Thread Rating:

mustangsally
mustangsally
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
April 19th, 2017 at 10:53:14 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
  Angels 152 Focus 7X's

why is this only a focus in your tally
as it can also be a 130+?

Angels won
thanks
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 19th, 2017 at 11:44:28 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

why is this only a focus in your tally
as it can also be a 130+?

Angels won
thanks
Sally



The Focus picks are off of a different algorithm. They didn't get picked with the first algorithm, which is where the +130dogs come from.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 19th, 2017 at 10:47:24 PM permalink
Nice call on the focus picks. However I think the bankroll will live and die with how you do overall on the 7x part. The rest of the picks seem like they were near even money for the last few years. If you start bouncing the 7x all over it might be hard to hit those above 40%. The ability to identify 7x picks supersedes 130 plays. But your 130 plays have done well even if you divide by 7 so you may really have found something. However, sneaky good teams normally only stay dogs early in the season and vice versa for the favorites who aren't going to be who we thought they were.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
April 20th, 2017 at 4:58:16 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

However, sneaky good teams normally only stay dogs early in the season and vice versa for the favorites who aren't going to be who we thought they were.


I'll let Steel speak for his algorithm, but If you check out threads from previous years he flips the dog picks towards the end of the season.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12803
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
April 20th, 2017 at 6:43:09 AM permalink
Does anyone here know of a good publicly available database that breaks down the type of each pitch (ie. fastball, curve, slider, changeup, etc)? I would like to do some analysis of each hitter against each type of pitch and use that data for future matchups.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 7:37:47 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Does anyone here know of a good publicly available database that breaks down the type of each pitch (ie. fastball, curve, slider, changeup, etc)? I would like to do some analysis of each hitter against each type of pitch and use that data for future matchups.



There a page on the sabr.org website entitled "A Guide to Sabermetric Research: How to find Raw Data" that may help you?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 7:40:15 AM permalink
gamerfreak, you are mostly correct. Actually, I drop the +130dogs and use the dogflips before All-Star break and for a bit after the All-star break and then switch back.

However, I am starting to become interested in this daily indicator that I have stumbled across. It may alter my MO a bit if it continues to do OK.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 7:43:49 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

But actually, that's not the indicator that I have run across. As a matter of fact, right now I see a mediocre Thursday (tomorrow), a good sized loss on Friday, and a mediocre to small gain on Saturday.



The daily indicator that I have stumbled across seemed to work insofar as it limited my loss yesterday when I throttled back the wager size because of the indicator. Since it is foretelling a bad Friday for the +130dogs, I will again be curtailing the wager size today.

Yesterday's Results:
 Cardinals + 700
 Cubs +100
 Marlins -100
 Blue Jays +102
 Phillies -100
 Angels -100
 Twins 0
 Royals +132
 Padres +125

Yesterday's results: +859
+130dogs -68
Other dogs +125
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +802

YTD Total +1,175
+130dogs +5,973
Other dogs -306
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -3,613
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 7:54:19 AM permalink
deleted due to error
Last edited by: steeldco on Apr 20, 2017
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
April 20th, 2017 at 9:13:05 AM permalink
Nationals +125?

What????
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 9:44:46 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Nationals +125?

What????



Not sure what happened here. Will need to re-post.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 9:52:28 AM permalink
Let's try this again....
Today's Picks:
  Blue Jays 139 Focus 1X's
 Twins EV
 Tigers 112 Focus 7X's
 Angels 153 +130Dogs 1X's
 Nationals -166
 Rangers 106
 Cardinals -113 Focus 7X's
 Mariners -147

RS, thanks for pointing out my screw up!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 20th, 2017 at 3:37:05 PM permalink
It looks like the daily indicator was in the ballpark. Throttling back the +130dog wager size saved 600 today.
Since the indicator is calling for a bad day tomorrow, I am considering not playing the +130dogs at all tomorrow.
I will publish them even if I don't take them.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 20th, 2017 at 4:28:21 PM permalink
Steel,

Did you backtest this indicator against all your old +130 dogs of last few years? Should we assume your 1x picks will hit at less then 40% based on your changing bankroll? At 7x dog picks are you expecting near 50% win rates?
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 21st, 2017 at 4:50:05 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Blue Jays -100
 Twins -100
 Tigers -700
 Angels -100
 Nationals +100
 Rangers +106
 Cardinals -791
 Mariners -147

Yesterday's results: -1,732
+130dogs -100
Other dogs +6
Favorites -47
Focus Picks -1,591

YTD Total -557
+130dogs +5,873
Other dogs -300
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -5,204
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 21st, 2017 at 4:56:31 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Did you backtest this indicator against all your old +130 dogs of last few years? Should we assume your 1x picks will hit at less then 40% based on your changing bankroll? At 7x dog picks are you expecting near 50% win rates?



No. It was not back tested. That would require way too much time. I can assure you that if it wouldn't be a tortuous effort, I would do it. The 1X picks would, should this process work, hit at a lower rate. Conversely, the ones remaining at 7Xs would hit a higher rate. What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. I have no idea whether this change will provide value. Not yet.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 21st, 2017 at 10:11:31 AM permalink
Well, this is interesting. I have no need to worry about +130dogs having a bad day. There were none picked today.

Today's Picks:
 Braves 102
 Mets -141 Focus 7X's
 White Sox 139 Focus 7X's
 Mariners 113
 Padres 102
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
April 21st, 2017 at 10:31:56 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Well, this is interesting. I have no need to worry about +130dogs having a bad day. There were none picked today.

Today's Picks:
 Braves 102
 Mets -141 Focus 7X's
 White Sox 139 Focus 7X's
 Mariners 113
 Padres 102



Have you ever calculated what all the 130+ dogs would net (up until you start flipping), to compared with the algorithm?
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 21st, 2017 at 1:11:32 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Have you ever calculated what all the 130+ dogs would net (up until you start flipping), to compared with the algorithm?



I assume you mean to include all 130+ dogs whether they were picked by the algorithm or not? If so, I have not done that. If I have some time I'll see if I can.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 21st, 2017 at 1:37:07 PM permalink
gamerfreak, now that I have thought about it some. I believe that I did do that in the first year that I started to believe that the +130dogs (picked by the algorithm) worked. I'll have to check the old threads. They didn't do as well as the algorithm's picks.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
April 21st, 2017 at 1:41:23 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I assume you mean to include all 130+ dogs whether they were picked by the algorithm or not? If so, I have not done that. If I have some time I'll see if I can.


Right, I am wondering much more accurate the algorithms 130+ dog picks are compared to betting all 130+ dogs.

I have no intuitition either way, I am just curious and do not have baseball data in front of me to check.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 21st, 2017 at 4:48:16 PM permalink
Steel, Why make the change then? Your 7x +130 picks have done well. Unless a back-test showed you something over a large sample (i.e. don't go with Lefty in a night game etc) then why bounce your units around. If there is an edge in the +130 dogs it does make sense to bet them bigger.

7x makes sense maybe if 1x is only 1% of your bankroll. But if you end up above 40% on your +130 dogs you wish you kept the unit size up. Maybe scale more from 2x to 5x; 7x or 1x seems extreme.


>
"What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. "
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 21st, 2017 at 4:53:03 PM permalink
gamer,

If you played all +130 dogs for the entire season you'd lose. There has never been a season where that would have worked well. Typically the dogs do better early since presumed bad teams often up being good. But by AllStar break Vegas normally knows the true talent of the squads and the +130 dogs don't hit much more often then 35%. When teams like the Cubs struggle out of the gate one can make a few bones picking the dogs that have beat them. That won't last though.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
April 21st, 2017 at 5:32:01 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

gamer,

If you played all +130 dogs for the entire season you'd lose. There has never been a season where that would have worked well. Typically the dogs do better early since presumed bad teams often up being good. But by AllStar break Vegas normally knows the true talent of the squads and the +130 dogs don't hit much more often then 35%. When teams like the Cubs struggle out of the gate one can make a few bones picking the dogs that have beat them. That won't last though.


I figured 130+ alone were not a winning strategy, but it seems like a decent subset to make picks from, so I'm just curious how much of a difference from baseline the algorithm is making for early season 130 dogs.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 21st, 2017 at 6:28:51 PM permalink
Historically +130 dogs and similar have done well in April (and even into May). But if one can hit winners in Summer (especially July or later) then there may be an edge.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 21st, 2017 at 6:55:54 PM permalink
Steel, What's the logic behind the 7x Focus picks. Are these presumed teams that are better then betting public thinks? If so these may also benefit from being played after April or May since there is so much noise in early season results. For example, SF Giants are a decent team that I wouldn't touch until later in the year Mets are similar.

Just like you brought in your 7x dogs plays into April (since that was their sweet spot) maybe these Focus picks might not really pick up until Summer as their sweet spot.

Right now they seem to be good contra-indicator or fade material (and the same fade logic applies to the +130s dogs later on this Summer when maybe the other side of the ledger will be worth of extra units bets).
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 22nd, 2017 at 6:08:37 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results are below. The new daily indicator is foretelling a good day today for the +130dogs. The wager size will be going back up to 7X's for those, assuming of course that there are some picked.

 Braves -100
 Mets -987
 White Sox -700
 Mariners -100
 Padres +102

Yesterday's results: -1,785
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -98
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,687

YTD Total -2,342
+130dogs +5,873
Other dogs -398
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -6,891
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 22nd, 2017 at 6:12:37 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, Why make the change then? Your 7x +130 picks have done well. Unless a back-test showed you something over a large sample (i.e. don't go with Lefty in a night game etc) then why bounce your units around. If there is an edge in the +130 dogs it does make sense to bet them bigger.

7x makes sense maybe if 1x is only 1% of your bankroll. But if you end up above 40% on your +130 dogs you wish you kept the unit size up. Maybe scale more from 2x to 5x; 7x or 1x seems extreme.


>
"What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. "



bazooooka, I appreciate the feedback. What you state isn't necessarily incorrect or untrue. The flip side is that the new daily indicator has really not been wrong yet and since my only downside over a short period of time is that I gain less, I choose to give it a shot. Generally, I am always on the look out for improvement. I'm not a believer in necessarily leaving well enough alone.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 22nd, 2017 at 6:15:03 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, What's the logic behind the 7x Focus picks. Are these presumed teams that are better then betting public thinks? If so these may also benefit from being played after April or May since there is so much noise in early season results. For example, SF Giants are a decent team that I wouldn't touch until later in the year Mets are similar.

Just like you brought in your 7x dogs plays into April (since that was their sweet spot) maybe these Focus picks might not really pick up until Summer as their sweet spot.

Right now they seem to be good contra-indicator or fade material (and the same fade logic applies to the +130s dogs later on this Summer when maybe the other side of the ledger will be worth of extra units bets).



The Focus picks sprouted from an effort to find a way to pick favorites. It evolved a bit from that. I am now going to re-look at these this weekend since they have started out so badly.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 22nd, 2017 at 6:49:07 AM permalink
WTF.....only 1 +130dog pick and it's a team that I wrote recently I would not play more than 1X's on.

 Rays 110
 Braves 104
 Brewers 110
 Diamondbacks 103
 Giants 102
 Blue Jays 145 +130Dogs 1X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 22nd, 2017 at 7:25:53 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The Focus picks sprouted from an effort to find a way to pick favorites. It evolved a bit from that. I am now going to re-look at these this weekend since they have started out so badly.



An initial look shows that I started the Focus Picks in 2014. They have won each year (2014 doesn't show as a net win because of my lousy money management then in raising the wager size at incorrect times). Except for this year so far. They are hitting at a horrendous 29.63% win rate this year and have been a tremendous drag on total profitability. So far this year they have only been in the black for a grand total of 1 day. Changes may be in store for this group unless it starts turning around.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 22nd, 2017 at 5:58:10 PM permalink
Steel,

How long have you been betting for? Are you up lifetime in MLB? Or maybe just past 3-5 years? Also what Sports have treated you well (and not so well). You seem like you've been in this betting game for a minute or two =)
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 23rd, 2017 at 6:04:07 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

How long have you been betting for? Are you up lifetime in MLB? Or maybe just past 3-5 years? Also what Sports have treated you well (and not so well). You seem like you've been in this betting game for a minute or two =)



I've admitted in the past that I'm pretty much as old as dirt and have always been a risk taker. Losses piled up early since I didn't devote the time and research necessary to do this properly with a hope of success. Didn't have a clue actually. It was all subjective early on and I'm too much of a dumb ass to pick on that basis. The introduction of PCs, and development of software, helped a whole bunch since now you can work with large amounts of data without needing to employee dozens of people to do it. How well I have done, or not done, is pretty much posted here. MLB has treated me the best. NFL has been mediocre. NBA has absolutely sucked, although I see a little light at the end of the tunnel in the NBA as this year ended. I took a whack at trying to predict horse race results and failed miserably at that.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 23rd, 2017 at 6:16:07 AM permalink
It looks like my short blacklist of teams served me well by limiting my loss on the Blue Jays.

Yesterday's Results:
 Rays +110
 Braves -100
 Brewers -100
 Diamondbacks +103
 Giants -100
 Blue Jays -100

Yesterday's results: -187
+130dogs -100
Other dogs -87
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -2,529
+130dogs +5,773
Other dogs -485
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -6,891
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 23rd, 2017 at 6:28:47 AM permalink
The minimal number of +130dog picks lately is really weird.

Today's Picks:
 Cubs -165
 Astros -109
 Phillies 106
 Yankees 103
 Brewers 104
 Tigers 109
 Rockies 101
 Diamondbacks 122
 Padres 101
 Mets 135 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
April 23rd, 2017 at 7:38:23 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The minimal number of +130dog picks lately is really weird.

Today's Picks:
 Cubs -165
 Astros -109
 Phillies 106
 Yankees 103
 Brewers 104
 Tigers 109
 Rockies 101
 Diamondbacks 122
 Padres 101
 Mets 135 +130Dogs 7X's



Not really as it just means more people are betting on MLB therefore changing the price of underdogs fro the 130and above range. I found the same thing here in Australia ten years ago you got limited choice of overseas matches to bet on but the spread between favourites and underdog was huge. Favs would be $1:20 and underdogs $2:90 +...... then not a lot of betting activity here ...now a lot of people have access to oseas betting sites, prices drop and now multiple betting has lowered the price range even more as more people use that format to bet. It may mean that your tag of +130 dogs need to change and now the range is more like the+ 110 dogs as an example. Price refers to number of people already betting on that team etc. as a by and by here in Australia odds of your+130 dogs should transfer as 2:60 here but most often the price I get is 1:95-2:60 . So here we already get a different price but it is still lucrative when multi betting at this point in time.
I used to do a lot of horse racing and made good money but the betting agencies here allowed flexy betting ie %units on trifecta and it made many bets that would win and it diluted the betting pool. So now not so good. Hopefully don't happen in MLB or NFL. The price structure on nrl in Australia has become very slim in last few years as more people bet on multiple legs etc. still money can be made. Thanks have fun.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
April 23rd, 2017 at 7:57:14 PM permalink
I will get a screen shot from local betting site next time I can to show price different between there and here. One other thing that may be of consideration is this statement I've heard many times over the years. The price is wrong for my selection therefore I not going to bet. Of course it usually wins then you hear the cry cry. Etc. My reply is most often if the selection has qualified as per whatever the criteria was then it should be bet on what ever the price Examples +130 dog is now +120 bet as per selection. As already stated sometimes your underdogs here in Australia is only $0:05 cents different from favourites ie $1:85vs $1:90 . But it goes in my selection as per your tips. But I do need to state I bet for long term and not for immediate win result daily. Would be nice etc but facts are facts. Thanks
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
April 23rd, 2017 at 7:59:56 PM permalink
Phew too much hard work. I'm off to beach as it's still warm here. Thanks
RisingDough
RisingDough
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 227
Joined: Oct 4, 2016
April 24th, 2017 at 1:49:10 AM permalink
Quote: beachmonkey

I will get a screen shot from local betting site next time I can to show price different between there and here. One other thing that may be of consideration is this statement I've heard many times over the years. The price is wrong for my selection therefore I not going to bet. Of course it usually wins then you hear the cry cry. Etc. My reply is most often if the selection has qualified as per whatever the criteria was then it should be bet on what ever the price Examples +130 dog is now +120 bet as per selection. As already stated sometimes your underdogs here in Australia is only $0:05 cents different from favourites ie $1:85vs $1:90 . But it goes in my selection as per your tips. But I do need to state I bet for long term and not for immediate win result daily. Would be nice etc but facts are facts. Thanks

%

I'd have to disagree as I think the price is the reason for a selection. You are betting because you think the price being offered has long term value. If you estimate that team "A" should win this match up 50% of the time and the price is +105 you should bet it, however if the price moves to -105 it is no longer profitable and therefore no longer a bet. Line shopping is paramount in sports betting. Back in the day when I was really into it I had 36 different offshore sports books funded and 6 local bookies I could use. I made sure I always got the best price. That being said obviously you will have times when the price moves a few cents and it is still profitable just less so. This happens often and is annoying when you missed out on a better price, but if it's still in the range of profitability you should bet it.

Hey beachmonkey I wanna go to the beach!!! Do you have an extra towel? Also would definitely like to see the screenshot of the Australia bookmakers.
What is life if not a gamble?
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
Thanked by
RisingDough
April 24th, 2017 at 4:05:18 AM permalink
Yes you are very correct as per your statement 100%. You are correct because that's your selection criteria and you must bet per your rules. For my selection criteria I bet multiple teams/events on the one ticket. I can have 3 to 10 events on the one ticket, I also mix and match my events so on the one day I may have four or five different tickets with a number of combinations of the same teams selected. I now look to spend least to get better return. If you go back a couple of pages of this thread I've already listed roughly what I do. Too much to repeat. I do quite well with the way I bet.
But most important things however you bet/select always stick to your rules. Have fun will post a screen shot tonight if I'm able to catch steeldco selection before I go to bed. It's usually after midnight when I get the selection. Cheers.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
April 24th, 2017 at 4:05:22 AM permalink
Yes you are very correct as per your statement 100%. You are correct because that's your selection criteria and you must bet per your rules. For my selection criteria I bet multiple teams/events on the one ticket. I can have 3 to 10 events on the one ticket, I also mix and match my events so on the one day I may have four or five different tickets with a number of combinations of the same teams selected. I now look to spend least to get better return. If you go back a couple of pages of this thread I've already listed roughly what I do. Too much to repeat. I do quite well with the way I bet.
But most important things however you bet/select always stick to your rules. Have fun will post a screen shot tonight if I'm able to catch steeldco selection before I go to bed. It's usually after midnight when I get the selection. Cheers.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
April 24th, 2017 at 5:14:53 AM permalink
Sorry can't seem to get photos from phone to this message page.
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 180
Joined: May 13, 2015
Thanked by
RisingDough
April 24th, 2017 at 5:26:57 AM permalink
Here's a typo of games listed in Australia $.
Baltimore $2:00 Tampabay $1:80.
Pittsburgh $2:00 Chicago cubs $1:80.
Milwaukee $1:95 Cincinnati $1:87.
Texas 1:75 Minnesota 2:10
White sox 1:95 kanas 1:87
Arizona 1:55 San Diego 2:45
Angles 1:80 Toronto 2:05
San Francisco 2:25 Dodgers 1:65.
When my tech guru awakens in morning I'll see if the 12 yr old can sort it for me. Should not be a problem. Ha ha
Hope above helps in mean time.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 24th, 2017 at 9:44:17 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Cubs -165
 Astros +100
 Phillies +106
 Yankees -100
 Brewers -100
 Tigers +109
 Rockies +101
 Diamondbacks -100
 Padres -100
 Mets -700

Yesterday's results: -849
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -84
Favorites -65
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -3,378
+130dogs +5,073
Other dogs -569
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -6,891
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 24th, 2017 at 9:53:10 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
  Pirates 108
 Orioles 108 Focus 7X's
 Blue Jays 119
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 25th, 2017 at 4:56:28 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Pirates -100
 Orioles +756
 Blue Jays -100

Yesterday's results: +556
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +756

YTD Total -2,822
+130dogs +5,073
Other dogs -769
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -6,135
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 25th, 2017 at 5:04:55 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Indians 113
 Pirates 127
 Orioles -157 Focus 7X's
 Yankees 113
 Tigers 120
 Reds 105
 White Sox 129
 Rockies 104
 Padres 138 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
April 25th, 2017 at 5:56:47 PM permalink
Steel, how many +130 dogs have you picked year to date and what percent have they come in at (40%)? Also where are you finding the best odds (i.e. I didn't see today's Padres pick at anywhere near 140; 115-120 at all books I checked). Always good sign if you seeing something early and the money moves the line in your direction.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 26th, 2017 at 10:26:53 AM permalink
There have been 45 +130dogs picked through yesterday. 19 have won for a win rate of 42.22%. I use SBG Global but only because their format is the easiest to copy and paste into a file.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
April 26th, 2017 at 10:28:10 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Tigers +120
 Reds -100
 White Sox +129
 Rockies -100
 Padres -700

Yesterday's results: -1,950
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -151
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,099

YTD Total -4,772
+130dogs +4,373
Other dogs -920
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -7,234
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
  • Jump to: