2017 MLB Money Line Picks
June 15th, 2017 at 10:33:42 PM
permalink
Beach,
I'm not sure what impression you have of my posts. Is there anything to police? Maybe you should take a poll to see if I'm hurting this thread (in some way)?
Would you prefer less post traffic? I post here since I'm here reading Steel's picks daily. Actually some great idea exchange has happened online and off (with other players) well beyond what you see in the thread.
I'm not sure what impression you have of my posts. Is there anything to police? Maybe you should take a poll to see if I'm hurting this thread (in some way)?
Would you prefer less post traffic? I post here since I'm here reading Steel's picks daily. Actually some great idea exchange has happened online and off (with other players) well beyond what you see in the thread.
June 16th, 2017 at 5:19:16 AM
permalink
Just as brief explanation as to why I started this. First, and foremost, it was because I thought it'd be fun to do. Secondly, I have always believed that, with proper hard work and focus, someone can develop algorithms that work in picking sports as long as the games are honest.
I appreciate keeping this board civil and I also appreciate the discussion. bazooooka, just one thought for you. You would do well by everyone if you would post these picks that you want to me to track on your own. You're welcome to do so here. I allocate a limited amount of time to this stuff. Typically in the mornings and I do not wish to turn it into a full time job by updating throughout the day.
I appreciate keeping this board civil and I also appreciate the discussion. bazooooka, just one thought for you. You would do well by everyone if you would post these picks that you want to me to track on your own. You're welcome to do so here. I allocate a limited amount of time to this stuff. Typically in the mornings and I do not wish to turn it into a full time job by updating throughout the day.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 16th, 2017 at 5:29:17 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Mariners -100
White Sox 100
Red Sox -1610
Mets -100
Brewers 129
Rockies 700
Athletics 700
Royals 119
Yesterday's results: -62
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +48
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -910
YTD Total -28,352
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,038
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,544
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,401
Mariners -100
White Sox 100
Red Sox -1610
Mets -100
Brewers 129
Rockies 700
Athletics 700
Royals 119
Yesterday's results: -62
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +48
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -910
YTD Total -28,352
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,038
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,544
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,401
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 16th, 2017 at 5:36:46 AM
permalink
Another day where I'm just going to have to keep my eyes closed............
Today's Picks:
Pirates 105
Orioles 113
Blue Jays -155 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -150 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -153 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 100
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Brewers -163 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 101
Astros -111 Focus 7X's
Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
Giants 101
Yankees -140 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 110
Today's Picks:
Pirates 105
Orioles 113
Blue Jays -155 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -150 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -153 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 100
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Brewers -163 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 101
Astros -111 Focus 7X's
Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
Giants 101
Yankees -140 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 16th, 2017 at 9:24:51 AM
permalink
Red Sox 101
Astros -111
????
Astros -111
????
June 16th, 2017 at 10:04:31 AM
permalink
Quote: bazooookaA few have taken the time to read my posts and backtested what I've said.
I would be very interested in seeing the methods and results.
I just went through every time steel bet a favorite for $700 and checked what the results would have been if it was at -1.5 instead of the moneyline, using Pinnaclesports closing lines. The result would have been -$15,491. This is a better result than betting the game lines only because less money was bet overall. The return on investment was very close (less than 1%, -16%, compared to -15%); 23% of winners turned into losers
Finding closing lines (or any lines) on alternate run lines takes a lot more digging, but sometime later this week I'll look through William Hill lines to back test the results of all the $700 underdogs bet and see how they would have done against -1.5 lines. Again, if you could share the methods and the results you got, it would be helpful
June 16th, 2017 at 12:48:46 PM
permalink
Quote: RSRed Sox 101
Astros -111
Since the Astros are a x7, one would think that is the one he would go with. Then again, how did both appear?
June 16th, 2017 at 2:00:59 PM
permalink
Quote: RSRed Sox 101
Astros -111
????
Sorry RS. Was running out for an early morning meeting and screwed up.
Picks should be:
Blue Jays DogFlips 7X's
Tigers DogFlips 7X's
Nationals DogFlips 7X's
Marlins
Mariners DogFlips 7X's
Brewers DogFlips 7X's
Astros Focus 7X's
Indians DogFlips 7X's
Giants
Yankees DogFlips 7X's
Royals
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 16th, 2017 at 3:30:42 PM
permalink
You are on the right track, You should look at all his 2017 underdog mlb picks. And all +125 dogs (regardless how they were labeled them),. And his 7x underdogs vs 7x chalk picks
**You will be Happy what the "alt" line shows you. I hope you post for the rest of us.
NOTE: As for recent picks, Steel has switched his picks but not his algo (ie he plays the "Dog Flips").
I suspect that these should be tracked from Summer or from mid July; but if you want to start from when Steel flipped them that works. I'm not a huge fan and I still am playing the dogs. I have less faith in big chalk picks and typically easy pickins in MLB is gone come Summer.
In my own system I was play the dog side of the dog flips and will likely taper these off by month end.
****But if I were to switch to a chalk player then I'd switch to "runline" on anything past -135
**You will be Happy what the "alt" line shows you. I hope you post for the rest of us.
NOTE: As for recent picks, Steel has switched his picks but not his algo (ie he plays the "Dog Flips").
I suspect that these should be tracked from Summer or from mid July; but if you want to start from when Steel flipped them that works. I'm not a huge fan and I still am playing the dogs. I have less faith in big chalk picks and typically easy pickins in MLB is gone come Summer.
In my own system I was play the dog side of the dog flips and will likely taper these off by month end.
****But if I were to switch to a chalk player then I'd switch to "runline" on anything past -135
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 16, 2017
June 16th, 2017 at 3:50:30 PM
permalink
Steel, I'm going to to take the alt line against your DogFlips hoping to hit 33%.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 16, 2017
June 16th, 2017 at 5:44:41 PM
permalink
Where are you getting these lines? 5dimes currently has Oakland +215 and Kansas City +155. These bets will win because they beat market price, it says absolutely nothing about -1.5 being better than the money line. I'll take the Angels -175 and the Royals +180 each for the max, please
June 16th, 2017 at 6:10:54 PM
permalink
Oak went off at +220 on the alt. The pick is a good punt even at +200 whether it won or lost. Even if As win game by 1 run that's still much cheaper bet than losing a heavy chalk play. Also the Angels went off at -185 run line and -185 alt line. You can box these if you play lines against each other and bet against a 1 run game happening (20% or so).
*To me a good box is when there are high team totals and O/U lines. But a lot of work with small limits though.
An algo that can pick dog winners is my preferred way to play (Steel's does/did).
And, if you get +200 dogs, they only need to hit 1/3rd the time. If/when I don't like the +200 dog then sidelines (or runline) is my play. ***Most people don't play the alts since they don't like losing 60%-70% of the time; I don't mind since they makes $$$ (and that's the point of this game).
*To me a good box is when there are high team totals and O/U lines. But a lot of work with small limits though.
An algo that can pick dog winners is my preferred way to play (Steel's does/did).
And, if you get +200 dogs, they only need to hit 1/3rd the time. If/when I don't like the +200 dog then sidelines (or runline) is my play. ***Most people don't play the alts since they don't like losing 60%-70% of the time; I don't mind since they makes $$$ (and that's the point of this game).
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 16, 2017
June 17th, 2017 at 7:12:23 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Pirates -100
Orioles -100
Blue Jays -1085
Tigers 700
Nationals 700
Marlins 100
Mariners -980
Brewers 700
Astros -777
Indians 700
Giants -100
Yankees -980
Royals 110
Yesterday's results: -1,112
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -90
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -777
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -245
YTD Total -29,464
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,128
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -15,321
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,646
Pirates -100
Orioles -100
Blue Jays -1085
Tigers 700
Nationals 700
Marlins 100
Mariners -980
Brewers 700
Astros -777
Indians 700
Giants -100
Yankees -980
Royals 110
Yesterday's results: -1,112
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -90
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -777
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -245
YTD Total -29,464
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,128
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -15,321
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,646
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 17th, 2017 at 7:25:08 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Blue Jays -240 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 126
Rockies -170 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 115 Focus 7X's
Phillies 110
Cardinals 100
Reds 142 Focus 7X's
Nationals -150 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -103
Mariners 110
Angels -130 Focus 7X's
Astros -112 Focus 7X's
Blue Jays -240 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 126
Rockies -170 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 115 Focus 7X's
Phillies 110
Cardinals 100
Reds 142 Focus 7X's
Nationals -150 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -103
Mariners 110
Angels -130 Focus 7X's
Astros -112 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 17th, 2017 at 4:54:59 PM
permalink
Home teams alts > +200 normally hit more than 1/3rd. And all +200 alts have done decent this year. Night games also have a very small home edge beyond the usual. Thus BallPark effect vs pitcher effect; and mediocre/poor pitchers have larger home/away splits. Those are things you need to look at when picking alt lines.
6913 CHC 1½ RL +1½-265
8:15 PM 6914 PIT 1½ RL -1½+225
Jun 17 6925 BOS 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6926 HOU 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 17 6927 KAN 1½ RL -1½+200
8:15 PM 6928 LAA 1½ RL +1½-230
Jun 17 6931 CLE 1½ RL G2 +1½-250
8:10 PM 6932 MIN 1½ RL G2 -1½+210
6913 CHC 1½ RL +1½-265
8:15 PM 6914 PIT 1½ RL -1½+225
Jun 17 6925 BOS 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6926 HOU 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 17 6927 KAN 1½ RL -1½+200
8:15 PM 6928 LAA 1½ RL +1½-230
Jun 17 6931 CLE 1½ RL G2 +1½-250
8:10 PM 6932 MIN 1½ RL G2 -1½+210
June 18th, 2017 at 6:11:49 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Blue Jays -1680
Twins -100
Rockies 700
Athletics 805
Phillies -100
Cardinals -100
Reds -700
Nationals 700
Tigers -103
Mariners -100
Angels 700
Astros 700
Yesterday's results: +722
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -503
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,505
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -280
YTD Total -28,742
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,631
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,816
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,926
Blue Jays -1680
Twins -100
Rockies 700
Athletics 805
Phillies -100
Cardinals -100
Reds -700
Nationals 700
Tigers -103
Mariners -100
Angels 700
Astros 700
Yesterday's results: +722
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -503
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,505
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -280
YTD Total -28,742
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,631
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,816
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,926
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 18th, 2017 at 6:31:04 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Blue Jays -180 Focus 7X's
Nationals 125
Dodgers -167 DogFlips 7X's
Orioles 101
Marlins 100 Focus 7X's
Twins 125
Rangers -200 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -155 DogFlips 7X's
Angels -105 Focus 7X's
Athletics -105 Focus 7X's
Red Sox 105
Blue Jays -180 Focus 7X's
Nationals 125
Dodgers -167 DogFlips 7X's
Orioles 101
Marlins 100 Focus 7X's
Twins 125
Rangers -200 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -155 DogFlips 7X's
Angels -105 Focus 7X's
Athletics -105 Focus 7X's
Red Sox 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 19th, 2017 at 5:30:16 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Blue Jays 700
Nationals -100
Dodgers 700
Orioles 101
Marlins -700
Twins -100
Rangers -1400
Rockies 700
Angels -735
Athletics 700
Red Sox 105
Yesterday's results: -29
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +6
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -35
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips 0
YTD Total -28,771
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,625
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,851
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,926
Blue Jays 700
Nationals -100
Dodgers 700
Orioles 101
Marlins -700
Twins -100
Rangers -1400
Rockies 700
Angels -735
Athletics 700
Red Sox 105
Yesterday's results: -29
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +6
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -35
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips 0
YTD Total -28,771
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,625
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,851
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,926
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 19th, 2017 at 6:56:51 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Indians -151 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins -102
Reds 126 Focus 7X's
Pirates -120 Focus 7X's
Rangers 110
Cubs -210 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 100 Focus 7X's
Athletics 123 Focus 7X's
Mariners -141 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -151 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins -102
Reds 126 Focus 7X's
Pirates -120 Focus 7X's
Rangers 110
Cubs -210 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 100 Focus 7X's
Athletics 123 Focus 7X's
Mariners -141 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 20th, 2017 at 7:19:11 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Indians +700
Marlins +100
Reds +700
Pirates +700
Rangers -100
Cubs +700
Red Sox -700
Athletics -700
Mariners +700
Yesterday's results: +2,100
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +2,100
YTD Total -26,671
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,625
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,851
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,826
Indians +700
Marlins +100
Reds +700
Pirates +700
Rangers -100
Cubs +700
Red Sox -700
Athletics -700
Mariners +700
Yesterday's results: +2,100
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +2,100
YTD Total -26,671
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,625
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -13,851
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,826
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 20th, 2017 at 9:26:52 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Cardinals -150 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -140 DogFlips 7X's
Rays -145 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 105
Giants 101
Pirates 105
Red Sox -180 DogFlips 7X's
Diamondbacks 100 Focus 7X's
Astros -101
Dodgers -200 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers 125
Cardinals -150 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -140 DogFlips 7X's
Rays -145 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 105
Giants 101
Pirates 105
Red Sox -180 DogFlips 7X's
Diamondbacks 100 Focus 7X's
Astros -101
Dodgers -200 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers 125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 21st, 2017 at 5:20:41 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals +700
Indians -980
Rays +700
Marlins -100
Giants +101
Pirates +105
Red Sox +700
Diamondbacks -700
Astros +100
Dodgers +700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: +1,226
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +106
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +1,820
YTD Total -25,445
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,519
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -6,006
Cardinals +700
Indians -980
Rays +700
Marlins -100
Giants +101
Pirates +105
Red Sox +700
Diamondbacks -700
Astros +100
Dodgers +700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: +1,226
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +106
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +1,820
YTD Total -25,445
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,519
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -6,006
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 21st, 2017 at 5:33:06 AM
permalink
Wow........this is liable to suck.
Today's Picks:
Nationals -155 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -200 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -160 DogFlips 7X's
Twins -190 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -150 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Today's Picks:
Nationals -155 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -200 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -160 DogFlips 7X's
Twins -190 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -150 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 21st, 2017 at 6:15:05 AM
permalink
Revised Picks for Today:
Nationals -155 DogFlips 7X's
Reds 128
Red Sox -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -200 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -160 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates 114
Twins -190 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -150 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -155 DogFlips 7X's
Reds 128
Red Sox -140 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -200 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -160 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates 114
Twins -190 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies -150 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 22nd, 2017 at 4:25:30 AM
permalink
A couple of real heart breaking losses yesterday with the Nats and Red Sox.............
Yesterday's Results:
Nationals -1085
Reds -100
Red Sox -980
Yankees +700
Indians +700
Pirates -100
Twins +700
Rockies -1050
Dodgers +700
Mariners +700
Yesterday's results: +185
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +385
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
Yesterday's Results:
Nationals -1085
Reds -100
Red Sox -980
Yankees +700
Indians +700
Pirates -100
Twins +700
Rockies -1050
Dodgers +700
Mariners +700
Yesterday's results: +185
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +385
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 22nd, 2017 at 4:35:16 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 110
Rangers 125
Pirates 105
Diamondbacks 100
Athletics 120 Focus 7X's
Orioles 115 Focus 7X's
Yankees -250 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 184 Focus 7X's
Tigers 104
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 110
Rangers 125
Pirates 105
Diamondbacks 100
Athletics 120 Focus 7X's
Orioles 115 Focus 7X's
Yankees -250 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 184 Focus 7X's
Tigers 104
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 22nd, 2017 at 10:21:37 PM
permalink
Yanks and Cards picks paid over 350 and 250 respectively on the "alt". That's $600 payout for only $200 at risk. While others risked $400 (and lost) to win $200.
The algo picks "dogs". Don't flip them just play them as "alts". You would have been up HUGE ytd. and some dog players are indeed based on posts I've seen.
Alts make money if you hit them around 35% I'm waiting for someone to go through you picks and prove me wrong. But I know what the account balance says.
The algo picks "dogs". Don't flip them just play them as "alts". You would have been up HUGE ytd. and some dog players are indeed based on posts I've seen.
Alts make money if you hit them around 35% I'm waiting for someone to go through you picks and prove me wrong. But I know what the account balance says.
Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 110
Rangers 125
Pirates 105
Diamondbacks 100
Athletics 120 Focus 7X's
Orioles 115 Focus 7X's
Yankees -250 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 184 Focus 7X's
Tigers 104
June 23rd, 2017 at 7:02:12 AM
permalink
I'll have to look to be sure, but it seems like the Yankees have killed me so far this year.............rotten friggin' day nonetheless.
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs 491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs 491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2017 at 7:35:14 AM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoI'll have to look to be sure, but it seems like the Yankees have killed me so far this year.............rotten friggin' day nonetheless.
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -25,260
+130dogs 491
Other dogs -1,719
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,551
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -5,621
I don't think the YTD totals were adjusted for last nights action
June 23rd, 2017 at 7:42:01 AM
permalink
Quote: michael99000I don't think the YTD totals were adjusted for last nights action
Thanks Michael.......I guess that I'm too pissed to see straight...
Revised Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -1015
Twins -100
Rangers +125
Pirates -100
Diamondbacks +100
Athletics -700
Orioles -700
Yankees -1750
Mets -700
Tigers -100
Yesterday's results: -4,940
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -75
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -2,100
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -2,765
YTD Total -30,200
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,794
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,651
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,386
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2017 at 8:42:46 AM
permalink
I am crying uncle and limiting my future 7x's, or more (thinking about it), on the +130dogs only.
Today's Picks:
Rangers 108
Indians -180 DogFlips
Red Sox -170 DogFlips
Rays -190 DogFlips
Marlins 113
Braves -104
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
Astros 110
Padres 105
Mets 115
Today's Picks:
Rangers 108
Indians -180 DogFlips
Red Sox -170 DogFlips
Rays -190 DogFlips
Marlins 113
Braves -104
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
Astros 110
Padres 105
Mets 115
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2017 at 11:50:48 AM
permalink
For those who have asked me about "alt" lines.
Lately they have posting earlier. Normally by 10am PST. You might want to consider all the ones at +235 or more. If you can hit 3 out of 10 (or better) you will PROFIT. If your "dog" algo already likes the matchup then it will like the "alt" since 1 run margins are near random and only have affected around 15% of my plays. Could be the rabbit ball this year. Heck; I take a look at all "alts" above +180 which correlates highly with your +130 dogs.
**Rockies today at +320 looks like a good punt. Hit these types 1 out of 4 and still make good profit. Rockies are solid team and their pitcher, arguably, has a better career than Dodger's Wood to date. Sure Wood is 7-0 but never was an ace before thus I'll fade Wood today since the line is inflated. Lines reflects the recent rather than the normalized. Yes,dodgers likely will win today but really it'd be closer to 65/35 if this matchup was played 100 times. Make these types of "alt" bets 100 times and you will hit enough to overcome the vig. Think long term.
Jun 23 6901 CIN 1½ RL -1½+345
7:05 PM 6902 WAS 1½ RL +1½-445
Jun 23 6903 CHC 1½ RL +1½-245
7:10 PM 6904 MIA 1½ RL -1½+195
Jun 23 6905 MIL 1½ RL +1½-220
7:35 PM 6906 ATL 1½ RL -1½+170
Jun 23 6907 PIT 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6908 STL 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6909 PHI 1½ RL -1½+265
9:40 PM 6910 ARI 1½ RL +1½-335
Jun 23 6911 COL 1½ RL -1½+320
10:10 PM 6912 LAD 1½ RL +1½-420
Jun 23 6913 NYM 1½ RL -1½+170
10:15 PM 6914 SFO 1½ RL +1½-220
Jun 23 6915 TEX 1½ RL -1½+160
7:05 PM 6916 NYY 1½ RL +1½-200
Jun 23 6917 BAL 1½ RL -1½+270
7:10 PM 6918 TAM 1½ RL +1½-350
Jun 23 6919 LAA 1½ RL -1½+220
7:10 PM 6920 BOS 1½ RL +1½-280
Jun 23 6921 MIN 1½ RL -1½+240
7:10 PM 6922 CLE 1½ RL +1½-300
Jun 23 6923 OAK 1½ RL +1½-210
8:10 PM 6924 CWS 1½ RL -1½+165
Jun 23 6925 TOR 1½ RL +1½-290
8:15 PM 6926 KAN 1½ RL -1½+230
Jun 23 6927 HOU 1½ RL -1½+165
10:10 PM 6928 SEA 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6929 DET 1½ RL +1½-250
10:10 PM 6930 SDG 1½ RL -1½+200
Lately they have posting earlier. Normally by 10am PST. You might want to consider all the ones at +235 or more. If you can hit 3 out of 10 (or better) you will PROFIT. If your "dog" algo already likes the matchup then it will like the "alt" since 1 run margins are near random and only have affected around 15% of my plays. Could be the rabbit ball this year. Heck; I take a look at all "alts" above +180 which correlates highly with your +130 dogs.
**Rockies today at +320 looks like a good punt. Hit these types 1 out of 4 and still make good profit. Rockies are solid team and their pitcher, arguably, has a better career than Dodger's Wood to date. Sure Wood is 7-0 but never was an ace before thus I'll fade Wood today since the line is inflated. Lines reflects the recent rather than the normalized. Yes,dodgers likely will win today but really it'd be closer to 65/35 if this matchup was played 100 times. Make these types of "alt" bets 100 times and you will hit enough to overcome the vig. Think long term.
Jun 23 6901 CIN 1½ RL -1½+345
7:05 PM 6902 WAS 1½ RL +1½-445
Jun 23 6903 CHC 1½ RL +1½-245
7:10 PM 6904 MIA 1½ RL -1½+195
Jun 23 6905 MIL 1½ RL +1½-220
7:35 PM 6906 ATL 1½ RL -1½+170
Jun 23 6907 PIT 1½ RL -1½+165
8:15 PM 6908 STL 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6909 PHI 1½ RL -1½+265
9:40 PM 6910 ARI 1½ RL +1½-335
Jun 23 6911 COL 1½ RL -1½+320
10:10 PM 6912 LAD 1½ RL +1½-420
Jun 23 6913 NYM 1½ RL -1½+170
10:15 PM 6914 SFO 1½ RL +1½-220
Jun 23 6915 TEX 1½ RL -1½+160
7:05 PM 6916 NYY 1½ RL +1½-200
Jun 23 6917 BAL 1½ RL -1½+270
7:10 PM 6918 TAM 1½ RL +1½-350
Jun 23 6919 LAA 1½ RL -1½+220
7:10 PM 6920 BOS 1½ RL +1½-280
Jun 23 6921 MIN 1½ RL -1½+240
7:10 PM 6922 CLE 1½ RL +1½-300
Jun 23 6923 OAK 1½ RL +1½-210
8:10 PM 6924 CWS 1½ RL -1½+165
Jun 23 6925 TOR 1½ RL +1½-290
8:15 PM 6926 KAN 1½ RL -1½+230
Jun 23 6927 HOU 1½ RL -1½+165
10:10 PM 6928 SEA 1½ RL +1½-210
Jun 23 6929 DET 1½ RL +1½-250
10:10 PM 6930 SDG 1½ RL -1½+200
Quote: steeldcoI am crying uncle and limiting my future 7x's, or more (thinking about it), on the +130dogs only.
Today's Picks:
Rangers 108
Indians -180 DogFlips
Red Sox -170 DogFlips
Rays -190 DogFlips
Marlins 113
Braves -104
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140 DogFlips
Astros 110
Padres 105
Mets 115
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 23, 2017
June 23rd, 2017 at 7:35:03 PM
permalink
Not to put vinegar in the wound, as they say....but what would have happened if you had continued betting the 130 dogs instead of the dogflips? (I'm assuming dogflips are opposite of 130 dogs?) Have you or someone else been keeping the records on that?
June 24th, 2017 at 6:31:01 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Rangers -100
Indians -180
Red Sox +100
Rays +100
Marlins +100
Braves +100
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140
Astros -100
Padres +105
Mets +115
Yesterday's results: -2
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +118
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -120
YTD Total -30,202
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,676
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,651
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,506
Rangers -100
Indians -180
Red Sox +100
Rays +100
Marlins +100
Braves +100
White Sox -102
Blue Jays -140
Astros -100
Padres +105
Mets +115
Yesterday's results: -2
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +118
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -120
YTD Total -30,202
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,676
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,651
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,506
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 24th, 2017 at 6:47:31 AM
permalink
Quote: RSNot to put vinegar in the wound, as they say....but what would have happened if you had continued betting the 130 dogs instead of the dogflips? (I'm assuming dogflips are opposite of 130 dogs?) Have you or someone else been keeping the records on that?
RS, not having flipped the +130dogs would have produced a gain of +6,776. All of the gains, and consequently all of the losses on the dogflips, occurred during the first 5 days after having made the change. Since the flips have been OK in the past, I would think that I need to better refine the date on which I make the change to dogflips. Just a continual learning process in addition to sheer stupidity on my part in playing the dogflips at 7X's.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 24th, 2017 at 7:32:24 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Royals -102 Focus
Nationals -155 DogFlips
Twins 210 Focus
Brewers -104
Rays -153 DogFlips
Mets -102
Red Sox -175 DogFlips
Astros -150 DogFlips
Diamondbacks -210 DogFlips
Royals -102 Focus
Nationals -155 DogFlips
Twins 210 Focus
Brewers -104
Rays -153 DogFlips
Mets -102
Red Sox -175 DogFlips
Astros -150 DogFlips
Diamondbacks -210 DogFlips
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 24th, 2017 at 3:49:48 PM
permalink
The logic behind dog flip is solid in that it wont hit 40% on dogs as Summer progresses. Reversion to the mean and the Vegas odds makers learning curve ensures this. Playing +130 for the whole season will indeed slip. But the answer isn't dog flips. The answer has always been "alts" which is essentially is +130 dogs with juice. Only now needing to hit on the alt 75% of the time (which they have). As much energy many put in to sniff out upsets; monetize that. If one goes back and looks they will see around 75% of all your winning +130 hit on the alt and you would have averaged around +190 on those winners.
June 25th, 2017 at 7:27:13 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Royals +100
Nationals +100
Twins +210
Brewers -104
Rays -153
Mets +100
Red Sox +100
Astros +100
Diamondbacks +100
Yesterday's results: 553
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -4
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +310
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +247
YTD Total -29,649
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,680
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,341
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,259
Royals +100
Nationals +100
Twins +210
Brewers -104
Rays -153
Mets +100
Red Sox +100
Astros +100
Diamondbacks +100
Yesterday's results: 553
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -4
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +310
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +247
YTD Total -29,649
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,680
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,341
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,259
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 25th, 2017 at 7:35:10 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Twins 142 Focus
Rays -154 DogFlips
Marlins 111
Nationals -142 DogFlips
White Sox 116
Royals 100 Focus
Diamondbacks -200 DogFlips
Padres 100 Focus
Twins 142 Focus
Rays -154 DogFlips
Marlins 111
Nationals -142 DogFlips
White Sox 116
Royals 100 Focus
Diamondbacks -200 DogFlips
Padres 100 Focus
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 26th, 2017 at 5:21:45 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Twins +142
Rays -154
Marlins +111
Nationals -142
White Sox -100
Royals -100
Diamondbacks +100
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: -243
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +11
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -58
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -196
YTD Total -29,892
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,455
Twins +142
Rays -154
Marlins +111
Nationals -142
White Sox -100
Royals -100
Diamondbacks +100
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: -243
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +11
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -58
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -196
YTD Total -29,892
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,455
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 26th, 2017 at 5:30:43 AM
permalink
Today's Orders:
Cardinals -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -205 DogFlips
White Sox 140 FocusFlips
Dodgers -210 DogFlips
Cardinals -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -205 DogFlips
White Sox 140 FocusFlips
Dodgers -210 DogFlips
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 26th, 2017 at 8:02:03 AM
permalink
I'll flip your Dogflips. Just need one to hit.
>>
Jun 26 6951 PHI 1½ RL -1½+325
3:40 PM 6952 ARI 1½ RL +1½-425
Jun 26 6953 CHC 1½ RL -1½+195
7:05 PM 6954 WAS 1½ RL +1½-245
Jun 26 6955 COL 1½ RL
10:05 PM 6956 SFO 1½ RL
Jun 26 6957 TEX 1½ RL -1½+230
7:10 PM 6958 CLE 1½ RL +1½-290
Jun 26 6959 MIN 1½ RL -1½+300
7:10 PM 6960 BOS 1½ RL +1½-400
Jun 26 6961 NYY 1½ RL +1½-325
8:10 PM 6962 CWS 1½ RL -1½+255
Jun 26 6963 LAA 1½ RL -1½+285
10:10 PM 6964 LAD 1½ RL +1½-365
Jun 26 6965 CIN 1½ RL -1½+215
4:15 PM 6966 STL 1½ RL +1½-270
>>
Jun 26 6951 PHI 1½ RL -1½+325
3:40 PM 6952 ARI 1½ RL +1½-425
Jun 26 6953 CHC 1½ RL -1½+195
7:05 PM 6954 WAS 1½ RL +1½-245
Jun 26 6955 COL 1½ RL
10:05 PM 6956 SFO 1½ RL
Jun 26 6957 TEX 1½ RL -1½+230
7:10 PM 6958 CLE 1½ RL +1½-290
Jun 26 6959 MIN 1½ RL -1½+300
7:10 PM 6960 BOS 1½ RL +1½-400
Jun 26 6961 NYY 1½ RL +1½-325
8:10 PM 6962 CWS 1½ RL -1½+255
Jun 26 6963 LAA 1½ RL -1½+285
10:10 PM 6964 LAD 1½ RL +1½-365
Jun 26 6965 CIN 1½ RL -1½+215
4:15 PM 6966 STL 1½ RL +1½-270
Quote: steeldcoToday's Orders:
Cardinals -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -205 DogFlips
White Sox 140FocusFlips
Dodgers -210DogFlips
June 26th, 2017 at 8:20:43 AM
permalink
bazooooka, I wish I can say that I wish you luck, but I can't do it since it negatively impacts me.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 26th, 2017 at 1:23:31 PM
permalink
I'll settle just on an Angels "W". I can go 1 for 3 on the +130s and still make $85 (or $595 at 7x).
Where you will need to hit all 3 to make money if your betting +200 chalk since one loss and your $200 in the hole. 2 losses and your really up the creek. Much easier to aim for 30% or higher and picks your spots with the alts.
We all should hope that your +130 algo has year round value. If it does than you can always play it straight or with alts as the Summer progresses.
I feel like you have something in those algo dog picks. It's made me, and a few, a ton so far. =)
**THOSE who NEED to play chalk then the runline is the better call this year of the "rabbit ball". With runline plays you only need to be right about 50% on the heavy favs. Still you will always get better odds on dogs as squares love the favs.
Where you will need to hit all 3 to make money if your betting +200 chalk since one loss and your $200 in the hole. 2 losses and your really up the creek. Much easier to aim for 30% or higher and picks your spots with the alts.
We all should hope that your +130 algo has year round value. If it does than you can always play it straight or with alts as the Summer progresses.
I feel like you have something in those algo dog picks. It's made me, and a few, a ton so far. =)
**THOSE who NEED to play chalk then the runline is the better call this year of the "rabbit ball". With runline plays you only need to be right about 50% on the heavy favs. Still you will always get better odds on dogs as squares love the favs.
Quote: steeldcobazooooka, I wish I can say that I wish you luck, but I can't do it since it negatively impacts me.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 26, 2017
June 27th, 2017 at 8:57:32 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals +100
Red Sox +100
White Sox -100
Dodgers -210
Yesterday's results: -110
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips -100
DogFlips -10
YTD Total -30,002
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,465
Cardinals +100
Red Sox +100
White Sox -100
Dodgers -210
Yesterday's results: -110
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips -100
DogFlips -10
YTD Total -30,002
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,399
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,465
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 27th, 2017 at 9:07:12 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Rays -102
Marlins -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -200 DogFlips
Tigers -170 DogFlips
Brewers 117
Astros -167 DogFlips
Cardinals -120 Focus
Dodgers -220 DogFlips
Rays -102
Marlins -150 DogFlips
Red Sox -200 DogFlips
Tigers -170 DogFlips
Brewers 117
Astros -167 DogFlips
Cardinals -120 Focus
Dodgers -220 DogFlips
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 28th, 2017 at 4:30:48 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Rays +100
Marlins +100
Red Sox +100
Tigers +100
Brewers -100
Astros -167
Cardinals -120
Dodgers +100
Yesterday's results: +113
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -120
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +233
YTD Total -29,889
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,519
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,232
Rays +100
Marlins +100
Red Sox +100
Tigers +100
Brewers -100
Astros -167
Cardinals -120
Dodgers +100
Yesterday's results: +113
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -120
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +233
YTD Total -29,889
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,669
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,519
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,232
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 28th, 2017 at 4:52:29 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Giants -102
Nationals -170 DogFlips
Mets 105
Royals 125
Astros -180 DogFlips
White Sox 115
Cardinals 126 Focus
Giants -102
Nationals -170 DogFlips
Mets 105
Royals 125
Astros -180 DogFlips
White Sox 115
Cardinals 126 Focus
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 29th, 2017 at 2:08:27 AM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Giants -102
Nationals -170 DogFlips
Mets 105
Royals 125
Astros -180 DogFlips
White Sox 115
Cardinals 126 Focus
Nice day Steel!
What is life if not a gamble?
