Quote: Mission146It is done, the Rules of this game are the Rules of this bet. Since Wizard has default Picks in place, he can never have an 0-5 week.
I don't know if you knew about his Default Picks and were hoping he could No Pick himself into an 0-5 week. If you didn't know that such can't happen, I'll give you one chance to drop the bet. I'm all for this bet, myself, he runs 60% even using the occasional set of defaults.
Bet is made. I am very happy and consider the bet an AP move on my part. If Mike truly could run 60% he'd be a multimillionaire by now. Assuming he makes 80 selections, he must make a record of 49-31 to win. 48-32 to push. I would bet substantially more but feel like I'd be taking advantage.....
Quote: EdCollinsMission, I'm willing to offer you the same exact same bet the SOOPOO is offering you, for any amount up to $100.00. (I will risk as much as $200.00 to your $100.00.)
So let it be written, so let it be done. $100.
Quote: SOOPOOBet is made. I am very happy and consider the bet an AP move on my part. If Mike truly could run 60% he'd be a multimillionaire by now. Assuming he makes 80 selections, he must make a record of 49-31 to win. 48-32 to push. I would bet substantially more but feel like I'd be taking advantage.....
As with all of us, Mike has the benefit of picking against stale lines. The lines get posted on Thursdays and never change, what that means for Mike is that he can bet against line movements that have already happened. We can assume that said movements have happened for a reason.
For example, let's say that NE was -6 and got posted Thursday but Brady AND Garoppolo both get hurt in practice and the line on NE drops down to -2. Mike can take the opposing team at +6 because the lines for this game do not change when they have been posted. That's an extreme example, but same general idea.
Like I said, I like my side of the bet. He is at over 60% considering every Pick he has ever made on this game.
His lifetime record is 272-169 for a winning percentage of 61.678%, that's lifetime. He has been at 60%+ 3 of 5 seasons. The numbers, limited though they are, are technically on my side for an Even Money bet. Getting 2:1 is a no-brainer.
Thanks.Quote: Mission146So let it be written, so let it be done. $100.
After thinking about it, and after determining what I believe is my edge, I'm willing to bet more, if you desire. (Hey, we only live once, right?)
Think about it and let me know.
In terms of payments, payment has now been fully satisfied by eleven players, so we are up to thirteen if you include myself and WoN as paid by way of donation. In addition to that, there are five players who have committed to paying via Personal Check, and I believe all five of those players will. Effectively, that puts us at sixteen (or eighteen including myself and WoN). They are just not on the paid list because I've not received the checks yet.
I'm starting to wonder if I sent the invites too early, perhaps people looked at them and said, "That's not for another three weeks," and that is why we only have thirteen/eighteen so far. Either way, on or around September 5th, I'll probably send a payment reminder ONLY to Members who have played the game in the past just to make sure they didn't intend to do it and forgot.
*Disclaimer: I'm not the best with NFL sports betting and rarely ever do it... So this is me basically donating $25 and 1 more person to the game =D. That being said, I'm of course going to still try to win!
I know Scottimus loves this game, so I'll poke him to join in the fun as I'm sure he will. Should be 2 more incoming then.
Mission, my feelings are hurt that I didn't get a PM from you =(.
I'll send you a PM with payment details later on.
You probably got a PM from me a few years ago and didn't play, though I can't guarantee it. I typically PM people who have played before, are active in the Discussion Thread from the previous year, or have been Members for roughly one year or less and have 10+ posts.
I'm sorry, but it's possible you may not have met any of those criteria for a PM.
We have sixteen paid in full participants, which is eighteen, if you count myself and Wizard of Nothing.
The timing of our hosting server people getting Doxxed really kind of (redacted) this (redacted) (omitted) (deleted) contest right (redacted) (deleted) (omitted) in the (redacted) (deleted).
I'm pretty upset.
The only thing I can really do is resend some PM reminders, just to make sure people get them. I'm not going to do this for the people who have never played before, though, because it reaches the point where I'd just be Spamming. It's just a shame, the timing, because I'm not even positive we'll end up with as many players as last year...and that's despite getting a few completely new players.
It's just a shame, but we'll see what can be salvaged.
I really wanted to get up to fifty participants, but I don't see how that's going to happen.
If I was convinced postponing it would, in fact, guarantee a bunch more players, I'd be okay with postponing it one or even TWO weeks. However, I'm not at all sure postponing it for any length of time will in fact give us a bunch more.Quote: Mission146What would the general opinion be on maybe postponing the first week of the contest until Week 2, or maybe having a Week 1, but giving new players (as of Week 2) a Skip Week even if they miss Week 1?
I really wanted to get up to fifty participants, but I don't see how that's going to happen.
I asked a few of my friends if they'd like to play, and they just didn't seem interested at all.
I think all you/we can do is just send out invites to as many members as possible over the next few days and hope for the best. But yea, it doesn't appear we will get 50 this year either, and that will be disappointing. Maybe next year.
I think you're right, we'll just have to accept whatever happens as whatever happens. I think all Personal Checks might be in, I'd have to check all the PM's to be sure, but I think I have all for those who committed to paying that way.
If anyone has mailed a Personal Check, please check the Official Thread to make sure your handle is on as paid and received. If it's not, I've not received your check and you should PM me, please.
I also just sent the PM to Romes, which I had done once, but apparently it didn't go through the first time.
Yea... but it certainly wouldn't be unfair if the rules were modified to allow all players two skipped weeks.Quote: Mission146I think you're probably right. What's your opinion of at least getting the thing rolling for Week 1, but announcing that anyone who would like to start in Week 2 would still have a Skip Week? I personally think that's probably a bad idea and completely unfair to whoever plays in Week 1.
Not sure if that is the best solution however. And again, the same question would remain... how many more players do we estimate we can bring in by delaying the contest, and is that additional number gained worth it?
Looking forward to additional responses. I'm probably okay either way.
(I'm also probably okay with an additional skip week not negating or requiring any change to our bet regarding The Wiz's final percentage.)
Any changes to the number of Skip Weeks would not change our bet since we both agree on that.
I guess we could modify the Rules to allow two Skip Weeks, but as you point out, I don't know that it would really add any players to the game. I did just create a thread on LCB inviting everyone over there to come and participate in this game if they like, so we'll see if that accomplishes anything. I suppose it would make sense for me to do the same at LSB.
I also think that I am much more in favor of just one Skip Week, too much in terms of strategy changes with two and that really defeats the purpose of having to pick well. The idea behind the strategic use of a Skip Week (currently) is that getting to potentially use it strategically is a bonus if the player has not used it as a result of accidentally missing a week. Further, it prevents people from being penalized for just missing one week.
I would say anyone is free to PM whoever they want, but I'm probably just going to resend to past players who have not committed to playing again this year, just in case they tried to get on and were unable to. "Cold," PM's have a really low effectiveness rate, one player per 50-100, on average, I haven't tracked the exact number.
Very low, anyway, and compounded by the fact that there is no way to send one PM to multiple recipients.
Quote: PlayYourCardsRightI'd rather leave the game as is, one skip week, and regret people missed out on such a good opportunity.
Agree.
I recruited my younger son who has informed me he 'venmoed' Mission146 $50 for our entry fees.
Imagine if all entries went 0-6 week 1. Then it would be an AP move to join after week 1. Axel was trying to figure out how many faux names he was going to create....
Starting in Week 2 is fine by me. Starting in Week 1 is fine by me. I think having more players would make this more interesting, BUT whatever.
That said, I would like to play again this year. I'm going to be mighty unhappy, though, if I can't access the forum to submit my picks.
But please do.count me in, and let's figure out how I should pay you.
Quote: RomesI'm just now seeing this thread... as I was wondering where the NFL games threads have been =P. 2 years ago I did one where you got a fake $10k bankroll and bet money each week. I liked that one but assuming that's no longer available, I'd like to do the picks game!
Romes - Glad you enjoyed the fake $10K bankroll game. I think I administered it for 2 or 3 years, and enjoyed it. I was really hoping to get some traction and get more players but there just wasn't much interest. So given that, and the amount of time to administer it, I discontinued it last year. If there is interest again, I could do something similar again in the future. Good luck with the picks game.
Quote: beachbumbabsI am having a lot of difficulty with the website.
That said, I would like to play again this year. I'm going to be mighty unhappy, though, if I can't access the forum to submit my picks.
But please do.count me in, and let's figure out how I should pay you.
LOL! And here I was contemplating whether you would act as my liaison if I continued my access woes. So much for that =p
-That seems neat if anyone wants to do that. We would probably copy/paste records into here, though, in case anything happened to the site.
2.) Making Picks
I'm going to be posting the Lines tomorrow. I think what I will do is send everyone who paid my E-Mail address. If you have any problems getting on, then you can E-Mail me your Picks until the server is more reliable.
The only sure-fire bet is that I will not be the winner.
Greetings!
The Week 1 Lines are as follows:
Jets (+9) @ Bills (-9) O/U 40
Falcons (-6.5) @ Bears (+6.5) O/U 48.5
Jaguars (+5.5) @ Texans (-5.5) O/U 39.5
Eagles (-1) @ Redskins (+1) O/U 48
Cardinals (-2) @ Lions (+2) O/U 48
Raiders (+2.5) @ Titans (-2.5) O/U 50.5
Ravens (+3) @ Bengals (-3) O/U 42.5
Steelers (-9.5) @ Browns (+9.5) O/U 46.5
Colts (+3.5) @ Rams (-3.5) O/U 41.5
Seahawks (+3) @ Packers (-3) O/U 51
Panthers (-5.5) @ 49ers (+5.5) O/U 47.5
Giants (+4) @ Cowboys (-4) O/U 47.5
Saints (+3) @ Vikings (-3) O/U 48
Chargers (+3) @ Broncos (-3) O/U 43
Please remember proper formatting of Picks (though you will only be politely corrected for the first two weeks. Also remember that picks are due by 10:00a.m. EST that is TEN O' CLOCK IN THE MORNING EASTERN STANDARD TIME. Not 10:01, 10:00. Due to controversy throughout the years I shall now be playing all Rules by the book.
Thanks to everyone who has paid/played so far, I really wish we'd have hit fifty, but I fear that is out of reach. We might at least get a few more by Sunday and maybe some Week 2 starters.
Greetings!
Here are a few quick things that I want to address as we are going into Week 1, mostly procedural stuff on my end:
1.) Number of Players
We had thirty players (28 paid) last year and we are down to twenty-five players (23 paid) so far this year, unfortunately, it is very unlikely that the increased donations will be triggered. Honestly, I would actually be pleased if we get up to thirty again.
I would like to think it has more to do with the server issues than any change in the popularity of the game itself. I want to say that this would be the first year ever that has seen a decline, (if it does) but that might not be right.
2.) Prize Pool:
With 23 paid players, as of right now, First Place would win:
(23 * 25) + 100 + 50
(Entry Fees) + (Part of my Donation) + (WoN's Donation) = $725
"Most Average," Consolation Prize: $75 (My Donation)
"You Suck," Consolation Prize: $75 (My Donation)
As always, I will be defending my donations, but I cannot win. What that means is that if I place in the money in any way, that only means I keep my own money. If I come in first, then second place wins all the Entry Fees. WoN is fully eligible to win.
3.) WEEK 1 PICKS:
The server seems pretty much in order, but just in case:
3a.) I will be including my E-Mail address in the PM reminder, so people can E-Mail me picks if unable to login:
WHICH
3b.) Said reminder will be sent tomorrow because I am going to be busy Saturday morning and would risk missing the reminders.
3c.) I will be sending Reminders to paid entrants as well as anyone who has previously participated in the contest.
CONCLUSION:
Still a decent little prize for First Place plus whatever other Entry Fees are collected. There's always that off-chance that we trigger the $500 donations, but I seriously doubt it.
Quote: mipletI just have one pet peeve: it's Eastern Daylight Time until we change the clocks back on November 5th at 2 am. Would hate for someone to be confused on the exact time. Now I just need to set reminders on my phone so I don't miss getting my picks in.
Miplet,
The first thing I want to ask is: Is there an error on the program due to L.A. teams? The Broncos/Chargers didn't come up at all on your program, so I filled that in manually. Secondly, the Colts showed up, but not the Rams on that line. I fixed both of those things manually thanks to a great catch by JW17.
I don't know what you mean on the November 5th, because we go back an hour? I'll make a ruling on that right now, Picks will be accepted until 11:00a.m. on THAT WEEK ONLY.
In the interest of Full Disclosure, I would like to say that JPLOT submitted an illegal Pick on the Chiefs/Patriots game prior to the start of the game. He actually submitted Picks before I posted the Lines.
Pursuant to Rule #3, only Picks for Sunday/Monday games will be considered.
Fortunately for JPLOT, I had opened his PM (by mistake) because I am not accustomed to not opening PM's yet. Besides that, I didn't expect the PM to contain any Picks as I had not yet posted the Lines.
I opened the PM prior to Halftime and notified JPLOT of the illegal Pick.
I am giving JPLOT the opportunity to submit five new Picks rather than use the Skip Week. While I will not disclose what his Pick was, I will say that it was an illegal Pick and would not have counted anyway. Had I not noticed it until Sunday, JPLOT would have used his Skip Week this week.
However, it offers JPLOT no advantage to get to submit a LEGAL set of Picks provided he does it by Sunday @ 10:00a.m., other than he will not be forced to use his Skip Week. Either way, he is picking from the same games as everyone else. I feel like it would be Draconian to force him to use his Skip Week this week as I did catch the error prior to Sunday.
Quote: sixsistersGee What a bad year for Miami. I mean first Hurricane Irma and noW Looks like New England Patriots will go undefeated in NFL
I'm going to go out on a limb and say you don't have the game on.
Quote: Mission146I'm going to go out on a limb and say you don't have the game on.
OMG, how can this be ? HaHa
Quote: Mission146(My favorite post of the year!!!)
Greetings!
The Week 1 Lines are as follows:
Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Dolphins (+2.5) O/U 41.5
Due to hurricane Irma, this game has been rescheduled for week 11. If possible, you might want to remove it from your original post so no one bets it!
lol fun to analyze and yell at the TV/ESPN app... so good luck everyone!
Greetings!
1.) The PM Reminders for Week 1 have been sent to everyone who has not yet submitted Picks.
1a.) Previous players also received a Reminder if they have not yet paid but DID OPEN the original invitation PM that was sent to them. My reasoning is that with all of the server trouble, maybe they meant to sign up for the game, but had difficulty logging in. There were some times there when you could log in and do, like, one thing and as soon as you went to do something else you couldn't.
1b.) Previous players who received an Invitation that has not yet been opened DID NOT receive a reminder. My reasoning on that is that they probably don't log in very much anymore, if at all, or received the PM (knew what it was) and just didn't care to open it.
2.) We have one new sign up since I last tallied everyone, so add $25 to the First Place prize I posted earlier for how much that will be. I'll do a final official update on that after I have posted the Week 2 Picks, because all Entry Fees will have been received by then, or if not, the person/people isn't/aren't playing and any Entry Fees would be returned.
Let's have another fun season!
ADDED:
3.) Also, you guys can do what you like, but that marks my final effort to try to attract more players. There's really nothing else for me to do, at this point. Like I said, the timing of the server trouble really sucked for this game and I think we would have had a not unreasonable chance of hitting fifty players, otherwise. It would have at least been close.
Quote: Mission146FULL DISCLOSURE:
JPLOT
(Other son of SOOPOO). He thought the Pats were a lock.......
Quote: SOOPOO(Other son of SOOPOO). He thought the Pats were a lock.......
Well, I wasn't planning to disclose the Pick because I didn't want to get any complaints along the lines of, "He would have had two losses," and the Patriots were leading 17-7 (I think) when I sent the PM informing him his Picks were illegal.
By the way, no PM from him yet, but I know he read those ones from me. Can you please make sure he knows he needs to replace the Patriots Pick? If he doesn't, then Week 1 shall be his Skip Week. Failure to make five Picks is categorically unacceptable now due to previous controversies.
Quote: Mission146Well, I wasn't planning to disclose the Pick because I didn't want to get any complaints along the lines of, "He would have had two losses," and the Patriots were leading 17-7 (I think) when I sent the PM informing him his Picks were illegal.
By the way, no PM from him yet, but I know he read those ones from me. Can you please make sure he knows he needs to replace the Patriots Pick? If he doesn't, then Week 1 shall be his Skip Week. Failure to make five Picks is categorically unacceptable now due to previous controversies.
Will do! I basically forced him to sign up so we could get to 50 participants.... I guess I needed 22 more kids....
Quote: SOOPOOWill do! I basically forced him to sign up so we could get to 50 participants.... I guess I needed 22 more kids....
Well, yeah, if they were anything like the first two, that would have been a good thing. Lol.
Mission, I'm going to assume you've declined on upping the amount of our bet. It's currently my $200 to your $100.) If that's not the case, let me know sometime today. I'm willing to increase it by 100%.Quote: EdCollinsThanks.
After thinking about it, and after determining what I believe is my edge, I'm willing to bet more, if you desire. (Hey, we only live once, right?)
Think about it and let me know.
I thought it would be a good idea to copy and paste the exact format he wants the picks sent
1.) No Line Breaks
2.) For Spread picks, simply put the team nickname and the spread. (Ex: Bengals +5)
3.) For Over/Unders, simply put the team nickname for EITHER team, and the Over or Under amount. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25)
4.) To designate a Confidence Pick, simply put a hyphen and, "Confidence," after the pick. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25-Confidence)
5.) Place your handle, without spaces, above your set of Picks followed by a colon(:)
So, a full set of picks might appear:
Mission146:
Patriots -15
Patriots OVER 52
Jaguars +12
Jaguars UNDER 42
Jets +4-Confidence
Quote: SOOPOO(Other son of SOOPOO). He thought the Pats were a lock.......
I hope you don't call your sons "son" and "other son". lol :)
he uses "#1 son" and "#2 son" like Charlie Chan didQuote: RSI hope you don't call your sons "son" and "other son". lol :)
Quote: JohnzimboFull disclosure...I got my wife to enter even though she doesn't like sports much, trying to get us to 50 players also. Mission is going to make randomized picks for her all year because if I had to get her to make her own picks every week I would be divorced before the Browns win one game.
I'll give you the option of her withdrawing and her Entry Fee being returned if you let me know before 13:00 EST tomorrow. We're not going to hit fifty, anyway, so you're essentially paying for random picks.
Quote: EdCollins
Think about it and let me know. Mission, I'm going to assume you've declined on upping the amount of our bet. It's currently my $200 to your $100.) If that's not the case, let me know sometime today. I'm willing to increase it by 100%.
I'll keep the bet where it is, I think I figured out what I may have been missing...but I don't think it means as much as you do.