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EdCollins
EdCollins
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:27:58 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Compiled our picks. of course 1 for a pick and 2 for confidence

Least Love
Seahawks 0
Falcons 1


Note: I don't see anyone who picked the Falcons, so they should have 0 love also. :)

(My calculator program provides a weekly summary, which is how I caught this.)
EdCollins
EdCollins
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:29:27 AM permalink
Quote: 10DollarBri

EdCollins would you kindly provide a link to your picks game calculator again this year?



Okay. Let me play with it first, for the weekend, to make sure all the changes I made to get it ready for this year's contest (which includes our new rules), is working okay.
10DollarBri
10DollarBri
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:31:33 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Okay. Let me play with it first, for the weekend, to make sure all the changes I made to get it ready for this year's contest (which includes our new rules), is working okay.

Thanks Ed
I know nothing!
terapined
terapined
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:35:43 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Note: I don't see anyone who picked the Falcons, so they should have 0 love also. :)

(My calculator program provides a weekly summary, which is how I caught this.)



You are right :-)
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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September 11th, 2016 at 9:19:06 AM permalink
This format seeks to have way more interest then last years- hoping it stays going forward
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
SM777
SM777
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September 11th, 2016 at 11:55:32 AM permalink
Why does Joel Deze only have 4 picks listed on the official thread?
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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September 11th, 2016 at 11:56:25 AM permalink
Scroll up mission answered that
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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September 11th, 2016 at 1:18:33 PM permalink
Mission; fwiw, your keeping the official thread closed seems to be keeping it off the recent posts list as well. Maybe it could be open, with a link posted below to the discussion thread for comments? Just a thought.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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September 11th, 2016 at 1:45:04 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Why does Joel Deze only have 4 picks listed on the official thread?



This is my first time joining for this game and I misinterpreted the rules. I believed you could insert a confidence pick (that would count as 2 games) instead of doing a 5th. I would have been more than happy to submit a 5th pick but the timing would have been difficult, especially considering I was celebrating my anniversary last night with my wife.

Thanks to Mission for allowing it.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
GWAE
GWAE
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September 11th, 2016 at 2:25:55 PM permalink
Starting out 0-3. There is no way I don't win the worst record award. I have been picking at a 30% clip for the last 3 years. And that is only picking 4-6 games a week. If I would have bet the opposite of my picks for the last 3 years I would be wealthy.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 11th, 2016 at 2:44:08 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Starting out 0-3. There is no way I don't win the worst record award. I have been picking at a 30% clip for the last 3 years. And that is only picking 4-6 games a week. If I would have bet the opposite of my picks for the last 3 years I would be wealthy.

For the love of god please send me your picks with plenty of time to bet the opposite.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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September 11th, 2016 at 2:53:20 PM permalink
Did you even enter the contest afraidwolf
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
Mission146
Mission146
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September 11th, 2016 at 3:27:16 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Mission; fwiw, your keeping the official thread closed seems to be keeping it off the recent posts list as well. Maybe it could be open, with a link posted below to the discussion thread for comments? Just a thought.



I could link back to it in this thread more often, but I want to avoid having two threads on the, 'Recent,' list that are effectively about the same thing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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September 11th, 2016 at 3:27:55 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

This is my first time joining for this game and I misinterpreted the rules. I believed you could insert a confidence pick (that would count as 2 games) instead of doing a 5th. I would have been more than happy to submit a 5th pick but the timing would have been difficult, especially considering I was celebrating my anniversary last night with my wife.

Thanks to Mission for allowing it.



You're welcome, congratulations on your anniversary!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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September 11th, 2016 at 5:13:35 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Starting out 0-3.

Well good thing that the NFL season is not just 1 week.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
GWAE
GWAE
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September 11th, 2016 at 5:21:36 PM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Well good thing that the NFL season is not just 1 week.



Giants pulled it out so only 1-2.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Zourah
Zourah
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:28:25 PM permalink
I really want to thank Mission for doing this again.

I expected this contest to reinforce my decision to never bet on the NFL except on very rare exceptions when I'm in Vegas for fun money only. Judging by the start I'm off to I think that's what's going to happen!
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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September 11th, 2016 at 7:51:11 PM permalink
Quote: Zourah

I really want to thank Mission for doing this again.

Ditto !
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 11th, 2016 at 8:24:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Did you even enter the contest afraidwolf

No, I would never get my picks in. Too much time, to little reward. I would only do a contest where you could put in as many or as little bets as you wish, with a predetemand bankroll.

Just want to see how the tout(s) is going to do.

However I can always bet cash opposite of GWAE.

I would probably follow a guys picks who had the opposite of GWAE record for 3 years in a row.

Betting opposite of G's picks sounds like a lock to me.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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September 11th, 2016 at 8:26:55 PM permalink
Or I could cross book you in poker- that might be a lock also
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
Mission146
Mission146
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September 12th, 2016 at 4:50:32 AM permalink
You're welcome to all who said thank you!

I'm pleased to be 3-1 going into tonight, for my part. The Giants made me sweat that pick, but they pulled it out. I don't know what I was thinking with that Chicago pick...should have picked Pats to cover, but I often don't pick them because I'm worried I'm making a homer pick.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
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September 12th, 2016 at 7:23:53 AM permalink
I opened 3-2, stupid Cowboys pick.
GWAE
GWAE
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September 12th, 2016 at 9:38:11 AM permalink
I got steelers as confident pick. You all do what you want with that info.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mission146
Mission146
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September 12th, 2016 at 10:32:28 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I got steelers as confident pick. You all do what you want with that info.



I already have them as a regular pick, nothing I can do about it now...jk
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
GWAE
GWAE
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September 12th, 2016 at 11:55:37 AM permalink
I didn't watch much yesterday but just got an alert that RG3 has a broken bone and will be out 2 to 3 months. I guess some people are just prone to breaking.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
DRich
DRich
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September 12th, 2016 at 12:07:24 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I got steelers as confident pick. You all do what you want with that info.



Damn you!!! I just made a bet on the Steeler's -1.5 right before I saw this. Now I am wondering if I should hedge it because your track record is becoming infamous.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GWAE
GWAE
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September 12th, 2016 at 12:14:59 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Damn you!!! I just made a bet on the Steeler's -1.5 right before I saw this. Now I am wondering if I should hedge it because your track record is becoming infamous.



Wow that line really moved. Wasn't it at 3.5 to open?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
EdCollins
EdCollins
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September 12th, 2016 at 10:26:18 PM permalink
Unofficial Results for Week 1.
Congrats to Terapined who finished with an impressive 5-0 record.

Mission146 (4-1)
Patriots UNDER 46.5 (win)
Bears +6 (loss)
Giants PK (win)
Lions +3.5 (win)
Steelers -3 (win)

Zourah (1-4)
Falcons UNDER 47.5 (loss)
Chiefs -6.5 (loss)
Giants PK (win)
Titans +2.5 (loss)
Rams -2.5 (loss)

TheoHuxtable (3-3)
Cowboys pk (loss)
Lions UNDER 51 (loss)
Saints -1 (loss)
Eagles -4 (win)
Vikings -2.5 Confidence (win)

SOOPOO (4-2)
Titans + 2.5 (loss)
Eagles - 4 confidence (win)
Jaguars + 5 (win)
Giants pk (win)
Rams - 2.5 (loss)

JML24 (2-3)
Bills +3 (loss)
Jaguars +5 (win)
Cowboys PK (loss)
Redskins +3 (loss)
49ers +2.5 (win)

Paradigm (3-2)
Raiders +1 (win)
Chargers +6.5 (win)
Giants Pick (win)
Browns +4 (loss)
Bears +6 (loss)

Terapined (5-0)
Bucs +3 (win)
49ers +2.5 (win)
Steelers -3 (win)
Giants PK (win)
Dolphins +10.5 (win)

Wizard (4-2)
Buccaneers (+3) confidence (win)
Browns (+4) (loss)
Ravens (-3) (win)
Lions (+3.5) (win)
Cardinals (-6) (loss)

JohnZimbo (5-1)
Raiders +1 Confidence (win)
Raiders over 51.5 (win)
Chiefs -6.5 (loss)
Giants pick em (win)
Bills under 44.5 (win)

JohnnyQ (3-2)
Buccaneers UNDER 47.5 (loss)
Eagles -4 (win)
Raiders UNDER 51.5 (loss)
Chargers +6.5 (win)
Dolphins +10.5 (win)

SM777 (2-3)
Bears +6 (loss)
Saints -1 (loss)
Jets +2.5 (win)
Falcons OVER 47.5 (win)
Cardinals -7 (loss)

JoelDeze (3-2)
Packers -5 (loss)
Texans -6 (win)
Vikings -2.5 - Confidence (win)
Eagles Over 41 (loss)
skip

JW17 (2-4)
Cardinals -6 CONFIDENCE (loss)
Raiders +1 (win)
Colts -3.5 (loss)
Ravens -3 (win)
Titians +2.5 (loss)

Rainman (1-5)
Chiefs -6.5 (loss)
Cardinals -6 (loss)
Steelers -3 (win)
Rams -2.5 (loss)
Redskins under 50-confidence (loss)

MidwestAP (2-3)
Colts -3.5 (loss)
Patriots +6 (win)
Saints -1 (loss)
Niners +2.5 (win)
Titans +2.5 (loss)

GenWyzgy (2-3)
Browns +4 (loss)
Lions +3.5 (win)
Chiefs -6.5 (loss)
Cardinals -6 (loss)
Jags OVER 48 (win)

10DollarBri (3-2)
Jets +2.5 (win)
Saints -1 (loss)
Texans -6 (win)
Jaguars +5 (win)
Cowboys PK (loss)

WizardofNothing (2-4)
Eagles -4 confidence (win)
Eagles over 41 (loss)
Cowboys PK (loss)
Dallas over 46 (loss)
Titans +2.5 (loss)

Wudged (0-5)
Saints -1 (loss)
Browns +4 (loss)
Packers -5 (loss)
Cowboys PK (loss)
Bengals -2.5 (loss)

Scottimus1 (4-2)
Falcons over 47.5 (win)
Dolphins over 44 (loss)
Bills +3 (loss)
Giants – PK – Confidence (win)
Steelers -3 (win)

EdCollins (3-2)
Ravens -3 (win)
Giants pick (win)
Chiefs -6.5 (loss)
Texans -6 (win)
Redskins +3 (loss)

OdiousGambit (2-3)
Saints UNDER 51.5 (loss)
Cardinals UNDER 46.5 (win)
Jaguars UNDER 48 (loss)
Giants (PK) (win)
Bengals -2.5 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (3-2)
Texans -6 (win)
Eagles -4 (win)
Cowboys PK (loss)
Saints -1 (loss)
Vikings -2.5 (win)

FourFiveFace (4-2)
Saints -1 (loss)
Chargers +6.5 (win)
Bears +6 (loss)
Lions +3.5-Confidence (win)
Patriots +6 (win)

BeachBumBabs (1-5)
Vikings UNDER 40.5 (loss)
Vikings -2.5 (win)
Chiefs -6.5-confidence (loss)
Bears +6 (loss)
Packers -5 (loss)

AyeCarumba (3-2)
Dolphins +10.5 (win)
Giants pk (win)
Lions +3.5 (win)
Patriots OVER 46.5 (loss)
Rams OVER 43.5 (loss)

RDW4POTUS (2-3)
Giants +0 (win)
Bengals -2.5 (loss)
Packers -5 (loss)
Ravens -3 (win)
Colts under 51 (loss)

Miplet (3-3)
Buccaneers +3 (win)
Jets +2.5 (win)
Bears +6 (loss)
Lions +3.5 (win)
Cardinals -6-confidence (loss)

GWAE (3-3)
Bills +3 (loss)
Packers -5 (loss)
Giants PK (win)
Cardinals -6 (loss)
Steelers -3 confidence (win)



Name Wins Losses %
Terapined 5 0 100.00%
JohnZimbo 5 1 83.33%
Mission146 4 1 80.00%
FourFiveFace 4 2 66.67%
Scottimus1 4 2 66.67%
SOOPOO 4 2 66.67%
Wizard 4 2 66.67%
10DollarBri 3 2 60.00%
AyeCarumba 3 2 60.00%
EdCollins 3 2 60.00%
JoelDeze 3 2 60.00%
JohnnyQ 3 2 60.00%
Paradigm 3 2 60.00%
PlayYourCardsRight 3 2 60.00%
GWAE 3 3 50.00%
Miplet 3 3 50.00%
TheoHuxtable 3 3 50.00%
GenWyzgy 2 3 40.00%
JML24 2 3 40.00%
MidwestAP 2 3 40.00%
OdiousGambit 2 3 40.00%
RDW4POTUS 2 3 40.00%
SM777 2 3 40.00%
JW17 2 4 33.33%
WizardofNothing 2 4 33.33%
Zourah 1 4 20.00%
BeachBumBabs 1 5 16.67%
Rainman 1 5 16.67%
Wudged 0 5 0.00%
Totals 79 78 50.32%
EdCollins
EdCollins
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September 12th, 2016 at 10:26:42 PM permalink
Quote: 10DollarBri

EdCollins would you kindly provide a link to your picks game calculator again this year?


Here's the link to my WOV contest calculator/spreadsheet.

It seems to be working okay.

1) Enter the contest spreads and the Over/Unders that Mission provides.
2) Copy and paste in everyone's picks, after Mission posts them.
3) Enter the final scores of the NFL games.
4) Click the Grading Button.

Week 1 is finished, as an example.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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September 12th, 2016 at 11:28:58 PM permalink
Thank you, wudged, for making me not the bottom on week one. Gnash.

I take under 40.5. Game total 41.
I take GB -5. They win by 4.
I take KC 6.5. Difference is 6 because it goes to OT, where they don't kick the PAT. Great comeback, though.

Wah wah wah. Pass the cheese, please.

Onward.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
terapined
terapined
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September 13th, 2016 at 3:59:56 AM permalink
Wow
5-0 start
I don't really follow football much due to the CTE issue. Hardly watched any games.
I love sports but not at the expense of participants destroying their brains.
All my picks were on some absurd form of a whim.
Picked the Bucs because they are my home team
Picked the 49'ers because I respect the knee Colin Kaepernick is taking
Picked the Steelers because I cant stand Washington owner Dan Snyder
Picked the Giants because I like Eli's commercials.
Picked the Dolphins they were getting 10.5 points. the most for the week.

Now in 1st place, maybe I need to study, then again the whim system is working :-)
EdCollins
EdCollins
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September 13th, 2016 at 8:29:16 AM permalink
Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

Note that this "opposing pick strategy" might be ideal (normally it would be a win for one game and a loss for the other game) if a person wants to stay at or near .500!

If we agree this is not "in the spirit of the game" to do this, then normally you could give them a loss for each pick.

But this year, with the Most Average Prize and the You Suck Prize, two losses might be exactly what they want. For example, it might be ideal to be subjected to a two loss penalty if a player is exactly two games above .500 late in the season or if they are near the bottom of the pack. If they are four games above .500, they could do this with four of their picks, guaranteeing them four losses!

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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September 13th, 2016 at 8:42:44 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

Note that this "opposing pick strategy" might be ideal (normally it would be a win for one game and a loss for the other game) if a person wants to stay at or near .500!

If we agree this is not "in the spirit of the game" to do this, then normally you could give them a loss for each pick.

But this year, with the Most Average Prize and the You Suck Prize, two losses might be exactly what they want. For example, it might be ideal to be subjected to a two loss penalty if a player is exactly two games above .500 late in the season or if they are near the bottom of the pack. If they are four games above .500, they could do this with four of their picks, guaranteeing them four losses!

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?



I would suggest that an illegal pick disqualifies a player from eligibility to win either mediocre or worst prizes. But not from winning the contest. And score losses as before.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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September 13th, 2016 at 9:12:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Thank you, wudged, for making me not the bottom on week one. Gnash.

I take under 40.5. Game total 41.
I take GB -5. They win by 4.
I take KC 6.5. Difference is 6 because it goes to OT, where they don't kick the PAT. Great comeback, though.

Wah wah wah. Pass the cheese, please.

Onward.



The GB game was disappointing.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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September 15th, 2016 at 11:26:38 AM permalink
I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further.

- There are 7 players who have participated in all four seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Steeldco, AyeCarumba, Miplet, Mission, and Ten2Win.

- In 2012, there wasn't an option to forfeit (go 0-5) once you exceeded your skip week, you were just out.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 BoyMimbo (57.95%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)

- I've listed the aggregated results for all participants with at least 200 picks over those four seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks (except 2014, as I couldn't identify those who took forfeits)

- The aggregated record for all players (53 unique participants over four seasons) is 4638-4622 (50.09%)


Player Win Loss Pct
Wizard 220 139 61.28%
MidwestAP 129 108 54.43%
Vendman1 106 94 53.00%
Mission146 174 156 52.73%
JW17 137 123 52.69%
Paradigm 132 121 52.17%
Miplet 184 169 52.12%
beachbumbabs 123 115 51.68%
JohnZimbo 192 183 51.20%
RDWPotus 107 103 50.95%
Terapined 126 122 50.81%
EdCollins 131 130 50.19%
AyeCarumba 185 185 50.00%
Steeldco 188 190 49.74%
StrictlyAP 133 135 49.63%
Aluiso 133 136 49.44%
JML24 129 134 49.05%
10DollarBri 126 135 48.28%
Ten2Win 172 198 46.49%
SOOPOO 137 159 46.28%
Last edited by: MidwestAP on Sep 15, 2016
EdCollins
EdCollins
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September 15th, 2016 at 11:36:37 AM permalink
Good work! Thanks for taking the time to do this.

A 61% win rate over this period is very impressive, to say the least. Look how much further Wiz is ahead of the field.

Glad to see I'm above .500. :)
Paradigm
Paradigm
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Joined: Feb 24, 2011
September 15th, 2016 at 12:22:19 PM permalink
Thanks for that list MidWest! Wiz is truly killing the rest of us...will be fun to have that updated at the conclusion of each year.
GWAE
GWAE
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September 15th, 2016 at 12:30:16 PM permalink
in order to make money you have to be above what? 55%?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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September 15th, 2016 at 12:44:26 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

in order to make money you have to be above what? 55%?



I think it is 52.5%
Ayecarumba
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September 15th, 2016 at 2:34:17 PM permalink
Note that the results also include some of the later weeks where trailing players had to fade the leaders obvious picks in hopes of gaining ground. I don't think we would have made those bets in a non-contest environment, so take the records (outside of the Wizard's strong performance) with a few grains of salt.

Also, I won the contest in 2013. There was some confusion as I actually sat out the last week, but my "if I had entered, here is what I would have done" picks were put in the mix.
Last edited by: Ayecarumba on Sep 15, 2016
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
AxelWolf
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September 15th, 2016 at 3:11:59 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further.

- There are 7 players who have participated in all four seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Steeldco, AyeCarumba, Miplet, Mission, and Ten2Win.

- In 2012, there wasn't an option to forfeit (go 0-5) once you exceeded your skip week, you were just out.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 BoyMimbo (57.95%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)

- I've listed the aggregated results for all participants with at least 200 picks over those four seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks (except 2014, as I couldn't identify those who took forfeits)

- The aggregated record for all players (53 unique participants over four seasons) is 4638-4622 (50.09%)


Player Win Loss Pct
Wizard 220 139 61.28%
MidwestAP 129 108 54.43%
Vendman1 106 94 53.00%
Mission146 174 156 52.73%
JW17 137 123 52.69%
Paradigm 132 121 52.17%
Miplet 184 169 52.12%
beachbumbabs 123 115 51.68%
JohnZimbo 192 183 51.20%
RDWPotus 107 103 50.95%
Terapined 126 122 50.81%
EdCollins 131 130 50.19%
AyeCarumba 185 185 50.00%
Steeldco 188 190 49.74%
StrictlyAP 133 135 49.63%
Aluiso 133 136 49.44%
JML24 129 134 49.05%
10DollarBri 126 135 48.28%
Ten2Win 172 198 46.49%
SOOPOO 137 159 46.28%

It's to my understanding that Mike makes market value picks? I think He's said many times he doesn't try to HC.

Would one be able to get down on all the games at the same line you guys put up?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mission146
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September 15th, 2016 at 4:06:01 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?



I would suggest that opposing Picks simply counting as a, 'Skip,' Week would solve the problem, with two occasions counting as a double skip that forfeits the potential to win anything except the top prize.

By the way, thanks, as always, for tracking the Standings!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 15th, 2016 at 4:08:44 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

I've noticed some interest in seeing aggregated results of Mission's picks games over the years, so I took a few minutes to pull the data together. I believe this is the fifth season, so the data below is compiled from the first four, starting with 2012. If I'm wrong, please let me know and I can go back further...



Thanks, that's awesome! I believe there was a clearly erroneous line one year...I want to say it involved the 49ers...that was allowed to stand and got a ton of Confidence Picks. That's probably a little to do with being over .500 as a group!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 15th, 2016 at 4:16:25 PM permalink
Quote:

It's to my understanding that Mike makes market value picks? I think He's said many times he doesn't try to HC.

Would one be able to get down on all the games at the same line you guys put up?



Sometimes, but the, 'Some,' is the problem. My understanding as relates Mike's Picks in the first season was that he based his decisions off of Line movement between when the Lines were posted and when he actually PM'ed his Picks. Of course, Miplet's page now gives that information directly, and I don't think Wizard does it EXACTLY that way anymore.

In other words, some of the Lines might be the same...but as far as the first season was concerned, not the Lines Wizard was playing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 15th, 2016 at 4:27:43 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 2 Lines are as follows:

Titans (+6) @ Lions (-6) O/U 47.5
Chiefs (+2.5) @ Texans (-2.5) O/U 43
Dolphins (+6.5) @ Patriots (-6.5) O/U 42
Ravens (-6.5) @ Browns (+6.5) O/U 42.5
Bengals (+3.5) @ Steelers (-3.5) O/U 48.5
Cowboys (+3) @ Redskins (-3) O/U 45.5
Saints (+4.5) @ Giants (-4.5) O/U 53
49ers (+13.5) @ Panthers (-13.5) O/U 45
Buccaneers (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 50
Seahawks (-6.5) @ Rams (+6.5) O/U 38
Colts (+6) @ Broncos (-6) O/U 46.5
Falcons (+4.5) @ Raiders (-4.5) O/U 49.5
Jaguars (+3) @ Chargers (-3) O/U 47
Packers (-2.5) @ Vikings (+2.5) O/U 43.5
Eagles (+3) @ Bears (-3) O/U 42.5

Picks are due by 23:59 EST on 9/17/16 and reminder PM's will be sent tomorrow night.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ayecarumba
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September 15th, 2016 at 4:52:01 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: EdCollins

Mission, while it's still early in the contest, and before anyone has done so, we should clarify what the penalty will be, if any at all, if a player "accidentally" makes opposing picks. (For example, if a player picked the 49ers and also picked the Rams this past week.)

So intentionally breaking the rules and giving two losses for it, can't be the way to go.

So what's the answer? Do we simply allow opposing picks this year? If we don't, then what exactly is the penalty?



I would suggest that opposing Picks simply counting as a, 'Skip,' Week would solve the problem, with two occasions counting as a double skip that forfeits the potential to win anything except the top prize.

By the way, thanks, as always, for tracking the Standings!



I respectfully disagree. I think that locking in a .500 victory by deliberately fouling picks is against the spirit of the competition. However, as long as the ruling is known and available to all players, if you choose to keep it that way, at least the playing field is level.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
beachbumbabs
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September 15th, 2016 at 5:25:37 PM permalink
I may be reading what Mission said wrong, but I think you guys are in agreement on this. A skip week is effectively voided, so no benefit to the person who did it over simply taking their skip week, and a second fouled pick (which is what we've always done to opposing picks) dq's the person from the mediocre and Suck prizes.

So I think we're talking process and terminology, and the result is the same.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MidwestAP
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September 16th, 2016 at 11:48:40 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Note that the results also include some of the later weeks where trailing players had to fade the leaders obvious picks in hopes of gaining ground. I don't think we would have made those bets in a non-contest environment, so take the records (outside of the Wizard's strong performance) with a few grains of salt.

Also, I won the contest in 2013. There was some confusion as I actually sat out the last week, but my "if I had entered, here is what I would have done" picks were put in the mix.



I don't know if any picks are 'obvious' when picking against a spread. I think the results are pretty representative outside of the fouled line that Mission pointed out, and any forfeited records from 2014.

You are absolutely correct about 2013, my apologies. I should have scrolled down about half a page to see the update explaining the faux picks. Since I can't edit my post from yesterday, I've posted the corrected results below.

- There are 7 players who have participated in all four seasons, Wizard, JohnZimbo, Steeldco, AyeCarumba, Miplet, Mission, and Ten2Win.

- In 2012, there wasn't an option to forfeit (go 0-5) once you exceeded your skip week, you were just out.

- The list of champions are:

2012 Wizard (71.26%)
2013 AyeCarumba (58.62%)
2014 Wizard (70.00%)
2015 Ed Collins (59.04%)

- I've listed the aggregated results for all participants with at least 200 picks over those four seasons. I have the complete record if anyone is interested in knowing other results.

- The results include confidence picks as double, and exclude the forfeited 0-5 weeks (except 2014, as I couldn't identify those who took forfeits)

- The aggregated record for all players (53 unique participants over four seasons) is 4636-4619 (50.09%)


Player Win Loss Pct
Wizard 220 139 61.28%
MidwestAP 129 108 54.43%
Vendman1 106 94 53.00%
Mission146 174 156 52.73%
JW17 137 123 52.69%
Paradigm 132 121 52.17%
Miplet 184 169 52.12%
beachbumbabs 123 115 51.68%
JohnZimbo 192 183 51.20%
RDWPotus 107 103 50.95%
Terapined 126 122 50.81%
EdCollins 131 130 50.19%
AyeCarumba 183 182 50.14%
Steeldco 188 190 49.74%
StrictlyAP 133 135 49.63%
Aluiso 133 136 49.44%
JML24 129 134 49.05%
10DollarBri 126 135 48.28%
Ten2Win 172 198 46.49%
SOOPOO 137 159 46.28%
Mission146
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September 16th, 2016 at 7:05:13 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I may be reading what Mission said wrong, but I think you guys are in agreement on this. A skip week is effectively voided, so no benefit to the person who did it over simply taking their skip week, and a second fouled pick (which is what we've always done to opposing picks) dq's the person from the mediocre and Suck prizes.

So I think we're talking process and terminology, and the result is the same.



That's correct. Any offsetting Picks will result in a Skip week and multiple Skip weeks DQ the player from winning either of the consolation prizes.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 16th, 2016 at 7:23:14 PM permalink
The reminders have been sent, the subject line says Week 1 again, sorry about that. I'm half asleep and didn't notice until I had already sent them all.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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