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bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 2nd, 2017 at 7:44:36 PM permalink
Dodgers pulled out the "W". But the dog payoff was still a worthy punt no matter how it turned.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 2, 2017
RS
RS
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June 2nd, 2017 at 7:55:53 PM permalink
djatc jinxed it.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 3rd, 2017 at 12:42:15 AM permalink
Just looking at some of these recent away dogs you can see they cover the "alt" lines and not just the ML. And many did at +150 or more (thus you can often add 80-100 pts to the ML).

And if these "alt" lines still hit above 50% of the time (hint: they did EASILY) with avg winners at +230 (or more) a 7x bettor would have done quite well. =)

$700 bettor would often pay $1600+ whenever the alts hit.

>>

Type Date Time (ET) Pick Matchup Line H/O Odds A/U Odds Pick% Result
ML 6/1/17 3:40 PM Col Col @ Sea +130 -140 130 44.3 (6-3)
ML 6/1/17 12:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +200 -220 200 34.3 (0-8)
ML 5/31/17 1:10 PM Phi Phi @ Mia +130 -140 125 47.1 (2-10)
ML 5/31/17 6:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +135 -145 135 44.1 (3-1)
ML 5/31/17 7:10 PM Mil Mil @ NYM +165 -175 165 37.5 (7-1)
ML 5/30/17 6:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +155 -165 155 39.7 (4-9)
ML 5/29/17 4:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +220 -240 220 33.9 (3-5)
ML 5/29/17 7:10 PM Phi Phi @ Mia +140 -150 140 43.1 (1-4)
ML 5/29/17 4:10 PM Mil Mil @ NYM +135 -145 135 43.7 (2-4)
ML 5/29/17 7:07 PM Cin Cin @ Tor +180 -190 180 35.1 (2-17)
ML 5/29/17 8:05 PM TB TB @ Tex +130 -140 130 43.2 (10-8)
ML 5/28/17 1:35 PM Sea Sea @ Bos +170 -180 170 42.2 (5-0)
ML 5/28/17 1:35 PM SD SD @ Was +155 -165 155 43.1 (5-3)
ML 5/28/17 4:05 PM Atl Atl @ SF +175 -185 175 39.3 (1-7)
ML 5/28/17 1:05 PM Oak Oak @ NYY +160 -170 160 40.3 (5-9)
ML 5/28/17 1:07 PM Tex Tex @ Tor +150 -165 150 41.7 (3-1)
ML 5/28/17 2:10 PM Bal Bal @ Hou +190 -205 190 34.9 (4-8)
ML 5/27/17 4:05 PM SD SD @ Was +205 -225 205 38.1 (0-3)
ML 5/27/17 7:15 PM NYM NYM @ Pi +130 -135 125 45.3 (4-5)
ML 5/27/17 4:10 PM KC KC @ Cle +165 -175 165 38.1 (5-2)
steeldco
steeldco
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June 3rd, 2017 at 5:31:59 AM permalink
Damn Brewers.....friggin' choke artists......

Yesterday's Results:
 Orioles +120
 Blue Jays +105
 Pirates +104
 Rangers -100
 Brewers -700
 Indians -100
 Athletics -700

Yesterday's results: -1,271
+130dogs -700
Other dogs +129
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -17,576
+130dogs +109
Other dogs -217
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,208
FocusFlips -2,757
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 3rd, 2017 at 7:35:31 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Yankees 127
 Phillies 139 +130Dogs 1X's
 Athletics 105 Focus 7X's
 Brewers 140 FocusFlips 7X's
 White Sox 129
 Diamondbacks 106
 Braves 149 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres -101
 Pirates 121
 Angels -103 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 3rd, 2017 at 9:36:45 PM permalink
Damn Brew Crew again; otherwise good day on the dog plays and the 7x bets;

And Monster day using the "alt" lines (Angels too since they went off as a dog on the "alt").

Heck, Philly's paid near +250. others closer to 200 and change.

**HR ball is back this year in MLB (less small ball grind games). 7 Grand Slams in MLB today - most ever; victory margins are UP.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 4, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2017 at 5:09:47 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Yankees +127
 Phillies +139
 Athletics +735
 Brewers -700
 White Sox -100
 Diamondbacks -100
 Braves +1043
 Padres -101
 Pirates -100
 Angels +700

Yesterday's results: +1,643
+130dogs +1,182
Other dogs -274
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,435
FocusFlips -700

YTD Total -15,933
+130dogs +1,291
Other dogs -491
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -12,773
FocusFlips -3,457
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2017 at 7:18:48 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pirates 108
 Braves 117
 White Sox 180 +130Dogs 1X's
 Diamondbacks 121
 Phillies 108
 Royals 133 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers 118 Focus 7X's
 Angels 104
 Nationals 104
 Rays 118 Focus 7X's
 Padres 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2017 at 5:29:12 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Pirates +108
 Braves +117
 White Sox -100
 Diamondbacks -100
 Phillies +108
 Royals -700
 Rangers -700
 Angels -100
 Nationals +104
 Rays -700
 Padres -100

Yesterday's results: -2,063
+130dogs -800
Other dogs +137
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -17,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -354
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,173
FocusFlips -3,457
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2017 at 5:45:26 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Cardinals -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Phillies 110
 Cubs -125 Focus 7X's
 Royals 125
 Dodgers -126 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 5th, 2017 at 3:21:01 PM permalink
Steel, are you flipping the +130s across the board or picking spots? Also will you be flipping focus ones? I've done quite well on focus flips but typically that applied to all dogs. I think leaning on all dogs was the right play. But leaning on the chalk never seems to work as well.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2017 at 4:12:06 PM permalink
Flipping all +130dogs. No change to anything else. I did this last year and I think I had done it the year before (I'd have to look to be sure of the year before).
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2017 at 4:12:06 PM permalink
Flipping all +130dogs. No change to anything else. I did this last year and I think I had done it the year before (I'd have to look to be sure of the year before).
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 5th, 2017 at 10:17:08 PM permalink
Reds and Nationals both paid on the "alt" line. For whatever reason; you should just stick to dogs with your algo. Whether they be focus flips or the +130 dogs; that has been the sweet spot. Your +130 dogs (even the ones you didn't play or the ones you labeled differently) have been great; And most had more then +1 margins when they hit. Dog flips I'm skeptical of? Also focus flips should have been the default from the jump. Your other picks between -120 to 120 have been coin flips. Lots of season left.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 6th, 2017 at 6:00:15 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Cardinals -980
 Phillies 110
 Cubs 700
 Royals -100
 Dodgers -882

Yesterday's results: -1,152
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +10
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -182
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980

YTD Total -19,148
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -344
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,355
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -980
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 6th, 2017 at 8:40:43 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pirates 114
 Rays -170 DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Phillies 100
 Giants 117
 Mets -143 DogFlips 7X's
 Marlins 180 Focus 7X's
 Astros -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Rockies 106
 Diamondbacks -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Dodgers 103 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 7th, 2017 at 9:32:01 AM permalink
The results of yesterday pretty much made me want to puke this morning.........
I'm going to give the dogflips one more day at 7Xs plays. If they do not do well today, I will be pulling that number down tomorrow since nobody has bottomless pockets. Yesterday was the 2nd. worse day this season.

Yesterday's Results:
 Pirates -100
 Rays -1190
 Tigers -980
 Phillies +100
 Giants -100
 Mets -1001
 Marlins -700
 Astros -980
 Rockies +106
 Diamondbacks +700
 Dodgers -700

Yesterday's results: -4,845
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +6
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,451

YTD Total -23,993
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -338
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,755
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -4,431
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 7th, 2017 at 9:32:58 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Rockies 100
 Dodgers -170 Focus 7X's
 Orioles -147 DogFlips 7X's
 Red Sox 106
 Reds 115
 Cubs -205 DogFlips 7X's
 Rangers -155 DogFlips 7X's
 Giants 116
 Astros -169 DogFlips 7X's
 Twins 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
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June 7th, 2017 at 10:03:43 AM permalink
Yesterday would have been an amazing day (best all season perhaps?) if they were just regular +130 doggos instead of the doggo flips.

:(
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 7th, 2017 at 11:51:28 PM permalink
RS,

Even better if you had played the "alt" lines. All I've seen and tested shows his algo best works on big dogs winning by 2+. Has paid quite well. But some don't wont to be bothered to play or find. Alt lines are "always" available. Just wait on the alt bets until they post a few hours before the game. Heck, one could stick to only day or night games if they don't want to check more than once. I normally just play whatever is still on the board after 2pm PST (early on the weekends)
steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2017 at 5:26:19 AM permalink
Yesterdays' Results:
 Rockies +100
 Dodgers +700
 Orioles +700
 Red Sox -100
 Reds +115
 Cubs -1435
 Rangers -1085
 Giants -100
 Astros -1183
 Twins -100

Yesterday's results: -2,388
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -85
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,003

YTD Total -26,381
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -423
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,055
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,434
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2017 at 5:35:24 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Angels 143 Focus 7X's
 Brewers 128
 Diamondbacks -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Pirates -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Orioles 125
 Red Sox 106
 Phillies 100
 Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
 Astros -180 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 8th, 2017 at 3:18:50 PM permalink
Steel,

I think its tough to win ML on the heavy chalk. You need to hit 66% plus on picks around -200. Most (i.e. all) teams wont even do 60-66% for season remainder and wins will be distributed all over (not just as favs). If you like the chalk for summer, and especially at 7x bet size, then consider normal run-lines which do post with the ML. I like the "alt" line better but either way some form of run lines has been where it's at. There are less 1 run games than typical this season. I don't even thin there was a 1 run game today. Thus run-lines and the alts all paid 150 to 250. Betting -150 or so is often too much juice to overcome when more often than not you can get the fav way cheaper on the runline or just take the dog and get 180 or so and try to hit 35% (which your algo did).
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 8, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
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June 9th, 2017 at 8:13:11 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Angels 1001
 Brewers -100
 Diamondbacks 700
 Pirates -980
 Orioles -100
 Red Sox -100
 Phillies -100
 Cubs -1400
 Astros 700

Yesterday's results: -379
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -400
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,001
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980

YTD Total -26,760
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -823
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,054
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,414
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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Thanked by
RS
June 9th, 2017 at 8:24:00 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Marlins 117
 Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers 121
 Mets -105 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 126
 Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
 Brewers 118
 Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
 Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Royals 105
 Twins 107
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 9th, 2017 at 3:34:42 PM permalink
For those who have PM'd me about playing these picks and other heavy chalk. ***You can also use the "alt" lines to hedge.

For example, if you're playing the Indians today at 7x you will be risking $1820 to win $700. You can hedge this with the "alt" line that pays over 4 to 1 for White Sox, Thus a $450 bet hedges you. If it hits you'll be very happy you bought the insurance.

Basically its about a 85-90% chance of making $250 (or breaking even). And a 10-15% chance of losing big (i.e. 1 run White Sox win; although most of that loss comes from playing the heavy chalk).

Really you end up getting the Indians at around -170 once you hedge with the "alt"; fyi: this bet is designed for those who still think Indians will win but want to limit exposure.

**Without hedge there is a 30%-40% chance of losing big (which you can cut down to 10% or so with an "alt" hedge). Most pro bettors will tell you to be very suspect of implied MLB odds that suggest >70% winner; that's likely many of you are wary of laying the chalk on this one.




Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 Marlins 117
 Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers 121
 Mets -105 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 126
 Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
 Brewers 118
 Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
 Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Royals 105
 Twins 107

Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 9, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
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June 10th, 2017 at 8:23:10 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Marlins +117
 Nationals -1134
 Indians +700
 Tigers -100
 Mets -735
 Orioles -100
 Astros -1169
 Brewers +118
 Blue Jays -861
 Dodgers +700
 Royals -100
 Twins +107

Yesterday's results: -2,457
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +42
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,596
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -903

YTD Total -29,217
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -781
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,650
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,317
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 10th, 2017 at 8:38:29 AM permalink
This is one of those days where I will be staying away from any sharp objects..................

Today's Picks:
 Nationals -170 DogFlips 7X's
 Braves 100
 Athletics 108
 Cardinals -220 DogFlips 7X's
 Twins 140 Focus 7X's
 Pirates 101
 Padres 110 Focus 7X's
 Astros -182 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -210 DogFlips 7X's
 Red Sox -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Yankees -220 DogFlips 7X's
 Mariners 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 10th, 2017 at 6:00:12 PM permalink
Steel,

Your +130 Dogs are still performing. Especially on the "alt" line. You should wait till you have evidence that Vegas chalk starts hitting at above 60%. You need at least 100 games minimum to suggest the algo should be flipped.

Your wallet can get crushed on 7x chalk since your bet size is double the max bet (ie $700) of the dog picks. You now seem to be laying $1400 or more on many games. I'd suggest a hedge, to your followers, like a mentioned yesterday. You can still win big but if the chalk picks fail you can offset most of the risk/loss.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 11th, 2017 at 9:15:45 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Nationals -1190
 Braves -100
 Athletics -100
 Cardinals 700
 Twins 980
 Pirates 101
 Padres -700
 Astros 700
 Indians -1470
 Red Sox 700
 Yankees 700
 Mariners -100

Yesterday's results: +221
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -199
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +280
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +140

YTD Total -28,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -980
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,177
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 11th, 2017 at 9:28:19 AM permalink
Once again, a ridiculous number of picks. Wife is disappointed about putting away the sharp objects again.

Today's Picks:
 Yankees -170 DogFlips 7X's
 Rays -205 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Pirates -162 DogFlips 7X's
 Braves -145 DogFlips 7X's
 Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
 Dodgers -175 DogFlips 7X's
 Royals 100
 Red Sox -153 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 12th, 2017 at 5:37:11 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Yankees +700
 Rays +700
 Indians +700
 Pirates +700
 Braves -1015
 Cubs +700
 Dodgers +700
 Royals +100
 Red Sox -1071

Yesterday's results: +2,214
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +2,114

YTD Total -26,782
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -880
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,063
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 12th, 2017 at 5:48:15 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Rockies 125
 Cubs 120
 Red Sox -205 DogFlips 7X's
 White Sox 103
 Mariners 110
 Angels 114 Focus 7X's
 Reds 110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 12th, 2017 at 3:51:31 PM permalink
Nice day on the "flips" maybe the chalk will take over. I'll need more data points until I switch away from dogs. Either way your should be using the runline though. 1 run games are less common than typical as offense if on the up; especially HRs.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 13th, 2017 at 6:32:05 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rockies -100
 Cubs -100
 Red Sox 700
 White Sox 103
 Mariners 110
 Angels -700
 Reds -100

Yesterday's results: -87
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -87
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +700

YTD Total -26,869
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -967
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -16,070
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -6,363
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 13th, 2017 at 6:51:42 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
 Rockies 105
 Nationals -215 DogFlips 7X's
 Blue Jays -150 DogFlips 7X's
 Red Sox -245 DogFlips 7X's
 Athletics 110
 Tigers 103
 Mets 120
 Dodgers -157 DogFlips 7X's
 Mariners 108
 White Sox 103
 Angels 118 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 13th, 2017 at 9:20:44 PM permalink
Looking at all your picks now that they favorite the chalk. The winning picks would all have won anyhow even if using the runline (sans the Sox). That's leaving 50 to 100 points on the table per winning bet at the cost of maybe 1 or 2 bets out of 10 winners. Have you tracked/measured this affect? Run Lines are available as soon as the ML posts and the added juice if often the best risk/reward for the event. You still need to hit bets placed near 50% but way better than the 66.6% one needs when they average -200 chalk picks.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 14th, 2017 at 6:03:20 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Looking at all your picks now that they favorite the chalk. The winning picks would all have won anyhow even if using the runline (sans the Sox). That's leaving 50 to 100 points on the table per winning bet at the cost of maybe 1 or 2 bets out of 10 winners. Have you tracked/measured this affect? Run Lines are available as soon as the ML posts and the added juice if often the best risk/reward for the event. You still need to hit bets placed near 50% but way better than the 66.6% one needs when they average -200 chalk picks.



Thanks. I'll take a look at it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 14th, 2017 at 6:04:39 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Cardinals +700
 Rockies -100
 Nationals +700
 Blue Jays -1050
 Red Sox +700
 Athletics -100
 Tigers -100
 Mets -100
 Dodgers +700
 Mariners -100
 White Sox +103
 Angels +826

Yesterday's results: +2,179
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -397
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +826
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +1,750

YTD Total -24,690
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,364
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,244
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -4,613
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 14th, 2017 at 6:20:38 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Reds 118
 Giants -176 DogFlips 7X's
 Nationals -161 DogFlips 7X's
 Phillies 118 Focus 7X's
 Pirates 100
 Blue Jays -145 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
 Diamondbacks 123
 Mets 105
 Mariners 125
 Orioles -120 Focus 7X's
 Cardinals -167 DogFlips 7X's
 Angels 125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 15th, 2017 at 9:22:14 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Reds -100
 Giants -1232
 Nationals -1127
 Phillies -700
 Pirates -100
 Blue Jays 700
 Indians -1050
 Diamondbacks 123
 Mets 105
 Mariners 125
 Orioles 700
 Cardinals -1169
 Angels 125

Yesterday's results: -3,600
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +278
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,878

YTD Total -28,290
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,086
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,244
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,491
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 15th, 2017 at 9:33:28 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Mariners 115
 White Sox -102
 Red Sox -230 DogFlips 7X's
 Mets 102
 Brewers 129
 Rockies -158 DogFlips 7X's
 Athletics 100 Focus 7X's
 Royals 119
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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June 15th, 2017 at 9:46:50 AM permalink
I've never posted in this thread but I follow your picks daily (I don't bet, just love baseball so your thread intrigues me) and I was wondering at what point you might start scaling back your bets or if you don't plan to? At this rate you're on pace to lose close to $90,000. I'm not saying you can't turn it around and still have a winning season but I was just wondering if you had a stop loss? Anyways good luck with the betting and go Red Sox!!! 😊
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 15th, 2017 at 10:04:02 AM permalink
His picks have been great for +130 dog and "alt" line players. I suspect they do well on the runline too once the chalk starts hitting more consistent. The problem isn't the algo but how he applies it. There are many who are up but they use these picks other than presented.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 15th, 2017 at 10:05:37 AM permalink
Hey PokerGrinder, the thought of scaling back has occurred and I even posted that thought on this thread. Fortunately, things turned a bit for the better and I put it off. The issue at this point is that the only group with a statistically significant sample size and the one in which I wouldn't scale back on is the +130dogs and they won't be back for a few weeks. Of the others, the Focus picks had intrigued me when I started them. They hadn't reached a statistically significant sample size and I really never should have increased the size on those. Screw up on my part. Those are the ones that I will most likely scale back here shortly unless they turn.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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June 15th, 2017 at 10:08:56 AM permalink
Interesting. Thanks for the response. Beating the books is so tough so I'm always rooting for anybody who tries to do it.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 15th, 2017 at 11:20:25 AM permalink
Steel,

If the +130 algo had merit (it did) play the alt line. If your Focus chalk picks become significant now that it is Summer than play the run line. You did the hard part by devising a system that can pick out patterns in dogs and favs. Now the next part (the easy part) is to monetize it. I'm not sure why you don't see that 1 run margins are uneventful in the context of your algos picks. Thus picks up the extra 50 to 100 points. Your blind followers will appreciate, other who PM me have already made the adjustment..

Quote: steeldco

Hey PokerGrinder, the thought of scaling back has occurred and I even posted that thought on this thread. Fortunately, things turned a bit for the better and I put it off. The issue at this point is that the only group with a statistically significant sample size and the one in which I wouldn't scale back on is the +130dogs and they won't be back for a few weeks. Of the others, the Focus picks had intrigued me when I started them. They hadn't reached a statistically significant sample size and I really never should have increased the size on those. Screw up on my part. Those are the ones that I will most likely scale back here shortly unless they turn.

vegas
vegas
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June 15th, 2017 at 3:23:31 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

If the +130 algo had merit (it did) play the alt line. If your Focus chalk picks become significant now that it is Summer than play the run line. You did the hard part by devising a system that can pick out patterns in dogs and favs. Now the next part (the easy part) is to monetize it. I'm not sure why you don't see that 1 run margins are uneventful in the context of your algos picks. Thus picks up the extra 50 to 100 points. Your blind followers will appreciate, other who PM me have already made the adjustment..





Baz
You have mentioned this many...many times. I know Steel has heard you but he is not interested. It is his system and for now he wants to play it his way.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 15th, 2017 at 9:15:04 PM permalink
Vegas,

I don't really post to change anyone's mind, in fact I'm pretty sure he and others plays picks other than what the tracking would suggest. It's more for my own MLB betting, as well the few who use his picks in a right way and PM me.

His picks are quite useful. There should/could be many who are up more than 100 betting units. A few have taken the time to read my posts and backtested what I've said.

Heck, everyone here is trying to beat the book.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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June 15th, 2017 at 10:09:57 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Baz
You have mentioned this many...many times. I know Steel has heard you but he is not interested. It is his system and for now he wants to play it his way.



vegas,

I had a similar impression of Bazooka posts, but I went back and read about the last 3 weeks or so. steel said Baz was "welcome" to continue to post his ideas based on steels lines, even though steel.himself would not be applying Baz advice at this time. It appeared to be genuine, not a polite brushoff.

So I decided not to brush Baz back. I believe it reads like haranguing, but steel is not taking it that way, so it can continue as long as the intent is to be helpful, not disparaging, of what steel is posting.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
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