2017 MLB Money Line Picks
May 18th, 2017 at 6:56:09 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Tigers 115
Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
Padres -130 Focus 7X's
Royals 105
Red Sox 101
Marlins 172 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 144 +130Dogs 7X's
Tigers 115
Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
Padres -130 Focus 7X's
Royals 105
Red Sox 101
Marlins 172 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 144 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 18th, 2017 at 6:58:36 AM
permalink
Steel, you really should consider (and backtest) the -1.5 run lines. It would have paid over 2K on the Rays and really helps offset the days when you picks hit below 30%.
Also your Focus Flips (if you had been playing since we discussed few weeks back) have been on a great run. Maybe you should/could assume that the both Focus and the +130s won't both outperform at same time thus maybe flip one of them. I think its too late to flip your +130s; hopefully this huge drawdown bottoms soon.
Also your Focus Flips (if you had been playing since we discussed few weeks back) have been on a great run. Maybe you should/could assume that the both Focus and the +130s won't both outperform at same time thus maybe flip one of them. I think its too late to flip your +130s; hopefully this huge drawdown bottoms soon.
May 18th, 2017 at 7:00:42 AM
permalink
Quote: bazooookaSteel, ou really should consider the -1.5 run lines. It would have paid over 2K on the Rays and really helps offset the days when you picks hit below 30%.
Also your Focus Flips (if you had been playing since we discussed few weeks back) have been on a great run. You should assume that the Focus and the +130s won't both perform at same time so maybe flip one of them. But I think its too late to flip your +130s; hopefully drawdown bottoms soon.
bazooooka, I posted today's picks. I do end up flipping the +130s but it's too early.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 18th, 2017 at 2:05:27 PM
permalink
Great. I see the picks now.
Fyi: you can get +250 on White Sox and +300 on Marlins if you take the alternative -1.5 lines.
*When I back tested all dog upsets I found that they covered the -1.5 over 55% of the time. Since your getting an extra +70-100 on these it makes sense. You only need to hit your +130 dog picks at above 25-30%, when using the increased run lines, and this works out in the black. If you look at your entire +130 history I'd bet you hit above 30% when factoring in only -1.5 winners.
**Your dog picks could use the extra juice especially if you think you're near max drawdown territory.
Fyi: you can get +250 on White Sox and +300 on Marlins if you take the alternative -1.5 lines.
*When I back tested all dog upsets I found that they covered the -1.5 over 55% of the time. Since your getting an extra +70-100 on these it makes sense. You only need to hit your +130 dog picks at above 25-30%, when using the increased run lines, and this works out in the black. If you look at your entire +130 history I'd bet you hit above 30% when factoring in only -1.5 winners.
**Your dog picks could use the extra juice especially if you think you're near max drawdown territory.
Last edited by: bazooooka on May 18, 2017
May 19th, 2017 at 7:16:13 AM
permalink
Yesterday's F'd up results:
Tigers +115
Phillies -100
Padres -910
Royals +105
Red Sox -100
Marlins -700
White Sox -700
Yesterday's results: -2,290
+130dogs -1,500
Other dogs +120
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -910
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -18,476
+130dogs -4,191
Other dogs -817
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -10,748
FocusFlips -2,470
Tigers +115
Phillies -100
Padres -910
Royals +105
Red Sox -100
Marlins -700
White Sox -700
Yesterday's results: -2,290
+130dogs -1,500
Other dogs +120
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -910
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -18,476
+130dogs -4,191
Other dogs -817
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -10,748
FocusFlips -2,470
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2017 at 7:23:09 AM
permalink
One noteworthy item. Yesterday was the 5th. consecutive losing day for the +130dogs. Last year the longest losing streak was also 5 consecutive days, starting 05/24. In 2015? Also 5 consecutive losing days. 2014? 5 consecutive losing days.
Here's hoping that the historical trend holds................
Here's hoping that the historical trend holds................
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2017 at 7:37:15 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Brewers 145 +130Dogs 7X's
Blue Jays 106
Phillies 115
Angels 140 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays 120
Rockies 100
Indians 120 Focus 7X's
Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
Athletics 165 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 100
Brewers 145 +130Dogs 7X's
Blue Jays 106
Phillies 115
Angels 140 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays 120
Rockies 100
Indians 120 Focus 7X's
Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
Athletics 165 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2017 at 1:36:21 PM
permalink
Steel,
Your down almost 19k total and were only 45 days into this season. Do you expect to finish the year in the black. And at what point would you abort (if ever)?
Your down almost 19k total and were only 45 days into this season. Do you expect to finish the year in the black. And at what point would you abort (if ever)?
Quote: steeldcoOne noteworthy item. Yesterday was the 5th. consecutive losing day for the +130dogs. Last year the longest losing streak was also 5 consecutive days, starting 05/24. In 2015? Also 5 consecutive losing days. 2014? 5 consecutive losing days.
Here's hoping that the historical trend holds................
May 19th, 2017 at 2:27:03 PM
permalink
Quote: bazooookaSteel,
Your down almost 19k total and were only 45 days into this season. Do you expect to finish the year in the black. And at what point would you abort (if ever)?
Hang around. I'm not going anywhere.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 20th, 2017 at 6:07:26 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Brewers +1015
Blue Jays -100
Phillies +115
Angels -700
Rays +120
Rockies +100
Indians +840
Giants +924
Athletics +1155
White Sox +100
Yesterday's results: +3,569
+130dogs +2,394
Other dogs +335
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +840
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -14,907
+130dogs -1,797
Other dogs -482
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -9,908
FocusFlips -2,470
Brewers +1015
Blue Jays -100
Phillies +115
Angels -700
Rays +120
Rockies +100
Indians +840
Giants +924
Athletics +1155
White Sox +100
Yesterday's results: +3,569
+130dogs +2,394
Other dogs +335
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +840
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -14,907
+130dogs -1,797
Other dogs -482
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -9,908
FocusFlips -2,470
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 20th, 2017 at 6:18:56 AM
permalink
BTW, and I know that this will cause my friend DrawingDead to burst a blood vessel, but yesterday, with the +130dogs having reached a 5 consecutive day losing streak, it was an actionable event. Had I grown a pair, I should have doubled up.
The positive thing is that this year's annual 5 day losing streak is now behind me.
The next probable actionable event to doubling up? The next 4 day consecutive losing streak for the +130dogs. The +130dogs have only lost as many as 5 consecutive days only once each year that I have been tracking this going back to 2014. Maybe I'll grow a pair by then...............
The positive thing is that this year's annual 5 day losing streak is now behind me.
The next probable actionable event to doubling up? The next 4 day consecutive losing streak for the +130dogs. The +130dogs have only lost as many as 5 consecutive days only once each year that I have been tracking this going back to 2014. Maybe I'll grow a pair by then...............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 20th, 2017 at 6:29:07 AM
permalink
Just a note.......the dogflips are back on 06/05/17 and therefore the +130dogs will be given a rest for a time.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 20th, 2017 at 6:38:37 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Royals -103
Rays 110
Rockies 115
Nationals -190
Giants 140 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 159 FocusFlips 7X's
Padres 101
Royals -103
Rays 110
Rockies 115
Nationals -190
Giants 140 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 159 FocusFlips 7X's
Padres 101
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 20th, 2017 at 4:43:48 PM
permalink
Steel,
There is no predictive power based on past losing streaks. The only predictive power relies on the idea that you have an edge. If indeed you can hit the +130 above 40% then it will come back over a long sample.
However there may be no edge there. Losing streaks of high magnitude and big drawdowns are more consistent with random picks. +130 flips also seems to have been a good call 2 weeks back (and Focus flips from the start).
It's likely Vegas is already adjusted to true team talent levels. Edges don't last long. And in my experience they are easier to find early rather than late season.
There is no predictive power based on past losing streaks. The only predictive power relies on the idea that you have an edge. If indeed you can hit the +130 above 40% then it will come back over a long sample.
However there may be no edge there. Losing streaks of high magnitude and big drawdowns are more consistent with random picks. +130 flips also seems to have been a good call 2 weeks back (and Focus flips from the start).
It's likely Vegas is already adjusted to true team talent levels. Edges don't last long. And in my experience they are easier to find early rather than late season.
Last edited by: bazooooka on May 20, 2017
May 21st, 2017 at 5:00:59 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Royals 0
Rays +110
Rockies -100
Nationals -190
Giants +980
White Sox +1113
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: +1,813
+130dogs +980
Other dogs -90
Favorites -190
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips +1,113
YTD Total -13,094
+130dogs -817
Other dogs -572
Favorites -440
Focus Picks -9,908
FocusFlips -1,357
Royals 0
Rays +110
Rockies -100
Nationals -190
Giants +980
White Sox +1113
Padres -100
Yesterday's results: +1,813
+130dogs +980
Other dogs -90
Favorites -190
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips +1,113
YTD Total -13,094
+130dogs -817
Other dogs -572
Favorites -440
Focus Picks -9,908
FocusFlips -1,357
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 21st, 2017 at 9:44:06 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Yankees 128
Rockies 103
Mets -105 Focus 7X's
Braves 165 +130Dogs 7X's
Pirates 107
Blue Jays 105
Royals 110
Athletics 109
Marlins 180 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 122
Padres 108 Focus 7X's
Royals 110
Yankees 128
Rockies 103
Mets -105 Focus 7X's
Braves 165 +130Dogs 7X's
Pirates 107
Blue Jays 105
Royals 110
Athletics 109
Marlins 180 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 122
Padres 108 Focus 7X's
Royals 110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 22nd, 2017 at 8:38:29 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Yankees +128
Rockies +103
Mets -735
Braves -700
Pirates +107
Blue Jays +105
Royals +110
Athletics -100
Marlins -700
White Sox +122
Padres +756
Royals -100
Yesterday's results: -904
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs +475
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +21
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -13,998
+130dogs -2,217
Other dogs -97
Favorites -440
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -1,357
Yankees +128
Rockies +103
Mets -735
Braves -700
Pirates +107
Blue Jays +105
Royals +110
Athletics -100
Marlins -700
White Sox +122
Padres +756
Royals -100
Yesterday's results: -904
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs +475
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +21
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -13,998
+130dogs -2,217
Other dogs -97
Favorites -440
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -1,357
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 22nd, 2017 at 9:05:02 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Royals 162 Focus 7X's
Twins 123
Reds 114
Angels 103
Cubs -200
Astros -131 Focus 7X's
White Sox 179 +130Dogs 1X's
Royals 162 Focus 7X's
Twins 123
Reds 114
Angels 103
Cubs -200
Astros -131 Focus 7X's
White Sox 179 +130Dogs 1X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2017 at 10:26:10 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Royals -700
Twins +123
Reds +114
Angels +103
Cubs -200
Astros +700
White Sox -100
Yesterday's results: +40
+130dogs -100
Other dogs +340
Favorites -200
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -13,958
+130dogs -2,317
Other dogs +243
Favorites -640
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -1,357
Royals -700
Twins +123
Reds +114
Angels +103
Cubs -200
Astros +700
White Sox -100
Yesterday's results: +40
+130dogs -100
Other dogs +340
Favorites -200
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -13,958
+130dogs -2,317
Other dogs +243
Favorites -640
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -1,357
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2017 at 10:38:38 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Giants 157 +130Dogs 7X's
Phillies 125
Twins 130 +130Dogs 7X's
Rangers 181 +130Dogs 7X's
Pirates -103
Blue Jays -101
White Sox 175 FocusFlips 7X's
Giants 157 +130Dogs 7X's
Phillies 125
Twins 130 +130Dogs 7X's
Rangers 181 +130Dogs 7X's
Pirates -103
Blue Jays -101
White Sox 175 FocusFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2017 at 1:24:50 PM
permalink
I think the tide is turning in our favor, Steel. I'm sticking with you till the end!
!
May 23rd, 2017 at 1:47:01 PM
permalink
Steel you can get near 100% more return on many of these by playing the "alternative" run lines. Have you back tested all your +130 dog winners to see what your returns would be. Since your average dog is around +145 then assume an average of around +230 on the "alt" lines.
If so, you will see that you're leaving big money on the table. Giants paid +300 last night and will do similar tonight. You only have to be right 25% of the time for these to pencil. Any algo that can sniff out the good dogs will be in the money. Upsets are often by more than 1 run. Your own data will confirm.
If so, you will see that you're leaving big money on the table. Giants paid +300 last night and will do similar tonight. You only have to be right 25% of the time for these to pencil. Any algo that can sniff out the good dogs will be in the money. Upsets are often by more than 1 run. Your own data will confirm.
May 23rd, 2017 at 2:00:53 PM
permalink
Quote: ShootressI think the tide is turning in our favor, Steel. I'm sticking with you till the end!
Thanks so much for your good thoughts!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2017 at 2:01:12 PM
permalink
Quote: bazooookaSteel you can get near 100% more return on many of these by playing the "alternative" run lines. Have you back tested all your +130 dog winners to see what your returns would be. Since your average dog is around +145 then assume an average of around +230 on the "alt" lines.
If so, you will see that you're leaving big money on the table. Giants paid +300 last night and will do similar tonight. You only have to be right 25% of the time for these to pencil. Any algo that can sniff out the good dogs will be in the money. Upsets are often by more than 1 run. Your own data will confirm.
It's being considered.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2017 at 6:56:42 PM
permalink
Twins paid near triple on the alt line. You can lose the other two +130 dogs and be up on those if using the alt. I have Sox on the "alt" also for near +340.
May 24th, 2017 at 4:56:29 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Giants -700
Phillies -100
Twins +910
Rangers -700
Pirates -103
Blue Jays +100
White Sox -700
Yesterday's results: -1,293
+130dogs -490
Other dogs -100
Favorites -3
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips -700
YTD Total -15,251
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs +143
Favorites -643
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -2,057
Giants -700
Phillies -100
Twins +910
Rangers -700
Pirates -103
Blue Jays +100
White Sox -700
Yesterday's results: -1,293
+130dogs -490
Other dogs -100
Favorites -3
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips -700
YTD Total -15,251
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs +143
Favorites -643
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -2,057
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2017 at 5:10:31 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Marlins 121
Nationals -150
Phillies 100
Mets -150
Pirates 125
Marlins 121
Nationals -150
Phillies 100
Mets -150
Pirates 125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2017 at 7:25:16 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Marlins -100
Nationals +100
Phillies -100
Mets -150
Pirates +125
Yesterday's results: -125
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -75
Favorites -50
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -15,376
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs +68
Favorites -693
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -2,057
Marlins -100
Nationals +100
Phillies -100
Mets -150
Pirates +125
Yesterday's results: -125
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -75
Favorites -50
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -15,376
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs +68
Favorites -693
Focus Picks -9,887
FocusFlips -2,057
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2017 at 8:14:13 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Braves 100
Rockies -109 Focus 7X's
Red Sox -205
Mets -210
Brewers -105 Focus 7X's
Braves 100
Rockies -109 Focus 7X's
Red Sox -205
Mets -210
Brewers -105 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2017 at 2:04:30 PM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Braves 100
Rockies -109 Focus 7X's
Red Sox -205
Mets -210
Brewers -105 Focus 7X's
Matched you on Braves unfortunately, I went with Phillies, match you on Brewers! Mets game has pitching change so I assume you used listed pitches so should be no action there.
Good luck tonight lets bring the Brew Crew home!
What is life if not a gamble?
May 25th, 2017 at 2:23:52 PM
permalink
Hey RD! Really great to see you back. Congrats on Phils. Let's go Brewers!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 26th, 2017 at 5:46:40 AM
permalink
This is discouraging, I now wonder whether the Focus Picks algorithm is just crap. I may put an end to them....and remove that misery.
Yesterday's Results:
Braves -100
Rockies -763
Red Sox +100
Mets -210
Brewers -735
Yesterday's results: -1,708
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -100
Favorites -110
Focus Picks -1,498
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -17,084
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs -32
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -11,385
FocusFlips -2,057
Yesterday's Results:
Braves -100
Rockies -763
Red Sox +100
Mets -210
Brewers -735
Yesterday's results: -1,708
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -100
Favorites -110
Focus Picks -1,498
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -17,084
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs -32
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -11,385
FocusFlips -2,057
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 26th, 2017 at 7:41:44 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
White Sox -102
Mets 103 Focus 7X's
Rangers 130 +130Dogs 1X's
Mariners 156 +130Dogs 7X's
Twins 120
Orioles 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Brewers -107 Focus 7X's
Tigers -108 Focus 7X's
White Sox -102
Mets 103 Focus 7X's
Rangers 130 +130Dogs 1X's
Mariners 156 +130Dogs 7X's
Twins 120
Orioles 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Brewers -107 Focus 7X's
Tigers -108 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 26th, 2017 at 5:39:53 PM
permalink
"Focus Flips" and +130 dogs on the alt run lines have done great. Your problem is bet bouncing and not consistently flipping the focus picks from the jump. However Vegas gets sharper as the season progresses so I'd think it all gets harder from here.
May 26th, 2017 at 8:36:33 PM
permalink
?!?Quote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
White Sox -102
...<SNIP>...
Tigers -108 Focus 7X's
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 26th, 2017 at 10:11:04 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDead?!?
It was originally a doubleheader scheduled , his picks were the whitesox in game 1 (which was rained out), and tigers in game 2 which is the one being played at this moment
May 26th, 2017 at 10:36:36 PM
permalink
Did he say that somewhere? I'm not finding it. A line of -108 vs -102 is perfectly consistent with both sides of the line for the late game, but does not fit at all with the earlier lines that were available for the rescheduled game. And he has previously stated that his algorithm will never pick part of a doubleheader.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 26th, 2017 at 11:15:03 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadDid he say that somewhere? I'm not finding it. A line of -108 vs -102 is perfectly consistent with both sides of the line for the late game, but does not fit at all with the earlier lines that were available for the rescheduled game. And he has previously stated that his algorithm will never pick part of a doubleheader.
I talked it over with two of my buddies (all 3 of us bet these steel plays ) and we all agreed it hadda be game 1 and game 2. He's never before bet both sides of the same game as far as we know. All he would've been doing in that case is guaranteeing himself either an $80 or $20 loss.
May 27th, 2017 at 2:03:33 AM
permalink
Oh my. So that must be it, huh? When there were two events on the board, were the lines identical? Or very close to it? Quoted at -102/-108 for both, or something like that when/where your buddies got to it? Because they weren't the same for each of two events at any time anywhere in the line history from any source, either brick & mortar books or online/offshore. And they'd have to have been identical lines for both sides in both games in order for that to have been the intent, since -102 for one means it was -108 for the other side, and vice versa.
BTW, that would not be the result of simultaneous wagers on both sides of the actual game. Because one side (DET) was one of his martingale bets at 7 times the unit-betting amount. The CWS bet was listed as the normal 1x unit amount. But regardless of that, yes, betting both sides simultaneously would obviously be a really stupid thing to ever do intentionally (absent a sudden huge line movement creating a 'middling' opportunity - which did not occur).
And I doubt he ever intended to do it, or that he actually did do it; I'd suspect a more mundane sort of error, either in his system output or in the process of posting it, before I'd imagine he did that. Because it would be silly, and I'm sure he knows that. But then, so would anyone out there ever blindly betting on ANY sort of "yee-haw looky here wees gotz us sum free pix on dis here smart folkz gamblin' site baby from wat a winnah dude (lately kinda sorta) sez from da sciency interwebz." That would be really foolish. Especially, say, if someone was such an impulsive gambler that they did that with real money in an amount that mattered to them without even bothering to look at the readily available five year history. More so even than deciding to pay vig to bet both sides of the same event.
But now I've been sounding insufficiently cheery, in the "dunno nuttin' bout wad it iz in dis algo-thingy but letz jus go rah-rah baby an' surely it'll cum true" place. And in the past that kind of intrusion has made the believers angrily work themselves into a little believe harder and burn the witch frenzy. I'll quit the diversion and go back to my witches lair, as this isn't the biggest deal of the century or the week or even probably of Friday, and I'm sure Mr. S will clear up that little anomaly between the listed DET/CWS wagers in short order after it has been brought to his attention.
BTW, that would not be the result of simultaneous wagers on both sides of the actual game. Because one side (DET) was one of his martingale bets at 7 times the unit-betting amount. The CWS bet was listed as the normal 1x unit amount. But regardless of that, yes, betting both sides simultaneously would obviously be a really stupid thing to ever do intentionally (absent a sudden huge line movement creating a 'middling' opportunity - which did not occur).
And I doubt he ever intended to do it, or that he actually did do it; I'd suspect a more mundane sort of error, either in his system output or in the process of posting it, before I'd imagine he did that. Because it would be silly, and I'm sure he knows that. But then, so would anyone out there ever blindly betting on ANY sort of "yee-haw looky here wees gotz us sum free pix on dis here smart folkz gamblin' site baby from wat a winnah dude (lately kinda sorta) sez from da sciency interwebz." That would be really foolish. Especially, say, if someone was such an impulsive gambler that they did that with real money in an amount that mattered to them without even bothering to look at the readily available five year history. More so even than deciding to pay vig to bet both sides of the same event.
But now I've been sounding insufficiently cheery, in the "dunno nuttin' bout wad it iz in dis algo-thingy but letz jus go rah-rah baby an' surely it'll cum true" place. And in the past that kind of intrusion has made the believers angrily work themselves into a little believe harder and burn the witch frenzy. I'll quit the diversion and go back to my witches lair, as this isn't the biggest deal of the century or the week or even probably of Friday, and I'm sure Mr. S will clear up that little anomaly between the listed DET/CWS wagers in short order after it has been brought to his attention.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 27, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 27th, 2017 at 6:05:37 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
White Sox 0
Mets +721
Rangers -100
Mariners -700
Twins -100
Orioles -700
Brewers -749
Tigers 0
Yesterday's results: -1,628
+130dogs -1,500
Other dogs -100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -28
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -18,712
+130dogs -4,307
Other dogs -132
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -11,413
FocusFlips -2,057
White Sox 0
Mets +721
Rangers -100
Mariners -700
Twins -100
Orioles -700
Brewers -749
Tigers 0
Yesterday's results: -1,628
+130dogs -1,500
Other dogs -100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -28
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -18,712
+130dogs -4,307
Other dogs -132
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -11,413
FocusFlips -2,057
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2017 at 6:12:54 AM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadDid he say that somewhere? I'm not finding it. A line of -108 vs -102 is perfectly consistent with both sides of the line for the late game, but does not fit at all with the earlier lines that were available for the rescheduled game. And he has previously stated that his algorithm will never pick part of a doubleheader.
Correct that the algorithm should never pick the back end of a double header. Without a lot of spinning, this is nothing more than stupidity exhibiting itself. I now have to go through and find why it occurred. Tracking down this crap is tiresome. In addition, another piece of stupidity on my part was taking the Orioles at 7x's. They should have been 1X and I didn't realize that until this morning, after my stupidity has cost me once again. They should have been 1X since they have been the worst performing +130dog so far this year.
I have made a nice life with the ability to recognize, realize and then solve the problems that are presented. My intent is to get my act together on the MLB wagering because losing wrapped in stupidity is just too tough to take.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2017 at 6:17:52 AM
permalink
bazooooka, I believe that you may be on to something with using the run lines on the +130dogs. Unfortunately, my records won't allow me to easily do any back testing. I have data files grouped by day and only cumulative data on certain items. One of which is NOT the final score since I have never cared whether a team won or lost by 1, or if they won or lost by 9.
I'm going to, starting with today, start listing those as (in your honor) bazooookas' picks and we'll see how they do on a test basis.
I'm going to, starting with today, start listing those as (in your honor) bazooookas' picks and we'll see how they do on a test basis.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2017 at 8:35:46 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Rangers -105 Focus 7X's
White Sox 125
Rays -108 Focus 7X's
Mariners 147 Focus 7X's
Marlins 115
Brewers 120
Royals 165 +130Dogs 7X's (edited)
Mets 125
Orioles 180 +130Dogs 1X's
Cardinals 100 Focus 7X's
Bazooooka's Run Line Picks:
Royals -1.5R+260
Bazooooka, I have never (that I can recall) played the run line in MLB. When I looked to get run lines at -1.5, I could not find one on every game. For example, the Orioles. I see no run line at -1.5 for them. Am I missing something? Is stupidity rearing its ugly head again for me?
Rangers -105 Focus 7X's
White Sox 125
Rays -108 Focus 7X's
Mariners 147 Focus 7X's
Marlins 115
Brewers 120
Royals 165 +130Dogs 7X's (edited)
Mets 125
Orioles 180 +130Dogs 1X's
Cardinals 100 Focus 7X's
Bazooooka's Run Line Picks:
Royals -1.5R+260
Bazooooka, I have never (that I can recall) played the run line in MLB. When I looked to get run lines at -1.5, I could not find one on every game. For example, the Orioles. I see no run line at -1.5 for them. Am I missing something? Is stupidity rearing its ugly head again for me?
Last edited by: steeldco on May 27, 2017
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2017 at 9:14:16 AM
permalink
Are the Royals 7x +130 dogs, or regular 1x +130 dogs?
William Hill at least has the opposite run line marked "reverse point line".
William Hill at least has the opposite run line marked "reverse point line".
May 27th, 2017 at 9:27:32 AM
permalink
Quote: RSAre the Royals 7x +130 dogs, or regular 1x +130 dogs?
William Hill at least has the opposite run line marked "reverse point line".
Wow.....my screw-ups just won't let up. Thanks RS! They are 7X's. I will also edit the original post.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 28th, 2017 at 7:53:54 AM
permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Rangers -735
White Sox 125
Rays -756
Mariners -700
Marlins -100
Brewers 120
Royals 1155
Mets -100
Orioles -100
Cardinals 700
Yesterday's results: -391
+130dogs +1,055
Other dogs +45
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,491
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -19,103
+130dogs -3,252
Other dogs -87
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -12,904
FocusFlips -2,057
Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +260
Rangers -735
White Sox 125
Rays -756
Mariners -700
Marlins -100
Brewers 120
Royals 1155
Mets -100
Orioles -100
Cardinals 700
Yesterday's results: -391
+130dogs +1,055
Other dogs +45
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,491
FocusFlips 0
YTD Total -19,103
+130dogs -3,252
Other dogs -87
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -12,904
FocusFlips -2,057
Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +260
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 28th, 2017 at 8:32:08 AM
permalink
Today's Picks:
Marlins -101
Royals 121
Padres 161 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays -105 Focus 7X's
Orioles 185 +130Dogs 1X's
Cardinals 119 Focus 7X's
Braves 174 FocusFlips 7X's
Mets 101 Focus 7X's
Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks:
Padres -1.5R+385
Orioles -1.5R+440
Braves -1.5R+400
Marlins -101
Royals 121
Padres 161 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays -105 Focus 7X's
Orioles 185 +130Dogs 1X's
Cardinals 119 Focus 7X's
Braves 174 FocusFlips 7X's
Mets 101 Focus 7X's
Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks:
Padres -1.5R+385
Orioles -1.5R+440
Braves -1.5R+400
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 28th, 2017 at 10:42:25 AM
permalink
The padres are +130 +385, can you buy the .5 run to make it -1? If you can I assume it will make it +250 or so, would that be better than the -1.5, would reduce variance I would think.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
May 28th, 2017 at 11:05:53 AM
permalink
Hey GWAE, thanks. I'm really in test mode on this, but will keep the thought. I am just testing based upon Bazooooka's recommendation.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 28th, 2017 at 11:52:17 AM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoHey GWAE, thanks. I'm really in test mode on this, but will keep the thought. I am just testing based upon Bazooooka's recommendation.
Yeah I get that. It was more of a question than a suggestion.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
