2017 WoV Picks Game (Discussion Thread)

Quote: SOOPOO

I didn't remember, and it is possible my bet is not the same, but likely it is. If it gets to that we can look back at the thread.

Confirmed. (Page 5.)

I was just gobsmacked yesterday that MidwestAP took a bye week. Somehow it never occurred to me he might do that. Grrrrr. And then I go 3-3 and might as well have taken mine for all the good it did.

I'll be interested to see where things are with the people between us, (I'm probably not mathematically eliminated yet, but for all practical purposes I am) but find I REALLY care more about the $20 sidebet. Lol at me.

I'm now, at 54.8%, effectively screwed for both the top prize and the middle prize. A 6-0 week or an 0-6 week won't quite be enough to win, either way.

As a new member I would be interested playing next year. But I prefer playing online, meaning there are sites that manages leagues, similar to fantasy. CBS sports line has a pick em game and you can tweak the settings to whatever you want it to be.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I was just gobsmacked yesterday that MidwestAP took a bye week. Somehow it never occurred to me he might do that. Grrrrr. And then I go 3-3 and might as well have taken mine for all the good it did.

I'll be interested to see where things are with the people between us, (I'm probably not mathematically eliminated yet, but for all practical purposes I am) but find I REALLY care more about the $20 sidebet. Lol at me.

I made the decision early on that if I was in the lead on week 16, I was most likely taking my skip week for strategy purposes. This could have changed if I felt I had strong plays, but like Mission, I didn't. In fact to the contrary, the few plays I liked intuitively were actually plays against using the method I've been following. So 'skip' made sense.

Looks like I'll have the lead going into the last week, but with several heavyweights on my heels. Should be interesting.

Unofficial Week 16 Results and Current Standings

Mission146 (0-5)
Dolphins +10.5 (loss)
Cowboys -5 (loss)
Jaguars -4.5 (loss)
Giants OVER 40 (loss)
Cowboys OVER 47 (loss)

WizardofNothing (3-3)
Panthers -10 (loss)
Chiefs -10.5 Confidence (win)
Chargers -6.5 (win)
Jaguars -4.5 (loss)
Cowboys -5 (loss)

DLW6486 (2-4)
Chiefs OVER 43.5 (loss)
Cardinals OVER 40 Confidence (loss)
Bears OVER 38 (loss)
Seahawks +5 (win)
Saints -5.5 (win)

Romes (5-1)
Bears -6.5 (win)
Panthers -10 (loss)
Saints -5.5 (win)
Redskins -3.5 (win)
Chiefs -10.5 Confidence (win)

GordonM888 (4-0)
Chargers -6.5 (win)
Titans +6.5 (win)
Redskins -3.5 (win)
49ers +4.5 (win)
Raiders +9 Confidence (push)

JohnZimbo (3-3)
Bengals +3.5 (win)
Browns +6.5 (loss)
Falcons +5.5 Confidence (loss)
49ers +4.5 (win)
Panthers UNDER 46.5 (win)

BeachBumBabs (3-3)
Lions -3.5 (loss)
Saints - 5.5 Confidence (win)
Chargers -6.5 (win)
Bills +12 (loss)
Jaguars -4.5 (loss)

JOHNNYQ (4-1)
Bengals (+3.5) (win)
Redskins (-3.5) (win)
49ers (+4.5) (win)
Seahawks (+5) (win)
Texans (+9.5) (loss)

DRZIN (4-1)
Bengals (+3.5) (win)
Titans (+6.5) (win)
49ers (+4.5) (win)
Cardinals (-3) (win)
Texans (+9.5) (loss)

JW17 (0-5)
Broncos (+3.5) Confidence (loss)
Browns (+6.5) (loss)
Jets (+6.5) (loss)
Texans (+9.5) (loss)
Raiders (+9) (push)

PlayYourCardsRight (1-4)
Bills +12 (loss)
Cowboys -5 (loss)
Giants OVER 40 (loss)
Bengals +3.5 (win)
Rams -6.5 (loss)

RisingDough (3-1)
Raiders+9 Confidence (push)
Giants+3 (loss)
49ers+4.5 (win)
Bengals+3.5 (win)
Patriots-12 (win)

odiousgambit (3-2)
Lions -3.5 (loss)
Rams -6.5 (loss)
Chargers -6.5 (win)
Steelers -9.5 (win)
Patriots -12 (win)

SOOPOO (2-3)
Bills + 12 (Confidence) (loss)
49ers +4.5 (win)
Bengals +3.5 (win)
Falcons +5.5 (loss)
Raiders +9 (push)

rainman (1-5)
cowboys -5 Confidence (loss)
Dolphins + 10.5 (loss)
Browns +6.5 (loss)
Rams -6.5 (loss)
Bengals +3.5 (win)

Wizard (4-2)
Bengals (+3.5) Confidence (win)
Falcons (+5.5) (loss)
Broncos (+3.5) (loss)
49ers (+4.5) (win)
Seahawks (+5) (win)

GenWyzgy (1-5)
Bengals +3.5 (win)
Jets OVER 42.5 (loss)
Bills +12 (loss)
Giants OVER 40 Confidence (loss)
Falcons +5.5 (loss)

KMUMF (3-2)
Bengals +3.5 (win)
Chargers -6.5 (win)
Titans +6.5 (win)
Browns +6.5 Confidence (loss)
Raiders +9 (push)

Terapined (1-4)
Bucs +10 (win)
Broncos +3.5 (loss)
Bills+12 (loss)
Dolphins +10.5 (loss)
Texans +9.5 (loss)

EdCollins (3-3)
Lions -3.5 (Confidence) (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (win)
Chargers -6.5 (win)
Falcons +5.5 (loss)
Bears -6.5 (win)

miplet (2-4)
Bengals +3.5 (win)
Broncos +3.5 Confidence (loss)
Bills +12 (loss)
49ers +4.5 (win)
Texans +9.5 (loss)

Sparty10k (0-6)
Lions -3.5 (loss)
Rams -6.5 (loss)
Falcons +5.5 (loss)
Bills UNDER 47 Confidence (loss)
Jaguars -4.5 (loss)

Name	Wins	Losses	%
MidwestAP	47	32	59.49%
WizardofNothing	55	39	58.51%
Wizard	53	38	58.24%
Romes	51	37	57.95%
JohnnyQ	44	34	56.41%
BeachBumBabs	50	40	55.56%
EdCollins	45	37	54.88%
Gordonm888	45	38	54.22%
terapined	41	36	53.25%
Mission146	38	35	52.05%
DLW6486	41	38	51.90%
JohnZimbo	47	44	51.65%
miplet	48	46	51.06%
Sparty10k	45	44	50.56%
KMUMF	37	37	50.00%
DrZin	39	40	49.37%
rainman	37	40	48.05%
SOOPOO	42	48	46.67%
PlayYourCardsRight	36	43	45.57%
RisingDough	40	48	45.45%
GenWyzgy	36	46	43.90%
JW17	36	54	40.00%
odiousgambit	28	43	39.44%
Totals	981	937	51.15%

Record of Skip Weeks:
GenWyzgy: Week 15
Gordonm888: Week 4
KMUMF: Week 2
Mission146: Week 6
MidwestAP: Week 16
odiousgambit: Week 5
PlayYourCardsRight: Week 7
rainman: Week 7
Romes: Week 4



Sparty10k: Nice work going 0-6 and putting yourself in serious contention for the "Most Average" prize.

JW17: Nice work going 0-5 and giving odiousgambit a run for the "You Suck" prize.

Next week, all of the games are on Sunday... New Year's Eve. Unfortunately, I have to work that day, out of town. I won't be getting back to my hotel room until about four hours AFTER the last game. (There is no late night Sunday game that day.)

Thus, I won't be able to post the weekend results and the final contest standings until that time.

If someone else wishes to do so, that would be great. If not, my apologies in advance... and I'll do so late Sunday evening.

Quote:

JW17: Nice work going 0-5 and giving odiousgambit a run for the "You Suck" prize.

I am trying the worst I can

I've had a decent amount of time off work and have been super busy with some travels and holiday times... guess I should just default and stay away? Is the next week the last week of our pool then, or do we do anything with the playoffs?

Quote: Romes

I've had a decent amount of time off work and have been super busy with some travels and holiday times... guess I should just default and stay away? Is the next week the last week of our pool then, or do we do anything with the playoffs?

You already took your skip week, and you can still win, so it seems to me it would be foolish of you to default.

Next week is the last week of this. We usually have a playoff points thing, but it's separate from this.

You could put default picks of some kind on file with Mission if you're going to be too busy to pick after the lines are posted. You could pick teams by looking at the schedule, lowest spread dogs, any number of ways.

Or..you're a couple ahead of me, and I'm still not totally eliminated. ..yeah, sure, default. That's the ticket.

Quote: EdCollins

JW17: Nice work going 0-5 and giving odiousgambit a run for the "You Suck" prize.

bashing myself for going 3 and 2 [which is 2 and 3 in the inverted quest]!

Quote: Romes

I've had a decent amount of time off work and have been super busy with some travels and holiday times... guess I should just default and stay away? Is the next week the last week of our pool then, or do we do anything with the playoffs?

There is a separate Playoff game every year, everyone who either played this game (or posted in this thread) will get an invite. The only exception is WoN, who is Nuked, and may not participate in any new game.

BET WITH WIZARD

Whatever happens with my bets re: Wizard this last week, I feel vindicated in that I had the best of it at 2:1 just by way of the fact that he has a chance going into this last week. He just needs to run the table or run the table with a push.

I also don't know the exact number, but I think we went to his default Picks five-seven weeks total, which I think EdCollins and SOOPOO might have been counting on when they made the bet. If we sprinkle a bunch of expected .500 weeks with whatever Wizard's expectation otherwise is handpicking and take the mean, it would probably be less than .600. Of course, I still think I had the best of it at 2:1, and obviously, there's no way I make that bet at Even Money. For Even Money, the most I would go is Wizard to beat .525.

Name	Wins	Losses	%
MidwestAP	47	32	59.49%
WizardofNothing	55	39	58.51%
Wizard	53	38	58.24%
Romes	51	37	57.95%
JohnnyQ	44	34	56.41%
BeachBumBabs	50	40	55.56%
EdCollins	45	37	54.88%
Gordonm888	45	38	54.22%
terapined	41	36	53.25%
Mission146	38	35	52.05%
DLW6486	41	38	51.90%
JohnZimbo	47	44	51.65%
miplet	48	46	51.06%
Sparty10k	45	44	50.56%
KMUMF	37	37	50.00%
DrZin	39	40	49.37%
rainman	37	40	48.05%
SOOPOO	42	48	46.67%
PlayYourCardsRight	36	43	45.57%
RisingDough	40	48	45.45%
GenWyzgy	36	46	43.90%
JW17	36	54	40.00%
odiousgambit	28	43	39.44%
Totals	981	937	51.15%

SPOILERS:

"You Suck," prize: If your record is as high, or higher, than that of Rainman, you cannot win this prize. Here is the worst possible record for each person below Rainman, except we're going to look at our, "Leader," OdiousGambit's best possible record:

(Confidence Picks all Assumed)

OdiousGambit Best Record: 34-43 (.44155844)

Worst Records

JW17: 36-60 (.375)
GenWyzgy: 36-52 (.4091)
RisingDough 40-54 (.4255)
PlayYourCardsRight: 36-49 (.4235)
SOOPOO: 42-54 (.4375)

CUT OFF: Rainman: 37-46 (.4458)---OR BETTER

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MOST AVERAGE

Okay, there are two ways to be eliminated from this, and those are high-end and low-end. That is to say that one's record may be either too low or too high to qualify. In order to (roughly) figure this out, I'm going to take our current, "Most Average," KMUMF at 37-37 (.500) and figure out his best and worst record:

KMUMF BEST: 43-37 = (.5375)
KMUMF WORST 37-43 = (.4625)

Therefore, if you have a better record and an 0-6 week wouldn't get you there, you can't win it. If you have a worse record and an 0-6 week wouldn't get you there, you can't win it.

MidwestAP: 47-38 = (.55294118)
WizardofNothing: 55-45 = (.550)
Wizard: 53-44 = (.5464)
Romes: 51-43 = (.5426)
JohnnyQ: 44-40 = (.5238)----IN CONTENTION

JohnnyQ and everyone with a record lower than JohnnyQ may qualify for the, "Most Average," prize except:

OdiousGambit: 34-43 (.4416)
JW17: 42-54 (.4375)
GenWyzgy: 42-46 (.4773)****

GenWyzgy and everyone with a better record than GenWyzgy qualifies for the most average prize.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOP PRIZE

It appears that literally everyone will have a shot at one or more prizes, so let's see where the cut off for the Top Prize is:

The worst that MidWestAP could finish is:

MidwestAP: 47-38 (.5529)

Starting from .500 and going up, here is where we hit the best record (assumes all wins + Confidence) that could touch MidwestAP:

DLW6486: 47-38 (.5529)---TIE
Mission146: 44-35 (.55696)
Terapined: 47-36 (.5663)
Gordonm888: 51-38 (.573)
EdCollins: 51-37 (.5795)
BeachBumBabs: 56-40 (.58333)
JohnnyQ: 50-34 (.5952)
Romes: 57-37 (.6064)
Wizard: (.6082)
WizardofNothing: (.6100)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONCLUSION:

Here is the List of Participants and (theoretically) available prizes:

TOP PRIZE ONLY:
Romes
Wizard
WizardofNothing
MidwestAP

TOP PRIZE & MOST AVERAGE:

DLW6486:
Mission146:
Terapined:
Gordonm888:
EdCollins:
BeachBumBabs:
JohnnyQ:

MOST AVERAGE ONLY

JohnZimbo
miplet
Sparty10k
KMUMF
DrZin
Rainman

MOST AVERAGE & YOU SUCK:

SOOPOO
PlayYourCardsRight
RisingDough
Genwyzgy

YOU SUCK ONLY

JW17
OdiousGambit

DISCLAIMERS

1.) I'm pretty confident I got this right, but I don't 100% guarantee this analysis. I spent a few minutes, but not a ton of time on it. Adjust your strategy to this analysis at your own risk.

2.) Everything on here assumes ALL different picks, particularly for those with an extremely outside shot at certain prizes. Simply having the same pick as someone (win or lose) could end it.***

***Example, if SOOPOO were to share a Pick with OdiousGambit, regardless of that, or any other, results, SOOPOO would automatically lose the, "You Suck," prize.

***Example 2: If I share a pick with MidwestAP, then I am mathematically eliminated from first place, as I can no longer beat him. I could, however, share ONE pick with anyone else and still have a chance if that Pick is a winner...so that may give you guys some idea of where you're at.

Well, I finally had an undefeated week, 4-0. If not for that bogus touchdown at the end of the Philadelpia game, I would have been 6-0.

The only goal I have left now is to beat Ed Collins, and maybe Babs.

My goal last week was 1-5. Now it’s 2-4.

My goal is to beat MidwestAP. Karma and the odds are against me, so it's good either way. But better to win. :D

Quote: beachbumbabs

My goal is to beat MidwestAP. Karma and the odds are against me, so it's good either way. But better to win. :D

I wouldn't discount your chances too much, if anybody can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it's me!!

Quote: Mission146

BET WITH WIZARD

Whatever happens with my bets re: Wizard this last week, I feel vindicated in that I had the best of it at 2:1 just by way of the fact that he has a chance going into this last week. He just needs to run the table or run the table with a push.

I also don't know the exact number, but I think we went to his default Picks five-seven weeks total, which I think EdCollins and SOOPOO might have been counting on when they made the bet. If we sprinkle a bunch of expected .500 weeks with whatever Wizard's expectation otherwise is handpicking and take the mean, it would probably be less than .600. Of course, I still think I had the best of it at 2:1, and obviously, there's no way I make that bet at Even Money. For Even Money, the most I would go is Wizard to beat .525.

Your first paragraph makes no sense. He has a few percent chance to win for you, but you are getting only 2-1 odds.

As far as his default picks, I would expect them to do o better nor worse than his regular picks. So that had nothing to do with me offering this bet to you. Given the stale lines we use, I think if you want an even money bet next year I'd go over or under 54%.

Quote: SOOPOO

Your first paragraph makes no sense. He has a few percent chance to win for you, but you are getting only 2-1 odds.

As far as his default picks, I would expect them to do o better nor worse than his regular picks. So that had nothing to do with me offering this bet to you. Given the stale lines we use, I think if you want an even money bet next year I'd go over or under 54%.

I obviously would not make the bet as of this week. My point was that it would have only taken a few games to break the other way and then you would need him to have a losing record this week for you to win the bet.

I would probably take 54% next year, but please remind me of it then and we'll discuss an amount. I don't think he has ever picked below 54%.

Quote: Mission146

My point was that it would have only taken a few games to break the other way...

A few games? Ha! Try just two games.

In Week 4, on Monday night, with just four seconds left in the game, the Chiefs went ahead 23 to 20, via a field goal. The Redskins were 7-point dogs, so it looked like that was a win for all 'Skins backers.

However, on the last play of the game, Washington tried one of those razzle-dazzle flea flicker desperation plays. It backfired when they fumbled and Kansas City picked it up and ran the other way for a "meaningless" touchdown. (The guy who picked up the fumble should have just fallen on the ball.) The final score was 29 to 20, KC, and they now covered the 7-point spread.

Mike had Washington, AND it was a Confidence Pick. He finished 3-3 that week, and thus would have been 5-1.

Give Mike one more win (instead of a loss) anywhere, in any week, and just a 3-3 record this final week puts Mike over .60. SOOPOO and I would need a 2-4 record, or worse, for him to come under .60.

That being said, my computer simulations indicate even with giving 2 to1 odds, SOOPOO and I still had a very nice edge, and thus I will make this same exact bet next year, given the opportunity.

Quote: EdCollins

A few games? Ha! Try just two games.

In Week 4, on Monday night, with just four seconds left in the game, the Chiefs went ahead 23 to 20, via a field goal. The Redskins were 7-point dogs, so it looked like that was a win for all 'Skins backers.

However, on the last play of the game, Washington tried one of those razzle-dazzle flea flicker desperation plays. It backfired when they fumbled and Kansas City picked it up and ran the other way for a "meaningless" touchdown. (The guy who picked up the fumble should have just fallen on the ball.) The final score was 29 to 20, KC, and they now covered the 7-point spread.

Mike had Washington, AND it was a Confidence Pick. He finished 3-3 that week, and thus would have been 5-1.

Give Mike one more win (instead of a loss) anywhere, in any week, and just a 3-3 record this final week puts Mike over .60. SOOPOO and I would need a 2-4 record, or worse, for him to come under .60.

Good point! It cuts the other way, though. One loss and it's over, so if he had one extra loss, then nothing he could do this week would matter. Maybe it's two extra losses (because he could still go 6-0 this week) I haven't fully broken it down.

Quote:

That being said, my computer simulations indicate even with giving 2 to1 odds, SOOPOO and I still had a very nice edge, and thus I will make this same exact bet next year, given the opportunity.

I trust your simulations more than my brain, so I won't be giving you the opportunity. The one thing I will say is that the priors (expected winning percentage) in my head and that you used for your simulations, I imagine, are quite different. Either way, I think Mike also thinks I had the worst of it. I've got an anesthesiologist and two programmers/mathematicians telling me I'm wrong, so there you go.

That said, if you want to take Mike at 54%, or lower, for Even Money next year, chances are I might take 54.000+%.

Greetings!

Aside from the Playoff Picks Game, the end of another season is upon us, and the Week 17 Lines are as follows:

Bengals (+9.5) @ Ravens (-9.5) O/U 40
Packers (+6.5) @ Lions (-6.5) O/U 43
Bills (-2.5) @ Dolphins (+2.5) O/U 42.5
Panthers (+4) @ Falcons (-4) O/U 45
Saints (-7) @ Buccaneers (+7) O/U 50.5
Jaguars (+3) @ Titans (-3) O/U 42
Jets (+15.5) @ Patriots (-15.5) O/U 44
Texans (+4) @ Colts (-4) O/U 41.5
Browns (+11) @ Steelers (-11) O/U 38.5
Redskins (-3) @ Giants (+3) O/U 39
Bears (+11.5) @ Vikings (-11.5) O/U 39.5
Cowboys (-3) @ Eagles (+3) O/U 39.5
Raiders (+7.5) @ Chargers (-7.5) O/U 42
Cardinals (+9.5) @ Seahawks (-9.5) O/U 38.5
Chiefs (+3.5) @ Broncos (-3.5) O/U 38
49ers (-3) @ Rams (+3) O/U 43.5

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

Aside from the Playoff Picks Game, the end of another season is upon us, and the Week 17 Lines are as follows:

Bengals (+9.5) @ Ravens (-9.5) O/U 40
Packers (+6.5) @ Lions (-6.5) O/U 43
Bills (-2.5) @ Dolphins (+2.5) O/U 42.5
Panthers (+4) @ Falcons (-4) O/U 45
Saints (-7) @ Buccaneers (+7) O/U 50.5
Jaguars (+3) @ Titans (-3) O/U 42
Jets (+15.5) @ Patriots (-15.5) O/U 44
Texans (+4) @ Colts (-4) O/U 41.5
Browns (+11) @ Steelers (-11) O/U 38.5
Redskins (-3) @ Giants (+3) O/U 39
Bears (+11.5) @ Vikings (-11.5) O/U 39.5
Cowboys (-3) @ Eagles (+3) O/U 39.5
Raiders (+7.5) @ Chargers (-7.5) O/U 42
Cardinals (+9.5) @ Seahawks (-9.5) O/U 38.5
Chiefs (+3.5) @ Broncos (-3.5) O/U 38
49ers (-3) @ Rams (+3) O/U 43.5

My predictions for Mike's predictions! Jets, Cardinals, Raiders, Bengals, Browns (confidence)

I was just kinda throwing darts at a board
My picking strategy
Always pick my home town Bucs
Always pick my old hometown Ravens
Always pick against the Redskins. I cant stand Dan Snyder
The rest, I go for the underdogs getting the most points

Had a few losing weeks but overall stayed above 500 the whole year. Not bad

Greetings!

The Week 17 Picks are as Follows:

Mission146:
Bengals +9.5
Redskins -3
49ers -3
Browns +11
Raiders +7.5

johnnyq:
Bills (-2.5)
Jaguars (+3)
Bears (+11.5)
Eagles (+3)
Rams (+3)

DrZin:
Bills (-2.5)
Titans (-3)
Redskins (-3)
Eagles (+3)
Rams (+3)

WizardofNothing:
Ravens -9.5
Patriots OVER 44
Falcons OVER 45
Lions -6.5 CONFIDENCE
Redskins -3

Gordonm888:
Saints -7
Patriots -15.5 - Confidence
Colts -4
Raiders +7.5
49ers -3

EdCollins:
Packers +6.5
Eagles +3
Rams +3
Browns +11 Confidence
Bengals +9.5

Rainman:
49ers -3
cowboys -3 confidence
panthers +4
jets +15.5
cardinals +9.5

RisingDough:
Browns+11 *confidence
Packers+6.5
Dolphins+2.5
Buccaneers under 50.5
Colts-4

odiousgambit:
Panthers +4
Cardinals +9.5
Bengals +9.5
Jaguars +3
Dolphins +2.5

SOOPOO:
Browns +11 (confidence)
Dolphins +2.5
Eagles +3
Jets +15.5
Raiders +7.5

BeachBumBabs:
Eagles +3 confidence
Steelers -11
Lions -6.5
Saints -7
Falcons -4

terapined:
Ravens -9.5
Bucs +7
Giants +3
Jets +15.5
Bears +11.5

KMUMF:
Packers +6.5 Confidence
Bills -2.5
Falcons -4
Jaguars +3
Eagles +3

GenWyzgy:
Packers +6.5 CONFIDENCE
Buccaneers +7
Patriots -15.5
Chargers -7.5
Chiefs OVER 38

Miplet:
Dolphins +2.5
Buccaneers +7
Giants +3-confidence
Eagles +3
Rams +3

JohnZimbo:
Steelers -11
Eagles +3
Titans -3
Packers +6.5
Ravens over 40

MidwestAP:
Browns +11 - Confidence
Colts -4
Saints UNDER 50.54
49ers -3
Cardinals +9.5

JW17:
Skips Week 17

DLW6486:
Jaguars OVER 42
Titans -3
Jets +15.5
Ravens OVER 40
Buccaneers +7

Wizard:
Bengals +9.5
Packers +6.5
Panthers +4 CONFIDENCE
Buccaneers +7
Jaguars +3

Romes:
Ravens -9.5
Lions -6.5
Falcons -4
Titans -3
Patriots -15.5 CONFIDENCE

Here are a few notes before the games really get underway:

The potential prize list has been updated accordingly on the bottom. Fortunately, while we had a few people removed from, 'You Suck,' and the Top Prize, everyone still potentially qualifies to win at least one prize. The people auto-eliminated from the top can still win most average, as can the people at the bottom. Admittedly, it would take A LOT in many of these cases.

1.) JW17 has very wisely decided to SKIP the final week. What does that mean?

-He is counting on OdiousGambit to go 3-2 (or better) for JW 17 to win. Alternatively, OG could go 2-2-ND which would give both OBG and JW 17 a .4000 winning percentage.

-However, where the strategy really impresses me is that it eliminates four other potential, "You Suck," competitors, namely GenWyzgy, RisingDough, PlayYourCardsRight and SOOPOO because none of them can go below JW17's frozen .4000 winning percentage.

-Theoretically, JW17 could have beaten OG AND, 'Improved,' his own winning percentage at the same time such that someone else could overtake---or would it be undertake---him.

2.) Most Average is wide open.

3.) The following people are eliminated from contention for the Top Prize:

-Mission146: Shares a Pick(s) with MidwestAP and can no longer beat him.

-DLW6486: Would have needed to make a Confidence Pick and go 6-0 as compared to MidwestAP's 0-6. DLW6486's default (random picks) strategy does not include a Confidence Pick.

-Gordonm888 shares two picks with MidwestAP and cannot beat him.

-EdCollins DOES share MidwestAP's Confidence Pick, but he's close enough to him in record that such is not an automatic death sentence.

Here is the List of Participants and (theoretically) available prizes:

TOP PRIZE ONLY:
Romes
Wizard
WizardofNothing
MidwestAP

TOP PRIZE & MOST AVERAGE:

Terapined:
EdCollins:
BeachBumBabs:
JohnnyQ:

MOST AVERAGE ONLY

Gordonm888
Mission146
DLW6486
JohnZimbo
miplet
Sparty10k
KMUMF
DrZin
Rainman
SOOPOO
PlayYourCardsRight
RisingDough
Genwyzgy

YOU SUCK ONLY

JW17
OdiousGambit

Most Love
Eagles 9
Packers 8
Browns 8

No Love
Vikings
Seahawks

Lopsided Action
Eagles 9 Cowboys 2

Most action
Pack 8 Lions 4

I should have default picks on file.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

I should have default picks on file.

Thank you for mentioning this. Since I didn't see any picks from you this week, and since this would have been your second skipped week, I would have removed you from the final standings. Now I know not to do so.

Quote: Mission146

2.) Most Average is wide open....

TOP PRIZE & MOST AVERAGE:

Terapined:
EdCollins:
BeachBumBabs:
JohnnyQ:

With Sparty10K taking his Skip Week this week, (smart move) and freezing his record at 50.562%, that eliminated me and Babs and probably a few others from mathemtatically contending for that prize. The closest I could come, for example, would be if all of my picks lost, going 0-6, and even that would put me out of contention, at 51.648%.

Quote: EdCollins

With Sparty10K taking his Skip Week this week, (smart move) and freezing his record at 50.562%, that eliminated me and Babs and probably a few others from mathemtatically contending for that prize. The closest I could come, for example, would be if all of my picks lost, going 0-6, and even that would put me out of contention, at 51.648%.

Rats. I'll just have to win it all. I was feeling sorry for KMUNF for taking a week 2 bye. He could have skipped this week and be unbeatable, but it was gone 3 months ago.

So we're too good for average, huh, Ed? That has a small amount of consolidation in it.

2 most boring games in the 1:00 slot are what I'm stuck with. Pats/Jets and Eagles/Cowboys, though the latter has picked up a little in the 4th quarter.

Quote: Mission146

1.) JW17 has very wisely decided to SKIP the final week. What does that mean?

-He is counting on OdiousGambit to go 3-2 (or better) for JW 17 to win. Alternatively, OG could go 2-2-ND which would give both OBG and JW 17 a .4000 winning percentage.

As of this moment (3:27 Pacific Standard Time) if all of the games ended right now, with no more scoring, that's exactly the result. JW17's 40% is lower than odiousgambit, who is currently a 40.783%.

Also, as of this moment, JohnZimbo is current the only one at exactly 50%.

MidwestAP, currently at 6-0, ran away with the lead, and further distanced himself from everyone else.

All of the late afternoon games are still in the 3rd quarter, however.

Quote: EdCollins

Also, as of this moment, JohnZimbo is current the only one at exactly 50%.

Sadly it looks like I am going to win my last two games when I needed to go 1-1 :(

Quote: Johnzimbo

Sadly it looks like I am going to win my last two games when I needed to go 1-1 :(

Still might happen! Jags have the ball at midfield with more than eight minutes to go... and all they need is one score.

Congrats, Midwest AP! 5-1 is the icing on the cake.$20 owed. Prefer paypal, but pm me with details.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Congrats, Midwest AP! 5-1 is the icing on the cake.$20 owed. Prefer paypal, but pm me with details.

Thank you!! I'll PM you in a couple days. In Nashville tonight.

I'm currently working (out of town, in Vegas) but I found time to update the results.

Unofficial Week 17 Results and FINAL Standings

Mission146 (3-2)
Bengals +9.5 (win)
Redskins -3 (loss)
49ers -3 (win)
Browns +11 (win)
Raiders +7.5 (loss)

johnnyq (1-4)
Bills (-2.5) (win)
Jaguars (+3) (loss)
Bears (+11.5) (loss)
Eagles (+3) (loss)
Rams (+3) (loss)

DrZin (2-3)
Bills (-2.5) (win)
Titans (-3) (win)
Redskins (-3) (loss)
Eagles (+3) (loss)
Rams (+3) (loss)

WizardofNothing (2-4)
Ravens -9.5 (loss)
Patriots OVER 44 (loss)
Falcons OVER 45 (loss)
Lions -6.5 Confidence (win)
Redskins -3 (loss)

Gordonm888 (4-2)
Saints -7 (loss)
Patriots -15.5 Confidence (win)
Colts -4 (win)
Raiders +7.5 (loss)
49ers -3 (win)

EdCollins (3-3)
Packers +6.5 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Rams +3 (loss)
Browns +11 Confidence (win)
Bengals +9.5 (win)

Rainman (4-2)
49ers -3 (win)
cowboys -3 Confidence (win)
panthers +4 (loss)
jets +15.5 (loss)
cardinals +9.5 (win)

RisingDough (3-3)
Browns+11 *Confidence (win)
Packers+6.5 (loss)
Dolphins+2.5 (loss)
Buccaneers UNDER 50.5 (loss)
Colts-4 (win)

odiousgambit (2-3)
Panthers +4 (loss)
Cardinals +9.5 (win)
Bengals +9.5 (win)
Jaguars +3 (loss)
Dolphins +2.5 (loss)

SOOPOO (2-4)
Browns +11 (Confidence) (win)
Dolphins +2.5 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Jets +15.5 (loss)
Raiders +7.5 (loss)

BeachBumBabs (2-4)
Eagles +3 Confidence (loss)
Steelers -11 (loss)
Lions -6.5 (win)
Saints -7 (loss)
Falcons -4 (win)

terapined (2-3)
Ravens -9.5 (loss)
Bucs +7 (win)
Giants +3 (win)
Jets +15.5 (loss)
Bears +11.5 (loss)

KMUMF (2-4)
Packers +6.5 Confidence (loss)
Bills -2.5 (win)
Falcons -4 (win)
Jaguars +3 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)

GenWyzgy (4-2)
Packers +6.5 Confidence (loss)
Buccaneers +7 (win)
Patriots -15.5 (win)
Chargers -7.5 (win)
Chiefs OVER 38 (win)

Miplet (3-3)
Dolphins +2.5 (loss)
Buccaneers +7 (win)
Giants +3 Confidence (win)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Rams +3 (loss)

JohnZimbo (2-3)
Steelers -11 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Titans -3 (win)
Packers +6.5 (loss)
Ravens OVER 40 (win)

MidwestAP (5-1)
Browns +11 Confidence (win)
Colts -4 (win)
Saints UNDER 50.54 (loss)
49ers -3 (win)
Cardinals +9.5 (win)

DLW6486 (3-2)
Jaguars OVER 42 (loss)
Titans -3 (win)
Jets +15.5 (loss)
Ravens OVER 40 (win)
Buccaneers +7 (win)

Wizard (2-4)
Bengals +9.5 (win)
Packers +6.5 (loss)
Panthers +4 Confidence (loss)
Buccaneers +7 (win)
Jaguars +3 (loss)

Romes (5-1)
Ravens -9.5 (loss)
Lions -6.5 (win)
Falcons -4 (win)
Titans -3 (win)
Patriots -15.5 Confidence (win)

PlayYourCardsRight (3-2)
Bengals OVER (win)
Packers OVER (win)
Bills OVER (loss)
Panthers OVER (loss)
Saints OVER (win)

Name	Wins	Losses	%
MidwestAP	52	33	61.18%
Romes	56	38	59.57%
WizardofNothing	57	43	57.00%
Wizard	55	42	56.70%
Gordonm888	49	40	55.06%
EdCollins	48	40	54.55%
JohnnyQ	45	38	54.22%
BeachBumBabs	52	44	54.17%
Mission146	41	37	52.56%
terapined	43	39	52.44%
DLW6486	44	40	52.38%
JohnZimbo	49	47	51.04%
miplet	51	49	51.00%
Sparty10k	45	44	50.56%
rainman	41	42	49.40%
DrZin	41	43	48.81%
KMUMF	39	41	48.75%
PlayYourCardsRight	39	45	46.43%
SOOPOO	44	52	45.83%
RisingDough	43	51	45.74%
GenWyzgy	40	48	45.45%
JW17	36	54	40.00%
odiousgambit	30	46	39.47%
Totals	1,040	996	51.08%

Record of Skip Weeks:

GenWyzgy: Week 15
Gordonm888: Week 4
JW17: Week 17
KMUMF: Week 2
Mission146: Week 6
MidwestAP: Week 16
odiousgambit: Week 5
rainman: Week 7
Romes: Week 4
Sparty10K: Week 17

(The above results include default picks from PlayYourCardsRight, which he messaged me. Mission, please confirm them.)

Assuming my results are without error, congrats to MidwestAP for winning the contest, and to Sparty10k for winning the Most Average Award (50.562%), and to odiousgambit for winning the You Suck Award (39.474%).

A big thanks to Mission for hosting. Thanks to EVERYONE for participating. I hope this contest made this season a bit more enjoyable for you. (It did for me.)

I tried and JUST missed being the worst, oh well, on to next year!!

Quote: JW17

I tried and JUST missed being the worst, oh well, on to next year!!

ditto !

Congrats MidWest! I too am traveling for New Years / a play... I didn’t think I’d ever have a chance and then I started checking all he results and saw all the other top ppl go negative and to my sick awesome default plan go 5-1... I almost prematurely celebrated and then I saw you firmly push your lead to a victory :p. I’m quite happy with a 2nd. I wish I would have defaulted the whole season!

I’m so glad my “skip” week wouldn’t have mattered. I messaged up and got my picks in after the deadline (but before any games) so I take full responsibility and accept they were illegal picks. Still woulda irked me a little on the side if they would have made the diff lol, but I still would have loss by 0.18%!

Congrats to all the winners, and I’ll see you in the playoffs! What do I have to do to play that game, and is it more money for me to donate to whomever wins again?

congratulations to MidwestAP and Sparty10k for winning the more honorable prizes

It was fun and I have to acknowledge that Mission's idea of keeping everyone in the game is a great idea! I confess I originally thought just having 4th, 5th etc [or whatever] place prizes was a better idea, but I have changed my mind, and not just because I hit . When you think about it, if all were robots playing, and played accumatively for enough years, all would tend towards 50%; with people the exceptional players can vie for the other ends.

Naturally one may suspect the 'you suck' winner originally tried for the other direction, but it is fun to go for whatever seems to be your best shot towards the end

Congrats to all the winners/average/losers in the group! Especially Sparty10k for keeping “most average” in the family!

Congrats Midwest and Odious on your impressive and less than impressive picks and wins! Thanks Mission for running the contest and EdC for the updates. Even without the average "win", the contest provided more than $25 worth of entertainment to me.

Congrats to MidwestAP and the other winners. Thanks to Mission and EdCollins. I certainly got $25 of enjoyment from this game.

Has there ever been an NFL season where there were so many consequential injuries to take into account? I feel like injuries were the major story of this season.

I've never been a serious sports bettor, and this was the first time that I've tried to pick the NFL ATS for a full season. I surprised myself by finishing 5th (but way behind MidwestAP.) By the way, for 14 of the 17 weeks I picked with a success rate of 67.6%. But for 3 weeks in the middle of the season - including 2 weeks consecutively - I was 1-17. That's probably just simple statistical variance - but it does seem a bit odd. I'll learn as much as I can from this season and be trying to win it all next year.

Thanks for the congrats all!! It was good to finally take one of these. A couple years ago I got squeezed out in week 17 by EdCollins. It's funny how a person always remembers the losses more clearly than the wins, it came down to the late slot on Sunday, I specifically remember the Niners were involved.

Anyhow, I guess it's not official until Mission confirms it, but I don't see why there would be any problems. Hopefully we can get a playoff game started too.

Yep, I also remember that contest coming down to a late game on Sunday... but I didn't remember that it involved the 49ers. :)

Greetings!

It looks like it's time to wrap up the 2017 WoV Picks Game and to get started on the Playoff Picks Game!

First of all, I want to thank everyone for playing this year, especially with how shaky things were the first couple of weeks during sign up time and the first week or two of the season. I'm really hoping to get more participants next year, but without WoN ponying up a bunch of money, I'll probably be the only one donating to the contest. That being the case, I don't know that I'll be setting a huge amount if we hit fifty.

What I'll probably do next year is make a donation to the contest based directly on the number of people that play, that way there's really no change to the +EV for everyone regardless of the number of players. I'm going to cap it, so any amount over fifty will probably become less +EV at a certain point.

I'm probably going to throw together the Playoff Picks Game and send the reminder PM's tomorrow morning. There's really not that much to do as the only people who will receive an invitation are going to be people who either directly participated in this game or in this thread. Also, I really liked how everything played out last year, so I am going to keep the rules as they were and hope for more of the same.

Congratulations Time!

All three of the winners will shortly receive a PM regarding payment.

First of all, congratulations to our winner, MidwestAP, who not only won the contest, but was also the only player to pick better than 60% of his games! Even in a somewhat limited sample size, and with slightly stale lines, that's a hell of an achievement.

Secondly, I want to congratulate Sparty10K for taking the hotly contested, "Most Average," crown. Even though it's the precise purpose of the prize, I was surprised to see how many people had a mathematically viable path to claiming the most mediocre throne in this game in the last week. Either way, by four one-hundredths of a percent, Sparty10K is the most inoffensively mediocre player this year.

OdiousGambit, you suck. Despite what was (in my opinion) a brilliant strategic move by JW17 to sit the last week and hope for OdiousGambit to accidentally make a couple of good picks, OG steadfastly refused and would go on to prove why, "Fade OdiousGambit," could be a viable strategy for those of you located in Vegas. There are no participation trophies in this game, but there is an actual prize for being truly awful, and OdiousGambit claims it this year.

Congratulations Midwest! I'd be interested to hear your secret. Forgive me if you've already disclosed it.

And thanks to Mission for running the contest. I know a lot of work goes into the score keeping so thanks for your service.

Quote: Wizard

Congratulations Midwest! I'd be interested to hear your secret. Forgive me if you've already disclosed it.

Thanks Mike!!

I'd like to say I have some elaborate strategy, but I figured it would be a good plan to learn from the Wizard himself.

85% of my picks are based on delta's between the line posted by Mission against the market line on Sunday morning (aka stale lines). The other 15% or so is based on other factors like rivalry games, trap games, time zone considerations, and weather considerations.

The best opportunity came on week 17 when the posted Steelers line vs Browns was -11, but on Sunday morning it was -5 because it was announced the Roethlisberger wasn't playing (and Antonio Brown was previously ruled out).

The largest missed opportunity was the snow game Bills vs Colts. I didn't check weather forecasts, otherwise this would have been an easy UNDER confidence pick. It looks like many missed this one too.

Early in the contest, I had decided to take week 16 as my bye week if I was in the lead (or at least very close to the lead). This strategy would almost assure I would have a reasonable chance of being in a good position on the final week by not risking a poor week that would decrease my chances. This would also allow me to potentially take advantage of some juicy stale lines in week 17, which happened with the aforementioned Steelers game.