2016 2017 NBA Money Line Picks
November 30th, 2016 at 7:03:43 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Bucks +250
YTD
Favorites -185
Underdogs -552
Total -737
Bucks +250
YTD
Favorites -185
Underdogs -552
Total -737
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 30th, 2016 at 7:11:34 AM
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Today's Picks:
Kings laying -200 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 600
Heat laying 100 to win 200
Pacers laying 100 to win 270
Kings laying -200 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 600
Heat laying 100 to win 200
Pacers laying 100 to win 270
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 30th, 2016 at 1:35:03 PM
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Steel, have you tried modeling/playing these underdog type picks ATS and/or with teasers? I assume you're system is picking up dogs who have a better than implied odds. Thus wouldn't in reason some of the games will be close even if they aren't moneyline winners?
November 30th, 2016 at 1:39:18 PM
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bazooooka, I have tried modeling picks ATS, but not teasers, without success. However, the current algorithm was not what was used back when I did try picking ATS. I have not tracked how the current model would work ATS.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
November 30th, 2016 at 5:37:57 PM
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I found cheap online books with 6 and 7 pt teasers and have done well by picking my spots. I like the Memphis pick tonight for points and ML. It actually went off at +900; I do think Memphis wins games like this more than 10% of the time even sans Conley.
November 30th, 2016 at 6:51:44 PM
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Quote: bazooookaI found cheap online books with 6 and 7 pt teasers and have done well by picking my spots. I like the Memphis pick tonight for points and ML. It actually went off at +900; I do think Memphis wins games like this more than 10% of the time even sans Conley.
The house edge on 7 pt teasers must be crazy.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
November 30th, 2016 at 7:03:02 PM
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5 and 6 pts are more common and you need to get them cheap and hit the 2 teamers about 75% time or more. I rarely do it since it's not a strategy that scales to volume bets. But can be good when you find an already inflated line and ask yourself will the Warriors (as an example) really be motivated to win this one by 24+ pts off of one day rest. Sometimes I leave the teaser open for a few weeks until I find another situation I like equally well. I've made money but it's a tiny sample size. It's not something I recommend but can be fun if you're already inclined toward such things.
November 30th, 2016 at 7:47:33 PM
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Bucks and others hit nicely. Google the below part to see what a rare Tuesday night it was.
/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/126796/how-the-upsets-happened-big-night-for-nba-underdogs
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A true long shot
One additional perspective on this combination of unlikely events: A $100 three-team parlay on the Magic, Nets and Bucks in Las Vegas would have paid $20,712.50.
Stat of the Day
The Elias Sports Bureau reports that this is the second time in NBA history that the team with the worse record won every game in the NBA in a given day (minimum 15 games into the season, at least six games played). The other instance was Jan. 7, 1969 (six games).
/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/126796/how-the-upsets-happened-big-night-for-nba-underdogs
>>
>>
A true long shot
One additional perspective on this combination of unlikely events: A $100 three-team parlay on the Magic, Nets and Bucks in Las Vegas would have paid $20,712.50.
Stat of the Day
The Elias Sports Bureau reports that this is the second time in NBA history that the team with the worse record won every game in the NBA in a given day (minimum 15 games into the season, at least six games played). The other instance was Jan. 7, 1969 (six games).
December 1st, 2016 at 6:16:26 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Grizzlies -100
Heat +200
Pacers -100
YTD
Favorites -185
Underdogs -552
Total -737
Grizzlies -100
Heat +200
Pacers -100
YTD
Favorites -185
Underdogs -552
Total -737
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 1st, 2016 at 6:25:05 AM
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Today's Picks:
Cavaliers laying -200 to win 100
Magic laying -123 to win 100
Rockets laying 100 to win 475
Cavaliers laying -200 to win 100
Magic laying -123 to win 100
Rockets laying 100 to win 475
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 2nd, 2016 at 8:58:46 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +152
Cavaliers -200
Magic -123
Rockets +475
YTD:
Favorites -508
Underdogs -77
Total -585
Cavaliers -200
Magic -123
Rockets +475
YTD:
Favorites -508
Underdogs -77
Total -585
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 2nd, 2016 at 9:08:49 AM
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Today's Picks:
Kings laying 100 to win 215
Knicks laying -118 to win 100
Pistons laying 100 to win 115
Wizards laying 100 to win 380
Kings laying 100 to win 215
Knicks laying -118 to win 100
Pistons laying 100 to win 115
Wizards laying 100 to win 380
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 3rd, 2016 at 7:51:34 AM
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Damn Wizards...........
Yesterday's Results: 0
Kings -100
Knicks 100
Pistons 100
Wizards -100
YTD
Favorites -408
Underdogs -177
Total -585
Yesterday's Results: 0
Kings -100
Knicks 100
Pistons 100
Wizards -100
YTD
Favorites -408
Underdogs -177
Total -585
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 3rd, 2016 at 10:01:54 AM
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Today's Picks:
Nets laying 100 to win 335
Hornets laying -250 to win 100
Raptors laying -450 to win 100
Celtics laying -475 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 140
Nuggets laying 100 to win 205
Trailblazers laying -265 to win 100
Suns laying 100 to win 1500
Nets laying 100 to win 335
Hornets laying -250 to win 100
Raptors laying -450 to win 100
Celtics laying -475 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 140
Nuggets laying 100 to win 205
Trailblazers laying -265 to win 100
Suns laying 100 to win 1500
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 4th, 2016 at 8:51:16 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -110
Nets -100
Hornets -250
Raptors +100
Celtics +100
Mavericks +140
Nuggets -100
Trailblazers +100
Suns -100
YTD
Favorites -358
Underdogs -337
Total -695
Nets -100
Hornets -250
Raptors +100
Celtics +100
Mavericks +140
Nuggets -100
Trailblazers +100
Suns -100
YTD
Favorites -358
Underdogs -337
Total -695
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 4th, 2016 at 9:40:15 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pelicans laying 100 to win 250
Kings laying 100 to win 110
Pacers laying 100 to win 625
Pelicans laying 100 to win 250
Kings laying 100 to win 110
Pacers laying 100 to win 625
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 5th, 2016 at 4:44:59 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +425
Pelicans -100
Kings -100
Pacers +625
YTD:
Favorites -358
Underdogs +88
Total -270
Pelicans -100
Kings -100
Pacers +625
YTD:
Favorites -358
Underdogs +88
Total -270
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 5th, 2016 at 8:50:06 AM
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Today's Picks:
Raptors laying -102 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 195
Bulls laying -190 to win 100
Spurs laying -245 to win 100
Rockets laying -220 to win 100
Hornets laying -185 to win 100
Raptors laying -102 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 195
Bulls laying -190 to win 100
Spurs laying -245 to win 100
Rockets laying -220 to win 100
Hornets laying -185 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 6th, 2016 at 5:18:06 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -92
Raptors -102
Nets -100
Bulls -190
Spurs +100
Rockets +100
Hornets +100
YTD:
Favorites -350
Underdogs -12
Total -362
Raptors -102
Nets -100
Bulls -190
Spurs +100
Rockets +100
Hornets +100
YTD:
Favorites -350
Underdogs -12
Total -362
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 6th, 2016 at 5:28:45 AM
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Today's Picks:
Suns +260
Suns +260
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 7th, 2016 at 8:35:39 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -100
Suns -100
YTD:
Favorites -350
Underdogs -112
Total -462
Suns -100
YTD:
Favorites -350
Underdogs -112
Total -462
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 7th, 2016 at 8:47:32 AM
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Today's Picks:
Hornets laying -220 to win 100
Celtics laying -140 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 165
Lakers laying 100 to win 800
Cavaliers laying -430 to win 100
Bucks laying -123 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 145
Clippers laying 100 to win 150
Hornets laying -220 to win 100
Celtics laying -140 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 165
Lakers laying 100 to win 800
Cavaliers laying -430 to win 100
Bucks laying -123 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 145
Clippers laying 100 to win 150
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 8th, 2016 at 5:36:45 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +265
Hornets +100
Celtics +100
Nets +165
Lakers -100
Cavaliers +100
Bucks +100
Mavericks -100
Clippers -100
YTD:
Favorites +50
Underdogs -247
Total -197
Hornets +100
Celtics +100
Nets +165
Lakers -100
Cavaliers +100
Bucks +100
Mavericks -100
Clippers -100
YTD:
Favorites +50
Underdogs -247
Total -197
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 8th, 2016 at 8:45:52 AM
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Today's Picks:
Timberwolves laying 100 to win 285
Jazz laying 100 to win 260
Bulls laying 100 to win 155
Timberwolves laying 100 to win 285
Jazz laying 100 to win 260
Bulls laying 100 to win 155
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 9th, 2016 at 5:39:22 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -45
Timberwolves -100
Jazz -100
Bulls +155
YTD:
Favorites +50
Underdogs -292
Total -242
Timberwolves -100
Jazz -100
Bulls +155
YTD:
Favorites +50
Underdogs -292
Total -242
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 9th, 2016 at 11:26:48 AM
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Today's Picks:
Cavaliers laying -750 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 165
Knicks laying 100 to win 170
Cavaliers laying -750 to win 100
Mavericks laying 100 to win 165
Knicks laying 100 to win 170
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 10th, 2016 at 6:52:34 AM
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Great day!
Yesterday's Results: +435
Cavaliers +100
Mavericks +165
Knicks +170
YTD:
Favorites +150
Underdogs +43
Total +193
Yesterday's Results: +435
Cavaliers +100
Mavericks +165
Knicks +170
YTD:
Favorites +150
Underdogs +43
Total +193
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 10th, 2016 at 8:05:46 AM
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Today's Picks:
Wizards laying -175 to win 100
Cavaliers laying -330 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 475
Nets laying 100 to win 1050
Jazz laying -290 to win 100
Wizards laying -175 to win 100
Cavaliers laying -330 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 475
Nets laying 100 to win 1050
Jazz laying -290 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 10th, 2016 at 8:14:22 AM
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Quote: steeldcoGreat day!
Yesterday's Results: +435
Cavaliers +100
Mavericks +165
Knicks +170
YTD:
Favorites +150
Underdogs +43
Total +193
YTD Total Investment 1,442
Gain 193
ROI 13.38%
Not too shabby so far. Hope it continues.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 11th, 2016 at 5:54:28 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +675
Wizards +100
Cavaliers +100
Grizzlies +475
Nets -100
Jazz +100
YTD:
Favorites +450
Underdogs +418
Total +868
ROI has now jumped to 60.19%
Wizards +100
Cavaliers +100
Grizzlies +475
Nets -100
Jazz +100
YTD:
Favorites +450
Underdogs +418
Total +868
ROI has now jumped to 60.19%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 11th, 2016 at 6:05:45 AM
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Today's Picks:
Celtics laying 100 to win 145
Suns laying -185 to win 100
Celtics laying 100 to win 145
Suns laying -185 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 11th, 2016 at 10:59:22 AM
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Starting to reel it in, steel! Keep up the good work.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 11th, 2016 at 11:29:57 AM
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Thanks! Seems to be starting to heat up.................
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 12th, 2016 at 3:09:02 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -285
Celtics -100
Suns -185
YTD:
Favorites +265
Underdogs +318
Total +583
Celtics -100
Suns -185
YTD:
Favorites +265
Underdogs +318
Total +583
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 12th, 2016 at 7:36:23 AM
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Today's Picks:
Hornets laying 100 to win 103
Bucks laying 100 to win 325
Wizards laying -115 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 850
Mavericks laying -105 to win 100
Kings laying -310 to win 100
Hornets laying 100 to win 103
Bucks laying 100 to win 325
Wizards laying -115 to win 100
Nets laying 100 to win 850
Mavericks laying -105 to win 100
Kings laying -310 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 13th, 2016 at 7:28:52 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -215
Hornets -100
Bucks -100
Wizards -115
Nets -100
Mavericks +100
Kings +100
YTD:
Favorites +350
Underdogs +18
Total +368
Hornets -100
Bucks -100
Wizards -115
Nets -100
Mavericks +100
Kings +100
YTD:
Favorites +350
Underdogs +18
Total +368
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 13th, 2016 at 7:32:22 AM
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Today's Picks:
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 1000
Hawks laying -310 to win 100
Bulls laying -320 to win 100
Warriors laying -600 to win 100
Suns laying 100 to win 128
Thunder laying -117 to win 100
Grizzlies laying 100 to win 1000
Hawks laying -310 to win 100
Bulls laying -320 to win 100
Warriors laying -600 to win 100
Suns laying 100 to win 128
Thunder laying -117 to win 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 13th, 2016 at 6:42:56 PM
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Seems to be good moneyline value on the Griz. I'd think you will make positive ROI on them while their stars are out this month. Do you track ROI and moneyline returns on a per team basis?
December 14th, 2016 at 3:04:12 AM
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No. I generally only track a return in total. I do have the records to determine it by team. Maybe I'll do so one of these weekends.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 14th, 2016 at 3:09:12 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -619
Grizzlies -100
Hawks -310
Bulls -320
Warriors +100
Suns +128
Thunder -117
YTD:
Favorites -297
Underdogs +46
Total -251
Grizzlies -100
Hawks -310
Bulls -320
Warriors +100
Suns +128
Thunder -117
YTD:
Favorites -297
Underdogs +46
Total -251
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 14th, 2016 at 3:32:46 PM
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Today's Picks:
Mavericks laying 100 to win 178
Celtics laying 100 to win 230
Mavericks laying 100 to win 178
Celtics laying 100 to win 230
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 15th, 2016 at 10:04:09 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -200
Mavericks -100
Celtics -100
YTD:
Favorites -297
Underdogs -154
Total -451
Mavericks -100
Celtics -100
YTD:
Favorites -297
Underdogs -154
Total -451
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 15th, 2016 at 10:32:15 AM
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Today's Picks;
Pacers laying 100 to win 125
Suns laying 100 to win 270
Nuggets laying -130 to win 100
Knicks laying 100 to win 925
Pacers laying 100 to win 125
Suns laying 100 to win 270
Nuggets laying -130 to win 100
Knicks laying 100 to win 925
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 15th, 2016 at 7:33:44 PM
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Steel, are these all picks where the model suggest the line is off by a certain percentage?
I'm not sure I believe the Knicks would beat the Warriors in Oakland more than 1 out of 10 time without Carmelo. But presumably if the computer suggests it - then you bet it - or do yo ever go against the model?
I'm not sure I believe the Knicks would beat the Warriors in Oakland more than 1 out of 10 time without Carmelo. But presumably if the computer suggests it - then you bet it - or do yo ever go against the model?
December 16th, 2016 at 5:50:01 AM
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The line of the game is not a variable within the algorithm. Simply put, I am trying to model picks that, based upon stats, have a higher probability of being able to beat the opposing team straight up. Picking the Knicks certainly is painful but under certain circumstances they have a higher probability, not a certainty, to be able to beat the Warriors. They didn't and certainly lately the picks have not done well. However, I hope it turns and in the meantime I hope to tweak the algorithm to improve the performance.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 16th, 2016 at 8:02:14 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -200
Pacers -100
Suns -100
Nuggets +100
Knicks -100
YTD:
Favorites -197
Underdogs -454
Total -651
Pacers -100
Suns -100
Nuggets +100
Knicks -100
YTD:
Favorites -197
Underdogs -454
Total -651
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 16th, 2016 at 8:09:46 AM
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Today's Picks:
Hawks laying 100 to win 270
Celtics laying -330 to win 100
76ers laying -123 to win 100
Heat laying 100 to win 255
Mavericks laying 100 to win 525
Hawks laying 100 to win 270
Celtics laying -330 to win 100
76ers laying -123 to win 100
Heat laying 100 to win 255
Mavericks laying 100 to win 525
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 17th, 2016 at 9:01:12 AM
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Yesterday's Results: +47
Hawks +270
Celtics +100
76ers -123
Heat -100
Mavericks -100
YTD:
Favorites -220
Underdogs -384
Total -604
Hawks +270
Celtics +100
76ers -123
Heat -100
Mavericks -100
YTD:
Favorites -220
Underdogs -384
Total -604
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 17th, 2016 at 9:40:50 AM
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Today's Picks:
Pacers laying 100 to win 158
Lakers laying 100 to win 1300
Hawks laying -125 to win 100
Timberwolves laying 100 to win 145
Knicks laying 100 to win 155
Trailblazers laying 100 to win 800
Pacers laying 100 to win 158
Lakers laying 100 to win 1300
Hawks laying -125 to win 100
Timberwolves laying 100 to win 145
Knicks laying 100 to win 155
Trailblazers laying 100 to win 800
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 18th, 2016 at 6:47:39 AM
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Yesterday's Results: -367
Pacers +158
Lakers -100
Hawks -125
Timberwolves -100
Knicks -100
Trailblazers -100
YTD:
Favorites -345
Underdogs -626
Total -971
Pacers +158
Lakers -100
Hawks -125
Timberwolves -100
Knicks -100
Trailblazers -100
YTD:
Favorites -345
Underdogs -626
Total -971
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
