why is this only a focus in your tallyQuote: steeldcoToday's Picks:
Angels 152 Focus 7X's
as it can also be a 130+?
Angels won
thanks
Sally
Quote: mustangsallywhy is this only a focus in your tally
as it can also be a 130+?
Angels won
thanks
Sally
The Focus picks are off of a different algorithm. They didn't get picked with the first algorithm, which is where the +130dogs come from.
Quote: bazooookaHowever, sneaky good teams normally only stay dogs early in the season and vice versa for the favorites who aren't going to be who we thought they were.
I'll let Steel speak for his algorithm, but If you check out threads from previous years he flips the dog picks towards the end of the season.
Quote: DRichDoes anyone here know of a good publicly available database that breaks down the type of each pitch (ie. fastball, curve, slider, changeup, etc)? I would like to do some analysis of each hitter against each type of pitch and use that data for future matchups.
There a page on the sabr.org website entitled "A Guide to Sabermetric Research: How to find Raw Data" that may help you?
However, I am starting to become interested in this daily indicator that I have stumbled across. It may alter my MO a bit if it continues to do OK.
Quote: steeldcoBut actually, that's not the indicator that I have run across. As a matter of fact, right now I see a mediocre Thursday (tomorrow), a good sized loss on Friday, and a mediocre to small gain on Saturday.
The daily indicator that I have stumbled across seemed to work insofar as it limited my loss yesterday when I throttled back the wager size because of the indicator. Since it is foretelling a bad Friday for the +130dogs, I will again be curtailing the wager size today.
Yesterday's Results:
Cardinals + 700
Cubs +100
Marlins -100
Blue Jays +102
Phillies -100
Angels -100
Twins 0
Royals +132
Padres +125
Yesterday's results: +859
+130dogs -68
Other dogs +125
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +802
YTD Total +1,175
+130dogs +5,973
Other dogs -306
Favorites -879
Focus Picks -3,613
What????
Quote: RSNationals +125?
What????
Not sure what happened here. Will need to re-post.
Today's Picks:
Blue Jays 139 Focus 1X's
Twins EV
Tigers 112 Focus 7X's
Angels 153 +130Dogs 1X's
Nationals -166
Rangers 106
Cardinals -113 Focus 7X's
Mariners -147
RS, thanks for pointing out my screw up!
Since the indicator is calling for a bad day tomorrow, I am considering not playing the +130dogs at all tomorrow.
I will publish them even if I don't take them.
Did you backtest this indicator against all your old +130 dogs of last few years? Should we assume your 1x picks will hit at less then 40% based on your changing bankroll? At 7x dog picks are you expecting near 50% win rates?
Blue Jays -100
Twins -100
Tigers -700
Angels -100
Nationals +100
Rangers +106
Cardinals -791
Mariners -147
Yesterday's results: -1,732
+130dogs -100
Other dogs +6
Favorites -47
Focus Picks -1,591
YTD Total -557
+130dogs +5,873
Other dogs -300
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -5,204
Quote: bazooookaSteel,
Did you backtest this indicator against all your old +130 dogs of last few years? Should we assume your 1x picks will hit at less then 40% based on your changing bankroll? At 7x dog picks are you expecting near 50% win rates?
No. It was not back tested. That would require way too much time. I can assure you that if it wouldn't be a tortuous effort, I would do it. The 1X picks would, should this process work, hit at a lower rate. Conversely, the ones remaining at 7Xs would hit a higher rate. What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. I have no idea whether this change will provide value. Not yet.
Today's Picks:
Braves 102
Mets -141 Focus 7X's
White Sox 139 Focus 7X's
Mariners 113
Padres 102
Quote: steeldcoWell, this is interesting. I have no need to worry about +130dogs having a bad day. There were none picked today.
Today's Picks:
Braves 102
Mets -141 Focus 7X's
White Sox 139 Focus 7X's
Mariners 113
Padres 102
Have you ever calculated what all the 130+ dogs would net (up until you start flipping), to compared with the algorithm?
Quote: gamerfreakHave you ever calculated what all the 130+ dogs would net (up until you start flipping), to compared with the algorithm?
I assume you mean to include all 130+ dogs whether they were picked by the algorithm or not? If so, I have not done that. If I have some time I'll see if I can.
Quote: steeldcoI assume you mean to include all 130+ dogs whether they were picked by the algorithm or not? If so, I have not done that. If I have some time I'll see if I can.
Right, I am wondering much more accurate the algorithms 130+ dog picks are compared to betting all 130+ dogs.
I have no intuitition either way, I am just curious and do not have baseball data in front of me to check.
7x makes sense maybe if 1x is only 1% of your bankroll. But if you end up above 40% on your +130 dogs you wish you kept the unit size up. Maybe scale more from 2x to 5x; 7x or 1x seems extreme.
>
"What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. "
If you played all +130 dogs for the entire season you'd lose. There has never been a season where that would have worked well. Typically the dogs do better early since presumed bad teams often up being good. But by AllStar break Vegas normally knows the true talent of the squads and the +130 dogs don't hit much more often then 35%. When teams like the Cubs struggle out of the gate one can make a few bones picking the dogs that have beat them. That won't last though.
Quote: bazooookagamer,
If you played all +130 dogs for the entire season you'd lose. There has never been a season where that would have worked well. Typically the dogs do better early since presumed bad teams often up being good. But by AllStar break Vegas normally knows the true talent of the squads and the +130 dogs don't hit much more often then 35%. When teams like the Cubs struggle out of the gate one can make a few bones picking the dogs that have beat them. That won't last though.
I figured 130+ alone were not a winning strategy, but it seems like a decent subset to make picks from, so I'm just curious how much of a difference from baseline the algorithm is making for early season 130 dogs.
Just like you brought in your 7x dogs plays into April (since that was their sweet spot) maybe these Focus picks might not really pick up until Summer as their sweet spot.
Right now they seem to be good contra-indicator or fade material (and the same fade logic applies to the +130s dogs later on this Summer when maybe the other side of the ledger will be worth of extra units bets).
Braves -100
Mets -987
White Sox -700
Mariners -100
Padres +102
Yesterday's results: -1,785
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -98
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,687
YTD Total -2,342
+130dogs +5,873
Other dogs -398
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -6,891
Quote: bazooookaSteel, Why make the change then? Your 7x +130 picks have done well. Unless a back-test showed you something over a large sample (i.e. don't go with Lefty in a night game etc) then why bounce your units around. If there is an edge in the +130 dogs it does make sense to bet them bigger.
7x makes sense maybe if 1x is only 1% of your bankroll. But if you end up above 40% on your +130 dogs you wish you kept the unit size up. Maybe scale more from 2x to 5x; 7x or 1x seems extreme.
>
"What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. "
bazooooka, I appreciate the feedback. What you state isn't necessarily incorrect or untrue. The flip side is that the new daily indicator has really not been wrong yet and since my only downside over a short period of time is that I gain less, I choose to give it a shot. Generally, I am always on the look out for improvement. I'm not a believer in necessarily leaving well enough alone.
Quote: bazooookaSteel, What's the logic behind the 7x Focus picks. Are these presumed teams that are better then betting public thinks? If so these may also benefit from being played after April or May since there is so much noise in early season results. For example, SF Giants are a decent team that I wouldn't touch until later in the year Mets are similar.
Just like you brought in your 7x dogs plays into April (since that was their sweet spot) maybe these Focus picks might not really pick up until Summer as their sweet spot.
Right now they seem to be good contra-indicator or fade material (and the same fade logic applies to the +130s dogs later on this Summer when maybe the other side of the ledger will be worth of extra units bets).
The Focus picks sprouted from an effort to find a way to pick favorites. It evolved a bit from that. I am now going to re-look at these this weekend since they have started out so badly.
Rays 110
Braves 104
Brewers 110
Diamondbacks 103
Giants 102
Blue Jays 145 +130Dogs 1X's
Quote: steeldcoThe Focus picks sprouted from an effort to find a way to pick favorites. It evolved a bit from that. I am now going to re-look at these this weekend since they have started out so badly.
An initial look shows that I started the Focus Picks in 2014. They have won each year (2014 doesn't show as a net win because of my lousy money management then in raising the wager size at incorrect times). Except for this year so far. They are hitting at a horrendous 29.63% win rate this year and have been a tremendous drag on total profitability. So far this year they have only been in the black for a grand total of 1 day. Changes may be in store for this group unless it starts turning around.
How long have you been betting for? Are you up lifetime in MLB? Or maybe just past 3-5 years? Also what Sports have treated you well (and not so well). You seem like you've been in this betting game for a minute or two =)
Quote: bazooookaSteel,
How long have you been betting for? Are you up lifetime in MLB? Or maybe just past 3-5 years? Also what Sports have treated you well (and not so well). You seem like you've been in this betting game for a minute or two =)
I've admitted in the past that I'm pretty much as old as dirt and have always been a risk taker. Losses piled up early since I didn't devote the time and research necessary to do this properly with a hope of success. Didn't have a clue actually. It was all subjective early on and I'm too much of a dumb ass to pick on that basis. The introduction of PCs, and development of software, helped a whole bunch since now you can work with large amounts of data without needing to employee dozens of people to do it. How well I have done, or not done, is pretty much posted here. MLB has treated me the best. NFL has been mediocre. NBA has absolutely sucked, although I see a little light at the end of the tunnel in the NBA as this year ended. I took a whack at trying to predict horse race results and failed miserably at that.
Yesterday's Results:
Rays +110
Braves -100
Brewers -100
Diamondbacks +103
Giants -100
Blue Jays -100
Yesterday's results: -187
+130dogs -100
Other dogs -87
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total -2,529
+130dogs +5,773
Other dogs -485
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -6,891
Today's Picks:
Cubs -165
Astros -109
Phillies 106
Yankees 103
Brewers 104
Tigers 109
Rockies 101
Diamondbacks 122
Padres 101
Mets 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Quote: steeldcoThe minimal number of +130dog picks lately is really weird.
Today's Picks:
Cubs -165
Astros -109
Phillies 106
Yankees 103
Brewers 104
Tigers 109
Rockies 101
Diamondbacks 122
Padres 101
Mets 135 +130Dogs 7X's
Not really as it just means more people are betting on MLB therefore changing the price of underdogs fro the 130and above range. I found the same thing here in Australia ten years ago you got limited choice of overseas matches to bet on but the spread between favourites and underdog was huge. Favs would be $1:20 and underdogs $2:90 +...... then not a lot of betting activity here ...now a lot of people have access to oseas betting sites, prices drop and now multiple betting has lowered the price range even more as more people use that format to bet. It may mean that your tag of +130 dogs need to change and now the range is more like the+ 110 dogs as an example. Price refers to number of people already betting on that team etc. as a by and by here in Australia odds of your+130 dogs should transfer as 2:60 here but most often the price I get is 1:95-2:60 . So here we already get a different price but it is still lucrative when multi betting at this point in time.
I used to do a lot of horse racing and made good money but the betting agencies here allowed flexy betting ie %units on trifecta and it made many bets that would win and it diluted the betting pool. So now not so good. Hopefully don't happen in MLB or NFL. The price structure on nrl in Australia has become very slim in last few years as more people bet on multiple legs etc. still money can be made. Thanks have fun.
%Quote: beachmonkeyI will get a screen shot from local betting site next time I can to show price different between there and here. One other thing that may be of consideration is this statement I've heard many times over the years. The price is wrong for my selection therefore I not going to bet. Of course it usually wins then you hear the cry cry. Etc. My reply is most often if the selection has qualified as per whatever the criteria was then it should be bet on what ever the price Examples +130 dog is now +120 bet as per selection. As already stated sometimes your underdogs here in Australia is only $0:05 cents different from favourites ie $1:85vs $1:90 . But it goes in my selection as per your tips. But I do need to state I bet for long term and not for immediate win result daily. Would be nice etc but facts are facts. Thanks
I'd have to disagree as I think the price is the reason for a selection. You are betting because you think the price being offered has long term value. If you estimate that team "A" should win this match up 50% of the time and the price is +105 you should bet it, however if the price moves to -105 it is no longer profitable and therefore no longer a bet. Line shopping is paramount in sports betting. Back in the day when I was really into it I had 36 different offshore sports books funded and 6 local bookies I could use. I made sure I always got the best price. That being said obviously you will have times when the price moves a few cents and it is still profitable just less so. This happens often and is annoying when you missed out on a better price, but if it's still in the range of profitability you should bet it.
Hey beachmonkey I wanna go to the beach!!! Do you have an extra towel? Also would definitely like to see the screenshot of the Australia bookmakers.
But most important things however you bet/select always stick to your rules. Have fun will post a screen shot tonight if I'm able to catch steeldco selection before I go to bed. It's usually after midnight when I get the selection. Cheers.
But most important things however you bet/select always stick to your rules. Have fun will post a screen shot tonight if I'm able to catch steeldco selection before I go to bed. It's usually after midnight when I get the selection. Cheers.
Baltimore $2:00 Tampabay $1:80.
Pittsburgh $2:00 Chicago cubs $1:80.
Milwaukee $1:95 Cincinnati $1:87.
Texas 1:75 Minnesota 2:10
White sox 1:95 kanas 1:87
Arizona 1:55 San Diego 2:45
Angles 1:80 Toronto 2:05
San Francisco 2:25 Dodgers 1:65.
When my tech guru awakens in morning I'll see if the 12 yr old can sort it for me. Should not be a problem. Ha ha
Hope above helps in mean time.
Cubs -165
Astros +100
Phillies +106
Yankees -100
Brewers -100
Tigers +109
Rockies +101
Diamondbacks -100
Padres -100
Mets -700
Yesterday's results: -849
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -84
Favorites -65
Focus Picks 0
YTD Total -3,378
+130dogs +5,073
Other dogs -569
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -6,891
Pirates 108
Orioles 108 Focus 7X's
Blue Jays 119
Pirates -100
Orioles +756
Blue Jays -100
Yesterday's results: +556
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -200
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +756
YTD Total -2,822
+130dogs +5,073
Other dogs -769
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -6,135
Indians 113
Pirates 127
Orioles -157 Focus 7X's
Yankees 113
Tigers 120
Reds 105
White Sox 129
Rockies 104
Padres 138 +130Dogs 7X's
Tigers +120
Reds -100
White Sox +129
Rockies -100
Padres -700
Yesterday's results: -1,950
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -151
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,099
YTD Total -4,772
+130dogs +4,373
Other dogs -920
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -7,234