Dyvan13
Dyvan13
Joined: May 27, 2016
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July 13th, 2017 at 6:11:16 PM permalink
Hello, can my fellow forum members point me in the direction to some solid sports betting resources and articles/literature. I'm a newbie looking to become a sharp, primarily with MLB, then if all goes decent, look into NFL and NHL betting. I really don't know all that much about sharp sports betting other than parlays are generally a ploppy play, and there can be value in betting underdogs and totals on the under. I'm primarily a +EV video poker player, so I am familiar with basic gambling principles like variance, proper bet size to bankroll ratio, etc.

What I am most interested in is how the player/team/home game stats influence the lines and how to spot soft lines, and websites that can provide good statistical information.

Also: When it is better to bet the point spread vs. when to just take the moneyline
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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July 13th, 2017 at 6:41:13 PM permalink
Quote: Dyvan13

Hello, can my fellow forum members point me in the direction to some solid sports betting resources and articles/literature. I'm a newbie looking to become a sharp, primarily with MLB, then if all goes decent, look into NFL and NHL betting. I really don't know all that much about sharp sports betting other than parlays are generally a ploppy play, and there can be value in betting underdogs and totals on the under. I'm primarily a +EV video poker player, so I am familiar with basic gambling principles like variance, proper bet size to bankroll ratio, etc.

What I am most interested in is how the player/team/home game stats influence the lines and how to spot soft lines, and websites that can provide good statistical information.

Also: When it is better to bet the point spread vs. when to just take the moneyline



You said the title a bunch of times....Sharp Sports Betting By Stanford Wong has a lot of good starting info
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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July 17th, 2017 at 10:12:28 PM permalink
Quote: Dyvan13


Also: When it is better to bet the point spread vs. when to just take the moneyline



To add to your polite inquiry....may I ask you experts...

In football, NFL and NCAA...what is the money line equation? I looked but couldn't find it. Maybe I'm not a good researcher...I'm asking for example,

If a team is a 1 point favorite, what should be the money line?

Same on the key numbers of 3 and 7. Is there a straight line correlation between the money line and the point spread, or at least a general rule of thumb? Knowing this would allow us newbies to spot "soft" lines, assuming of course we know which is the soft of the two.

Thanks and good luck this year.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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July 18th, 2017 at 8:20:29 AM permalink
this is a money line to spread converter for the NBA, NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB. it was posted by a guy who went through 20 years of data to come up with it.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 18, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
djatc
July 18th, 2017 at 12:17:45 PM permalink
Handicapping and beating MLB money lines is probably the most difficult thing to do.

However a friend of mine wrote a well regarded book on handicapping. I've read it twice so far and it is excellent.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

However, unlike my friend, I prefer to search for off market prices and focus on smaller markets. That's much easier.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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July 18th, 2017 at 5:58:24 PM permalink
Arnold Rothstein fixed the world series in 1916.
After that I don't think its been fixed.
So it would be like betting in a horse race that ain't fixed and who wants to do that.

I'd switch to soccer ... umpires get bribed there alot as to players.
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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July 18th, 2017 at 9:09:44 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

this is a money line to spread converter for the NBA, NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB. it was posted by a guy who went through 20 years of data to come up with it.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/



Got it, thanks. Exactly what I was hoping for and looking for.
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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July 19th, 2017 at 12:24:58 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Handicapping and beating MLB money lines is probably the most difficult thing to do.

However a friend of mine wrote a well regarded book on handicapping. I've read it twice so far and it is excellent.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

However, unlike my friend, I prefer to search for off market prices and focus on smaller markets. That's much easier.



I read this book and can recommend it to anyone who understands basic sports betting but wants to learn more advanced stuff. No pictures tho.
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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July 19th, 2017 at 8:12:31 AM permalink
There is one field of thought that almost no one can reliably beat the line on NFL games - there is just so much that is known and analyzed before each game, that the lines have become amazingly accurate.

There are some bettors who believe that the best opportunities to beat the line is to become expert on sports and events that don't get a lot of attention, because the lines that the books create are inevitably "less educated."
- for example, one group concentrated on over/under bets on college football involving teams that are not from the Big 5 conferences, like Tulane and Southern Miss and Nevada, etc. - They did massive amounts of research on these teams using internet resources (local newspapers, etc.) and then concentrated on making bets as soon as the sports books posted the opening line, before it could move.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jul 19, 2017
Lando
Lando
Joined: Aug 14, 2014
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Romesdjatc
July 19th, 2017 at 1:48:37 PM permalink
Gordon is generally correct. I am a sharp. I could beat the books in a sport like the NFL, and I do short term (at times), but they limit action especially early in the week precisely in order to gather the market effect of efficiency. This means I just have a small edge here and there, in spot plays, week to week. These games are generally figured out at this point in the game.

Where I crush books are on the offered bets that aren't considered as much by the many and major players (essentially the major US sports). Obviously, non full game bets (that's all I'll say) are where it's at --- we even know our ROI on those long term.

But we're telling you something anyone with any sense already knows; the beatable bets offered are obviously those that are less visible, random, or have less volume all of which lend to greater inefficiency and thus greater exploitability.

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