Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 19th, 2010 at 3:40:47 PM permalink
I just finished a rough draft of a new page on NFL teasers. Before I announce the page, I'd appreciate any comments, questions, or corrections. I'm feeling pretty sick today, so there may be a lot of typos.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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October 19th, 2010 at 4:56:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just finished a rough draft of a new page on NFL teasers. Before I announce the page, I'd appreciate any comments, questions, or corrections. I'm feeling pretty sick today, so there may be a lot of typos.



I never understood teasers much before this, the way you wrote it is pretty easy to understand. I had to read it twice, but I just got off all day of work and half watching FNC while I read it. I need to see the actual odds at Bodog, but they look interesting since I have missed several games by 1-3 points this year.

Hope you are feeling better.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Ayecarumba
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October 19th, 2010 at 5:19:30 PM permalink
Looks great Wizard. I spotted a typo in the introduction:

"However, because I did a 6-point teaser, all four points spreads..." I suggest rewording it to, "However, because I did a 6-point teaser, all the point spreads..."

Also, if you could define "Sides", as used in the table, that would make it clearer.
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mkl654321
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October 19th, 2010 at 5:19:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just finished a rough draft of a new page on NFL teasers. Before I announce the page, I'd appreciate any comments, questions, or corrections. I'm feeling pretty sick today, so there may be a lot of typos.



I like the looks of it, and appreciate the effort you've done, but I'm looking at this long row of -EV numbers, and it just looks like "crappy bet, crappy bet, crappy bet", over and over. What practical application does this information have, since the only proper strategy regarding teasers seems to be, "ignore them"?

I also wonder if the current 10-11 payout on 2-team 6 point teasers was based on the realization that the old even money payoff was positive EV for the player.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
thecesspit
thecesspit
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October 19th, 2010 at 5:49:35 PM permalink
The HTML Page title is "Teasuers", so that shows up in the browser title.

There's some useful information in there... I hate taking teasers (if I'm going to roll the big dice, I'll take a 10-team parlay and use that $2 to dream), but the point crossing teasers are better value than I had thought.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 20th, 2010 at 2:15:29 AM permalink
Thanks for all the comments. I just made those changes and corrections. Yeah, teasers are sucker bets unless you cross the key margin of victories, and get the premium odds. Sometimes when I'm in a sports book I look at discarded bets, and see just awful teasers. I've heard that most casinos got rid of the 11-10 teasers because too many people were doing the Wong teasers.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
odiousgambit
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October 20th, 2010 at 8:36:17 AM permalink
The Cal Neva 5-Team advice seems to be what would ordinarily be of the "I'll keep this to myself" type. Am I missing something?
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Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 20th, 2010 at 8:55:54 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The Cal Neva 5-Team advice seems to be what would ordinarily be of the "I'll keep this to myself" type. Am I missing something?



I thought of that. However, I like to give my readers a juicy bone once in a while.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
michael99000
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October 21st, 2010 at 1:45:58 AM permalink
'So don't throw away a teaser bet if the first game loses, because it will still push if every other pick results in a push. "

I dont think this is stated correctly in the rough draft Wizard. You meant to say if the first game pushes. If the first game loses
the teaser is a loser because u have to win or push on every game.

Also, let it be noted that at many online sportsbooks, any push within a teaser causes it to be a loser.
michael99000
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October 21st, 2010 at 1:50:00 AM permalink
Id be curious to know how many winning two team 6 point teasers wouldve also been a winner had they been submitted instead as a
two team Parlay at the true point spreads for both teams. I find that almost every time i win a 2 team teaser, i wouldve won it as a parlay also because
the teaser points were not needed to win either game. and of course the parlay wouldve paid much higher odds.

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