2017 MLB Money Line Picks
June 2nd, 2017 at 7:44:36 PM
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Dodgers pulled out the "W". But the dog payoff was still a worthy punt no matter how it turned.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 2, 2017
June 2nd, 2017 at 7:55:53 PM
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djatc jinxed it.
June 3rd, 2017 at 12:42:15 AM
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Just looking at some of these recent away dogs you can see they cover the "alt" lines and not just the ML. And many did at +150 or more (thus you can often add 80-100 pts to the ML).
And if these "alt" lines still hit above 50% of the time (hint: they did EASILY) with avg winners at +230 (or more) a 7x bettor would have done quite well. =)
$700 bettor would often pay $1600+ whenever the alts hit.
>>
Type Date Time (ET) Pick Matchup Line H/O Odds A/U Odds Pick% Result
ML 6/1/17 3:40 PM Col Col @ Sea +130 -140 130 44.3 (6-3)
ML 6/1/17 12:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +200 -220 200 34.3 (0-8)
ML 5/31/17 1:10 PM Phi Phi @ Mia +130 -140 125 47.1 (2-10)
ML 5/31/17 6:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +135 -145 135 44.1 (3-1)
ML 5/31/17 7:10 PM Mil Mil @ NYM +165 -175 165 37.5 (7-1)
ML 5/30/17 6:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +155 -165 155 39.7 (4-9)
ML 5/29/17 4:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +220 -240 220 33.9 (3-5)
ML 5/29/17 7:10 PM Phi Phi @ Mia +140 -150 140 43.1 (1-4)
ML 5/29/17 4:10 PM Mil Mil @ NYM +135 -145 135 43.7 (2-4)
ML 5/29/17 7:07 PM Cin Cin @ Tor +180 -190 180 35.1 (2-17)
ML 5/29/17 8:05 PM TB TB @ Tex +130 -140 130 43.2 (10-8)
ML 5/28/17 1:35 PM Sea Sea @ Bos +170 -180 170 42.2 (5-0)
ML 5/28/17 1:35 PM SD SD @ Was +155 -165 155 43.1 (5-3)
ML 5/28/17 4:05 PM Atl Atl @ SF +175 -185 175 39.3 (1-7)
ML 5/28/17 1:05 PM Oak Oak @ NYY +160 -170 160 40.3 (5-9)
ML 5/28/17 1:07 PM Tex Tex @ Tor +150 -165 150 41.7 (3-1)
ML 5/28/17 2:10 PM Bal Bal @ Hou +190 -205 190 34.9 (4-8)
ML 5/27/17 4:05 PM SD SD @ Was +205 -225 205 38.1 (0-3)
ML 5/27/17 7:15 PM NYM NYM @ Pi +130 -135 125 45.3 (4-5)
ML 5/27/17 4:10 PM KC KC @ Cle +165 -175 165 38.1 (5-2)
And if these "alt" lines still hit above 50% of the time (hint: they did EASILY) with avg winners at +230 (or more) a 7x bettor would have done quite well. =)
$700 bettor would often pay $1600+ whenever the alts hit.
>>
Type Date Time (ET) Pick Matchup Line H/O Odds A/U Odds Pick% Result
ML 6/1/17 3:40 PM Col Col @ Sea +130 -140 130 44.3 (6-3)
ML 6/1/17 12:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +200 -220 200 34.3 (0-8)
ML 5/31/17 1:10 PM Phi Phi @ Mia +130 -140 125 47.1 (2-10)
ML 5/31/17 6:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +135 -145 135 44.1 (3-1)
ML 5/31/17 7:10 PM Mil Mil @ NYM +165 -175 165 37.5 (7-1)
ML 5/30/17 6:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +155 -165 155 39.7 (4-9)
ML 5/29/17 4:10 PM Oak Oak @ Cle +220 -240 220 33.9 (3-5)
ML 5/29/17 7:10 PM Phi Phi @ Mia +140 -150 140 43.1 (1-4)
ML 5/29/17 4:10 PM Mil Mil @ NYM +135 -145 135 43.7 (2-4)
ML 5/29/17 7:07 PM Cin Cin @ Tor +180 -190 180 35.1 (2-17)
ML 5/29/17 8:05 PM TB TB @ Tex +130 -140 130 43.2 (10-8)
ML 5/28/17 1:35 PM Sea Sea @ Bos +170 -180 170 42.2 (5-0)
ML 5/28/17 1:35 PM SD SD @ Was +155 -165 155 43.1 (5-3)
ML 5/28/17 4:05 PM Atl Atl @ SF +175 -185 175 39.3 (1-7)
ML 5/28/17 1:05 PM Oak Oak @ NYY +160 -170 160 40.3 (5-9)
ML 5/28/17 1:07 PM Tex Tex @ Tor +150 -165 150 41.7 (3-1)
ML 5/28/17 2:10 PM Bal Bal @ Hou +190 -205 190 34.9 (4-8)
ML 5/27/17 4:05 PM SD SD @ Was +205 -225 205 38.1 (0-3)
ML 5/27/17 7:15 PM NYM NYM @ Pi +130 -135 125 45.3 (4-5)
ML 5/27/17 4:10 PM KC KC @ Cle +165 -175 165 38.1 (5-2)
June 3rd, 2017 at 5:31:59 AM
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Damn Brewers.....friggin' choke artists......
Yesterday's Results:
Orioles +120
Blue Jays +105
Pirates +104
Rangers -100
Brewers -700
Indians -100
Athletics -700
Yesterday's results: -1,271
+130dogs -700
Other dogs +129
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -17,576
+130dogs +109
Other dogs -217
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,208
FocusFlips -2,757
Yesterday's Results:
Orioles +120
Blue Jays +105
Pirates +104
Rangers -100
Brewers -700
Indians -100
Athletics -700
Yesterday's results: -1,271
+130dogs -700
Other dogs +129
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -17,576
+130dogs +109
Other dogs -217
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,208
FocusFlips -2,757
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2017 at 7:35:31 AM
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Today's Picks:
Yankees 127
Phillies 139 +130Dogs 1X's
Athletics 105 Focus 7X's
Brewers 140 FocusFlips 7X's
White Sox 129
Diamondbacks 106
Braves 149 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres -101
Pirates 121
Angels -103 Focus 7X's
Yankees 127
Phillies 139 +130Dogs 1X's
Athletics 105 Focus 7X's
Brewers 140 FocusFlips 7X's
White Sox 129
Diamondbacks 106
Braves 149 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres -101
Pirates 121
Angels -103 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2017 at 9:36:45 PM
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Damn Brew Crew again; otherwise good day on the dog plays and the 7x bets;
And Monster day using the "alt" lines (Angels too since they went off as a dog on the "alt").
Heck, Philly's paid near +250. others closer to 200 and change.
**HR ball is back this year in MLB (less small ball grind games). 7 Grand Slams in MLB today - most ever; victory margins are UP.
And Monster day using the "alt" lines (Angels too since they went off as a dog on the "alt").
Heck, Philly's paid near +250. others closer to 200 and change.
**HR ball is back this year in MLB (less small ball grind games). 7 Grand Slams in MLB today - most ever; victory margins are UP.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 4, 2017
June 4th, 2017 at 5:09:47 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Yankees +127
Phillies +139
Athletics +735
Brewers -700
White Sox -100
Diamondbacks -100
Braves +1043
Padres -101
Pirates -100
Angels +700
Yesterday's results: +1,643
+130dogs +1,182
Other dogs -274
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,435
FocusFlips -700
YTD Total -15,933
+130dogs +1,291
Other dogs -491
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -12,773
FocusFlips -3,457
Yankees +127
Phillies +139
Athletics +735
Brewers -700
White Sox -100
Diamondbacks -100
Braves +1043
Padres -101
Pirates -100
Angels +700
Yesterday's results: +1,643
+130dogs +1,182
Other dogs -274
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,435
FocusFlips -700
YTD Total -15,933
+130dogs +1,291
Other dogs -491
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -12,773
FocusFlips -3,457
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 4th, 2017 at 7:18:48 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pirates 108
Braves 117
White Sox 180 +130Dogs 1X's
Diamondbacks 121
Phillies 108
Royals 133 +130Dogs 7X's
Rangers 118 Focus 7X's
Angels 104
Nationals 104
Rays 118 Focus 7X's
Padres 105
Pirates 108
Braves 117
White Sox 180 +130Dogs 1X's
Diamondbacks 121
Phillies 108
Royals 133 +130Dogs 7X's
Rangers 118 Focus 7X's
Angels 104
Nationals 104
Rays 118 Focus 7X's
Padres 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2017 at 5:29:12 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Pirates +108
Braves +117
White Sox -100
Diamondbacks -100
Phillies +108
Royals -700
Rangers -700
Angels -100
Nationals +104
Rays -700
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: -2,063
+130dogs -800
Other dogs +137
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -17,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -354
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,173
FocusFlips -3,457
Pirates +108
Braves +117
White Sox -100
Diamondbacks -100
Phillies +108
Royals -700
Rangers -700
Angels -100
Nationals +104
Rays -700
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: -2,063
+130dogs -800
Other dogs +137
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -17,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -354
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,173
FocusFlips -3,457
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2017 at 5:45:26 AM
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Today's Picks:
Cardinals -140 DogFlips 7X's
Phillies 110
Cubs -125 Focus 7X's
Royals 125
Dodgers -126 Focus 7X's
Cardinals -140 DogFlips 7X's
Phillies 110
Cubs -125 Focus 7X's
Royals 125
Dodgers -126 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2017 at 3:21:01 PM
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Steel, are you flipping the +130s across the board or picking spots? Also will you be flipping focus ones? I've done quite well on focus flips but typically that applied to all dogs. I think leaning on all dogs was the right play. But leaning on the chalk never seems to work as well.
June 5th, 2017 at 4:12:06 PM
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Flipping all +130dogs. No change to anything else. I did this last year and I think I had done it the year before (I'd have to look to be sure of the year before).
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2017 at 4:12:06 PM
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Flipping all +130dogs. No change to anything else. I did this last year and I think I had done it the year before (I'd have to look to be sure of the year before).
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2017 at 10:17:08 PM
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Reds and Nationals both paid on the "alt" line. For whatever reason; you should just stick to dogs with your algo. Whether they be focus flips or the +130 dogs; that has been the sweet spot. Your +130 dogs (even the ones you didn't play or the ones you labeled differently) have been great; And most had more then +1 margins when they hit. Dog flips I'm skeptical of? Also focus flips should have been the default from the jump. Your other picks between -120 to 120 have been coin flips. Lots of season left.
June 6th, 2017 at 6:00:15 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals -980
Phillies 110
Cubs 700
Royals -100
Dodgers -882
Yesterday's results: -1,152
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +10
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -182
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980
YTD Total -19,148
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -344
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,355
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -980
Cardinals -980
Phillies 110
Cubs 700
Royals -100
Dodgers -882
Yesterday's results: -1,152
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +10
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -182
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980
YTD Total -19,148
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -344
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,355
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -980
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 6th, 2017 at 8:40:43 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pirates 114
Rays -170 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -140 DogFlips 7X's
Phillies 100
Giants 117
Mets -143 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 180 Focus 7X's
Astros -140 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies 106
Diamondbacks -190 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers 103 Focus 7X's
Pirates 114
Rays -170 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers -140 DogFlips 7X's
Phillies 100
Giants 117
Mets -143 DogFlips 7X's
Marlins 180 Focus 7X's
Astros -140 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies 106
Diamondbacks -190 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers 103 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2017 at 9:32:01 AM
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The results of yesterday pretty much made me want to puke this morning.........
I'm going to give the dogflips one more day at 7Xs plays. If they do not do well today, I will be pulling that number down tomorrow since nobody has bottomless pockets. Yesterday was the 2nd. worse day this season.
Yesterday's Results:
Pirates -100
Rays -1190
Tigers -980
Phillies +100
Giants -100
Mets -1001
Marlins -700
Astros -980
Rockies +106
Diamondbacks +700
Dodgers -700
Yesterday's results: -4,845
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +6
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,451
YTD Total -23,993
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -338
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,755
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -4,431
I'm going to give the dogflips one more day at 7Xs plays. If they do not do well today, I will be pulling that number down tomorrow since nobody has bottomless pockets. Yesterday was the 2nd. worse day this season.
Yesterday's Results:
Pirates -100
Rays -1190
Tigers -980
Phillies +100
Giants -100
Mets -1001
Marlins -700
Astros -980
Rockies +106
Diamondbacks +700
Dodgers -700
Yesterday's results: -4,845
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +6
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,400
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,451
YTD Total -23,993
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -338
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,755
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -4,431
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2017 at 9:32:58 AM
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Today's Picks:
Rockies 100
Dodgers -170 Focus 7X's
Orioles -147 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 106
Reds 115
Cubs -205 DogFlips 7X's
Rangers -155 DogFlips 7X's
Giants 116
Astros -169 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 105
Rockies 100
Dodgers -170 Focus 7X's
Orioles -147 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox 106
Reds 115
Cubs -205 DogFlips 7X's
Rangers -155 DogFlips 7X's
Giants 116
Astros -169 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2017 at 10:03:43 AM
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Yesterday would have been an amazing day (best all season perhaps?) if they were just regular +130 doggos instead of the doggo flips.
:(
:(
June 7th, 2017 at 11:51:28 PM
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RS,
Even better if you had played the "alt" lines. All I've seen and tested shows his algo best works on big dogs winning by 2+. Has paid quite well. But some don't wont to be bothered to play or find. Alt lines are "always" available. Just wait on the alt bets until they post a few hours before the game. Heck, one could stick to only day or night games if they don't want to check more than once. I normally just play whatever is still on the board after 2pm PST (early on the weekends)
Even better if you had played the "alt" lines. All I've seen and tested shows his algo best works on big dogs winning by 2+. Has paid quite well. But some don't wont to be bothered to play or find. Alt lines are "always" available. Just wait on the alt bets until they post a few hours before the game. Heck, one could stick to only day or night games if they don't want to check more than once. I normally just play whatever is still on the board after 2pm PST (early on the weekends)
June 8th, 2017 at 5:26:19 AM
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Yesterdays' Results:
Rockies +100
Dodgers +700
Orioles +700
Red Sox -100
Reds +115
Cubs -1435
Rangers -1085
Giants -100
Astros -1183
Twins -100
Yesterday's results: -2,388
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -85
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,003
YTD Total -26,381
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -423
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,055
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,434
Rockies +100
Dodgers +700
Orioles +700
Red Sox -100
Reds +115
Cubs -1435
Rangers -1085
Giants -100
Astros -1183
Twins -100
Yesterday's results: -2,388
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -85
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,003
YTD Total -26,381
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -423
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,055
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,434
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 8th, 2017 at 5:35:24 AM
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Today's Picks:
Angels 143 Focus 7X's
Brewers 128
Diamondbacks -140 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates -140 DogFlips 7X's
Orioles 125
Red Sox 106
Phillies 100
Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
Astros -180 DogFlips 7X's
Angels 143 Focus 7X's
Brewers 128
Diamondbacks -140 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates -140 DogFlips 7X's
Orioles 125
Red Sox 106
Phillies 100
Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
Astros -180 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 8th, 2017 at 3:18:50 PM
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Steel,
I think its tough to win ML on the heavy chalk. You need to hit 66% plus on picks around -200. Most (i.e. all) teams wont even do 60-66% for season remainder and wins will be distributed all over (not just as favs). If you like the chalk for summer, and especially at 7x bet size, then consider normal run-lines which do post with the ML. I like the "alt" line better but either way some form of run lines has been where it's at. There are less 1 run games than typical this season. I don't even thin there was a 1 run game today. Thus run-lines and the alts all paid 150 to 250. Betting -150 or so is often too much juice to overcome when more often than not you can get the fav way cheaper on the runline or just take the dog and get 180 or so and try to hit 35% (which your algo did).
I think its tough to win ML on the heavy chalk. You need to hit 66% plus on picks around -200. Most (i.e. all) teams wont even do 60-66% for season remainder and wins will be distributed all over (not just as favs). If you like the chalk for summer, and especially at 7x bet size, then consider normal run-lines which do post with the ML. I like the "alt" line better but either way some form of run lines has been where it's at. There are less 1 run games than typical this season. I don't even thin there was a 1 run game today. Thus run-lines and the alts all paid 150 to 250. Betting -150 or so is often too much juice to overcome when more often than not you can get the fav way cheaper on the runline or just take the dog and get 180 or so and try to hit 35% (which your algo did).
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 8, 2017
June 9th, 2017 at 8:13:11 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Angels 1001
Brewers -100
Diamondbacks 700
Pirates -980
Orioles -100
Red Sox -100
Phillies -100
Cubs -1400
Astros 700
Yesterday's results: -379
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -400
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,001
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980
YTD Total -26,760
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -823
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,054
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,414
Angels 1001
Brewers -100
Diamondbacks 700
Pirates -980
Orioles -100
Red Sox -100
Phillies -100
Cubs -1400
Astros 700
Yesterday's results: -379
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -400
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,001
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980
YTD Total -26,760
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -823
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,054
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,414
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 9th, 2017 at 8:24:00 AM
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Today's Picks:
Marlins 117
Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers 121
Mets -105 Focus 7X's
Orioles 126
Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
Brewers 118
Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 105
Twins 107
Marlins 117
Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers 121
Mets -105 Focus 7X's
Orioles 126
Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
Brewers 118
Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 105
Twins 107
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 9th, 2017 at 3:34:42 PM
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For those who have PM'd me about playing these picks and other heavy chalk. ***You can also use the "alt" lines to hedge.
For example, if you're playing the Indians today at 7x you will be risking $1820 to win $700. You can hedge this with the "alt" line that pays over 4 to 1 for White Sox, Thus a $450 bet hedges you. If it hits you'll be very happy you bought the insurance.
Basically its about a 85-90% chance of making $250 (or breaking even). And a 10-15% chance of losing big (i.e. 1 run White Sox win; although most of that loss comes from playing the heavy chalk).
Really you end up getting the Indians at around -170 once you hedge with the "alt"; fyi: this bet is designed for those who still think Indians will win but want to limit exposure.
**Without hedge there is a 30%-40% chance of losing big (which you can cut down to 10% or so with an "alt" hedge). Most pro bettors will tell you to be very suspect of implied MLB odds that suggest >70% winner; that's likely many of you are wary of laying the chalk on this one.
For example, if you're playing the Indians today at 7x you will be risking $1820 to win $700. You can hedge this with the "alt" line that pays over 4 to 1 for White Sox, Thus a $450 bet hedges you. If it hits you'll be very happy you bought the insurance.
Basically its about a 85-90% chance of making $250 (or breaking even). And a 10-15% chance of losing big (i.e. 1 run White Sox win; although most of that loss comes from playing the heavy chalk).
Really you end up getting the Indians at around -170 once you hedge with the "alt"; fyi: this bet is designed for those who still think Indians will win but want to limit exposure.
**Without hedge there is a 30%-40% chance of losing big (which you can cut down to 10% or so with an "alt" hedge). Most pro bettors will tell you to be very suspect of implied MLB odds that suggest >70% winner; that's likely many of you are wary of laying the chalk on this one.
Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Marlins 117
Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
Tigers 121
Mets -105 Focus 7X's
Orioles 126
Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
Brewers 118
Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 105
Twins 107
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 9, 2017
June 10th, 2017 at 8:23:10 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Marlins +117
Nationals -1134
Indians +700
Tigers -100
Mets -735
Orioles -100
Astros -1169
Brewers +118
Blue Jays -861
Dodgers +700
Royals -100
Twins +107
Yesterday's results: -2,457
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +42
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,596
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -903
YTD Total -29,217
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -781
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,650
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,317
Marlins +117
Nationals -1134
Indians +700
Tigers -100
Mets -735
Orioles -100
Astros -1169
Brewers +118
Blue Jays -861
Dodgers +700
Royals -100
Twins +107
Yesterday's results: -2,457
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +42
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,596
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -903
YTD Total -29,217
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -781
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,650
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,317
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 10th, 2017 at 8:38:29 AM
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This is one of those days where I will be staying away from any sharp objects..................
Today's Picks:
Nationals -170 DogFlips 7X's
Braves 100
Athletics 108
Cardinals -220 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 140 Focus 7X's
Pirates 101
Padres 110 Focus 7X's
Astros -182 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -210 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -190 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -220 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners 105
Today's Picks:
Nationals -170 DogFlips 7X's
Braves 100
Athletics 108
Cardinals -220 DogFlips 7X's
Twins 140 Focus 7X's
Pirates 101
Padres 110 Focus 7X's
Astros -182 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -210 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -190 DogFlips 7X's
Yankees -220 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 10th, 2017 at 6:00:12 PM
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Steel,
Your +130 Dogs are still performing. Especially on the "alt" line. You should wait till you have evidence that Vegas chalk starts hitting at above 60%. You need at least 100 games minimum to suggest the algo should be flipped.
Your wallet can get crushed on 7x chalk since your bet size is double the max bet (ie $700) of the dog picks. You now seem to be laying $1400 or more on many games. I'd suggest a hedge, to your followers, like a mentioned yesterday. You can still win big but if the chalk picks fail you can offset most of the risk/loss.
Your +130 Dogs are still performing. Especially on the "alt" line. You should wait till you have evidence that Vegas chalk starts hitting at above 60%. You need at least 100 games minimum to suggest the algo should be flipped.
Your wallet can get crushed on 7x chalk since your bet size is double the max bet (ie $700) of the dog picks. You now seem to be laying $1400 or more on many games. I'd suggest a hedge, to your followers, like a mentioned yesterday. You can still win big but if the chalk picks fail you can offset most of the risk/loss.
June 11th, 2017 at 9:15:45 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Nationals -1190
Braves -100
Athletics -100
Cardinals 700
Twins 980
Pirates 101
Padres -700
Astros 700
Indians -1470
Red Sox 700
Yankees 700
Mariners -100
Yesterday's results: +221
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -199
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +280
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +140
YTD Total -28,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -980
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,177
Nationals -1190
Braves -100
Athletics -100
Cardinals 700
Twins 980
Pirates 101
Padres -700
Astros 700
Indians -1470
Red Sox 700
Yankees 700
Mariners -100
Yesterday's results: +221
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -199
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +280
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +140
YTD Total -28,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -980
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,177
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 11th, 2017 at 9:28:19 AM
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Once again, a ridiculous number of picks. Wife is disappointed about putting away the sharp objects again.
Today's Picks:
Yankees -170 DogFlips 7X's
Rays -205 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -190 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates -162 DogFlips 7X's
Braves -145 DogFlips 7X's
Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -175 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 100
Red Sox -153 DogFlips 7X's
Today's Picks:
Yankees -170 DogFlips 7X's
Rays -205 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -190 DogFlips 7X's
Pirates -162 DogFlips 7X's
Braves -145 DogFlips 7X's
Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
Dodgers -175 DogFlips 7X's
Royals 100
Red Sox -153 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 12th, 2017 at 5:37:11 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Yankees +700
Rays +700
Indians +700
Pirates +700
Braves -1015
Cubs +700
Dodgers +700
Royals +100
Red Sox -1071
Yesterday's results: +2,214
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +2,114
YTD Total -26,782
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -880
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,063
Yankees +700
Rays +700
Indians +700
Pirates +700
Braves -1015
Cubs +700
Dodgers +700
Royals +100
Red Sox -1071
Yesterday's results: +2,214
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +2,114
YTD Total -26,782
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -880
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,063
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 12th, 2017 at 5:48:15 AM
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Today's Picks:
Rockies 125
Cubs 120
Red Sox -205 DogFlips 7X's
White Sox 103
Mariners 110
Angels 114 Focus 7X's
Reds 110
Rockies 125
Cubs 120
Red Sox -205 DogFlips 7X's
White Sox 103
Mariners 110
Angels 114 Focus 7X's
Reds 110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 12th, 2017 at 3:51:31 PM
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Nice day on the "flips" maybe the chalk will take over. I'll need more data points until I switch away from dogs. Either way your should be using the runline though. 1 run games are less common than typical as offense if on the up; especially HRs.
June 13th, 2017 at 6:32:05 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Rockies -100
Cubs -100
Red Sox 700
White Sox 103
Mariners 110
Angels -700
Reds -100
Yesterday's results: -87
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -87
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +700
YTD Total -26,869
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -967
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -16,070
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -6,363
Rockies -100
Cubs -100
Red Sox 700
White Sox 103
Mariners 110
Angels -700
Reds -100
Yesterday's results: -87
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -87
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +700
YTD Total -26,869
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -967
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -16,070
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -6,363
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 13th, 2017 at 6:51:42 AM
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Today's Picks:
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies 105
Nationals -215 DogFlips 7X's
Blue Jays -150 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -245 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 110
Tigers 103
Mets 120
Dodgers -157 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners 108
White Sox 103
Angels 118 Focus 7X's
Cardinals -145 DogFlips 7X's
Rockies 105
Nationals -215 DogFlips 7X's
Blue Jays -150 DogFlips 7X's
Red Sox -245 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 110
Tigers 103
Mets 120
Dodgers -157 DogFlips 7X's
Mariners 108
White Sox 103
Angels 118 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 13th, 2017 at 9:20:44 PM
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Looking at all your picks now that they favorite the chalk. The winning picks would all have won anyhow even if using the runline (sans the Sox). That's leaving 50 to 100 points on the table per winning bet at the cost of maybe 1 or 2 bets out of 10 winners. Have you tracked/measured this affect? Run Lines are available as soon as the ML posts and the added juice if often the best risk/reward for the event. You still need to hit bets placed near 50% but way better than the 66.6% one needs when they average -200 chalk picks.
June 14th, 2017 at 6:03:20 AM
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Quote: bazooookaLooking at all your picks now that they favorite the chalk. The winning picks would all have won anyhow even if using the runline (sans the Sox). That's leaving 50 to 100 points on the table per winning bet at the cost of maybe 1 or 2 bets out of 10 winners. Have you tracked/measured this affect? Run Lines are available as soon as the ML posts and the added juice if often the best risk/reward for the event. You still need to hit bets placed near 50% but way better than the 66.6% one needs when they average -200 chalk picks.
Thanks. I'll take a look at it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 14th, 2017 at 6:04:39 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals +700
Rockies -100
Nationals +700
Blue Jays -1050
Red Sox +700
Athletics -100
Tigers -100
Mets -100
Dodgers +700
Mariners -100
White Sox +103
Angels +826
Yesterday's results: +2,179
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -397
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +826
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +1,750
YTD Total -24,690
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,364
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,244
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -4,613
Cardinals +700
Rockies -100
Nationals +700
Blue Jays -1050
Red Sox +700
Athletics -100
Tigers -100
Mets -100
Dodgers +700
Mariners -100
White Sox +103
Angels +826
Yesterday's results: +2,179
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -397
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +826
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +1,750
YTD Total -24,690
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,364
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,244
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -4,613
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 14th, 2017 at 6:20:38 AM
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Today's Picks:
Reds 118
Giants -176 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -161 DogFlips 7X's
Phillies 118 Focus 7X's
Pirates 100
Blue Jays -145 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
Diamondbacks 123
Mets 105
Mariners 125
Orioles -120 Focus 7X's
Cardinals -167 DogFlips 7X's
Angels 125
Reds 118
Giants -176 DogFlips 7X's
Nationals -161 DogFlips 7X's
Phillies 118 Focus 7X's
Pirates 100
Blue Jays -145 DogFlips 7X's
Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
Diamondbacks 123
Mets 105
Mariners 125
Orioles -120 Focus 7X's
Cardinals -167 DogFlips 7X's
Angels 125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 15th, 2017 at 9:22:14 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Reds -100
Giants -1232
Nationals -1127
Phillies -700
Pirates -100
Blue Jays 700
Indians -1050
Diamondbacks 123
Mets 105
Mariners 125
Orioles 700
Cardinals -1169
Angels 125
Yesterday's results: -3,600
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +278
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,878
YTD Total -28,290
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,086
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,244
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,491
Reds -100
Giants -1232
Nationals -1127
Phillies -700
Pirates -100
Blue Jays 700
Indians -1050
Diamondbacks 123
Mets 105
Mariners 125
Orioles 700
Cardinals -1169
Angels 125
Yesterday's results: -3,600
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +278
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,878
YTD Total -28,290
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,086
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,244
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,491
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 15th, 2017 at 9:33:28 AM
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Today's Picks:
Mariners 115
White Sox -102
Red Sox -230 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 102
Brewers 129
Rockies -158 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 100 Focus 7X's
Royals 119
Mariners 115
White Sox -102
Red Sox -230 DogFlips 7X's
Mets 102
Brewers 129
Rockies -158 DogFlips 7X's
Athletics 100 Focus 7X's
Royals 119
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 15th, 2017 at 9:46:50 AM
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I've never posted in this thread but I follow your picks daily (I don't bet, just love baseball so your thread intrigues me) and I was wondering at what point you might start scaling back your bets or if you don't plan to? At this rate you're on pace to lose close to $90,000. I'm not saying you can't turn it around and still have a winning season but I was just wondering if you had a stop loss? Anyways good luck with the betting and go Red Sox!!! 😊
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
June 15th, 2017 at 10:04:02 AM
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His picks have been great for +130 dog and "alt" line players. I suspect they do well on the runline too once the chalk starts hitting more consistent. The problem isn't the algo but how he applies it. There are many who are up but they use these picks other than presented.
June 15th, 2017 at 10:05:37 AM
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Hey PokerGrinder, the thought of scaling back has occurred and I even posted that thought on this thread. Fortunately, things turned a bit for the better and I put it off. The issue at this point is that the only group with a statistically significant sample size and the one in which I wouldn't scale back on is the +130dogs and they won't be back for a few weeks. Of the others, the Focus picks had intrigued me when I started them. They hadn't reached a statistically significant sample size and I really never should have increased the size on those. Screw up on my part. Those are the ones that I will most likely scale back here shortly unless they turn.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 15th, 2017 at 10:08:56 AM
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Interesting. Thanks for the response. Beating the books is so tough so I'm always rooting for anybody who tries to do it.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
June 15th, 2017 at 11:20:25 AM
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Steel,
If the +130 algo had merit (it did) play the alt line. If your Focus chalk picks become significant now that it is Summer than play the run line. You did the hard part by devising a system that can pick out patterns in dogs and favs. Now the next part (the easy part) is to monetize it. I'm not sure why you don't see that 1 run margins are uneventful in the context of your algos picks. Thus picks up the extra 50 to 100 points. Your blind followers will appreciate, other who PM me have already made the adjustment..
If the +130 algo had merit (it did) play the alt line. If your Focus chalk picks become significant now that it is Summer than play the run line. You did the hard part by devising a system that can pick out patterns in dogs and favs. Now the next part (the easy part) is to monetize it. I'm not sure why you don't see that 1 run margins are uneventful in the context of your algos picks. Thus picks up the extra 50 to 100 points. Your blind followers will appreciate, other who PM me have already made the adjustment..
Quote: steeldcoHey PokerGrinder, the thought of scaling back has occurred and I even posted that thought on this thread. Fortunately, things turned a bit for the better and I put it off. The issue at this point is that the only group with a statistically significant sample size and the one in which I wouldn't scale back on is the +130dogs and they won't be back for a few weeks. Of the others, the Focus picks had intrigued me when I started them. They hadn't reached a statistically significant sample size and I really never should have increased the size on those. Screw up on my part. Those are the ones that I will most likely scale back here shortly unless they turn.
June 15th, 2017 at 3:23:31 PM
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Quote: bazooookaSteel,
If the +130 algo had merit (it did) play the alt line. If your Focus chalk picks become significant now that it is Summer than play the run line. You did the hard part by devising a system that can pick out patterns in dogs and favs. Now the next part (the easy part) is to monetize it. I'm not sure why you don't see that 1 run margins are uneventful in the context of your algos picks. Thus picks up the extra 50 to 100 points. Your blind followers will appreciate, other who PM me have already made the adjustment..
Baz
You have mentioned this many...many times. I know Steel has heard you but he is not interested. It is his system and for now he wants to play it his way.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
June 15th, 2017 at 9:15:04 PM
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Vegas,
I don't really post to change anyone's mind, in fact I'm pretty sure he and others plays picks other than what the tracking would suggest. It's more for my own MLB betting, as well the few who use his picks in a right way and PM me.
His picks are quite useful. There should/could be many who are up more than 100 betting units. A few have taken the time to read my posts and backtested what I've said.
Heck, everyone here is trying to beat the book.
I don't really post to change anyone's mind, in fact I'm pretty sure he and others plays picks other than what the tracking would suggest. It's more for my own MLB betting, as well the few who use his picks in a right way and PM me.
His picks are quite useful. There should/could be many who are up more than 100 betting units. A few have taken the time to read my posts and backtested what I've said.
Heck, everyone here is trying to beat the book.
June 15th, 2017 at 10:09:57 PM
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Quote: vegasBaz
You have mentioned this many...many times. I know Steel has heard you but he is not interested. It is his system and for now he wants to play it his way.
vegas,
I had a similar impression of Bazooka posts, but I went back and read about the last 3 weeks or so. steel said Baz was "welcome" to continue to post his ideas based on steels lines, even though steel.himself would not be applying Baz advice at this time. It appeared to be genuine, not a polite brushoff.
So I decided not to brush Baz back. I believe it reads like haranguing, but steel is not taking it that way, so it can continue as long as the intent is to be helpful, not disparaging, of what steel is posting.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
