Lock of the century w/ Analysis
Quote: billryanI had the over 26 with the Nets. Was hoping Jeremy Lin would be able to play at least 50 games. He didn't last 50 minutes, as is out for the season. Frkn dreadlocks.
Nets have 15 wins halfway through. Problem is they may make some trades to move a couple of vets.
Talk about nailing this analysis. This might be Vegas' biggest miss in history. Of course it's not really vegas missing, all they care about is public sentiment and to try and get equal action on both sides, but nonetheless the numbers are more or less usually spot on.
What happened to bitcoin also since I called it to go lower? Where is it now, lower or higher? One problem with all of this though. Im cursed so it all balances out. No matter how good I am, I just end up equaling the average person. I've already accustomed myself to this.
Quote: mcallister3200How much money are you gonna make when the bulls win 25 games?
There is no way that he is a victim of his own thought processes. If he placed a wager, the curse effect would alter the outcome. Maybe he will start selling his predictions in China.
TWO BIG DOLLARS,,😙😁😁😁😁Quote: mcallister3200How much money are you gonna make when the bulls win 25 games?
Quote: RSRE BTC: You called for it to lose 50% of its value, IIRC, when it was at $14,000. It's at $13,450 right now.
I never gave a time-table of when it would drop half of its value. Just that it will. Patience.
That is totally irresponsible and inadequate. Time line is crucial of this kind of call.Quote: ZenKinGI never gave a time-table of when it would drop half of its value. Just that it will. Patience.
Quote: speedycrapThat is totally irresponsible and inadequate. Time line is crucial of this kind of call.
How many calls do you want? I called the time it would start going down after a massive outbreak from like 2k to 19k. I then was nice enough to also say how much it was gonna go down, and now you want the time it will take. Geez, tough crowd here. Most people wouldve just gave when it would stop going up and leave it at that.
Any more lock in the near future? I will be down there shortly. What about Super Bowl??
Quote: ZenKinGHow many calls do you want? I called the time it would start going down after a massive outbreak from like 2k to 19k. I then was nice enough to also say how much it was gonna go down, and now you want the time it will take. Geez, tough crowd here. Most people wouldve just gave when it would stop going up and leave it at that.
you never answered, how much are you going to win when they go over?
btw, obviously pix or it didnt happen.
Bulls are only 4 wins from going over, right and now kris dunn gets hurt, and bulls randomly blow 20 pt leads in 4th quartes, and get blown out every game? But heres the kicker, now they are saying they dont know when he will come back? Really? Go look at the injury. Yes he fell on his face and messed up his teeth, but guess what theyre saying now? Concussion protocol and out indefinitely. LOL. He didnt even fall on his head, he fell on his face. Its absolutely laughable, really is.
Vegas mafia buys these refs, players, or idk who else just to always be close to the number they gave out before the season started. Tell me the last time they had win total for a team completely miss by more than 10? They always keep it close for fan engagement and to induce more betting. This years bulls team was on pace to easily break through a vegas line of 21.5 wins, but now you get this random suspicious injury garbage that just happened and team randomly stops trying in the 4th quarter.
This pick will still go over and ill be right but this isnt about that and this is exactly why I dont bet sports. Its completely fixed and controlled by vegas behind the scenes. I have no money on this or ever do, i dont bet sports, this is my completely unbiased unemotional opinion about this and each and every year I notice things that just makes it top obvious.
I bet you the bulls end up winning only 7 of the last 35 games, whether someone else randomly gets hurt and gets put out of action for extended time for no reason, or the bulls coach randomly sits players out for the rest of the season, or they trade away players and get nothing in return, or they continue blowing huge 4th quarter leads out of no where. Something will happen and bulls will only go over by about 4-5 wins when it should easily be over by 15 wins+
Quote: ZenKinG
Vegas mafia buys these refs, players, or idk who else just to always be close to the number they gave out before the season started. Tell me the last time they had win total for a team completely miss by more than 10? They always keep it close for fan engagement and to induce more betting. This years bulls team was on pace to easily break through a vegas line of 21.5 wins, but now you get this random suspicious injury garbage that just happened and team randomly stops trying in the 4th quarter.
This pick will still go over and ill be right but this isnt about that and this is exactly why I dont bet sports. Its completely fixed and controlled by vegas behind the scenes. I have no money on this or ever do, i dont bet sports, this is my completely unbiased unemotional opinion about this and each and every year I notice things that just makes it top obvious.
I bet you the bulls end up winning only 7 of the last 35 games, whether someone else randomly gets hurt and gets put out of action for extended time for no reason, or the bulls coach randomly sits players out for the rest of the season, or they trade away players and get nothing in return, or they continue blowing huge 4th quarter leads out of no where. Something will happen and bulls will only go over by about 4-5 wins when it should easily be over by 15 wins+
In all seriousness, you are not well.
I know this won't get through to you. However, there isn't really a ton of money bet on NBA win totals. Different books might have different liabilities.
However, the cost of bribing NBA refs, who make good money, NBA players who make crazy money, plus the risk of all involved going to prison, probably exceeds the liability on totals bets by a great deal.
Especially something like paying a player to fake an injury. His injury history will be a factor in his next contract, which will be for several million dollars a year even if he is mediocre. Believing this is totally nuts.
This total disconnect from reality and common sense, coming from an intelligent person, is just one reason your post suggests significant psychological problems. These problems are the real Chinese prison decks and game fixing bookies operating in your life.
Quote: RigondeauxIn all seriousness, you are not well....This total disconnect from reality and common sense, coming from an intelligent person, is just one reason your post suggests significant psychological problems.
I agree with your argument against this conspiracy theory, but the way you said it crosses the line. Three-day suspension.
Quote: WizardI agree with your argument against this conspiracy theory, but the way you said it crosses the line. Three-day suspension.
His posts do suggest significant psychological problems. Paranoia, delusions of persecution, etc. He may have an untreated mental illness. He would do well to get a complete mental health evaluation.
But I will say this.... although I dont believe vegas rigs games, I believe games can be rigged. Tim Donaghy 'rig' a bell?? Where there is big money at stake, anything is possible....anything!
Quote: sabreHis posts do suggest significant psychological problems. Paranoia, delusions of persecution, etc. He may have an untreated mental illness. He would do well to get a complete mental health evaluation.
Am I alone in thinking the OPs story is not going to end well?
Quote: billryanAm I alone in thinking the OPs story is not going to end well?
When you say OP... are you referring to ZenKing? Is he a real person? Serious concerns.
A lot of these games involving teams obviously not going to the playoffs are going to be really low quality spectacles.
I wouldn't dream of paying to watch some of these games or even watch if its free.
http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2018/02/21/dallas-mavericks-owner-mark-cuban-fined-600g-for-tanking-comments.html
Seems obvious to me that the bad teams that win the most should get the best chance at high picks. Then you'd have something akin to soccer, with the bottom teams playing to avoid relegation, which keeps their games exciting. Imagine how important those games would have been when LeBron was entering the draft.
I think most serious fantasy leagues do something similar, where there is an incentive to finish as high as possible, even for the teams near last place.
Maybe there's something I'm not thinking of.
the Denver Nuggets, are to me, the strangest NBA team I've ever heard about although I don't follow the NBA that closely.
anyway, they're 23-7 at home and 9-19 on the road. I don't ever recall seeing a record like that (% home/% road) even among college teams.
Quote: lilredroosterright now the Rockets are ahead of the Warriors - not by much but still very surprising.
the Denver Nuggets, are to me, the strangest NBA team I've ever heard about although I don't follow the NBA that closely.
anyway, they're 23-7 at home and 9-19 on the road. I don't ever recall seeing a record like that (% home/% road) even among college teams.
When I was a Nuggets fan, they'd often have ridiculous splits. They would run teams into the ground, due to the thinner air. Nuggets and Rockies generally have these advantages. Bronco's, as well.
Quote: billryanWhen I was a Nuggets fan, they'd often have ridiculous splits. They would run teams into the ground, due to the thinner air. Nuggets and Rockies generally have these advantages. Bronco's, as well.
A bigger advantage is when a pacific coast team has to play the 2nd of a back to back game in Denver. Denver's winning percentage for those games is over 90%! The play does not come into that often, but the Warriors were the latest victims of this trend a month ago.
Tonight was a tanking kinda night as the equally tanking Kings, Suns, Grizzlies, Hawks, and Magic all lost. Somehow Dallas (who’s owner just admitted they are losing on purpose) managed to win. I’m sure the players will be reprimanded. Poor Dirk stuck around on this team , and took less money to do so , just to end his career as part of a mess.
The lock of the century looks good as the Bulls need only go 2-20 over these last 22 games to reach 22 wins. Although ya never know
Quote: VegasriderIs it really worth it to make an even money bet tying up your funds for the entire season. I don't mind betting futures as long as I get a nice return. I remember a guy r back in Vegas bet $1000 for the Rams to win the Super bowl at 250:1. That was the year with Kurt Warner but I recalled he may hedged some of his bets.
That's a pretty simple, "Opportunity Cost," question such that the answer is going to depend on both the person as well as his/her perceived advantage (expected profit) on that vs. whatever else the money could be doing. If the person believes that he wlll not have the opportunity to turn amount of money x into amount of money y over that course of time any other way, by expectation, then it's probably worth it. If the person believes there is a greater ROI to be had elsewhere over that course of time, then it is not worth it.
The bulls were 19-28 and are now 20-41. Kris dunn goes down for 2-3 weeks and we start losing every game. Lavine comes back and only cares about his own stats and further destroyed the team. Now after all-star break coach and management have called it quits. Let that sink in about how good this call was. They were 19-28 with the over/under at 21.5. Thats more than half the season to get 3 wins until injuries and tanking begun.
Bulls still only need 2 wins in the last 19 games and im guessing they will only get about 4 or 5 wins in these remaining 19 games. Lets hope my bulls get a top 3 draft pick. Promising draft this year.
I also got another 'lock' nba future with analysis on the way. Be prepared.
Quote: VegasriderLock of the century was the other night
lol
Quote: VegasriderLock of the century was the other night when Nevada played UNLV laying 2 in a rivalry revenge game. Last month UNLV was getting 9 points playing at Nevada who was without the conference leading scorer Caleb Martin. I took UNLV on the ML. Bunch of trash talking by the Rebels after the game. This time around my money was on Nevada. A nonsweat game and blew UNLV out in their own building. Didn't need to wait an entire NBA season to collect
Your record on picking games the day after they’re played is impressive
I think this guy already had the money spent before it was over.
The "tanking" Bulls could not out tank the "tanking" Mavericks tonight.
Quote: ZenKinGLooks like the lock of the century will indeed hit. What a surprise.... I also nailed it on the head of the bulls possibly tanking behind the scenes both in my original post as well as in my recent posts about going the rest of the season with barely any wins, which is exactly whats going on now resting starters.
The bulls were 19-28 and are now 20-41. Kris dunn goes down for 2-3 weeks and we start losing every game. Lavine comes back and only cares about his own stats and further destroyed the team. Now after all-star break coach and management have called it quits. Let that sink in about how good this call was. They were 19-28 with the over/under at 21.5. Thats more than half the season to get 3 wins until injuries and tanking begun.
Bulls still only need 2 wins in the last 19 games and im guessing they will only get about 4 or 5 wins in these remaining 19 games. Lets hope my bulls get a top 3 draft pick. Promising draft this year.
I also got another 'lock' nba future with analysis on the way. Be prepared.
Remind us again how much you wagered?
Quote: ZenKinGLooks like the lock of the century will indeed hit.
your winning one bet and then crowing about it is effing lame. you need to post 50 bets and let everyone see what your record is.
if you win by a significant margin the I'll give you your due credit. one, two, three games is nothing at all.
get real dude.
How does one have 50 locks of the century?Quote: lilredroosteryour winning one bet and then crowing about it is effing lame. you need to post 50 bets and let everyone see what your record is.
if you win by a significant margin the I'll give you your due credit. one, two, three games is nothing at all.
get real dude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAqf6BzABLA
I really wish they'd bring this back.
"Stone Cold Lock of the Century...of the Week."Quote: Mission146By having a, "Stone Cold Lock of the Century...of the Week."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAqf6BzABLA
I really wish they'd bring this back.
"of the week"
I love it.
Quote: michael99000Your record on picking games the day after they’re played is impressive
True, I guess I need to start sharing. Not too often I really love the bet based on information and see that the betting line is way off (from my POV)
The pick to win the whole thing is the Warriors at only -160 and if you're patient maybe even less if the Rockets keep winning and the Warriors stumble towards the end of the season. This will get the public on the Rocket bandwagon only for them to choke it up in the playoffs again. The Rockets match up the best with the warriors out of anyone in the league, but they still don't have enough to stop the Warriors.
The NBA is all about match-ups, but because of the Warriors sheer overload of talent, the Rockets will have no one to guard either Curry, Durant, or Thompson. You can't double team everyone and one of them will always have a mismatch. There will also always be someone open. Rockets also have no bench to match up come the end of quarters. I'm not even sure Rockets get to the conference finals and get past OKC or a healthy Minnesota team. Not to mention, Rockets will not win primarily firing away 3s in a 7-game series as has been proven in the past by other similar teams usually coached by the same Rockets coach, D'antoni. As history shows us, every team that relies on 3-point shooting never wins a championship. You can say the Warriors have been the exception, but they also are a very underrated defensive team, which the other teams never are and they also have the best shooting players the game has ever seen. Rockets play no defense and don't have near the shooting capability of the Warriors. All the people betting on the Rockets to win are nothing but bandwagon fans riding the wave only to see disappointment come playoff time.
I suggest everyone waits a little longer for the line to drop further to about -140 by season's end. If it can get to around -120 or -140 for the Warriors, heavy money should be bet as it's very high +EV. The Rockets hype will only get bigger and the public will keep putting more money on them thereby driving the Warriors down hopefully to -120 or -140. But even at -160 it's still a very good bet. The risk is always a major injury(knock on wood), but that's the price we pay to bet these futures.
Warriors for the win. Thank me later.
Quote: GWAECurious how much you will put on this lock. Hopefully it is greater than you put on the others.
This is just a solid +EV bet, that's all. Locks of the Century don't come around too often. Sorry all of you missed out on the bulls.
Quote: dglscorriganFor the LOCK of the century, a second mortgage should have been the minimum bet. Was it ???
Low blow. I'm assuming one would need a first mortgage before a second.
If the Warriors don't represent the West in the finals, the team from the East wins.
Western teams are much better but the road is harder.
Quote: ZenKinGThis is just a solid +EV bet, that's all. Locks of the Century don't come around too often. Sorry all of you missed out on the bulls.
I can't see any future bet that spans over the course of an entire season as a lock. Any future bet is considered action once the season begins and you could come up with all sorts of crazy scenarios that could spoil your bet. Your team could die in a plane crash, players strike, shortened season, etc. Highly unlikely but the possibility is there. Unlike other bets where if the game isn't played or isnt completed the action is off or refunded.
Quote: VegasriderI can't see any future bet that spans over the course of an entire season as a lock. Any future bet is considered action once the season begins and you could come up with all sorts of crazy scenarios that could spoil your bet. Your team could die in a plane crash, players strike, shortened season, etc. Highly unlikely but the possibility is there. Unlike other bets where if the game isn't played or isnt completed the action is off or refunded.
I wouldn’t consider something to need to be 100% in order to call it a “lock”.
I’ve read through many of the Sportsbook rules as to what counts as “action”, like at least X minutes played, the initial bell (boxing), same day but different time OK, same week but same location OK, or whatever, etc. but I’ve never read any for futures, or else I skipped over them or didn’t pay attention to them. Do sportsbooks really not have a guideline for what constitutes “action” on futures?
