Today's Picks:
Reds 111
White Sox -132 Focus 7X's
Astros 102
Yankees 105
Tigers 116
Twins 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres 118 Focus 7X's
Quote: steeldcoBoy, it sure seems like the number of +130dog picks has dried up. I'm going to look at the number of picks made at this time last year vs. this year.
LOL, I guess I'm going to show that I am full of crap again..........
Last year the number of +130dogs picked through 04/25/17 was 47. This year it picked 45. Close enough I guess.........just shows how little should be done on a subjective basis when data is available.
Quote: bazooookaHow far back have you tracked these (or backtested your algo)? How many years and picks? I'd assume over 1000+ if were talking year(s)? And are you near 40% over that large number of picks?
I started the +130dogs in August of 2013.
The total picks by year since then:
2016 195
2015 470
2014 472
2013 67
The win rate by year:
2016 43.08%
2015 38.94%
2014 43.43%
2013 49.25%
A sub 130 closing line would be consistent with the 40%+ hit rate. If you are are laying these at 145 or so you indeed will make good money and should only bet these types of picks for the next 1000 picks. 1000 picks hitting 5% above their expected rate does start to approach statistical significance I'd think.
Reds -100
White Sox +700
Astros -100
Yankees +105
Tigers -100
Twins -700
Padres +826
Yesterday's results: +631
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -195
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,526
YTD Total -4,141
+130dogs +3,673
Other dogs -1,115
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -5,708
Today's Picks:
Braves 195 +130Dogs 7X's
Mariners 123
Cardinals -179
Rockies 110
Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
Astros 160 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres 153 +130Dogs 7X's
Athletics 112
I do not see where you found this one at 132.Quote: steeldcoThe new daily indicator is foretelling a great day for the +130dogs today.......let's hope it's right.
Today's Picks:
<snip>
Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
william hill is at 116 and stations at 120
covers shows opened at 101 at 114 now
Giants home dog.
they won last night 2
go dogs!!
Sally
Quote: mustangsallyI do not see where you found this one at 132.
william hill is at 116 and stations at 120
covers shows opened at 101 at 114 now
Giants home dog.
they won last night 2
go dogs!!
Sally
The below is what was on SBGGlobal at the time that I posted:
Thursday, 27th April 2017
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1:05 PM
951 Marlins +1½ (-220) 8 (-105) -106
952 Phillies -1½ (+180) 8 (-115) -104
1:10 PM PITCHING CHANGEN Syndergaard for M Harvey
953 Braves +1½ (-120) 7 (-105) 195
954 Mets -1½ (EV) 7 (-115) -215
1:10 PM
961 Mariners +1½ (-175) 8 (-105) 123
962 Tigers -1½ (+155) 8 (-115) -133
1:45 PM Doubleheader Game #1PITCHING CHANGESM Latos for C LawrenceC Martinez for A Wainwright
969 D1 Blue Jays +1½ (-130) 8 (-120) 169
970 D1 Cardinals -1½ (+110) 8 (EV) -179
3:10 PM
955 Nationals -1½ (+135) 11 (-115) -120
956 Rockies +1½ (-155) 11 (-105) 110
3:45 PM
957 Dodgers -1½ (+115) 7½ (EV) -142
958 Giants +1½ (-135) 7½ (-120) 132
6:10 PM
963 Astros +1½ (-135) 8½ (-110) 160
964 Indians -1½ (+115) 8½ (-110) -170
7:10 PM
965 Yankees +1½ (-135) 7½ (EV) 164
966 Red Sox -1½ (+115) 7½ (-120) -174
7:15 PM PITCHING CHANGESC Lawrence for M LatosA Wainwright for C Martinez
971 D2 Blue Jays +1½ (-145) 8½ (-115) 151
972 D2 Cardinals -1½ (+125) 8½ (-105) -161
9:40 PM
959 Padres +1½ (-135) 10½ (-105) 153
960 Diamondbacks -1½ (+115) 10½ (-115) -163
10:05 PM
967 Athletics +1½ (-200) 8 (-115) 112
968 Angels -1½ (+170) 8 (-105) -122
Also, this is what Covers has:
BetNow.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 7:23:26 PM
115 (Open)
7.5-105 (Open)
04/26/17 7:42:45 PM
115
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:33:12 PM
115
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:42:47 PM
123
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:02:46 PM
125
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:42:45 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:43:00 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:32:46 AM
135
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:42:45 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:42:45 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:52:55 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:22:45 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:42:45 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:02:45 PM
116
7.5-130
BetOnline.ag
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 1:28:41 PM
101 (Open)
8-115 (Open)
04/26/17 3:48:27 PM
113
7.5100
04/26/17 4:58:28 PM
113
7.5-105
04/26/17 7:48:26 PM
113
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:38:27 PM
124
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:58:26 PM
125
7.5-110
04/26/17 11:38:26 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:38:27 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 6:48:25 AM
130
7.5-120
04/27/17 7:08:30 AM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 7:58:25 AM
127
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:18:25 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:08:29 AM
122
7.5-130
04/27/17 10:58:26 AM
115
7.5-130
BookMaker
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 3:45:15 PM
114 (Open)
7.5100 (Open)
04/26/17 7:55:14 PM
114
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:45:11 PM
114
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:55:11 PM
123
7.5-115
04/27/17 12:25:12 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:35:12 AM
131
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:55:13 AM
130
7.5-120
04/27/17 3:35:12 AM
129
7.5-120
04/27/17 8:55:12 AM
131
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:15:13 AM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:45:12 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:25:13 AM
123
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:05:13 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:15:13 AM
114
7.5-125
GTbets.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 10:21:08 PM
115 (Open)
7.5-110 (Open)
04/26/17 10:31:08 PM
115
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:41:09 PM
123
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:01:07 PM
125
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:41:06 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:31:08 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:41:06 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:31:07 AM
135
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:41:09 AM
133
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:51:07 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 3:31:08 AM
132
7.5-115
04/27/17 4:11:07 AM
131
7.5-115
04/27/17 6:51:08 AM
128
7.5-115
04/27/17 7:51:07 AM
130
7.5-115
04/27/17 9:11:06 AM
122
7.5-115
04/27/17 9:21:06 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:11:07 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:21:06 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:31:06 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:41:08 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:51:08 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:01:08 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:11:06 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:21:07 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:31:07 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:41:06 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:51:09 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:01:07 PM
116
7.5-130
04/27/17 12:11:09 PM
116
7.5-130
Quote: RSWhich Cardinals game is that?
1st. game. The algorithm will never pick the 2nd. half of a double header.
Quote: bazooookaYeah, I've been following your picks as well and often I can't get a line within 5 to 10% of the numbers you post (I assuming your betting these). Thus I factor that the +130 you post are often +120 to +125 in real world application (for me at least) and I'd need to hit above 43% even since the average odds lay ended up being +135 based on small sample. That bar seems very high and I don't think one can consistently pick these dogs above 43% over 1000 picks. I hope I'm wrong. But good pick on the Braves!
Below is the line history from Covers. My comment to you, with all due respect, and just like for Mustangsally, would be to get up earlier. :-)
BetNow.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 7:12:47 PM
-205 (Open)
7-120 (Open)
04/26/17 10:33:12 PM
-210
7-120
04/27/17 12:12:45 AM
-215
7-120
04/27/17 1:42:45 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 11:02:45 AM
-215
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:12:45 AM
-173
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:22:45 AM
-164
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:12:55 PM
-164
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:22:45 PM
-164
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:32:46 PM
-163
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:42:46 PM
-161
7.5-105
BetOnline.ag
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 1:18:27 PM
-175 (Open)
7-105 (Open)
04/26/17 3:38:36 PM
-176
7-115
04/26/17 3:48:27 PM
-201
7-115
04/26/17 4:58:28 PM
-207
7-120
04/27/17 12:18:26 AM
-217
7-120
04/27/17 1:38:27 AM
-217
7-110
04/27/17 3:38:26 AM
-217
7-107
04/27/17 6:18:26 AM
-217
7-110
04/27/17 7:18:26 AM
-220
7-110
04/27/17 8:08:26 AM
-225
7-110
04/27/17 9:38:27 AM
-208
7-115
04/27/17 9:58:26 AM
-197
7-115
04/27/17 11:08:26 AM
-173
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:18:27 AM
-165
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:28:27 AM
-161
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:08:31 PM
-159
7.5-115
04/27/17 12:18:27 PM
-159
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:48:28 PM
-158
7.5-105
04/27/17 1:08:33 PM
-160
7.5105
BookMaker
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 3:45:15 PM
-200 (Open)
7-115 (Open)
04/26/17 9:45:12 PM
-206
7-115
04/27/17 12:05:12 AM
-210
7-115
04/27/17 1:25:12 AM
-212
7-115
04/27/17 3:35:12 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 8:55:12 AM
-230
7-115
04/27/17 9:35:13 AM
-220
7-115
04/27/17 9:45:12 AM
-217
7-115
04/27/17 10:05:11 AM
-210
7-115
04/27/17 11:15:13 AM
-210
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:25:12 AM
-170
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:25:15 PM
-165
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:35:12 PM
-165
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:45:12 PM
-166
7.5-105
04/27/17 1:05:13 PM
-170
7.5-101
GTbets.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 10:21:07 PM
-205 (Open)
OFF
04/26/17 10:21:08 PM
-205
7-120 (Open)
04/26/17 10:41:09 PM
-210
7-120
04/27/17 12:11:13 AM
-215
7-120
04/27/17 1:41:08 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 3:31:08 AM
-215
7-110
04/27/17 6:21:08 AM
-215
7-115
04/27/17 7:21:07 AM
-222
7-115
04/27/17 8:01:08 AM
-225
7-115
04/27/17 9:41:08 AM
-215
7-120
04/27/17 10:01:07 AM
-205
7-120
04/27/17 11:41:06 AM
-164
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:11:08 PM
-164
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:21:09 PM
-164
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:31:07 PM
-163
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:41:10 PM
-161
7.5-105
04/27/17 12:51:07 PM
-161
7.5-105
04/27/17 1:01:10 PM
-161
7.5-105
I have no worries about him posting fictitious lines or his integrity in general.
Quote: RigondeauxI've often found better lines than what steel posts. If anything, I'd criticize him for not getting more outs.
I have no worries about him posting fictitious lines or his integrity in general.
Rigondeaux, pardon the possible dumb question here, but what do you mean by "more outs"?
Quote: steeldcoRigondeaux, pardon the possible dumb question here, but what do you mean by "more outs"?
Geez....never mind Rigondeaux. I get it.
Man, it's hell getting old............
San Diego and Houston went up. I see nothing unusual happening.
1.5 spread lines and +150 will have +190 spread lines at times. I bet you'll find that that the extra run line juice will offset the rare 1 run game. When I lake the underdog I usually like them to win by 2 runs (not all sites allow). Same when I bet favs. 1 run games seem random and thus extra juice normally worth it to have your team win by 2+. Or a push if you can find the rare +/- 1 run line. Braves today would have paid huge if you had bet them to win by over 1.5 runs.
Braves +1365
Mariners +123
Cardinals +100
Rockies -100
Giants -700
Astros -700
Padres -700
Athletics -100
Yesterday's results: -712
+130dogs -735
Other dogs -77
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total -4,853
+130dogs +2,938
Other dogs -1,192
Favorites -891
Focus Picks -5,708
Mets 156 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays 128 Focus 7X's
Orioles 110
Indians -202 Focus 7X's
Red Sox 112
Rangers 106
Braves 115
Reds 140 +130Dogs 7X's
Mets +1092
Rays +896
Orioles -100
Indians -1414
Red Sox +112
Rangers -100
Braves +115
Reds -700
Yesterday's results: -99
+130dogs +392
Other dogs +27
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -518
YTD Total -4,952
+130dogs +3,330
Other dogs -1,165
Favorites -891
Focus Picks -6,226
Today's Picks:
Rays 109 Focus 7X's
Mets 180 +130Dogs 7X's
Yankees -170
Tigers -165
Reds 153 +130Dogs 7X's
Red Sox 108
Indians -186 Focus 7X's
Athletics 142 +130Dogs 7X's
Pirates 115
Braves 109
Phillies 195 +130Dogs 7X's
I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.
Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.
Quote: bazooookaSteel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.
I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.
Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.
Thanks bazooooka, I appreciate the commentary. I'm going to review this and take a deep dive into why the Focus Picks have sucked.
Rays -700
Mets +1260
Yankees +100
Tigers -165
Reds 0
Red Sox -100
Indians +700
Athletics +994
Pirates +115
Braves +109
Phillies -700
Yesterday's results: +1,613
+130dogs +1,554
Other dogs +124
Favorites -65
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total -3,339
+130dogs +4,884
Other dogs -1,041
Favorites -956
Focus Picks -6,226
Orioles 108
Rays -112 Focus 1X's
Indians -157 7X's
Mets -123 Focus 7X's
Brewers -103
Athletics 187 Focus 7X's
Reds 155 +130Dogs 7X's
Padres 125
Rockies 130 +130Dogs 7X's
Phillies 183 +130Dogs 7X's
Quote: bazooookaSteel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.
I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.
Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.
bazooooka, you are pretty much right on. I'm going to fade any focus pick that is greater than a 150 favorite and is the home team.
Doing so this year would meant a positive swing of 9,205. The impact on last year's Focus Picks would have increased the total win by 32%.
Thanks!!
Orioles +108
Rays -112
Indians +700
Mets -861
Brewers +100
Athletics -700
Reds +1085
Padres +125
Rockies -700
Phillies -700
Yesterday's results: -955
+130dogs -315
Other dogs +233
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -973
YTD Total -4,294
+130dogs +4,569
Other dogs -808
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -7,199
Today's Picks:
Blue Jays 155 +130Dogs 1X's
Reds 108
Orioles 127
Tigers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays 133 +130Dogs 1X's
White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
Quote: bazooookaSteel why the 1x on the Rays and Jays. Did you see something that made you adjust down the sizing? Detroit looks like a nice pick.
Cuz Rays and Blue Jays had been underperforming or something, so he dropped them from being 7x'able.
Quote: billryanI wish you folks spoke English on occasion so I'd have a clue of wha'ts going on here.
baseball team "rays" bad.
steeldco no big bet rays.
baseball team "blue jays" bad.
steeldco no big bet blue jays.
saloon offer baseball wager.
steeldco machine tell good wager.
sometime machine say good wager rays.
other time machine say good wager blue jays.
steeldco wager small.
Quote: RSCuz Rays and Blue Jays had been underperforming or something, so he dropped them from being 7x'able.
Actually the Rays, Blue Jays, and Rangers had all been backlisted and only played for the minimum.
That blacklist today is changing to Rays, Rangers, and Phillies.
Blue Jays +155
Reds +108
Orioles +127
Tigers +910
Rays +133
White Sox -700
Yesterday's results: +733
+130dogs +498
Other dogs +235
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total -3,561
+130dogs +5,067
Other dogs -573
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -7,199
Today's Picks:
Diamondbacks 126 Focus 7X's
Blue Jays 184 +130Dogs 1X's
Red Sox -235 FocusFlips 7X's
Tigers 110
Phillies 195 +130Dogs 1X's
Athletics 127
Brewers 166 +130Dogs 7X's
Angels 131 +130Dogs 7X's
Are you taking the Sox or the flip/fade? I'd assume the flip would be the Orioles at +210 or greater? I thought Focus flip meant taking the big Underdogs on the idea that the favorite has been over-bet?
Quote: bazooookaSteel,
Are you taking the Sox or the flip/fade? I'd assume the flip would be the Orioles at +210 or greater? I thought Focus flip meant taking the big Underdogs on the idea that the favorite has been over-bet?
Thanks bazooooka, apparently so simple of a change that I screwed it up.............
Corrected Today's Picks:
Diamondbacks 126 Focus 7X's
Blue Jays 184 +130Dogs 1X's
Orioles 215 FocusFlips 7X's
Tigers 110
Phillies 195 +130Dogs 1X's
Athletics 127
Brewers 166 +130Dogs 7X's
Angels 131 +130Dogs 7X's
Diamondbacks +882
Blue Jays -100
Orioles -700
Tigers +110
Phillies -100
Athletics -100
Brewers -700
Angels +917
Yesterday's results: +209
+130dogs +17
Other dogs +10
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +882
YTD Total -3,352
+130dogs +5,084
Other dogs -563
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -6,317
FocusFlips -700
Diamondbacks 122 Focus 7X's
Blue Jays -102
Orioles 133 +130Dogs 7X's
Marlins 114
Braves 119
Rangers 166 FocusFlips 7X's
Brewers 145 +130Dogs 7X's
White Sox 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Giants 152 +130Dogs 7X's
Diamondbacks -700
Blue Jays -102
Orioles -700
Marlins +114
Braves -100
Rangers -700
Brewers 0
White Sox -700
Giants +1064
Yesterday's results: -1,824
+130dogs -336
Other dogs +14
Favorites -102
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips -700
YTD Total -5,176
+130dogs +4,748
Other dogs -549
Favorites -958
Focus Picks -7,017
FocusFlips -1400