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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 14th, 2017 at 6:10:36 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Blue Jays -143 Focus 7X's
 Marlins 136 +130Dogs 7X's
 Brewers 116
 Indians -163
 Rays 121 Focus 7X's
 White Sox 131 +130Dogs 7X's
 Athletics 131 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers 133 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 14th, 2017 at 11:02:35 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

bazooooka, sorry for the slow response. It's just that I am rarely on a site in the evening. My evenings are devoted to wife, family, friends,

HOW DARE YOU?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 14th, 2017 at 2:57:57 PM permalink
No worries; you can get back to me whenever is convenient.

However, can you speak more how you constructed your algorithm? It seems to lean toward road dogs on the +130. What else are you looking for in your generated picks?

**As for the 7x bet size I'd have to assume your normal bet is much less then 2% of bankroll since 7X would be 14% and any strategy can/will lose 7 in a row and then your wiped out. Even money line favorites that hit above 60-65 % winners still often lose 7 in a row.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 14th, 2017 at 3:29:27 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

No worries; you can get back to me whenever is convenient.

However, can you speak more how you constructed your algorithm? It seems to lean toward road dogs on the +130. What else are you looking for in your generated picks?

**As for the 7x bet size I'd have to assume your normal bet is much less then 2% of bankroll since 7X would be 14% and any strategy can/will lose 7 in a row and then your wiped out. Even money line favorites that hit above 60-65 % winners still often lose 7 in a row.



I'm not going to get into how the algorithm was constructed since there are many variables with many changes and additions through the several years of development. I can tell you what I started with and that was a belief that GOOD PITCHING DOESN'T BEAT GOOD HITTING. I can tell you that I wasn't entirely right about that, but it led me down interesting paths.

As far as your belief that even money line favorites often lose 7 in a row, I can tell you that last year the +130dogs never lost more than 5 days in a row. It happened only once. Only twice did it get to 4 consecutive losing days. And these are picks that are on average much larger dogs than even money picks.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 14th, 2017 at 4:05:48 PM permalink
I meant just 7 bets in a row (not days). You seem to average around five 7x bets per day so five days in a row of pure losses would be 25 bets or so. I dont think you'd ever miss that many in a row.

I was just saying that if 7x bets were sized against a normal 2% per bet then you'd have 14% of bankroll online for every 7x bet. Thus one bad day/streak could nearly wipe you out.

I assume you must be betting a tiny percentage of your bankroll on your normal 1 unit bets. Most players I know play 1% to 3%. But for you to be able to scale a sytem to 7x suggests that your normal bet size is well under 1% of bank roll or there will be times when your bankroll negative on the year. Variance will wipe you out regardless of how good system is unless bet sized appropriate.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
Joined: May 13, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolf
April 14th, 2017 at 9:13:19 PM permalink
That maybe correct, but steeldco is not offering a system but a record of selection that may or may not help those of us who have no idea re selection of MLB teams. It's up to you how you use information provided. Start a new thread with your recommendations re betting using steeldco tips. From following this thread for a few years I can tell you my betting account is doing very well from the tips provided. I use a different betting method than most other people, it works for me and I know that as many people there are on this planet is only half of the suggested best betting strategies that have been walked through this site. Thanks once again steeldco for tips and thanks for not charging us for the great service. Thanks. Enjoy week end.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 15th, 2017 at 6:06:35 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

I meant just 7 bets in a row (not days). You seem to average around five 7x bets per day so five days in a row of pure losses would be 25 bets or so. I dont think you'd ever miss that many in a row.

I was just saying that if 7x bets were sized against a normal 2% per bet then you'd have 14% of bankroll online for every 7x bet. Thus one bad day/streak could nearly wipe you out.

I assume you must be betting a tiny percentage of your bankroll on your normal 1 unit bets. Most players I know play 1% to 3%. But for you to be able to scale a sytem to 7x suggests that your normal bet size is well under 1% of bank roll or there will be times when your bankroll negative on the year. Variance will wipe you out regardless of how good system is unless bet sized appropriate.



OK. If you're talking about consecutive bets lost then last year the max consecutive loss number was 6. It happened twice.

In addition, another winning year this year will cause me to increase the 7X's max next year. I won't know how much I'll be taking it up until the end of the year, but it will be going up.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 15th, 2017 at 6:08:02 AM permalink
Quote: beachmonkey

That maybe correct, but steeldco is not offering a system but a record of selection that may or may not help those of us who have no idea re selection of MLB teams. It's up to you how you use information provided. Start a new thread with your recommendations re betting using steeldco tips. From following this thread for a few years I can tell you my betting account is doing very well from the tips provided. I use a different betting method than most other people, it works for me and I know that as many people there are on this planet is only half of the suggested best betting strategies that have been walked through this site. Thanks once again steeldco for tips and thanks for not charging us for the great service. Thanks. Enjoy week end.



Thanks beachmonkey and you're welcome!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 15th, 2017 at 6:17:15 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Blue Jays -1001
 Marlins +952
 Brewers +116
 Indians -163
 Rays +847
 White Sox +917
 Athletics -700
 Rangers -700

Yesterday's results: +268
+130dogs +469
Other dogs +116
Favorites -163
Focus Picks -154

YTD Total +3,649
+130dogs +4,725
Other dogs +132
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -329
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
Joined: May 13, 2015
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April 15th, 2017 at 7:05:39 AM permalink
Shoot to be honest I missed that perfect round the other week. No biggie as I know I get another one soon. I did manage a little anti perfect round the other day though, as you know I will bet against myself on occasion. So I don't mind your occasional odd total loss day as they are just as profitable days for me. Win ,win ,more bricks. Ha ha thanks.i managed to watch last game last season with an American friend of mine who happened to be a cub fan. Great day. He's in his sixties so it was good to get the historical and emotional touch to the event rather than just a betting/financial event. All good. I'm sure this season will be just as exciting for all of us. Thanks

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