2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders

Yes, it is that time. I hope this thread will mostly involve information, opinions, and discussion contributed by others not known to be DrawingDead.

While fixed odds future wagers have been available from some Las Vegas venues for a while, Pool #1 of Churchill Downs' parimutual Kentucky Derby future wager has been open for a couple of days, and will remain open for wagering until tomorrow (Sunday - 11/27) at 6PM ET (3 PM Pacific). With this parimutual wager one should expect the odds to be primarily determined by a late flow of money into the pool in the final hour before it closes.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-1

Two juvenile stakes races today with potential significance for this are the Remsen at Aqueduct (race #8 @3:20PM ET) and the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill (race #11 @5:56PM ET). But Churchill has conjured up a day long thunderstorm of juveniles again this year, with an entire card comprised exclusively of races for 2 year olds.

I am mostly interested in a Kiaran McLaughlin's colt Takaful (by Bernardini - out of a Distorted Humor mare) making only his second start in the Remsen, and a Steve Asmussen colt in a maiden race on the undercard at Churchill also making making his 2nd lifetime start. I thought I was clever getting on board with Takaful before his first-out maiden breaking win and could keep feeling that way for a while longer. But then the Remsen entries came out. While making his first try at a route, doing so in stakes company, with a sprint win in a maiden race being his only experience ever leaving the barn to go to the track in the afternoon to compete with others, he's listed at 7:5 in the morning line for today's race. Which usually means a horse will go to post at something near even money at AQU. Harrumph. This is not the kind of circumstance where I want to take a heavy (under 2:1) favorite, especially in a full field of ten volatile two year olds.

My AWD calculations for some of the Remsen entries: Hookup 7.3f, Takaful 7.4f, Mo Town 7.1f, No Dozing 7.3f. And in the KJC: Wild Shot 7.3f, Just Move On 7.0, McCraken 7.2f, Uncontested 6.8f.

EDIT: And neither of the two that I mentioned I was most interested in seeing today won their race, while both did 'hit the board' in the money.

McCracken.

this would go under gambling not handicapping

There's a horse named beach bum. What are the odds? Might be a sentimental favorite.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

There's a horse named beach bum. What are the odds? Might be a sentimental favorite.

Awwww....probably some old nag. ;-)

Quote: beachbumbabs

Awwww....probably some old nag. ;-)

Lmao. You wait until Ol Beach Bum has his baby with Shacklefords Lady, then what name will it be. Shackelfords Beach I'm guessing.

El Areeb is either a dark horse or a dead duck. They say he's racing in NY in weak competition.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/2017_Kentucky_Derby_El_Areeb_Pedigree_Profile_123#

I'm almost sold by TVGs young host who speculates "speed on top, stamina on bottom". Reading the link above seeing his dimensions are very similar to his father's and learning his father was very much the same fading in distance, it's discouraging. Young host did mention horses like American Pharoah have been stamina on top from male side and speed on bottom from mare side. Superficially seems like bad news coming. That's why the experts aren't putting him on their lists yet until they see him perform distance. He wont race before the next betting round pool 3.

They're saying good things about Gunnerva. Same young host predicts today he'll be a good superfecta pick in the derby.

Classic Empire, everyone will be watching derby day for him acting up. Possible he might repeat the antics before the derby and win anyways confusing the issue. Irish War Cry definitely moved up in value beating him. You'll have to keep an eye on him.

Quote: ontariodealer

this would go under gambling not handicapping

I've been trying to explain to my other half for years that when I play the horses I'm not gambling. I've also described it as investing in a different kind of stock and speculating. I've compared it to running a small business. She hasn't been real impressed with my explanations.

Forgot to play Gunnevera yesterday and in the last derby pool. He might be the one. We'll see. Heard some chatter about Lliad, but nothing for a while.

Here is the DRF's Mike Watchmaker's list of top 10 three year old colts.


1 – Classic Empire,
by Pioneerof the Nile
Resumes training again this week, so he'll stay here
2 – McCraken,
by Ghostzapper
And he's already back training, so he holds his spot
3 – Mastery,
by Candy Ride
Has had easy trips, but still think he's very good
4 – Gunnevera (10),
by Dialed In
Got ideal set up in Fountain of Youth, but romped

5- Gormley (6),
by Malibu Moon
.......................................... ................................. 8- Practical Joke (5),
by Into Mischief
6- American Anthem (7),
by Bodemeister......................................... 9- Irish War Cry (4),
by Curlin
7- One Liner (8),
by Into Mischief ....................................... 10- J Boys Echo (new),
by Mineshaft

Surprising Classic Empire is still number one. Watchmaker is to be listened perhaps. One bad race, horse wasn't feeling well, that makes sense.

I mentioned lliad before, but think it is Iliad in fact by equibase.

No stand out this year yet. No horse is the clear winner Im saying.

Mastery beat Iliad and Gormley, but suffers a fracture. Needs surgery, off the derby trail.

McCraken is a powerful closer who is undefeated and was stepped up to a minor stakes immediately after his maiden win. He set the track record for Tampa Bay last race for 8.5 furlongs despite being wide. His sire is the legendary Ghostzapper. He could be for real although his deep closing style could be problematic; getting blocked and/or forced wide. Ghostzapper is one of very few horses who ever really impressed Andrew Beyer. McCraken is aiming for the Bluegrass Stakes on April 8. If he's not something ridiculous like 2/5 I'm pretty sure I'm going to be all over McCraken in the Bluegrass. Like white on rice. I'll take the risk on him getting blocked.

Tapwrit just won the Tampa Bay Derby and broke McCraken's track record set just one month ago. He finished 2nd to McCraken in the Sam Davis. He's no. 2 now in the KY Derby standings. Here are the complete DRF point standings of Derby hopefuls as of 3/13. Gunnevera is #1. Unique Bella, the superstar filly is headed to the Oaks and their likely won't be a filly in the Derby this year. Since the Derby falls this year on May 6 all of the entries will have an extra few days to recover compared to what they normally have.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2017-point-standings

Here are the upcoming Derby Prep Races:

Rebel: Oaklawn Park Mar 18, 2017 50-20-10-5
UAE Derby Meydan Racecourse Mar 25, 2017 100-40-20-10
Spiral Turfway Park Mar 25, 2017 50-20-10-5
Sunland Derby Sunland Park Mar 26, 2017 50-20-10-5
Florida Derby Gulfstream Park Apr 1, 2017 100-40-20-10
Louisiana Derby Fair Grounds Apr 1, 2017 100-40-20-10
Wood Memorial Aqueduct Apr 8, 2017 100-40-20-10
Blue Grass Keeneland Apr 8, 2017 100-40-20-10
Santa Anita Derby Santa Anita Park Apr 8, 2017 100-40-20-10
Arkansas Derby Oaklawn Park Apr 15, 2017 100-40-20-10
Lexington Keeneland Apr 15, 2017 10-4-2-1

I have a couple of KD futures horses in the Rebel Stakes @ Oaklawn tomorrow (Race #10 ~7:06pm ET). Free pps:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20170318&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=10#past-performance-race/10
Both horses are the high-weights for the event (122lbs). I am hoping Royal Mo performs well. He has done little wrong but has also done nothing spectacular. He has a tough post (#10) for this event. Now is the time to prove he belongs in the Derby gate. I expect he will relax early and close late.
Uncontested (#2) is the other runner I am interested in. He reportedly had a breathing issue in his last for an excuse. He is the fastest 3yo colt I have seen so far this year. He may be more a sprint/miler type, but he will likely be out in front and is the one to catch.
glta

Thanks again for the PPs K. Malagacy stretching out also looks very interesting. Both past races on or near the lead with a fast pace and then drew away in the stretch. His race after maiden was only an allowance. American Anthem is yet another horse with speed which makes 4. Looks like it might be a set up for a closer.

Quote: lilredrooster

Thanks again for the PPs K. Malagacy stretching out also looks very interesting. Both past races on or near the lead with a fast pace and then drew away in the stretch. His race after maiden was only an allowance. American Anthem is yet another horse with speed which makes 4. Looks like it might be a set up for a closer.

Malagacy was the one in the Rebel.

What is the opposite of "winner, winner, chicken dinner"? Losing day for me and a terrible race for my charges. I hope Royal Mo returns to California and runs better in the Santa Anita Derby if they enter him. With Mastery out, his handlers may take a shot in the race. Uncontested wants/needs less distance IMO. He is lightning fast, but it seems time to move on to shorter distance (1mile or less) Stakes races.

This is not about KY future betting but I didn't want to start another thread. Arrogate just won the Dubai World Classic at 1/9 coming back from dead last after breaking very poorly. The race caller referred to him as "the Man o' War of the 21st Century." 1/9 in field of 14 of the greatest racehorses in the world. His stretch run was electrifying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChoW7QAHfKA

All the faves were beaten yesterday in the big preps. McCraken and Tapwrit were beaten badly by Irap, a 30-1 shot in the Blue Grass who had lost all of his previous 7 races. It looks like the Derby will be wide open and whoever is the fave will probably go off at high odds, maybe 4/1 or something like that.

The Santa Anita Derby was painfully, grass growing, paint drying, slower than slow. As opposed to the Wood and the Bluegrass, which were merely slow. The contestants will need significant improvement over the next four weeks to achieve mediocrity.

I was in LA this weekend. The weather was nice, and the main track surface in Arcadia was not cuppy or dull.

Only ~ 3 weeks left until the Derby...
2 preps left to run tomorrow. Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes.
Arkansas Derby pps:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20170415&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11
I am sticking with Untrapped in this one. Mike Smith jumps aboard for this race. Untrapped has done little wrong, but he has yet to really put up a big performance. The addition of blinkers for his 6th start is an interesting change. Malagacy's outside post (#12), possible distance limitations, and low odds make him a pass in this event for me (and the Derby for that matter). Classic Empire has the class but is questionable at this point (poor 2017 debut, month+ break in training). I also have a small interest in Lookin At Lee earning enough points to make the Derby field.
The Lexington Stakes will not produce a Derby runner this year but is a possible prep for the Preakness...GLTA

Classic Empire should win in class alone. Won 2 G1 races last year. Needed his first start this year. No horse here has ever won a Grade 3. Yes, there is a grade 2 winner. The Rebel. the horse who finished second is a 9 race maiden, 7 of those races MSW.
Untrapped was 3rd in that race, with no excuse.

Quote: ronnief

Classic Empire should win in class alone. Won 2 G1 races last year. Needed his first start this year. No horse here has ever won a Grade 3. Yes, there is a grade 2 winner. The Rebel. the horse who finished second is a 9 race maiden, 7 of those races MSW.
Untrapped was 3rd in that race, with no excuse.

Classic Empire is the buzz horse for the Ark Derby...


"Untrapped was 3rd in that race, with no excuse."
FWIW, owner/trainer claimed the 3 weeks between Fairgrounds Risen Star and Oaklawn Rebel left Untrapped a little short.

I have not verified this myself, but have heard Classic Empire looks thin. Today I was going to bet $20 on Ever So Clever, but decided to not bet it so much, only bet $2 and won $33.60. Ouch I guess, but got something.

This article swayed me to take a chance after the favorites were nowhere last week.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

I have not verified this myself, but have heard Classic Empire looks thin. Today I was going to bet $20 on Ever So Clever, but decided to not bet it so much, only bet $2 and won $33.60. Ouch I guess, but got something.

This article swayed me to take a chance after the favorites were nowhere last week.

Congrats on the win. Last to first win collaring the front runner late. Her Fantasy running line looks like most of Lookin At Lee's past running lines. I certainly hope Steve A. pulls off a 3yo Oaklawn feature double.

The Arkansas derby, I can't make my mind up, but am ignoring Classic Empire and Malagacy until new evidence comes to light. Thinking of Petrov, maybe Sonneteer, not sure, my decision is going around in circles with many. Will have to do some more reading, maybe see what I see on TVG. Haven't been watching much the last few weeks, months really.

I don't like the short odds or post position 12 for Malagacy. but I have to respect a horse who has done everything he's been asked in every race. jocks and trainers like horses fairly close to the lead in the early stages of a race and he's been there. they love horses that focus and draw clear in the stretch and he's done that every time. he could be the monster the derby field seems to be lacking so far. it will be very interesting. Sonneteer made a tremendous rally to go from 10th to 2nd in the Rebel but he didn't gain an inch on Malagacy in the stretch.

Thing about Sonneteer, it was mentioned he found a hole and came through. Translation, luck had a lot to do with the outcome. The race won't be the same surely, everyone changes the plan based on the previous race. I think I'm sold on Untrapped now rereading this thread, will make a$20 win bet unless my mind gets changed.

Mike Smith on Untrapped for 1st time looks interesting, but I'd be very surprised if Classic Empire has any problems winning the Arkansas Derby. Those two workouts that were 59 and change, were from the gate.

All of Classic Empire's wins were as a 2 year old. He was dull in his one race as a 3 year old. He may not have improved while others have. He's also coming off of an injury that caused him to balk in workouts when he first was put back in training.

I made a $20 win bet on Sonneteer. Needs a top 3 finish to make the derby I figured and doesn't need to save anything. I won't be too surprised no matter who wins. Still a maiden, but what the hell. I might have made a big sucker bet, doesn't bother me(now).

Congrats to those who went with the classiest runner in the field - Classic Empire. That was the best performance I have seen this year and he may earn the highest numbers for that performance**. Not many excuses for the others. Sonneteer and Lookin At Lee got the pace set up they needed. Untrapped and Malagacy pressed and faded some down the stretch. Conquest Mo Money ran great but will need $200k supplement to run in the Derby.

Right now I only have one futures bet runner with the points to run on May 6th. 4 others are on the bubble.

**edit to add
Shortly after the race I was told the final time was 1:48 flat (which would have been faster than the Oaklawn Handicap). The final time is listed @ 1:48.93. My comment is likely hyperbole at this point.

Quote: Keeneone

Shortly after the race I was told the final time was 1:48 flat (which would have been faster than the Oaklawn Handicap). The final time is listed @ 1:48.93. My comment is likely hyperbole at this point.

It might have been 1:48 flat if he got a better trip. I should have said, no problems except getting stuck behind 3 horses, and having to swing out to the grandstands to get around them to win :)

Obviously I was wrong about Classic Empire. At the risk of being wrong again I will note that he's been either a closer or stalker in all of his races. At his longest distance yet in the Derby at 1.25 miles he is likely to be around the middle of the pack. And with 20 horses in a field it is a very tough race for a closer.

Quote: JyBrd0403

Mike Smith on Untrapped for 1st time looks interesting, but I'd be very surprised if Classic Empire has any problems winning the Arkansas Derby. Those two workouts that were 59 and change, were from the gate.

I really wanted to change my bet seeing this, but I didn't for a dumb reason, I had phone difficulties and it would take two phones to make my bet and didn't want to go through that again. I was realizing it was probably a rumor Classic Empire lost weight, I never tried confirming it and should have. The favorites doing so terrible lately and I was hesitant.

Quote: JyBrd0403

...Those two workouts that were 59 and change, were from the gate.

Congrats on the result, but a general note about gate works: I suggest caution 'bout that; use it in context of the pattern of that specific trainer & horse. Gate works will often tend to produce faster times than the clockings you'll get at the distance for normal workouts for similar stock under the same conditions. This is probably the opposite of what most people would expect, including many who've followed the game for a long time, even among some who write about it for a living. But they do.

Quote: DrawingDead

Congrats on the result, but a general note about gate works: I suggest caution 'bout that; use it in context of the pattern of that specific trainer & horse. Gate works will often tend to produce faster times than the clockings you'll get at the distance for normal workouts for similar stock under the same conditions. This is probably the opposite of what most people would expect, including many who've followed the game for a long time, even among some who write about it for a living. But they do.

Thanks for the Conrats, DD. About the gate works, my understanding of gate works, is (as you predicted) exactly the opposite of yours.

When they clock a horse they run him out for a while before the jockey gives him the go. The horse is already running (has momentum) before the official clock is started.

Gate works, on the other hand, the horse is standing still when the clock is started, usually producing a slower time, generally 1 second slower than a normal work. The horse has no momentum going when the clock is started.

That's my understanding. So, when I see 59.3 and see that little g, my eyes light up. I don't mind doing my homework on a horse, that can put up some numbers like that.




I do have a question, though. Why dismiss times so much? A fast horse with a bad jockey, and bad connections, might still win, a slow mule with a great jockey, and the best connections, still ain't gonna win.

The field is not quite set, jockeys/owner/trainers need to choose mounts, post positions need to be drawn etc,etc. But here is an early look at some past performances for those interested (pdf):

http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf

Quote: JyBrd0403

That's my understanding. So, when I see 59.3 and see that little g, my eyes light up. I don't mind doing my homework on a horse, that can put up some numbers like that.I do have a question, though. Why dismiss times so much? A fast horse with a bad jockey, and bad connections, might still win, a slow mule with a great jockey, and the best connections, still ain't gonna win.

There is surely some value as you say in a fast workout. There are a great no. of horses who can match 59.3 from the gate including claimers. An awful lot of speed horses are cheap speed. They fade as soon as a rival starts breathing down their neck. But Classic Empire is surely not in that category and you were right in calling him a winner so congrats on that.

I don't want to dismiss workout times at all.I do want to evaluate them in context. Training methods vary.The time will mean something very different coming from the Baffert barn than the identical time from a Shug McGaughey colt. A Baffert trainee had damn well better be spitting bullets before breakfast, or something is wrong. Ho-hum, today is Tuesday, and it still ends in the letter "y." But a young developing McGaughey colt who does the same thing will make me stop and say "Wud-Da-Holy-Fork!!!"

There was a trainer on the SoCal circuit in about the 1990s (IIRC) who always had one work at the unusual distance of 7 furlongs about ten days before debuting a maiden, and a bunch of others. The bunch of others meant diddly-squat for predictive value. But when that obscure 7f time was over 1:26 they were nowhere near getting their picture taken in the afternoon, but when near or sub 1:25 I could back up the truck at the window and watch them win by open lengths. Always. Every time. And his stock putting up a spectacular 7f morning time like 1:24³ or something wouldn't have a "bullet" in the Form drawing attention to them, because of that eccentric distance. So they paid. He died suddenly while still quite young, and I'm sure those close to him were almost as saddened by that tragedy as I was.

I'm aware of how they're clocked (as well as some inconsistencies in that - and even deliberate monkey bidness among some clockers at some tracks). My observation on gate works often (not always) producing faster times at a given distance from the same animal is strictly empirical, what I've observed from thousands of them over a 43 year period. If you're sure you observe something different, fine, go with that.

I don't know the reason for the possibly counter-intuitive result of the works I've tracked, only some theories. My foremost pet theory, among others that may be at play, is somewhat similar to the difference that occurs when working in company; breaking out of the gate may induce something closer to max effort than 'breaking off" from a warm up in response to the rider's urging to "pick it up now." But that's nothing more than one pet theory. I don't have a why. But I've seen it too many times. In any case, gate works are a different thing, whether one sees them as naturally tending to be faster or slower, and they tend to be used to accomplish a different purpose. So in general, I prefer comparing gate works to gate works, as their own thing, considering their meaning first for what they may tell me about trainer intent (obviously not speaking of this horse in this race where that was not at issue), and fitness (I think much more relevant here for this horse in this race at this moment) as opposed to a barometer of speed, and competence at breaking effectively in response to the startling fright-inducing stimuli of the gate. That last is no small thing for young thoroughbreds, of course.

I see that yesterday at Santa Anita there were 18 regular works and 2 gate works that were recorded as three furlong workouts. The two 3f gate works produced times that were faster than all of the others, and also a full second faster than the quickest recorded work that was not from the gate. There were 68 that were judged (it is often a clocker's judgement call) to be four furlong works, including two from the gate. The 4f gate works were not the fastest of the day, but both were in the top 30% at the distance yesterday. There were no gate works on 4/17 at any distance that were below average or median time, or even near it; all were timed among quickest 1/3 of SA works. All of which proves absolutely nothing, being a little snapshot that amounts to no more than an anecdote. Each of us will consider it through the prism of our own experience and accumulated information, as we should.

Thanks for the interesting discussion about gate works. When JyBrd0403 first mentioned CE's in the thread my first thought was not about the times. It was, why is a multiple graded stakes winning 2 year old champion with 7 career starts working twice from the gate? Combined with other information about CE's mental state it was a warning sign to me. But my capping instincts where obviously very wrong in the Ark Derby.
----------

Other Derby news:
Cloud Computing is still a question mark to run.
Conquest Mo Money is not going to enter the Derby. His owners will not pay the $200k Triple Crown supplement. He may run in the Preakness.

Somewhat off-topic side note:

Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>...

There was a trainer on the SoCal circuit in about the 1990s (IIRC) who always had one work at the unusual distance of 7 furlongs about ten days before debuting a maiden, and a bunch of others. The bunch of others meant diddly-squat for predictive value. But when that obscure 7f time was over 1:26 they were nowhere near getting their picture taken in the afternoon, but when near or sub 1:25 I could back up the truck at the window and watch them win by open lengths. Always. Every time. And his stock putting up a spectacular 7f morning time like 1:24³ or something wouldn't have a "bullet" in the Form drawing attention to them, because of that eccentric distance. So they paid. He died suddenly while still quite young, and I'm sure those close to him were almost as saddened by that tragedy as I was.

...<SNIP>...

While posting that I was wracking my poor little brain as my feeble mind inexplicably drew a blank on recalling his name. Shame on me. Till now. He was Rodney Rash, rest his soul.

Link to concise Wikipedia biographical entry on his sadly brief career and life: Rodney Rash - Horse Trainer

I know you guys know all this stuff already. Like you say, DD, we all just look from a different prism.

I'm more of a time guy, which gets ridiculed alot among handicappers. I figure we just don't use the time info the same way. I always look at times in context, but I always look at times first. Always Dreaming for instance, throws up a 1.47.47 at Florida Derby, and all of the sudden I'm real interested in this horse. All his other times look terrible, but they all have excuses. Still have questions that need to be answered, but all the sudden Always Dreaming's is on my radar. I missed the Florida Derby, but he's definitely on my list now.

The big difference, I think, is that I will dismiss alot of horses that win big races and have great connections, because they can't throw up a decent number. Sometimes that's to my detriment, but alot of times, they are just not fast enough. They are well trained, well disciplined, nice race horses that just can't run all that fast. In context, a horse who runs top speed 1.42.6, is just too slow to beat a horse who's top speed is 1.42.00.

As, LilRedRooster pointed out, there's probably alot of horses that can run 5 furlongs in 59.3, but in context of a Breezing gate workout, that gets rave reviews from the trainer, IMO not so much. If a claimer Breezes that fast, I think the trainer would be very upset with the jockey for running him that fast, not that the horse couldn't put up that number, but he would have to push alot harder to do it. And that doesn't make for a good work.

I do think alot of gate works are blowouts, so that may help explain the faster times. But, as you know, there are so many different types of workouts, that I don't really compare workout times with other horses, just the particular horses past workout history. Trainer patterns, habits, etc. In the case of Classic Empire, it seemed they wanted to make sure he was over that injury, so they blew him out a couple of times(and...wow), then just an easy breeze before going to Arkansas. It made sense to me. Also, I guess I haven't mentioned it, but when I see 59.3 Bg, It gets translated to 58.3 B in my mind. I subtract the second for the gate.

Anyway, I'm sure we could all write 50 pages worth about how we analyze a race. I just seem to place a higher importance on times, then most. That's just the way my prism works.

to be honest, i haven't got a clue about this derby. it will be very interesting to see if you guys have a strong opinion. whatever i may know about handicapping it doesn't seem to be helping me at all with this field. the only think i could thing of worth doing is grabbing a fistful of shots and that has limited worth. i think i'd be better off in a casino playing the big wheel with a rabbits foot in my pocket wearing my lucky leprechaun sweater and rubbing a statue of the buddha's belly while the wheel is in motion.

Quote: lilredrooster

to be honest, i haven't got a clue about this derby. it will be very interesting to see if you guys have a strong opinion. whatever i may know about handicapping it doesn't seem to be helping me at all with this field. the only think i could thing of worth doing is grabbing a fistful of shots and that has limited worth. i think i'd be better off in a casino playing the big wheel with a rabbits foot in my pocket wearing my lucky leprechaun sweater and rubbing a statue of the buddha's belly while the wheel is in motion.

Wide open Derby...

The Rodney Rash hunch play: Rash's last winner was Celtic Arms (FR) with Mike Smith riding.

Girvin (Mike Smith riding) on top with these underneath

Irish War Cry (celtic link)
McCracken (celtic link)
Thunder Snow (IRE) (celtic link)

GLTA

I'm off the McCracken bandwagon.

My picks are:

Gunnervera
Irish War Cry
Girvin

If I had to put a 4th in a super, Thunder Snow

The field is slowly coming into shape. Cloud Computing, Malagacy, and Battalion Runner are passing on the Derby. Untrapped, Lookin At Lee, and Sonneteer have moved into the Top 20. Royal Mo is now @ #21. Girvin missed his last work with a hoof (quarter crack) problem, but he did work today @ Keeneland and all went well. Apparently, Thunder Snow is still coming from overseas soon.

One more week...