May."

McPeek is eying the April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland as the likely next stop for Signalman.

...<SNIP>...

I'm pretty sure McPeek was just kind enough to tell me what not to do with my money.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 1st, 2019 at 4:38:33 PM permalink
I promise I did not read that article before my post. :)
This looks like a very good Derby prep race. Hard to bet/handicap but a must watch to see what happens...
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 2nd, 2019 at 7:42:07 AM permalink
I listened to a 15 min interview with McPeek on HRRN.

He said the horse was almost 100%. Just because itís not the end of the world if he doesnít win, doesnít mean he wonít win.

I think Signalman is very live.

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