Clemson @ Auburn - Week 1 Pick
As we're a few weeks away, I'm going to start previewing some of the week one games. The first one is Clemson @ Auburn.
This will be an easy game for Clemson. Last year Clemson was 5-0 away SU and Auburn was 4-4. Auburn was 2-7 at home ATS while Clemson was 2-3. Both teams are evenly penalized at around 47 yds/pgm.
If this is a competitive game, Clemson will win 35-20. If it's not, don't be surprised to see a monstrous blowout by the 3rd Q. Auburn has a problem at QB and their line play is going to suffer all season. This Auburn team is a realistic 4 to 5 win regular season team. Clemson has solid returning starters all over the place. Deshaun Watson will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in college football this year. They will not be overlooking this game at all.
The LPR rating (Loss Profile Rating) is in favor of Clemson at 29.5. Historically, this equates to a probability of 97.47% in terms of winning straight up. Head -2- Head gives Clemson 79% of all probable scoring potential. RiskMark, which accounts for how risky each pick in our system is, shows a 4.9% risk of being incorrect.
The last two times these two teams faced were in 2011 and 2012. Clemson won both games 38-24 and 26-19.
TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength) has Auburn at a whopping 124.4. Auburn is 59.3.
Against similar defenses last year, Clemson offensively scored 58 points and 45 points against Miami and North Carolina. Against similar offenses last year, Clemson defensively allowed 17, 22, 0, and 41 points against Louisville, Notre Dame, Miami and NC State for an average of 20 points.
Turnover differential between teams is within a margin of 2.
Scoring Prediction: Clemson 56, Auburn 17
Recommend: Take Clemson at -7 or -7.5 on the early ATS. I doubt it will drop much more as the game gets closer.
If you're predicting a 39 point win in a game with a line of -7.5, this should be the biggest bet of your entire life.
Quote: JoelDeze
Scoring Prediction: Clemson 56, Auburn 17
Recommend: Take Clemson at -7 or -7.5 on the early ATS. I doubt it will drop much more as the game gets closer.
Props to you for putting your money where your mouth is! But one question.... I would be more likely to agree with your assessments if this was game 14 of last season, not game 1 of this season. How do you know if the new linebackers for Clemson compare to last years? Or if the new defensive ends for Auburn aren't way better..... (made up examples). In college football probably 40% of starters are new year to year?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: JoelDeze
Scoring Prediction: Clemson 56, Auburn 17
Recommend: Take Clemson at -7 or -7.5 on the early ATS. I doubt it will drop much more as the game gets closer.
Props to you for putting your money where your mouth is! But one question.... I would be more likely to agree with your assessments if this was game 14 of last season, not game 1 of this season. How do you know if the new linebackers for Clemson compare to last years? Or if the new defensive ends for Auburn aren't way better..... (made up examples). In college football probably 40% of starters are new year to year?
Eye Test. Scouting reports. Lots of scouting reports. Week one is a tough week for most people because it's difficult to know how teams fare up. Clemson is a playoff team again this year. Game one is the type of game you prepare an entire offseason for to ensure you jump out to a good start. Coaching and preparation favor Clemson as well. Clemson's offensive line is better than last year's and may be one of the best that Clemson's ever fielded. They return 8 starters on offense and are very deep on the depth chart.
Defensively they return 3 starters but they were already 3-deep on the DT spot and 3-deep on the DE spot last year. They were 4-deep in their LB core unit. Their real weakness, if there's any, will be in the secondary. They lost 3 of 4 in the secondary but get back one of their best players on the team. They face one of the weakest Auburn offenses to ever take the field.
Auburn returns 5 starters and 6 starters (offensive/defensively). They are very weak in the receiver/tight end spots (which matches well with Clemson's weakness in the secondary). Even with all of their starters last year they were barely posting above 300 yards per game. They also have a lot of issues in the QB spot. Malzahn will be on the hot seat this season and he's very predictable. He had some fresh ideas when he first came into the SEC but it all comes to an end eventually. I expect him to be ousted after this year.
Quote: SM777Auburn's season win total is 7 with the over favored..... Common sense will tell you they are not a "4 to 5 win regular season team."
If you're predicting a 39 point win in a game with a line of -7.5, this should be the biggest bet of your entire life.
As I mentioned (which you must have missed), if it is a "competitive game", Clemson wins 35-20 (by 15 points). If it's not, Clemson rolls over Auburn. I believe it to be the latter but it really doesn't matter. They are an easy -14 cover right now.
I will mention that I am a bit of a homerun for full disclosure but I LOVE Missouri +11 at West Virginia. WVU is dealing with all kinds of suspensions and some injuries and MU will have another outstanding defense. The offense was a disaster last year but we would expect some nice progression from Drew Lock and OU transfer Alex Ross and Alabama transfer Chris Black should really improve our options on offense.
I think this game should be about a pickem, it's not like WVU is expected to do much in The Big 12.
As for Clemson, I like the pick from what I've read so far.
Score Prediction is now 49-27.
Quote: ZourahMissouri +11 at West Virginia.
I am sitting by my computer typing wearing my MIZZOU T-Shirt, as my son is now a proud alum. He predicts Mizzou will be the worst team in the SEC, and one of the worst 'power' division I schools. Coach/AD/racial strife/drugs.... etc.... Bet on Mizzou at your own risk...
Quote: JoelDezeClemson's best defensive lineman was injured this week.
Score Prediction is now 49-27.
Haha. This is great stuff. A defensive lineman worth literally 0 points to the spread changes your score prediction by over 14 points? Keep the comedy coming. Please.
how much are you betting per game?Quote: JoelDezeClemson @ Auburn
As we're a few weeks away, I'm going to start previewing some of the week one games. The first one is Clemson @ Auburn.
This will be an easy game for Clemson. Last year Clemson was 5-0 away SU and Auburn was 4-4. Auburn was 2-7 at home ATS while Clemson was 2-3. Both teams are evenly penalized at around 47 yds/pgm.
If this is a competitive game, Clemson will win 35-20. If it's not, don't be surprised to see a monstrous blowout by the 3rd Q. Auburn has a problem at QB and their line play is going to suffer all season. This Auburn team is a realistic 4 to 5 win regular season team. Clemson has solid returning starters all over the place. Deshaun Watson will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in college football this year. They will not be overlooking this game at all.
The LPR rating (Loss Profile Rating) is in favor of Clemson at 29.5. Historically, this equates to a probability of 97.47% in terms of winning straight up. Head -2- Head gives Clemson 79% of all probable scoring potential. RiskMark, which accounts for how risky each pick in our system is, shows a 4.9% risk of being incorrect.
The last two times these two teams faced were in 2011 and 2012. Clemson won both games 38-24 and 26-19.
TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength) has Auburn at a whopping 124.4. Auburn is 59.3.
Against similar defenses last year, Clemson offensively scored 58 points and 45 points against Miami and North Carolina. Against similar offenses last year, Clemson defensively allowed 17, 22, 0, and 41 points against Louisville, Notre Dame, Miami and NC State for an average of 20 points.
Turnover differential between teams is within a margin of 2.
Scoring Prediction: Clemson 56, Auburn 17
Recommend: Take Clemson at -7 or -7.5 on the early ATS. I doubt it will drop much more as the game gets closer.
How much do you be when you start really ramping it up?
If by chanc someone wanted to book your action and even give some incentive to do so (let's say somome willing to escrow the money's you know it to be paid when you win)
Would you let them take your action?
Quote: SM777Haha. This is great stuff. A defensive lineman worth literally 0 points to the spread changes your score prediction by over 14 points? Keep the comedy coming. Please.
Clemson had only 3 returning on defense. Now they are down to 2 returners. Clemson has one of the best offenses in the nation with playmakers all over the field.
Even so, line play is important and this leaves them mostly untested on the defensive side. It's the difference of a +1/-1 swing in possessions.
I've been doing this for a living for years. When you wager $50k per week come back and talk to me.
Quote: JoelDeze
I've been doing this for a living for years. .
No. No you haven't.
Quote: SOOPOOI am sitting by my computer typing wearing my MIZZOU T-Shirt, as my son is now a proud alum. He predicts Mizzou will be the worst team in the SEC, and one of the worst 'power' division I schools. Coach/AD/racial strife/drugs.... etc.... Bet on Mizzou at your own risk...
That's an interesting perspective. I still know quite a few people back in Columbia and the story I am getting is that Coach Odom has cleaned house and the players that are left seem all be on the same page.
Here's the thing though, there is no way this team has more turmoil than they did last year and I honestly think last year's team would've been able to defend West Virginia affectively. This team is really strong defensively particularly along the line.
I guess it's hard for me to see how the team would have more problems this year than last year. And the dismissal of some of the players with an unsavory element I think was very necessary and should help.
Quote: Zourah
I guess it's hard for me to see how the team would have more problems this year than last year. And the dismissal of some of the players with an unsavory element I think was very necessary and should help.
His perspective is that it was the more talented players that were part of 'the unsavory element', and that they are being replaced with lesser level recruits. Niceness usually is less important than talent.....
Would you be willing to let someone book that action? Assuming you know the money was guaranteed?Quote: JoelDezeAxel, generally $10-$15k for weeks 1-5, $25-$30k for weeks 6-9, $50k+ after week 9.
Quote: AxelWolfWould you be willing to let someone book that action? Assuming you know the money was guaranteed?
I've mentioned this in the past and I've been leaning towards entity betting since it became available. I'll discuss this privately with you next week, as I have more time available. I really hate making the trips to Vegas myself so this may be the driving goal for me.
Quote: SOOPOOHis perspective is that it was the more talented players that were part of 'the unsavory element', and that they are being replaced with lesser level recruits. Niceness usually is less important than talent.....
Losing Brady hurts but Brantley was never going to return from injury anyway. That D line still might be best in the country – it will certainly be in the top 10. It sounds like Terry Beckner Jr is 100% and Charles Harris is a stud
Fifth year senior, started every game last year
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
Quote: lilredroosterBetonline.ag has Clemson -7.5 and the money line is -280/+235. This book is a little more generous than most but the basic unwritten rule is the farther a game is from a pick, the less the vig on the money line. The vig against a typical spread with a 10/11 payout is 4.55% On the money line here using Wiz's straight bet calculator I found the HA against the money line to be only 3.41% You gain 1.14% in reduced vig by betting on the money line. Since everyone would pretty much agree that if you can beat sports it's by a very small margin this seems to me to be pretty significant. Most wouldn't want to bet the fave on the money line because of the skimpy payout and increased variance. Pardon me if I state the obvious but there may be newbie bettors here: If you bet Clemson at -7.5 and with 2 minutes left they're up by 6 on their own 40 yard line they're probably not going to try to score but will instead run out the clock meaning you will lose your bet even though you may were probably right that in this game they were more than 7.5 points better than Auburn. Considering all these things I consider the money line to be a significantly better bet on the fave and I would accept the smaller payout and the increased variance. Unless I had a very strong opinion that a greater than predicted # of points is likely to be scored by the fave and not scored by the dog. And this is much more difficult to predict than to predict the winner; again I'm aware that I'm stating the obvious here.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/
I'll add to your post.
Normally, for me, I will wager the ML for -110 to -250. That's my value range on favorites. If it's a dog, I'll wager on the ATS, if the dog ML is equal to or lower than +250. If you have a highly predictive system this is all you need to do to make a profit.
However, you can still wager 3 units to 1 unit on this type of game. 3 units on the ML and 1 unit on he ATS. This is for favorites. For underdogs, I do a 2 unit to 1 unit wager. 2 units on the ATS and 1 unit on the ML.
It depends on your CAR (Capital at Risk), the size of your bankroll and the quality of the prediction. I would suggest everyone become familiar with different aspects of wagering.
Quote: SOOPOOAll those who went against our two prognosticators are rolling in the money! Of course one game does not a season make but boy were they both wrong! My sons take on the Mizzou team was spot on. As I stated earlier though it is good to see some people willing to put their picks out for all to see. Maybe week two will be there redemption!
I'm not sure if you are referring to me as one of the prognosticators but anyway I recommended betting on the money line which would have won. But I wasn't actually picking the game, I was just talking generally, so I can't take credit either. But it is one more example of the money line winning while the spread loses.
Quote: SOOPOOHis perspective is that it was the more talented players that were part of 'the unsavory element', and that they are being replaced with lesser level recruits. Niceness usually is less important than talent.....
This is definitely true. Although Mauk was never that good. Definitely wasn't when he was stoned. We looked like crap yesterday, reminded me of Mizzou football when I was in school. Congrats on your son becoming a fellow Mizzou alum!
Quote: SOOPOOAll those who went against our two prognosticators are rolling in the money! Of course one game does not a season make but boy were they both wrong! My sons take on the Mizzou team was spot on. As I stated earlier though it is good to see some people willing to put their picks out for all to see. Maybe week two will be there redemption!
If we can get this guy to post picks all year, it will be a great fade opportunity.
Well Auburn was one of the few SEC teams that played well this week. Their defensive line was fairly solid most of the game. I don't particularly like the non-call on the FG with 40 seconds to go because Clemson was only up by 6 at the time. Had Auburn come back and won the game I think a lot of people would have been questioning the call not to kick. The kick would have covered the spread.
With that said, I'm still 4-2 this week with two games to go. I didn't pick a huge slate of games because of it being week one. If Clemson would have kicked the FG I'd probably be 5-1 right now. Oh well, that happens sometimes.
The remaining games I have are:
Notre Dame (-165 ML)
Florida State (-2.5, -160)
I bought a majority of these early on to lock in value. I'm hoping to finish out at 6-2 this week. I'm 3-1 on ATS and 1-1 on ML.
Notre Dame will be a tough call. Both teams have really solid running games and Texas will more than likely start or play their freshman QB (who has a very solid arm). I believe Notre Dame's line is undervalued and will step up and create some issues for Texas. Some folks have Texas upsetting them and it may happen. But, I'm not sold on Texas until they can prove they can win a big game.
Florida State will cover. I have no doubt on that.
Quote: SM777If we can get this guy to post picks all year, it will be a great fade opportunity.
If I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks. I mentioned early on if anyone wanted a free preview to my picks (and I'm not posting the site due to forum rules), just PM me and I'll give you a free preview for the season.
Then, you can truly see the value of what I do. Until then, talk all the smack you want. I've made money this week and will continue to make money the remainder of the season.
Quote: JoelDezeIf I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks. I mentioned early on if anyone wanted a free preview to my picks (and I'm not posting the site due to forum rules), just PM me and I'll give you a free preview for the season.
Then, you can truly see the value of what I do. Until then, talk all the smack you want. I've made money this week and will continue to make money the remainder of the season.
You adjusted your unrealistic prediction based on a defensive lineman not playing. A player literally worthless to the spread. That's all I need to know, and I made a good chunk fading as well.
All I ask is you please continue to post your teaser picks here or whatever. I am very confident it will be profitable. Off to a great start already!
Quote: SM777You adjusted your unrealistic prediction based on a defensive lineman not playing. A player literally worthless to the spread. That's all I need to know, and I made a good chunk fading as well.
All I ask is you please continue to post your teaser picks here or whatever. I am very confident it will be profitable. Off to a great start already!
Yes, and I'm sure based on week one you would say that the SEC is completely worthless based off of what you saw? LSU losing. Miss St. losing to South Alabama. Florida struggling to UMASS. Tennessee surviving App State. And, the list goes on and on.
In week one teams struggle. It's the nature of the season. Teams have an entire off season to prepare for the opponent but a lot of the elite teams out there were very rusty this week. If you think that this is what Clemson's offense will look like for the remainder of the season by all means back it up and wager against them for the remainder of the season.
I'm not going to get upset for missing a pick or two on week one. It happens. But, it appears to me that you feed off of other posters, chalk and spit out your diatribe, and then try to belittle people. If that makes you happy, by all means continue to be a miserable son of a bitch. You are 100% entitled to be an asshole. Someone's got to be one and you might as well be it.
Again, I'm winning this week. I seriously doubt you won a single dime this week.
Quote: JoelDezeYes, and I'm sure based on week one you would say that the SEC is completely worthless based off of what you saw? LSU losing. Miss St. losing to South Alabama. Florida struggling to UMASS. Tennessee surviving App State. And, the list goes on and on.
In week one teams struggle. It's the nature of the season. Teams have an entire off season to prepare for the opponent but a lot of the elite teams out there were very rusty this week. If you think that this is what Clemson's offense will look like for the remainder of the season by all means back it up and wager against them for the remainder of the season.
I'm not going to get upset for missing a pick or two on week one. It happens. But, it appears to me that you feed off of other posters, chalk and spit out your diatribe, and then try to belittle people. If that makes you happy, by all means continue to be a miserable son of a bitch. You are 100% entitled to be an asshole. Someone's got to be one and you might as well be it.
Again, I'm winning this week. I seriously doubt you won a single dime this week.
I lost a first half total for 1.1 units, and won fading you for 2 units. So, I'm actually up .9 units. However, if I want to be like you, I'll come in after the fact and post some glorious 100-1 record after posting a total dud of a loser pick.
Don't worry about the write up everyone, I know it lost. But the games you didn't know I played, I went 100-0 on! I'm a winner!!!!
Quote: SM777I lost a first half total for 1.1 units, and won fading you for 2 units. So, I'm actually up .9 units. However, if I want to be like you, I'll come in after the fact and post some glorious 100-1 record after posting a total dud of a loser pick.
Don't worry about the write up everyone, I know it lost. But the games you didn't know I played, I went 100-0 on! I'm a winner!!!!
My picks are on my site well in advance of every game played. If you want to debate me properly then see for yourself. It's "free" for "you". Just PM me and I'll give you everything you need. Then, on week 2, when you see for yourself you can stop your ridiculous assumptions. You can use my site freely for the entire year. Hell, if you don't agree with me then simply go against every pick that's posted and all of the data that's showcased.
Or, just continue posting misinformed opinions and take the cowardly way out. If you don't take me up on my offer then you have nothing more to say about this topic.
I'm not sure what rule you think you would be breaking, but if you just post your selections, without a link to your web site, no rule would be broken. As I stated before..... I like your attitude and willingness to give us all something to talk about. Keep the picks and discussion coming.
Quote: JoelDezeIf I had posted all my picks you would have said differently. I can post a lead off game here and there but it wouldn't be fair to paying customers to post an entire slate of weekly picks..
Hi Joel. No, it would be fair to paying customers. Since we now know you are a tout we can make our own decisions. We wish you good luck this season. I sincerely hope using another name you aren't giving the other side of these "lead off game(s) here and there" hoping to make yet another sale.
Quote: NokTangHi Joel. No, it would be fair to paying customers. Since we now know you are a tout we can make our own decisions. We wish you good luck this season. I sincerely hope using another name you aren't giving the other side of these "lead off game(s) here and there" hoping to make yet another sale.
I may do that for next week. I have no idea what you are talking about in your last statement.
As for Notre Dame, I took the Over 28 in the first half and the Over 30.5 in the second half. I picked up 0.7 units overall but was hoping Notre Dame would pull it out in the end. Great game though. Lived up to the hype...
Quote: JoelDezeI may do that for next week. I have no idea what you are talking about in your last statement.
As for Notre Dame, I took the Over 28 in the first half and the Over 30.5 in the second half. I picked up 0.7 units overall but was hoping Notre Dame would pull it out in the end. Great game though. Lived up to the hype...
Keep the fades coming! Notre Dame ML..... Great stuff.
Oh by the way, I hit everything else that I didn't post. This is comical!
Quote: JoelDezeI may do that for next week. I have no idea what you are talking about in your last statement.
As for Notre Dame, I took the Over 28 in the first half and the Over 30.5 in the second half. I picked up 0.7 units overall but was hoping Notre Dame would pull it out in the end. Great game though. Lived up to the hype...
Thanks for your reply without the name calling seen prior. Much appreciated.
I'm talking about how some "services", "touts", "professionals", etc., salesmen all of them, have been caught giving both sides of a major game using different covers/fronts/names. Then of course they call the duped "customer" back, who had the "lock of the year" and try and get money from him/her for the next so called lock of the year etc.. It's just sales with a twist. Nothing illegal about it really. Stock brokers do it all the time! Good luck. Lots of "fools on stools" in the world.
Touting and selling both sides of a game isnt illeagal?Quote: NokTangThanks for your reply without the name calling seen prior. Much appreciated.
I'm talking about how some "services", "touts", "professionals", etc., salesmen all of them, have been caught giving both sides of a major game using different covers/fronts/names. Then of course they call the duped "customer" back, who had the "lock of the year" and try and get money from him/her for the next so called lock of the year etc.. It's just sales with a twist. Nothing illegal about it really. Stock brokers do it all the time! Good luck. Lots of "fools on stools" in the world.
Quote: AxelWolfTouting and selling both sides of a game isnt illeagal?
How could it be? I'm not an attorney nor a member of law enforcement, but I don't see any possibility it's illegal. Perhaps too broad a statement by me saying "nothing illegal" but I simply don't think so and no one has ever said it was. In the stock market analogy you sometimes have "brokers" benefiting from the sale in the form of they actually hold the other side(short or long) or are being paid excessively by the company to sell it, but not with game picks. It's a win win for the tout. He/she has a customer fooled into believing the football is round and that he/she can predict turnovers etc.. It's such a small segment and the so called "information" is such a joke to most, well you get the point.
Quote: JoelDeze
The remaining games I have are:
Notre Dame (-165 ML)
Florida State (-2.5, -160)
Florida State will cover. I have no doubt on that.
This insane. Can I pay you to keep posting here? This could be a lot more profitable than I ever imagined.
Your best bet Clemson, doesn't cover. You lay -165 on Notre Dame money line and lose, and you lay -160 to bet FSU -2.5 and they're getting blown out.
Can you somehow spin things to tell us you won money? Let me guess, you hit first quarter, first half, and the total on the game. But decided not to post about it?
Quote: SM777This insane. Can I pay you to keep posting here? This could be a lot more profitable than I ever imagined.
Your best bet Clemson, doesn't cover. You lay -165 on Notre Dame money line and lose, and you lay -160 to bet FSU -2.5 and they're getting blown out.
Can you somehow spin things to tell us you won money? Let me guess, you hit first quarter, first half, and the total on the game. But decided not to post about it?
As you know by now, FSU came back strong in the second half, and according to reports still almost failed to cover.(I can't watch in Asia)
Please don't deter folks like Joel from posting picks. I'm sure others with "information" are on the other side of each and every one of these games. Like I inferred, it's about turnover of the customer base.
The way a fraud like Joel works, is by spouting a bunch of drivel about how he "knows" this or that. He is tossing coins, but at some point he'll go on a coin tossing heater and then some poor saps will think he isn't clueless and pay for his picks, until the heater ends and they lose their bets and the pick money. He'll also play games with his record keeping, as we see here.
Just remember, these big sports are bet by teams of millionaires who went to MIT and have factored in the fact that the QB had 9 beers last night instead of 5. That doesn't mean that inefficiencies never exist. I know some people who beat these sports with a lot of hard work. I pick up money here and there just by looking for bad lines.
However, it is practically impossible to sit there on your couch and go, "oh yeah, I really like Notre Dame's QB and the Texas D might be down this year and whoa boy, LSU sure are tough at home, durdurdur," and beat these sports.
I'm going to remake my dedicated touts thread at some point. I hope nobody here ever pays one of these jokers. Maybe the worst part is, you're paying them to take the fun out of it! It's fun to sit there and try to figure out who will win the games. None of these guys are better at it than you. It's like handing someone your slot machine money, having them take 10% off the top and then do all the playing for you.
Quote: NokTangAs you know by now, FSU came back strong in the second half, and according to reports still almost failed to cover.(I can't watch in Asia)
Please don't deter folks like Joel from posting picks. I'm sure others with "information" are on the other side of each and every one of these games. Like I inferred, it's about turnover of the customer base.
We defiantly don't want to discourage TOUTS from posting up ALL their picks, IMO that's exactly what Joel is. He seems to be a nice guy and all, but a tout nonetheless.
Some touts get very tricky and are masters at hiding the truth. If you have a group of touts secretly working together just imagine the possibilities.
It's also easy to have many different online sports accounts bet a different bets at each one and then show the winning account meanwhile you lost at all the other places.
PAYING FOR TOUT SERVICES IS A LOSING BET. ..... JUST SAY NO!!!!!!
"Those who can, do, those who can't, TOUT"
Rigondeaux originally lead me to this, I believe someone else may have posted it up as well but i think it should be linked to often.......
http://deadspin.com/how-america-s-favorite-sports-betting-expert-turned-a-s-1782438574
Here is a few teasers.......
Bell loves to say that every pick ever sold on Pregame is archived and available for review. This is ostensibly true, but to access results older than 30 days requires clicking through a calendar, day by day, and entering CAPTCHA codes for each one. Before long you find yourself in an infinite CAPTCHA loop, unable to continue, blocked from any attempts to tabulate the hard evidence.
Until now. Two real-world bettors, one of whom is a former financial analyst in his late 20s who is highly regarded by oddsmakers, developed a script to scrape Pregame.com URLs for daily selections and results going back to Jan. 1 2011, and their findings speak for themselves.
In just about every sport, college or pro, Pregame’s picks are losing money. The data covers 49 touts who sold their plays during this period (not including those whose existences have been completely expunged from the archives, like David Glisan, Mike Hook, and Stan Sharp), and of those 49, only 11 of them showed a profit. Of those gains, most were marginal and would be wiped out by standard fees. >>*>>If Pregame’s experts followed their own betting advice, as Bell claims they do, most would be penniless.<<*<<<
http://www.sportsgrid.com/uncategorized/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/
Quote: RigondeauxIt's illegal to sell both sides of a game in a direct way because it's fraud. You obviously are not selling picks you think will win..
I wasn't aware thinking you will win the game is a requirement to avoid fraud implications. Lawyers know they will lose all the time but take cases for the money. What's the difference?
I watched a youtube last night showing a tout with a customer who flew into Las Vegas. It was ridiculous. The tout went to the window with said customer and then said he was limited(to $2000.usd on a college football side) because the ticket seller "saw me". Unreal some of these sales techniques.
Quote: RigondeauxIt's illegal to sell both sides of a game in a direct way because it's fraud. You obviously are not selling picks you think will win. But, ...
The way a fraud like Joel works, is by spouting a bunch of drivel about how he "knows" this or that. He is tossing coins, but at some point he'll go on a coin tossing heater and then some poor saps will think he isn't clueless and pay for his picks, until the heater ends and they lose their bets and the pick money. He'll also play games with his record keeping, as we see here.
...
take 10% off the top and then do all the playing for you.
Rig,
I get what you're saying, and I appreciate it. However, you're a couple toes over the personal insult line. Joel says he can take the shade, so I'm stopping with a warning. Take issue with what he's doing all you want; I think it's very valuable to have it. But don't call HIM a fraud or clueless, please. Thanks.
Quote: RigondeauxJust remember, these big sports are bet by teams of millionaires who went to MIT and have factored in the fact that the QB had 9 beers last night instead of 5.
How would going to MIT allow you access to this sort of information? How would going to MIT allow you to factor this sort of information in correctly? The reason sportsbook lines are so tough to beat is because they are market based, which includes all the MIT graduates and high school dropouts. Sitting on the couch with an opinion on a game is valued exactly the same as anyone else with an equal bet size
But that's also the reason they can be beaten. For instance:
Quote: JoelDezeFlorida State (-2.5, -160)
Parlay cards had them at better than -3.5 -120 or -4.5 -110. You could have taken that number Monday evening with along with week 1 NFL games that were also +EV. Total time spent "handicapping" and getting all your bets down: about 20 minutes.
Quote: SOOPOOAll those who went against our two prognosticators are rolling in the money! Of course one game does not a season make but boy were they both wrong! My sons take on the Mizzou team was spot on. As I stated earlier though it is good to see some people willing to put their picks out for all to see. Maybe week two will be there redemption!
It was a pretty sad game. Our schedule looks a little easier then it might have in the preseason - hopefully we can get more familiar with the new staff and improve. The offense actually look a little bit better than last year, of course it would be impossiblle to be worse!
I did go 4-3 against the spread this week whatever that is worth.
I do not claim to be an expert and like to get some discussion going by posting my ideas.
Quote: NokTangI wasn't aware thinking you will win the game is a requirement to avoid fraud implications. Lawyers know they will lose all the time but take cases for the money. What's the difference?
I watched a youtube last night showing a tout with a customer who flew into Las Vegas. It was ridiculous. The tout went to the window with said customer and then said he was limited(to $2000.usd on a college football side) because the ticket seller "saw me". Unreal some of these sales techniques.
Oh yeah, that show was on CNBC for a season. I honestly thought it was the best reality TV show I've ever seen. There was nothing about the show and made me want to hire that service but the people on the show did a good job of displaying interesting personalities. Also for someone like me it is kind of exciting to watch someone have 100 grand riding on the game even if they are not using the best money management techniques.
Money Talks - that was the name of the show. I was hoping they would bring it back. If someone watched that show and then hired that service that's their own fault. I thought it was entertaining as hell.
The best line ever on that show was one of the younger guys that was betting with these smalltime players. He's like "if you take the under you're winning the game from the very beginning!!!" My buddy and I say that now every time we bet an under.
Quote: TomGHow would going to MIT allow you access to this sort of information? How would going to MIT allow you to factor this sort of information in correctly? The reason sportsbook lines are so tough to beat is because they are market based, which includes all the MIT graduates and high school dropouts. Sitting on the couch with an opinion on a game is valued exactly the same as anyone else with an equal bet size
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I was attempting to do a funny blend of all the different elements you are competing against in the market.
Yes, stuff like parlay cards is the way to go.
