2017 MLB Money Line Picks

Quote: steeldco

Why in the hell is Jared Weaver still pitching in the major leagues? Un-F-ing believable.............

I assume almost anyone taking the mound for the Padres now is basically filler, a placeholder 'till the boys on the farm grow up into the big show, no?

[P.S. It is actually "Jered" without an "a." Not that there's really much reason for anyone but his mom to care. And maybe "Jared" with an "a" the creepy former Subway guy, who could only wish he was a washed up pitcher paid $18 million for trying to eat innings for a year in last place.]

Steel, That's a lot of 7x... Was the focus flip 7x also or did you scale that back to 1x?

7x too rich for my blood since it overwhelm one's results to the point that normal bets wont even move the needle. Do you really place all these 7x bets at the units mentioned (or is some of this paper trading/tracking? =)

Anyhow, I put some coins on the Pirates (in progress) after I saw KC comeback since the parlays we don't play seem to usually hit

*and it will get you to 3:3 for today's 7x bet instead of 2:4 (near $2000 dollar swing in the +- GO Pirates!!

Quote: DrawingDead

I assume almost anyone taking the mound for the Padres now is basically filler, a placeholder 'till the boys on the farm grow up into the big show, no?

[P.S. It is actually "Jered" without an "a." Not that there's really much reason for anyone but his mom to care. And maybe "Jared" with an "a" the creepy former Subway guy, who could only wish he was a washed up pitcher paid $18 million for trying to eat innings for a year in last place.]

Trevor Cahill has been awesome so far. I guess he learned a new pitch or something.

Quote: steeldco

LOL.....check back tomorrow ye of little faith.....

If you were anyone else, that would have been the nicest comment you would have received by many.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Quote: DrawingDead

I assume almost anyone taking the mound for the Padres now is basically filler, a placeholder 'till the boys on the farm grow up into the big show, no?

[P.S. It is actually "Jered" without an "a." Not that there's really much reason for anyone but his mom to care. And maybe "Jared" with an "a" the creepy former Subway guy, who could only wish he was a washed up pitcher paid $18 million for trying to eat innings for a year in last place.]

Trevor Cahill has been awesome so far. I guess he learned a new pitch or something.

Yeah, for under $2 mil, I guess they're definitely feeling awesome about what he's doing for them. Generally, methinks that home ballpark *should* be a help to any pitcher.

I'll shut up now to allow Steel space to throw things at Dodger Stadium through his TV, going to the 10th inning.

There goes the TV =(

Quote: DrawingDead

I'll shut up now to allow Steel space to throw things at Dodger Stadium through his TV, going to the 10th inning.

Sad..... I screwed up on the Orioles who should have been 7X's. And yes, I am becoming Best Buy's best customer.

Yesterday's Results:
 Padres -700
 Orioles +141
 Blue Jays -700
 Giants -700
 Royals +980
 Reds +100
 Brewers +910
 Astros +100
 Rockies -100
 Angels +125
 Pirates -700

Yesterday's results: -544
+130dogs -210
Other dogs +25
Favorites +200
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips +141

YTD Total -9,937
+130dogs +2,692
Other dogs -727
Favorites -462
Focus Picks -10,181
FocusFlips -1,259

Maybe it's just a lingering thing from yesterday's screwed up results from my mistake on the Orioles and the Pirates give away of a game, but these all suck.............I'm going to be driven to drink....

Today's Picks:
 Mariners -105
 Mets -135
 Cubs -132 Focus 7X's
 Angels 118 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 170 +130Dogs 7X's
 Blue Jays 145 Focus 7X's
 Royals 180 +130Dogs 7X's
 Brewers -120 Focus 7X's
 Twins 115
 Tigers 115

Lot's of Focus picks today. Hopefully these revert to the mean. I'd consider fading all of them though since the algo seems to be picking on overrated teams/games. Or do you expect these to pick up later in the season as the algo burns in. The low hanging fruit is normally gone by June. Even the +130 dogs get harder to find or exploit unless your talking about 4th/5th and fill-in arms.

I was driving. So I ask Siri if the orioles won.
She's like "the orioles nearly lost against the nationals". I'm like okay, nearly losing isn't losing so they won?
Then I grow suspicious and ask if the nationals won, and she says "the nationals nearly won today". I'm like well nearly winning isn't winning, cool.
Then I ask who won the game between nationals and orioles, and she's like "the final score was 7-6".
BITCH YOU AINT EVEN HELPFUL.

More TVs will break when you look up what happened to Baltimore closers in the 9th. Hey, at least Jays had a good 9th plus KC and Brew crew looking good. Always a high wire act.

Yesterday's Results:
 Mariners +100
 Mets -135
 Cubs -924
 Angels -700
 Orioles -700
 Blue Jays +1015
 Royals -700
 Brewers +700
 Twins 0
 Tigers -100

Yesterday's results: -1,444
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs -100
Favorites -35
Focus Picks +91
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -11,381
+130dogs +1,292
Other dogs -827
Favorites -497
Focus Picks -10,090
FocusFlips -1,259

Today's Picks:
 Brewers 120 Focus 7X's
 Royals 105
 Astros 112 Focus 7X's
 Mariners 125
 Twins 120
 Pirates 120
 Reds 125

Slight dogs are usually a bit worse than coin flips. Hard to overcome the 55%-59% home field advantage. I actually like some of the favs for value today. Greinke fo Dbacks at home is not someone I'd fade unless I was getting closer to +150. Most of these seem similar to your Focus picks. Hard to tell what your algo sees in these ones. Best bets normally have good payouts +130 thru +170 or flipping some of the heavier chalk.

When its just -120 to +120 on the board I normally scale back or sit or I look for true aces with homefield. Dbacks on the runline seems to have some value. today. As season goes on you get lots of teams around 50%-55% win percentages and lots of +-120 games.

Yesterday's Results:
 Brewers -700
 Royals +105
 Astros +784
 Mariners -100
 Twins +120
 Pirates -100
 Reds +125

Yesterday's results: +234
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +150
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +84
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -11,147
+130dogs +1,292
Other dogs -677
Favorites -497
Focus Picks -10,006
FocusFlips -1,259

Today's Picks:
 Nationals -175
 Mariners 117
 Braves 120 Focus 7X's
 Rays 156 +130Dogs 1X's
 Twins 128
 Athletics 115
 Cubs 121 Focus 7X's

Quote: steeldco

 Cubs 121 Focus 7X's

I can hand you some extra incentive to cheer for this one, as I've got the other side. Though I'm not usually on favorites, I particularly like Mike Leake pitching to weak contact for ground balls at night with the temperature expected to be down to near the dew point at Busch. STL was -126 on the moneyline for me from William Hill in the overnight lines. Good luck to... someone.

DD;

Yup on these near coin flip type games it all about line value. -126 is a solid line. It has since moved to near -150 though so I'll take the Cubbies at a rare +130 dog line. The +- 100-120 lines are the ones where vig will skim ya.

So like I said, if someone just breaks Contreras' arm on the way to the ballpark, the Cardinals should be fine.

You could have had a risk free $45 middle on your early line if you'd put the same money down on the Cubs just before first pitch. You would have either lost the 126 on the Cards or won around $170 bucks (on that 126 at risk) if you got he Cubbies around +130. Hard to find these moving middles nowadays but that was a decent one. The good lines that I see Steel get sets up lots of middles. A grind yes; but a guaranteed few bucks and sometimes those 7xs don't look so hot after one looks at the matchup.

Yesterday's Results:
 Nationals 0
 Mariners -100
 Braves +840
 Rays +156
 Twins +128
 Athletics -100
 Cubs +847

Yesterday's results: +1,771
+130dogs +156
Other dogs -72
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,687
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -9,376
+130dogs +1,448
Other dogs -749
Favorites -497
Focus Picks -8,319
FocusFlips -1,259

Quote: DrawingDead

I can hand you some extra incentive to cheer for this one, as I've got the other side. Though I'm not usually on favorites, I particularly like Mike Leake pitching to weak contact for ground balls at night with the temperature expected to be down to near the dew point at Busch. STL was -126 on the moneyline for me from William Hill in the overnight lines. Good luck to... someone.

DrawingDead, just a suggestion. Keep in mind it is worth exactly what you have paid for it.
You may want to take a look at whether a team that you're going to lay money with is going up against a pitcher with decent stuff for the first time. I have never seen him pitch, however Eddie Butler is a former 1st. round draft pick and I would therefore have to assume that he has decent stuff (not that he's going to ever win the Cy Young). Couple a pitcher going against a team that really never has seen him before (he threw 1 inning against them a couple of years ago) and you have a good chance for the dog winning.

I shouldn't bet St. Louis games generally, not for anything other than a tiny sprinkling of green spice atop a sporting interest, because I have particular attachments going back decades to that one MLB franchise that inevitably colors any coldly calculating financial/probability analysis for me. But congrats and no sweat for me, since this is a weekend, so a little time panhandling Californians at a LV Strip freeway exit and I should be good as new.

Quote: steeldco

You may want to take a look at whether a team that you're going to lay money with is going up against a pitcher with decent stuff for the first time.

I'd agree with that.

Quote: steeldco

a former 1st. round draft pick and I would therefore have to assume

But not that at all. In baseball "1st round draft pick" does NOT mean something similar to the NFL or NBA draft order, especially among pitching prospects, and the timing and development involved is entirely different. Among first round picks (the first 30 selected in the "rule 4 draft" of US amateurs (mostly) from high school and (some) from college) only 40% have successful major league careers (as defined by analysts using metrics such as ever achieving a WAR of at least 1.5) and the rate is lower than that among pitching prospects. When they are successful, it usually takes a lot of development work. A lot as in years, plural.

Too long below, don't read further --

An anecdote which "proves" absolutely nothing whatsoever, just a little story that comes to mind: Last year you bet on STL in a home game against LAD. I recall this example in particular because it happens that I was at that game, along with some others before it that week that were highly relevant to what happened that evening. STL started a pitcher making his MLB debut on an emergency call up from their top level farm team AAA Memphis Redbirds under circumstances very similar to what CHC had yesterday: a severely depleted pitching staff due to some extraordinary heavy use required in several unusual games earlier that week. He was a former high draft pick, and while he wasn't ready enough to be on the major league roster out of spring training, and you usually don't want to have even the best and most ready pitching prospects make their debut as a starter, they no doubt hoped he could give them about four or maybe five, and they could try to ham & egg it for the rest.

It was not pretty. He lasted one and a third innings, giving up 6 runs in the 1st, then 3 runs in the 2nd, a rate of 3 runs per out, before being pulled and replaced by an already drastically overworked long-reliever sent out for kamikaze duty in a game that was now already a hopeless throwaway on that Sunday evening. His ERA of about 3-ish at the highest level of the minors translated to an ERA of about 80+ in his unfortunately short debut. He may be a fine major league pitcher some day, under different circumstances, when he's fully ready and has some experience learning a lot of the very different things it takes at that level. Or maybe not.

I think MLB debuts are usually a lot of fun to watch. At the ballpark it is easy to pick out the comped section of his whole extended family and friends and most of his childhood neighbors and every coach he ever had from little league on bursting with nervous pride, all going nuts, with some inevitably crying when he's announced. Not so much that time, after first pitch. But, the group of guys from LA near me that night, also not real far from his posse, were extremely classy as they watched the carnage inflicted by their Dodger Blue.

This set of picks pretty much sucks. No dogs. No focus. No nothing. Too many favorites.

Today's Picks:
 Red Sox -215
 Blue Jays -171
 Reds 122
 Nationals -190
 White Sox 128
 Braves 113
 Rockies 100
 Diamondbacks -150
 Tigers 123

Yesterday's picks worked out OK despite all of my whining............

 Red Sox +100
 Blue Jays +100
 Reds -100
 Nationals +100
 White Sox +128
 Braves +113
 Rockies -100
 Diamondbacks -150
 Tigers +123

Yesterday's results: +314
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +164
Favorites +150
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -9,062
+130dogs +1,448
Other dogs -585
Favorites -347
Focus Picks -8,319
FocusFlips -1,259

Today's Picks:
 Mariners 132 +130Dogs 7X's
 Astros 137 +130Dogs 7X's
 Brewers 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Royals 115
 Cardinals 111
 Athletics 117
 Dodgers -128 Focus 7X's
 Tigers -115 Focus 7X's

Steel have your +130 dogs ever drawdown this much from high water mark before and then bounced back? Your algo seems to finds value early in the season as Vegas adjust to true team talent. But by June Vegas caps the talent fairly well so maybe Focus picks might outperform. Beating the vig on Focus picks will be very tough though since you'd have to hit near 55-60% which is tough to near impossible. I do hope you continue to seek out dogs in favorable situations. But at some point a dog is a dog for a reason. I'll keep an eye on your chalk picks. I like the ones when there is an ace otherwise most MLB pitchers are coin flips.

Yesterday's Results:
 Mariners -700
 Astros -700
 Brewers +945
 Royals +115
 Cardinals +111
 Athletics -100
 Dodgers -896
 Tigers -805

Yesterday's results: -2,030
+130dogs -455
Other dogs +126
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,701
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -11,092
+130dogs +993
Other dogs -459
Favorites -347
Focus Picks -10,020
FocusFlips -1,259

Quote: bazooooka

Steel have your +130 dogs ever drawdown this much from high water mark before and then bounced back?

The +130dogs last year went from being +12,222 on 04/21/16 to -3,556 on 05/13/16. It recovered to its high point of +15,001 on 08/16/16.

Updated list of "blacklisted" teams.
 Orioles
 Twins
 Phillies

Today's Picks:
 Rays 141 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 100
 Mets 105
 Brewers 110
 Giants 126 Focus 7X's

Wow that's a huge swing in a month. Also an amazing start last season too. For sure there is something there before the capper adjust. Too build it back up again through the Summer is interesting. I hope you dig in and see what trends it was really grabbing. I hope this drawdown doesn't have a 16k range.

Quote: steeldco

The +130dogs last year went from being +12,222 on 04/21/16 to -3,556 on 05/13/16. It recovered to its high point of +15,001 on 08/16/16.

Quote: bazooooka

Wow that's a huge swing in a month.

i agree. even dropping the 7x for all.
by day and cumulative (in units)
130+


Sally

Yesterday's Results:
 Rays -700
 Marlins -100
 Mets -100
 Brewers -100
 Giants +882

Yesterday's results: -118
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -300
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +882
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -11,210
+130dogs +293
Other dogs -759
Favorites -347
Focus Picks -9,138
FocusFlips -1,259

Today's Picks:
 Braves 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Indians -173 FocusFlips 7X's
 Pirates 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles 111
 Marlins 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 175 +130Dogs 1X's
 Reds 175 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 105
 Royals 103
 Cardinals -103
 Diamondbacks -182
 Brewers 106

Sally,

What dates are these? And are these all bets or just +130?

I don't see how/when it ever got to 60 units above expectation? I'm assuming 1 unit is $100 bet. Thus 60 units above expectation would be 60 wins above the 53% predicted level (assuming all the bets/odds average out to around -110).

I think once you set all to $100 bet size the high water mark never got much over 10 units give or take.

Quote: bazooooka

Sally,

What dates are these? And are these all bets or just +130?

all are 130+
a unit is whatever you want
$100
$10
works well

It includes the 1x and 7x for the 130+
So far my data matches what has been posted

130+	total in units	date	# day
-7	-7	4/4/2017	1
0	-7	4/5/2017	2
20.02	13.02	4/6/2017	3
14.07	27.09	4/7/2017	4
24.43	51.52	4/8/2017	5
3.64	55.16	4/9/2017	6
-16.8	38.36	4/10/2017	7
-7	31.36	4/11/2017	8
25.2	56.56	4/12/2017	9
-14	42.56	4/13/2017	10
4.69	47.25	4/14/2017	11
-35	12.25	4/15/2017	12
37.31	49.56	4/16/2017	13
-4.55	45.01	4/17/2017	14
15.4	60.41	4/18/2017	15
-0.68	59.73	4/19/2017	16
-1	58.73	4/20/2017	17
0	58.73	4/21/2017	18
-1	57.73	4/22/2017	19
-7	50.73	4/23/2017	20
0	50.73	4/24/2017	21
-7	43.73	4/25/2017	22
-7	36.73	4/26/2017	23
-7.35	29.38	4/27/2017	24
3.92	33.3	4/28/2017	25
15.54	48.84	4/29/2017	26
-3.15	45.69	4/30/2017	27
4.98	50.67	5/1/2017	28
0.17	50.84	5/2/2017	29
-3.36	47.48	5/3/2017	30
10.54	58.02	5/4/2017	31
-8	50.02	5/5/2017	32
-14	36.02	5/6/2017	33
-7	29.02	5/7/2017	34
0	29.02	5/8/2017	35
-2.1	26.92	5/9/2017	36
-14	12.92	5/10/2017	37
0	12.92	5/11/2017	38
1.56	14.48	5/12/2017	39
0	14.48	5/13/2017	40
-4.55	9.93	5/14/2017	41
-7	2.93	5/15/2017	42

Sally

now waiting for the big run up!

I see. It's maybe best to adjust the 7x down to 1x though - then it looks like the +130s which seem to average +145; do indeed hit around 40%. But have gotten as high as 50% over a small sample size. If they start hitting at near 50% over the next 100 picks there can be a nice run up; otherwise it may just churn between 35% to 45% hit rates and vig will slowly squeeze it as the average bet converges toward 130 since most dogs are just 500 type teams playing on the road.

Steel,

Have you considered playing the -1.5 run lines on you dogs. Often your +130-180 dogs dogs will pay 190 to 270+ if/when you bet them at -1.5 to win.

Sure maybe 20% of winners will turn into losers; But the others will have increased payouts of up to 50% on the odds. Your Atl. pick today would have hit at +200 so 1400 bucks (at 7x) which can offset the 2 losers.

If you can average +200 odds you only need to hit 1 in 3 which you have easily done on the dogs long term - after factoring in -1.5 runline.

fyi: I went through your old results and this would have left you up nicely. When your algo runs hot it typically wins by over a run.
You should look into it; also you can decrease bets to 4x and still make similar money with less risk on a hot streak.

Steel,

I think the Rays not the Indians would have been the "flip". I thought the flips were avoiding the heavy chalk focus picks?

*the flip of the favorite would have paid around +180 to +200 depending on the book or near +300 if you start paying the -1.5 run line on these preferred "dogs".

Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 Braves 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Indians -173 FocusFlips 7X's
 Pirates 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles 111
 Marlins 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 175 +130Dogs 1X's
 Reds 175 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 105
 Royals 103
 Cardinals -103
 Diamondbacks -182
 Brewers 106

Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Have you considered playing the -1.5 run lines on you dogs. Often your +130-180 dogs dogs will pay 190 to 270+ if/when you bet them at -1.5 to win.

Sure maybe 20% of winners will turn into losers; But the others will have increased payouts of up to 50% on the odds. Your Atl. pick today would have hit at +200 so 1400 bucks (at 7x) which can offset the 2 losers.

If you can average +200 odds you only need to hit 1 in 3 which you have easily done on the dogs long term - after factoring in -1.5 runline.

fyi: I went through your old results and this would have left you up nicely. When your algo runs hot it typically wins by over a run.
You should look into it; also you can decrease bets to 4x and still make similar money with less risk on a hot streak.

A lot of the offshore sites have a very low maximum on -1.5 run lines for dogs. Bookmaker is $500 as an example.

Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

I think the Rays not the Indians would have been the "flip". I thought the flips were avoiding the heavy chalk focus picks?

*the flip of the favorite would have paid around +180 to +200 depending on the book or near +300 if you start paying the -1.5 run line on these preferred "dogs".

Hey bazooooka, yes, thanks. I screwed up again.......for the 2nd. time and this is really costing me.
I guess I'm just hitting a point where I've got too many things going on.............sucks.

No picks today, steeldco?

Quote: RS

No picks today, steeldco?

I'm trying. I can't download all of the necessary data from baseball-ref.com. They seem to be having a problem with their site.

Today's Picks: (I feel good. gonna be a good day)

 Rays 158 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Mets 119 Focus 7X's
 Giants 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Nationals 120
 Orioles 133 +130Dogs 7X's
 Blue Jays 103
 Reds 164 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 117
 Royals 123
 Angels -164

Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks: (I feel good. gonna be a good day)

 Rays 158 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Mets 119 Focus 7X's
 Giants 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Nationals 120
 Orioles 133 +130Dogs 7X's
 Blue Jays 103
 Reds 164 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 117
 Royals 123
 Angels -164

Did you post yesterday's results yet ?

michael99000, thanks. I thought that I had, but I guess not. Here ya go.
Yesterday's Results:
 Braves +910
 Indians -1211
 Pirates -700
 Orioles +111
 Marlins -700
 Phillies -100
 Reds -700
 Rockies +105
 Royals -100
 Cardinals -103
 Diamondbacks +100
 Brewers +106

Yesterday's results: -2,282
+130dogs -1,290
Other dogs +222
Favorites -3
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips -1,211

YTD Total -13,492
+130dogs -997
Other dogs -537
Favorites -350
Focus Picks -9,138
FocusFlips -2,470

Steel, I have no problem if you correct your focus flip record (especially if you bet it properly)? It's pretty obvious that the flip is normally a heavy dog. Do you bet all these picks at units you post?

Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks: (I feel good. gonna be a good day)

Brutal, just brutal.

Yesterday's Results:
 Rays +1106
 Marlins -700
 Mets -700
 Giants -700
 Nationals -100
 Orioles -700
 Blue Jays -100
 Reds -700
 Phillies -100
 Royals -100
 Angels +100

Yesterday's results: -2,694
+130dogs -1,694
Other dogs -400
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -16,186
+130dogs -2,691
Other dogs -937
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -9,838
FocusFlips -2,470