JDeze College Cover Picks

Quote: gordonm888

What I am looking for in a "picker" is someone who has a long-term average of being correct 55% or more of the time.

I do not expect a picker to be:
- at 50% or above every week
- to have a long-term average above 70% every week.

I realize that even the best pickers may occasionally go 0-5 in a week. That's okay, as long as the long-term average is 55% or higher.

What is a little troubling to me is that you seem to be overly defensive about having a week with a few wrong picks. As if you don't understand the concept of statistical variance. And, as if you don't have the emotional make-up of someone who has been betting for quite a while and has seen a lot of crazy things happen both ways. It does not make a positive impression on your readers, IMO.

When it comes to sports wagering I take a risk averse approach early in the season and responsibly avoid too much risk appetite. I allow the data to build up over the early weeks and then utilize that data in the mid to late part of the season. I've seen my fair share of bad weeks over time. There's usually one or two during the season. It happens.

As for emotional make-up, I am one of the easiest going persons you may ever meet. I have a very calm disposition and my greatest weakness may be that I tend to over explain things and lecture. I am a positive person in general.

I followed the mlb tips from steeldco for years, as someone who is non Americans and living in a different time zone ,I used the information (read tips) to make my bets. My aim was to at least by the end of the season was to have a perfect round ie all selections on the one ticket parlay/ multi bet, win .
From experience of betting on NRL here in Australia, 16 teams= 8games per week, between 8 or 5 or 6 selections per ticket per week.I found with right money management by the end of the season (26 weeks )I would win more than I out layed.
I found by not having an opinion on game hard luck stories ref errors etc I could bet against my own team quite happily as my goal was the payout of a perfect round. I found I could enjoy my team playing as I would make money one way or another at some point in time.
So here we are looking for tips on USA sports. The tips provided by steeldco I would bet with and also would have a betting ticket of the exact opposite of his tips on the same day. On the days his selection was 100% wrong I made money, on days he was 100%correct I made money.
The 50 odd college football team, 30odd nfl team plus mlb and nhl is a lot of information to process. If someone can offer a half a dozen selections per week per code/ nfl nhl etc that someone like me can turn into a winning ticket, savings me time on time on time again to mix and match combinations for a profit. I say thank you. Thank you very much.
I look forward to your total losing posted selection of that day or round, I look forward to your 100% correct day or round. I have made money. Thank you.
Life is way to short, time is way to finite to get bogged down .
If someone is so bad at selecting winners and they post the selections don’t be upset bet against their post , make money, be happy.
Kind regards.

Quote: SM777

I hope you're not surprised by this. Or if you are, you must've missed my numerous documented posts of Joel lying and forging records and profitability on this site in an attempt to appear to be a sharp sports bettor. Presumably all in an attempt to get people to sign up to his scam of a website. It really never ends with this guy.

But as always, members here will give him a pass because he's posting "information," whatever that means.

It's sad really.

What is sad is that some don't seem to grasp that most of it is just a sales effort. He spends perhaps five minutes posting what reads as an intelligent analysis of the games hoping for a few "click and pay"s on his website or PM's asking for help etc.. Never under estimate the willingness of some people to sell you something that's worth nothing. It's a numbers game. It's a game of making people feel like there is something of value available for their money from a tout.

Quote: NokTang

What is sad is that some don't seem to grasp that most of it is just a sales effort. He spends perhaps five minutes posting what reads as an intelligent analysis of the games hoping for a few "click and pay"s on his website or PM's asking for help etc.. Never under estimate the willingness of some people to sell you something that's worth nothing. It's a numbers game. It's a game of making people feel like there is something of value available for their money from a tout.

Yes good call somebody will always do as you’ve written. Sorry for them but nothing you or I can say or do will stop them from throwing their cash away. I personally don’t subscribe nor do I endorse such activities.
Perhaps there is no effort in the posted selections maybe there is, personally I don’t care . My statement is somebody posts a few team names, for what ever criteria is the reason, I will bet with and against that selection on that day. Compound betting one ticket may return say $12 per unit outlay the other $4:50 per unit outlay.
EPL in England, 40 weeks bet on 10-12 games per ticket average return per unit between $150ish and $89,000ish (depending on combinations ) simply bet $1per week ie = $40outlay for season (as you miss a week here and there, life etc) you will have a winning round at least once per season. Not always at the high end of example. Ok win one $150 round in 3 years and you still up $30 , an example only.
There are free tipping sites worldwide, FREE.. no need to pay , just cherry pick the best tipper and so on.
So yes naughty who ever if they are touting and naughty whoever that pays for it, reminds me of the other oldest professions on the planet, I digress, but you’ve all pointed the finger every page on every tip posters I’ve seen on this site over the years.
Let them post, I really agree to ousting them if they violate the rules, let those that want to lose $ and pay for the tout service let them all crash and burn . Just let the rest of us that just want to catch up with the selections view the tips.
Maybe the tippers mistake is they make comments, give reasons why etc or they show pride or enthusiasm for what they are presenting. And we may misconstrue that they mean something else. Yes I do agree I don’t want to hear how much you make or didn’t make or even why, because it just open up a bad can of worms, and it’s just superficial dross.
Maybe they should just list tips,
example being here’s week 7 tip x, y,z,a,g,k thanks good luck.
Perhaps, we the members , the viewers ,should refrain from asking questions of the tippers as per how they got this decision,what algorithms are you using etc. Maybe we could refrain from telling the tipper how much better our selection method is especially if we don’t have an active tipping post at the time. Some guy used to do that on steeldco post on mlb it would drive me nuts. Your that good, start your own post.
You all seem to get hung up on differing odds posted as it may vary by a point, really ,get over it. Work with your betting agent/bookie or get a new one ,can’t get a new one or won’t , don’t complain.
I’m sure the administration on this site as I’ve seen over the years deleted and banned posters for rule violation, let them ban the posters but give it a rest until then.
Thanks kind regards.

Quote: NokTang

What is sad is that some don't seem to grasp that most of it is just a sales effort. He spends perhaps five minutes posting what reads as an intelligent analysis of the games hoping for a few "click and pay"s on his website or PM's asking for help etc.. Never under estimate the willingness of some people to sell you something that's worth nothing. It's a numbers game. It's a game of making people feel like there is something of value available for their money from a tout.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Quote: SM777

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Regarding touts, I agree with the arguments against them completely. I am not a tout and have never been anything closely resembling one. I don't receive PMs from people asking for help. The moderators can look into that and show I'm correct. I don't link my research site on this board. I don't link anything in my signature on this board.

I post my wagers openly and with pictures to prove what I'm wagering on before the events.

If there is something I can do, as proof to you, what would that be? What would make you believe otherwise? If I go 65% ATS in college football for the remainder of the season would you shrug your shoulders and then say it was sheer dumb luck?

How about a friendly wager?

I agree to wager that if I do not have a 65% or greater win record on college wagered picks by the end of the season, I will stop posting indefinitely. If I do, SM777 has to apologize to me publicly and then stop posting "only on my threads" forever.

If you truly believe I'm a tout then this should be an easy wager for you.

Quote: JoelDeze

Regarding touts, I agree with the arguments against them completely. I am not a tout and have never been anything closely resembling one. I don't receive PMs from people asking for help. The moderators can look into that and show I'm correct. I don't link my research site on this board. I don't link anything in my signature on this board.

I post my wagers openly and with pictures to prove what I'm wagering on before the events.

If there is something I can do, as proof to you, what would that be? What would make you believe otherwise? If I go 65% ATS in college football for the remainder of the season would you shrug your shoulders and then say it was sheer dumb luck?

How about a friendly wager?

I agree to wager that if I do not have a 65% or greater win record on college wagered picks by the end of the season, I will stop posting indefinitely. If I do, SM777 has to apologize to me publicly and then stop posting "only on my threads" forever.

If you truly believe I'm a tout then this should be an easy wager for you.

You obviously started posting picks here in hopes of getting people to sign up for your website. That's a non-debatable fact. When it didn't go so well in the beginning, and members of this forum were off put by you trying to "sell" them information, maybe you stayed around because you enjoyed it here. There's lots of good information, and a great group of people.

As far as the wager, that's just silly. I think your posts are comedic gold. It's funny watching you squirm around keeping an accurate tally of your "profits" and win/loss record, as well as posting bets after the games are played, and changing parlays. I truly enjoy watching you post about it, and how the community reacts. It's crazy to me that with documented proof of MULTIPLE infractions on keeping an accurate record, some people continue to urge you to post. My belief is they find your posts as amusing as I do, and just kindly ask you to post to watch this snowball continue down the hill. It leaves everyone wondering, "how dumb does Joeldeze think this forum is? What will he try next to erase a losing wager?" Stay tuned for next week!

To make a claim of 65% is just silly. Anyone familiar with the sports betting industry knows you can't do that against non stale lines. And in fact if you could, you wouldn't be here posting about it. You'd be spending your time figuring out how you could get down more than $55.55 on these wagers. It's not a fair wager from your standpoint, and you know it. So, I don't accept because it's a lopsided wager (sure in my favor, but I'm a fair guy) and I don't want to see you go. I want to see how you attempt to swindle the forum next.

I remember when Joel first came to the forums, and I too thought he was a salesman. However, he took his beating, and appears to have "reformed" from that. I haven't seen him post a link to anything in a long time. I haven't PM'd him, but he also hasn't PM'd me, even though I've shown interest in following along for fun (I don't bet on his picks even).

I can see where both of you are coming from, but SM you're riding him pretty hard for an open thread posting picks before games. Why not let him just do it and see where he ends up at the end of the season?

One of the things I believe in, and I put in my articles... Always trust the man willing to bet money. If you truly think he's a salesman then make a money wager he can't go 65% ATS starting now through the end of the season. I'd be more than willing to receive PM's from him and send them to you in a timely fashion about his picks BEFORE the days of the games. On the other side - if Joel really does believe he's that good and can make 65% ATS, then he should have no problem with a money wager, obviously. At the end of the day, I don't know who to believe... So I'll believe the guy who puts his money where his mouth is.

Quote: Romes

I remember when Joel first came to the forums, and I too thought he was a salesman. However, he took his beating, and appears to have "reformed" from that. I haven't seen him post a link to anything in a long time. I haven't PM'd him, but he also hasn't PM'd me, even though I've shown interest in following along for fun (I don't bet on his picks even).

I can see where both of you are coming from, but SM you're riding him pretty hard for an open thread posting picks before games. Why not let him just do it and see where he ends up at the end of the season?

One of the things I believe in, and I put in my articles... Always trust the man willing to bet money. If you truly think he's a salesman then make a money wager he can't go 65% ATS starting now through the end of the season. I'd be more than willing to receive PM's from him and send them to you in a timely fashion about his picks BEFORE the days of the games. On the other side - if Joel really does believe he's that good and can make 65% ATS, then he should have no problem with a money wager, obviously. At the end of the day, I don't know who to believe... So I'll believe the guy who puts his money where his mouth is.

There was no offer of money.

It's a lose/lose for me, not to mention every single person here knows Joel can't pick 65% winners against non stale spreads. If Joel no longer posts, I loose that entertainment value. If Joel miraculously hits 65% in an extremely small sample size, I have to apologize for him trying to scam the forum into purchasing his picks and information? That doesn't even make sense, as hitting 65% and me apologizing for Joel trying to scam the forum aren't correlated.

Quote: SM777

There was no offer of money...

I was saying instead of arguing you two should make a money offer. Just like the NFL Picks thread, we can post lines at a specific time, and he can get his picks in via PM (I offered to be an unbiased intermediary) by a specific time. No way to get around it then, picks are solid, and he has to go 65% ATS. If you feel that's very unlikely, then it's a great monetary bet for you. If he feels he is that good, it's a great monetary bet for him.

...So who's confident?

Quote: SM777

Couldn't have said it better myself.

I have questions.
Do you know JD from outside of this forum?
Assuming you want JD to stop posting picks (or be banned by the Mods), which rule of the forum is JD violating by posting his NFL/College picks here?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/2-forum-rules/#post37215
Do you a want him to remove mention of his site from his profile?
----------

BTW, I agree with the majority of what you have pointed out about JD. I just wonder what you want/expect to see happen.

Quote: Keeneone

I have questions.
Do you know JD from outside of this forum?
Assuming you want JD to stop posting picks (or be banned by the Mods), which rule of the forum is JD violating by posting his NFL/College picks here?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/2-forum-rules/#post37215
Do you a want him to remove mention of his site from his profile?
----------

BTW, I agree with the majority of what you have pointed out about JD. I just wonder what you want/expect to see happen.

I don't want to see Joel banned, but I don't enforce the rules here, so that's up to those who do. I'd imagine lying and forging a record to attempt to get members of this forum to sign up for your website is against one of the rules, but we'd lose the entertainment value provided of Joel trying to swindle this forum.

What I want to happen is that 0 people from this great forum and community sign up for his scam. And that is why I post and point out what I do in Joel's threads.

Quote: SM777

I don't want to see Joel banned, but I don't enforce the rules here, so that's up to those who do. I'd imagine lying and forging a record to attempt to get members of this forum to sign up for your website is against one of the rules, but we'd lose the entertainment value provided of Joel trying to swindle this forum.

What I want to happen is that 0 people from this great forum and community sign up for his scam. And that is why I post and point out what I do in Joel's threads.

Joel mentioned a year or two ago that "it wouldn't be fair" to those paying him for picks for him to disclose something. It was a bait of sorts, I'll never forgot it. Like has been said, attempting to claim winners after a game is over is sort of silly and not really entertaining. However, his analysis of various games is an interesting read as are the thousands of others. It's all free. Tricking people into thinking there is something of more value if you pay him is and remains the issue. It's very childlike.

I haven't been paying attention to his picks, Is he hitting 65% or more now?

Would he be willing to bet that he can hit 65% from this point on? (his picks only get stronger with more data correct?) How many picks would he be required to make? I don't want to bet you off of the forum, however, I am interested in making a side bet. If we do, lets not making a silly little bragging rights bet.

After all this ruckus and his "mistakes" if he doesn't hit 65% there would be no reason to continue "touting" this forum anyways.


I can't wait to see the BIG bets he will be making on the games during the strong weeks. Are are we talking at least 5k per game?


You can't make bets, take a screenshot and then cancel them, can you? I can see someone doing that. I wouldn't even put it past a tout to make big bets and then hedge them off. You got to spend money to make money.

Quote: AxelWolf

I haven't been paying attention to his picks, Is he hitting 65% or more now?

Would he be willing to bet that he can hit 65% from this point on? (his picks only get stronger with more data correct?) How many picks would he be required to make? I don't want to bet you off of the forum, however, I am interested in making a side bet. If we do, lets not making a silly little bragging rights bet.

After all this ruckus and his "mistakes" if he doesn't hit 65% there would be no reason to continue "touting" this forum anyways.


I can't wait to see the BIG bets he will be making on the games. Are are we talking at least 5k per game?


You can't make bets, take a screenshot and then cancel them, can you? I can see someone doing that. I wouldn't even put it past a tout to make big bets and then hedge them off. You got to spend money to make money.

That's similar to what this Vegas Dave clown does. Bets over half the league in future bets, then come playoff time, posts the one that is in the best spot and claims it was his pick the entire time. Has grown quite a fan base off it, since no one knows about all the losing tickets he has from it.

Quote: AxelWolf

I can't wait to see the BIG bets he will be making on the games during the strong weeks. Are are we talking at least 5k per game?

He did say last year that he had five figures in action during the games. I don't know if that is 10 $1,000 bets or a lot of big bets.

Quote: Romes

I remember when Joel first came to the forums, and I too thought he was a salesman. However, he took his beating, and appears to have "reformed" from that.

So his plan worked as I had predicted.

From Romes to Joel

Assuming he didn't blow it all on craps and BJ, after years of being a successful sports bettor, he should have amassed a significant sized Bankroll(I'm going to assume he also had a very successful career). Anyone that's reasonably sane, who has enough confidence in their picks, especially someone who thinks they will hit 65% by the end of a season should be betting 10's of thousands per game. He should have a force of runners and as many online accounts as possible.

FK Billy Walters, we got JoelD in da house.

Quote: beachmonkey

The tips provided by steeldco I would bet with and also would have a betting ticket of the exact opposite of his tips on the same day. On the days his selection was 100% wrong I made money, on days he was 100%correct I made money.

Excuse me sir, but I don't quite understand this post. If you bet with and against all of steeldco's picks on parlays isn't the underlying message that you thought his picks had no value at all? What would be the difference between this and betting all for or all against a series of random picks? Are you saying that this method gave you an edge? How so? I'm not being sarcastic. I'm thinking I might be missing something and would like to learn.

Quote: lilredrooster

Excuse me sir, but I don't quite understand this post. If you bet with and against all of steeldco's picks on parlays isn't the underlying message that you thought his picks had no value at all? What would be the difference between this and betting all for or all against a series of random picks? Are you saying that this method gave you an edge? How so? I'm not being sarcastic. I'm thinking I might be missing something and would like to learn.

I can't speak for that post, but there's value in someone who is an awful sports bettor, just as there's value in someone who is a great sports bettor. If you find someone who is notoriously bad, you just bet the other side. Keep them around as you would as someone who is a long term winner.

Quote: AxelWolf

I can't wait to see the BIG bets he will be making on the games during the strong weeks. Are are we talking at least 5k per game?


You can't make bets, take a screenshot and then cancel them, can you? I can see someone doing that. I wouldn't even put it past a tout to make big bets and then hedge them off. You got to spend money to make money.

This reminds me of when some sports picking agency sold half the country one side of the Super Bowl and the other side of the country the other side. Nice clean simple scam. Just beautiful really. Heck I know they make that play in stock picking as well. Simple, Genius and just can't lose. The problem was that guy who ran the Boiler Room just got too greedy and didn't take his escape route. He really thought he could beat City Hall so to speak. I don't understand how such Genius people can make such Rookie mistakes. I am more of a two bit hustler so I don't understand the Big Con but I know keeping things smaller keeps me under the radar and I would rather get out with a clean 100 dollar bill instead of shooting for a 1000 risking the entire operation.

I like that quote in the movie Heat. This guy can hit or miss... You can't miss once!!

Quote: AxelWolf

I can't wait to see the BIG bets he will be making on the games during the strong weeks. Are are we talking at least 5k per game?

You and others often imply that if you have an edge in sports betting you should be making big bucks. It just doesn't work like that. I'm sure there are hundreds who beat sports but never bet or make big bucks. They just don't have that tolerance for risk. You can call them wimpy if you want. There are poker players who win but never bet big or fork over the 10K or whatever it takes to enter the big tournaments. There are blackjack APs who have a top bet of $150 and there are those who have a top bet of 2K. If a person is profitable long term I give them some credit for that. I don't demand that they prove their greatness by showing me their mansion in the hills.

Quote: lilredrooster

You and others often imply that if you have an edge in sports betting you should be making big bucks. It just doesn't work like that. I'm sure there are hundreds who beat sports but never bet or make big bucks. They just don't have that tolerance for risk. You can call them wimpy if you want. There are poker players who win but never bet big or fork over the 10K or whatever it takes to enter the big tournaments. There are blackjack APs who have a top bet of $150 and there are those who have a top bet of 2K. If a person is profitable long term I give them some credit for that. I don't demand that they prove their greatness by showing me their mansion in the hills.

A
Almost there,but not quite connecting the points a,b through the rest of the way to z. It’s not a case for tolerance for risk , not on my part at least, it’s more of a case of why bet $2000 on a single bet be it a multi bet of 10 legs or a double or even a straight out bet on fav/ underdogs if your starting bank for that season on that sport call it nfl is $2000 . I know this is a gambling site but why risk it all on one bet, if it’s because you want to impress your peers you should fess up and get a new set of peers or at least admit to yourself you have a serious gambling problem.
Sure let’s quantify the base here we are not talking about multi millionaires let’s say average monkey in the forest with average or even below average income $2k is a lot and you as a responsible punter want to get biggest bang for your buck. You don’t win every day but you aim to win long term over the season. Ok
I’ve known many gamblers most go the bet big get huge return route, after a week,a month,a year where are they ? Mostly 98% of them are broke, in deep debt, or back at work 9-5. Mostly they lament how close they came to that BigWin. On the odd occasion they won big and told the world about they blow it. Ego driven no substance methodology ie addict.
Here’s a question I ask other gamblers as they tell me what I’m doing is futile ‘what are you doing next Monday at 11:30am? Or the Monday in 7 weeks time? ‘ usually they say they are back at work. I say I’m doing whatever I want because my futile money management gambling method pays me.
It took me awhile to go through the dumb gamblers path as I was walking with the rest of the dumbies, when I realised the value of a 1 cent , penny, and how much I could compound from 1cent , I’ve never looked back, don’t have to quantify to anyone how much I make how big I bet not the size of my various banks. I really don’t care.
I go to my local casino a lot as I play baccarat same thing the big show people are not there next week everyday next month everyday. Crashed and burned they all blame someone or something other than themselves. They comeback in six months after saving more money or whatever and for two days fine, third day gone as per usual.
I play poker, why enter a tournament of 6000fools for $10000 buy in to get knocked out by someone playing bingo poker ie all in with 2&10 off suited pre flop and they pick up 2x2 on river & turn. Happened, apart from bragging rights and really you can lie to anyone at anytime why spend 10k like that for little or no return. Meanwhile play poker and take $1000 a day once a week for as long as you live. Oh one in 6000 wins the tournament, not good odds. Time plus risk plus capital outlay may as well play the electronic gaming machine. Etc.
so it’s not always about the big betting to prove how good you are it’s the length of time you continue to sustain yourself and you’re lifestyle.
Yes as the years go on your starting bank for each season does increase in size as does your bet size therefore you’re return ratio value increases etc. I can say this the money I use for various banks is all funded from profits from previous years betting returns.
My life expenses are not payed by dipping into one of my betting banks, betting bank is for betting business cash out at end of season etc . That was another breakthrough lesson that helped me progress. Up until 4yrears ago I worked to pay life expenses and bet the season banks on betting, until I got to the stage my life expenses could be meet by end of year cash out, now I don’t work and still use the betting banks to bet etc.
Yes I would like to bet $10000 per hand in baccarat or $10k per sport bet ticket per code per day /week as the return would be proportional, maybe as the betting banks increase I could. I do understand the egotistical nature of gambling but with out the proper bank sizing, proper rules and various disciplines in place I would just be like everyone else in handing my money to bookies and casinos. Hell the casino here allows you to drive up to the front door. I often think some people should just wind the window down and just throw the wallet at the front door, don’t slow down or even stop, just keep driving.
Kind regards.

Quote: AxelWolf

Assuming he didn't blow it all on craps and BJ, after years of being a successful sports bettor, he should have amassed a significant sized Bankroll(I'm going to assume he also had a very successful career). Anyone that's reasonably sane, who has enough confidence in their picks, especially someone who thinks they will hit 65% by the end of a season should be betting 10's of thousands per game. He should have a force of runners and as many online accounts as possible.

FK Billy Walters, we got JoelD in da house.

It doesn't work that way but I can understand that you may not have as much knowledge in this particular area so it's understandable to make those types of assumptions.

First, as I live out of the State of Nevada, you can't use messenger bettors in Vegas. It's illegal. They recently created a new law allowing Entity Wagering but that's another discussion altogether. In order to allow multiple people to move around in Vegas, my partners and I created an LLC and assigned everyone a percentage ownership. This allows everyone the ability to travel and wager on behalf of the company. Entity Wagering is different and requires a buy-in. We also had to announce ourselves to the books we operate within.

Second, you can't communicate across state lines to help someone make a wager on your behalf. It violates the electronic communications act, which is also illegal. This makes it difficult as the people going would be isolated and have to work on prior instructions. If a line moves, they have to be savvy enough to make adjustments. It takes 2 to 3 people to adequately cover the distance between books.

Third, the biggest issue with wagering any large monetary size is that it is highly likely that you will be limited. The first time we attempted to make an $6k wager with Cantor Gaming in 2013 we were instantly limited to $800 dollars. Some of that may be how much action they took in, or the fact that they were just cautious and didn't know us very well. We had to run around and spread the wager out across 5 books and we never reached our maximum cap at risk that week. This literally means running because you can't just grab a cab, even on small distances. It would take forever. And, we aren't going to trust electronic wagers on any scale.

Fourth, the amount of money accepted for college football is trivial compared to wagers taken in for the NFL. As we primarily work with College Football (see 3 above) it is difficult to reach CAP, regardless of limits set.

Fifth, counting expenses from the trip in and out of Vegas, we have to work out of a hole right from the start. Expense management is tough and many people overlook it.

Sixth, from a probability outlook, using a data driven system, it is much more profitable and risk averse to wait until latter weeks to wager larger sums of money. Even then, risk is risk.

We researched offshore books and none of them are reliable. Not a single one.

As for college ATS wagers this year that have been posted before games (not counting parlays), I am hitting right at 66%. I should hit between 69-71% by season's end.

Quote: lilredrooster

Excuse me sir, but I don't quite understand this post. If you bet with and against all of steeldco's picks on parlays isn't the underlying message that you thought his picks had no value at all? What would be the difference between this and betting all for or all against a series of random picks? Are you saying that this method gave you an edge? How so? I'm not being sarcastic. I'm thinking I might be missing something and would like to learn.

All good, I was a huge fan of steeldco and his picks, sorry he no longer posts. If yo you have time and are so inclined check mlb posts by steeldco, you can go back a few years but his last posts will do.
He on a number of occasions referred to this is a number of days that should be apart of his losing streak or historical win streak etc. I simply captured that information and used to my advantage, but I just covered the bet both ways ie I would use all day selections on one ticket to win they usually underdogs let’s say return was $2:2x2:5x2:7x2:8x2:7x3:5x3:4=$1335:00 per $1 outlay, if all 7 legs won. Example $10:00 bet equals $13350:00 return. The opposition 7 legs return $66:00 per $1 outlay, if the 7 underdogs lost and all favourite wins you get a wi win day if one underdogs loses you get nill return that day on both tickets.
I used to mix and match the 7 legs day ie 1x7 leg underdogs , 1 x 7 leg fav, maybe 3x4 leg tickets 2x5 legs 5x2/or3 legs , usually bet on each individual selection as well as you may get 4 wins and a return at least. etc each day has a set budget x 150day season =bank roll Example this case $200 total outlay for day coverage of 12 different bets aiming for $13000 plus return. Thanks steeldco.
Some days only 2selections posted or no selections , sometimes 12 posted always sticks to budget , can scale down on 2selection days. It’s hard to consistently land 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 leg bets they do come in so worth the outlay.
Objective to make a return near to outlay if not more and to always be in the running for the big return in this example $1330 per$1 outlay
I have this return higher and lower on a number of occasions re steeldco tips for last few years. So huge respect for the mans time and effort he spent in putting his posts here. Not as good this year as steeldco stopped posting mid season.
I worked on premises that in a years time if anyone looked at mlb history all you ever see is who won or lost that game match up not why no reason given just x beat team z. So if steeldco could come up with 7 selections ( example) out of the twenty games or so played that day for whatever criteria floored logic/criteria or not I would bet on that because there HAS to be a result. It presented to me a limited pool of selections that had some merit behind it, as I know nothing of baseball and have no biases to any team I just needed to come up with my betting method and so on.
I think there are 58 college games this weekend although there can be draws in football you can make your own conclusions re ticket selections for so many variations.
So narrow the field to 4-10 selections and you can make cash one way or the other via tips posted.
Kind regards.

Same idea works for first round women tennis, ice hockey USA and squash games. You get two results win or lose. No draws. Kind regards

Quote: JoelDeze

We researched offshore books and none of them are reliable. Not a single one.

As for college ATS wagers this year that have been posted before games (not counting parlays), I am hitting right at 66%. I should hit between 69-71% by season's end.

Good luck Joel. Many on here may not grasp that you are spreading your "picks" across various forums, changing the teams, which allows you to offer "wagers" where you can't lose any money. Wherever you hit 65 % plus you can convince people to send you money for the next set of picks. It's very ingenious as was alluded to earlier in regards to a Super Bowl pick of both sides different places. I'm surprised more people haven't thought of this, or have they?

As for offshore books, there are in fact some which pay winners. I won't name them but they exist. Your $6000.usd example is really chicken feed in the underworld of gambling. However, keep enjoying the fantasy, as said, we all enjoy it. Most of us anyhow.

Quote: JoelDeze

It doesn't work that way but I can understand that you may not have as much knowledge in this particular area so it's understandable to make those types of assumptions.

First, as I live out of the State of Nevada, you can't use messenger bettors in Vegas. It's illegal. They recently created a new law allowing Entity Wagering but that's another discussion altogether. In order to allow multiple people to move around in Vegas, my partners and I created an LLC and assigned everyone a percentage ownership. This allows everyone the ability to travel and wager on behalf of the company. Entity Wagering is different and requires a buy-in. We also had to announce ourselves to the books we operate within.

Second, you can't communicate across state lines to help someone make a wager on your behalf. It violates the electronic communications act, which is also illegal. This makes it difficult as the people going would be isolated and have to work on prior instructions. If a line moves, they have to be savvy enough to make adjustments. It takes 2 to 3 people to adequately cover the distance between books.

Third, the biggest issue with wagering any large monetary size is that it is highly likely that you will be limited. The first time we attempted to make an $6k wager with Cantor Gaming in 2013 we were instantly limited to $800 dollars. Some of that may be how much action they took in, or the fact that they were just cautious and didn't know us very well. We had to run around and spread the wager out across 5 books and we never reached our maximum cap at risk that week. This literally means running because you can't just grab a cab, even on small distances. It would take forever. And, we aren't going to trust electronic wagers on any scale.

Fourth, the amount of money accepted for college football is trivial compared to wagers taken in for the NFL. As we primarily work with College Football (see 3 above) it is difficult to reach CAP, regardless of limits set.

Fifth, counting expenses from the trip in and out of Vegas, we have to work out of a hole right from the start. Expense management is tough and many people overlook it.

Sixth, from a probability outlook, using a data driven system, it is much more profitable and risk averse to wait until latter weeks to wager larger sums of money. Even then, risk is risk.

We researched offshore books and none of them are reliable. Not a single one.

As for college ATS wagers this year that have been posted before games (not counting parlays), I am hitting right at 66%. I should hit between 69-71% by season's end.

Quote: NokTang

Good luck Joel. Many on here may not grasp that you are spreading your "picks" across various forums, changing the teams, which allows you to offer "wagers" where you can't lose any money. Wherever you hit 65 % plus you can convince people to send you money for the next set of picks. It's very ingenious as was alluded to earlier in regards to a Super Bowl pick of both sides different places. I'm surprised more people haven't thought of this, or have they?

As for offshore books, there are in fact some which pay winners. I won't name them but they exist. Your $6000.usd example is really chicken feed in the underworld of gambling. However, keep enjoying the fantasy, as said, we all enjoy it. Most of us anyhow.

Those are serious allegations, Noktang. I think you need to post one or more links to other forum posts where JoelDeze is doing this. If this is speculation on your part, it is trolling, and this will be your only warning. If it is factual and provable, there will be consequences. Thank you.

Quote: JoelDeze

It doesn't work that way but I can understand that you may not have as much knowledge in this particular area so it's understandable to make those types of assumptions.

First, as I live out of the State of Nevada, you can't use messenger bettors in Vegas. It's illegal. They recently created a new law allowing Entity Wagering but that's another discussion altogether. In order to allow multiple people to move around in Vegas, my partners and I created an LLC and assigned everyone a percentage ownership. This allows everyone the ability to travel and wager on behalf of the company. Entity Wagering is different and requires a buy-in. We also had to announce ourselves to the books we operate within.

Second, you can't communicate across state lines to help someone make a wager on your behalf. It violates the electronic communications act, which is also illegal. This makes it difficult as the people going would be isolated and have to work on prior instructions. If a line moves, they have to be savvy enough to make adjustments. It takes 2 to 3 people to adequately cover the distance between books.

Third, the biggest issue with wagering any large monetary size is that it is highly likely that you will be limited. The first time we attempted to make an $6k wager with Cantor Gaming in 2013 we were instantly limited to $800 dollars. Some of that may be how much action they took in, or the fact that they were just cautious and didn't know us very well. We had to run around and spread the wager out across 5 books and we never reached our maximum cap at risk that week. This literally means running because you can't just grab a cab, even on small distances. It would take forever. And, we aren't going to trust electronic wagers on any scale.

Fourth, the amount of money accepted for college football is trivial compared to wagers taken in for the NFL. As we primarily work with College Football (see 3 above) it is difficult to reach CAP, regardless of limits set.

Fifth, counting expenses from the trip in and out of Vegas, we have to work out of a hole right from the start. Expense management is tough and many people overlook it.

Sixth, from a probability outlook, using a data driven system, it is much more profitable and risk averse to wait until latter weeks to wager larger sums of money. Even then, risk is risk.

We researched offshore books and none of them are reliable. Not a single one.

As for college ATS wagers this year that have been posted before games (not counting parlays), I am hitting right at 66%. I should hit between 69-71% by season's end.

You are naive if you think any of this is enforced in Nevada. I've been in the industry over 15 years, and groups of runners identify themselves, and get told their limits from the start, to be allowed to bet at the books they need to be betting at. We're not talking about Sam's Town here, we're talking about the top books in Nevada.

The Prop Swap website already toes this line, but literally no one cares. And to a lesser degree the thriving proxy contest picks services for Las Vegas football contests. EVERYONE knows there are groups of runners throughout Las Vegas placing wagers, it's not a secret, and no one is hiding it. It's crazy for someone hitting 71% and betting five figures that you don't have this set up.

There are multiple reliable sportsbooks offshore not only from experience being in this industry for years, but also verified by the Wizard himself and endorsed on this very family of websites.

It's amazing how truly clueless you are on this industry Joel. It really is.

Oh, and for the record, you didn't get limited to $800 on a college football game at Cantor Gaming. Believe it or not, that's probably the silliest thing you typed in that post of total nonsense.

Quote: SM777

There are multiple reliable sportsbooks offshore not only from experience being in this industry for years, but also verified by the Wizard himself and endorsed on this very family of websites.

You can bet with williamhill online, from basically any place on earth. Their limits are high enough for most. I don't know if they are "offshore" but as Secretary Clinton said "what difference does it make?".

Quote: beachbumbabs

Those are serious allegations, Noktang. I think you need to post one or more links to other forum posts where JoelDeze is doing this. If this is speculation on your part, it is trolling, and this will be your only warning. If it is factual and provable, there will be consequences. Thank you.

Please just delete the remarks. While I stated what is obvious to many, I defer to your opinion and ask that it just be deleted. Thank you and kind regards.

Quote: lilredrooster

You and others often imply that if you have an edge in sports betting you should be making big bucks. It just doesn't work like that. I'm sure there are hundreds who beat sports but never bet or make big bucks. They just don't have that tolerance for risk. You can call them wimpy if you want. There are poker players who win but never bet big or fork over the 10K or whatever it takes to enter the big tournaments. There are blackjack APs who have a top bet of $150 and there are those who have a top bet of 2K. If a person is profitable long term I give them some credit for that. I don't demand that they prove their greatness by showing me their mansion in the hills.

I get what you are saying, however, this is a different situation. This isn't just some guy messing around. This is the great JoelDeze we are talking about, a seasoned sports bettor, tout(IMO) and gambler who would be considered the #1 college football picker in the world. (didn't he supposedly hit 77% out of 500 games or something like that?). He basically has a license to print money. Yet, all I seem to hear is a bunch of excuses why he can't.

Betting Sports seems to be what he does, he even has a website and software service committed to sports betting.

Let's take a look at some of the things he has said in posts.

Quote:

Day One: I won $3,900
Day Two: I won $2,570
Day Three: I won $900
Day Four: I won $400
Day Five: I won $200
---------------------------------
I ended up with +$6,200 for the night and stayed at the casino for a total of 1 hour, 45 min or so.
-----------------------------------
I'm up $11,400 this week
------------------------------
I cashed out $3k last year.
----------------------------------------
I was up to $5,900 in 40 min time. I lost the $900 topper and left with $5k.
--------------------------------------------
All in all I finished with $4.4k-$4.5k in a little over 3.5 hours.
----------------------------------------------------------------
I ended up making $4100 this week.
-----------------------------------------
Over the course of the last 5 weeks I've won close to $8,000 net now.
--------------------------------

in Vegas, my partners and I created an LLC and assigned everyone a percentage ownership.
-------------------------------------
I have a photographic memory and extremely high perception.

All this but the guy can't figure out how to get more action in?

Yes excuses excuses, a common problem with gambling, the answer is very simple. Don’t brag, keep it to yourself. Usually it’s a sign of insecurity, lack of self esteem, or just another fool.
Perhaps a new rule should be made regarding posts of tipping for any league on the planet on this site. List the selections only. Your post will be deleted if you the tipper make any comments at all, other than thanks or good luck.
If anyone replies with any questions or anything else they get barred, and comments deleted. Only reply comments accepted will be thanks or no thanks.
It would work but a lot of people are going to have to get a life mind you there’s other things to complain about.
Kind regards

Week 8:



No notes. Don't have time. Enjoy.

Quote: JoelDeze

Week 8:



No notes. Don't have time. Enjoy.

Thanks

Joel are you an Aussie ?you have a dry sense of humour . Cheers and good luck ha ha

Quote: JoelDeze

Week 8:



No notes. Don't have time. Enjoy.

no thanks

Quote: JoelDeze

Week 8:



No notes. Don't have time. Enjoy.

Thanks for posting. But please don't report a percentage of wins ever. Most of your picks lay more juice than the usual 11-10. If these picks hit 55%, usually a good win rate, you would lose money.

Also unusual that the great majority of your picks are favorites. Just an observation.

Quote: AxelWolf

I get what you are saying, however, this is a different situation. This isn't just some guy messing around. This is the great JoelDeze we are talking about, a seasoned sports bettor, tout(IMO) and gambler who would be considered the #1 college football picker in the world. (didn't he supposedly hit 77% out of 500 games or something like that?). He basically has a license to print money. Yet, all I seem to hear is a bunch of excuses why he can't.

Betting Sports seems to be what he does, he even has a website and software service committed to sports betting.

Let's take a look at some of the things he has said in posts.




All this but the guy can't figure out how to get more action in?

You copied posts from me regarding craps and 3 card poker for one particular week into a sports discussion thread? Reaching?

As a rebuttal for "casino" related topics, I am in the negative overall. I am not an AP casino player and do not believe any system can win at casino games. It is all based on variance.

Please stay on topic. I would also ask a moderator to review Axels post as he is mixing information related to casino topics into a sports thread. The two have nothing to do with each other. The posts he copied relating to the day by day have nothing to do with sporting wagers. Also, casinos are not books.

Thanks.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: JoelDeze

Week 8:



No notes. Don't have time. Enjoy.

Thanks for posting. But please don't report a percentage of wins ever. Most of your picks lay more juice than the usual 11-10. If these picks hit 55%, usually a good win rate, you would lose money.

Also unusual that the great majority of your picks are favorites. Just an observation.

Joel would never buy points, lay more than -110, and not alert anyone.... Oh wait.....

Quote: JoelDeze

You copied posts from me regarding craps and 3 card poker for one particular week into a sports discussion thread? Reaching?

As a rebuttal for "casino" related topics, I am in the negative overall. I am not an AP casino player and do not believe any system can win at casino games. It is all based on variance.

Please stay on topic. I would also ask a moderator to review Axels post as he is mixing information related to casino topics into a sports thread. The two have nothing to do with each other. The posts he copied relating to the day by day have nothing to do with sporting wagers. Also, casinos are not books.

Thanks.

Ya, I should have made that more clear for people who don't know your history, sorry if I caused any confusion. I was not trying to insinuate those numbers represented sports. My post was directed at lilredrooster who brought up other forms of gambling.

Quote: lilredrooster

You and others often imply that if you have an edge in sports betting you should be making big bucks. It just doesn't work like that. I'm sure there are hundreds who beat sports but never bet or make big bucks. They just don't have that tolerance for risk. You can call them wimpy if you want. There are poker players who win but never bet big or fork over the 10K or whatever it takes to enter the big tournaments. There are blackjack APs who have a top bet of $150 and there are those who have a top bet of 2K. If a person is profitable long term I give them some credit for that. I don't demand that they prove their greatness by showing me their mansion in the hills.

One of the points I was trying to make(assuming that's all true) is that you don't seem very risk-averse. It's mindboggling to me that it took you this long to come to the conclusion that no betting system works.

I would also ask a moderator to review all of JoelDeze's posts, they seem to have a grooming vibe that may entice some gullible dreamers.

I'm thinking there's a lot of harrassment of Joel on this thread that must be based on prior grievances and/or personal animosity, but is not justified by what he has said on this thread. The only persons who are notifying us that Joel offers a service-for-fee are the group of people that are expressing contempt for him.

And I think that Joel's critics are underestimating the level of sophistication of people in this forum. WOV is not a forum full of inexperienced, gullible wanna-be gamblers and we don't need your protection. IMO, many of the people reading this thread are as sharp and experienced (or more so) than those of you who are criticizing Joel. And many of us do not appreciate this seemingly unprovoked schoolyard taunting and hostile hectoring.

To Joel's Critics: We've heard your criticism of Joel - you've repeated it over and over. We have been adequately warned, thank you. Please be at peace and understand that most of us are perfectly capable of evaluating the quality of what Joel posts. Please let him post his analyses and picks, if that's what he wants to do. Whether someone is a fool or Albert Einstein, I personally welcome anyone's posts if they are earnestly presenting their analysis of some gambling topic.

To be clear: I know nothing about JoelDeze and am NOT endorsing him. I am asking for a less combative tone in this discussion.

Bravo GordonM888

Quote: gordonm888

I'm thinking there's a lot of harrassment of Joel on this thread that must be based on prior grievances and/or personal animosity, but is not justified by what he has said on this thread. The only persons who are notifying us that Joel offers a service-for-fee are the group of people that are expressing contempt for him.

And I think that Joel's critics are underestimating the level of sophistication of people in this forum. WOV is not a forum full of inexperienced, gullible wanna-be gamblers and we don't need your protection. IMO, many of the people reading this thread are as sharp and experienced (or more so) than those of you who are criticizing Joel. And many of us do not appreciate this seemingly unprovoked schoolyard taunting and hostile hectoring.

To Joel's Critics: We've heard your criticism of Joel - you've repeated it over and over. We have been adequately warned, thank you. Please be at peace and understand that most of us are perfectly capable of evaluating the quality of what Joel posts. Please let him post his analyses and picks, if that's what he wants to do. Whether someone is a fool or Albert Einstein, I personally welcome anyone's posts if they are earnestly presenting their analysis of some gambling topic.

To be clear: I know nothing about JoelDeze and am NOT endorsing him. I am asking for a less combative tone in this discussion.

Starting a new thread doesn't erase the lying about vig on bets placed, declaring winners after results are in for games not posted, changing teams in parlays during the game, and many other infractions all in an attempt to get people of this great forum to sign up for his scam.

Oh well, Joel started a new thread. He's all of a sudden never tried to deceive the forum with his sports bets. That's how you think it should work? Well, I hate to break it to you, but it doesn't work like that. Those things still exist, and very recently, and in this very thread.

First, disclaimer: I have nothing to say about the OP in particular, now or in context of past record, since I haven't looked back sufficiently to have any sensible basis to form my own opinion on that, and I don't plan to. So this is not necessarily commenting specifically about that, or intended as advocating a judgment of this individual and his handiwork. But, in general:

1. This is a forum, meaning a thread for the explicit purpose of inviting discussion and critique, no matter who likes it or doesn't. Leastwise I sure as all Hell hope it still is. Not a blog, which is where some with tender sensibilities seem to want to be instead. There are a lot of those around, so go have fun chanting at a Buddha in the echo chamber, and bring some incense or scented candles. Maybe the OP will decide it suits him to do this in a blog, which he might choose to limit to his narrative, with or without also participating in an open discussion thread. Or not. But if THIS stuff here bugs someone overmuch, they REALLY don't want to ever see a halfway decent quality poker discussion forum where people go and intentionally open their play to rigorously withering scrutiny, in order to get better; let alone ever venture into a more serious sort of sports betting forum.

2....

Quote: gordonm888

...<SNIP>...

... WOV is not a forum full of inexperienced, gullible wanna-be gamblers and... <SNIP>...

Yes it is.

Quote: beachmonkey

any money management system for this win lose actual games
1)nb.wwllwwwwwlwllwllw. 30/04/15
2)no bet{nb} lwwwlwwwllwwwllwlwwlllwwlwwww. 30/04/15
3)nb.wlwlllwwlllwlwlwllwlwww. 30/04/15
4)nb.lllwwwwlwwwllwwllwwwlwl.30/04/15
5)nb wlwlwwlwwlwwlllllllwwlllllw 29/04/15
6)nb llllwwwwwwlwlllwlllwwwwwlw 29/04/15
7)nb wlwlwwlwlwllllwwwwwlw 29/04/15
8)nb wwlwwwllwwlllwlwwlwl 29/04/15
9)nb lllwwwllwwllwwllll 29/04/15
10)nb lwwlllwllwlwwllwwllllwwwlw 11/05/15 13.40

...and, speaking in general it is just about the most gullible least scrutinizing forum host for a particular genre, the tout "picks" subspecies of system advocates, that I can think of, outside of the notorious stench of the shill sites that are business partners with a stable of touts, advancing their sleazy business model in part by suppressing any potential discouraging words scrutinizing the constantly morphing virtual character concoctions supplying 'expert' sports-themed glorified-horoscope picks to those feeble minded enough to imagine anything like that ever ends well. A significant portion of folks on this forum don't even know the basics of how to count results effectively, what metrics are relevant & useful, and what's not, to even get much of a clue how it might really be going, and why & how any of that would matter, and the critical matter of rigorously honest record keeping formats.

I might join the view of some that protecting people from themselves may not be productive, but maybe for a different reason, in that it probably has no lasting benefit for those determined to latch onto fantasies. They'll always find another, and another, and yet another way to puke their money. And a series of temporary fantasies may even be implicitly what they really want, and why a particular sort tends get angry at any attempts at an injection of reality. But y'all don't get to shut people up, no matter how it grates on your feelings about floating in the clouds with Peter Pan & Tinker Belle.

Quote: DrawingDead

But y'all don't get to shut people up, no matter how it grates on your feelings about floating in the clouds with Peter Pan & Tinker Belle.

Actually, right now I am, in fact, blocking SM777, Axelwolf and NokTang so I do not have to see their posts when I scroll through this thread.

I have thanked SM777, Axelwolf and Noktang for their criticisms -and I was sincere, because I appreciated their input. I have an open mind and appreciate information. But they are repeating themselves and I find it tedious to read repetitious arguments, especially from angry people. And I find its much easier to navigate this thread to find something I want if it is not cluttered with their posts.

And Tinker says Hi! and Peter asked me to say Kissy-Kissy! to you.

Quote: gordonm888

Actually, right now I am, in fact, blocking SM777, Axelwolf and NokTang so I do not have to see their posts when I scroll through this thread.

Thank God!

Thanks drawing dead I must be the luckiest gullible wanna be on the planet as my SOLE source of income is derived from gambling. Gee I have no idea how I’ve managed these last four years or so relying solely on luck. Thanks for pointing that out to me and I’d best go get me a day job lickety slick , thanks big boss for having such a level humble opinion of yourself. You know I have taken so much more value in improving my education from your very wise post that I will totally dismiss anything I have learned from what I had assumed where other qualified posters
Sorry axel wolf, steeldco, that don guy and the many others . I’m going to have to purge any insights I’ve gleamed from you all as I can see anything you all have had to offer is redundant , as per drawing dead’s all knowing ability to to precisely access another unknown person .
Is there anything else you can tell me drawing dead? Am I going be gay? Will I have children? Now that I’m looking for a 9-5 job what would my best choice of profession be ? should I buy that Range Rover I have my eye on ?
You are obviously God incarnate and who are we to even think that we can exist without verbose diatribe.
Do tell .
Kind regards
P.s Administration if that’s considered an offence in reply I’m more than happy to take the ban. Cheers.

Drawing dead ,
Kind regards
P.s I’ll take a ban for that as well.