I bet $100 on every NFL game with a friend. Our system is simple - he picks all games one week and I pick the next. We bet even money using point spreads on Bovada. This is my week to pick.
Iím not a big sports fan...I pick games to maximize my return. Using the Wizardís data, I will win 50.05 % and push 2.76% by picking all underdogs, which I always do. With no juice, that gives me a 2.86% advantage on my picks.
Now on Thursday night, Carolina is favored by 3 but you have to lay -125 for that line. I would guess it would be -110 at 3.5 points.
My question....with Eagles +3 (+105) and Carolina at -3 (-125) what is the higher expected return for an even money bet ? Do I deviate from my strategy of taking all dogs ?
PS he can use the same strategy or any other strategy for his picks so I donít see this as vigorish on my friend.
The betting market says Carolina is worth -3.5 and you can get it at -3. Take Carolina.
The market says you should get 3.5 to take the Eagles. You are getting 3. Pass on Eagles.
The juice doesn't affect your contest. The juice just provides added info about what the market thinks and you can take advantage of it.