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DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 16th, 2016 at 1:28:03 PM permalink
RE: Rebel Stakes @OP (10th race - 4:06 PDT)

I have no idea. So I will be watching it closely, but won't be betting it.

And no, as a matter of fact, I do not expect this to win an award for most helpful post of the year.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 16th, 2016 at 8:29:29 PM permalink
Yup, throw a dart and hope for the best. Hard to really make a strong case for any of the runners. Weather forecast looks good for race day (cool and clear). High weights giving 7 lbs to many (Suddenbreakingnews, Discreetness), shippers coming in from all over (Cupid, Cherry Wine, Ralis), long layoff runner (Ralis), Poor posts outside (Cherry Wine, Suddenbreakingnews), the Baffert factor (Cupid)...

I will make a minor case for Siding Spring. 2nd race off long layoff, 2nd over the track (5th in Southwest), showed speed with the lead into the stretch (losing by ~6 lengths), better post position this time(5), and training nicely since last (3 works). He needs to show up here or he may quickly return to the turf.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 17th, 2016 at 5:32:04 PM permalink
What's the o/u for starters from the Pletcher Equine Industrial Complex this year? As low as 2.5-ish in the gate on May 7th, or does he have three or four more in the back of the barn he hasn't gotten around to yet? Anything < 3 seems like kind of a slow year for La Machine de Cheval d'Todd.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 17th, 2016 at 11:13:29 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

What's the o/u for starters from the Pletcher Equine Industrial Complex this year? As low as 2.5-ish in the gate on May 7th, or does he have three or four more in the back of the barn he hasn't gotten around to yet? Anything < 3 seems like kind of a slow year for La Machine de Cheval d'Todd.


Not only does he seem to have less "visible" 3yos this season, but many are also lightly raced. Some have assumed a "change" in his approach to the Triple Crown... He has Saratoga Mischief that recently burned some cash @ Parx. He is sending Gettysburg (with others) to N.Mexico w/ J Castellano in tow. No derby points but they must have hope for Gettysburg.
I would still take the over (2.5) for the PEIC making the gate at Churchill Downs for the Derby.
What does @NotTheToddster have to say about it?
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 18th, 2016 at 12:19:48 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Not only does he seem to have less "visible" 3yos this season, but many are also lightly raced. Some have assumed a "change" in his approach to the Triple Crown... He has Saratoga Mischief that recently burned some cash @ Parx. He is sending Gettysburg (with others) to N.Mexico w/ J Castellano in tow. No derby points but they must have hope for Gettysburg.
I would still take the over (2.5) for the PEIC making the gate at Churchill Downs for the Derby.
What does @NotTheToddster have to say about it?

Well, N.T. Toddster is still at large and still frisky...

Quote: @NotTheToddster

T.A. Pletcher ‏@NotTheToddster Mar 12
T.A. Pletcher Retweeted joe f
Already own a track there.

joe f @b1joe @NotTheToddster
You should buy a house in Tampa

3 retweets 21 likes Reply Retweet 3 Like 21

...but I see no tip sheet for handicapping the o/u.

Shipping anything with "Saratoga" in the name into PARX is just wrong.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 19th, 2016 at 4:36:05 AM permalink
Here are 2 different rankings of 3 year olds. The 1st is by Bloodhorse as of 3/8. The 2nd is by Equibase of just males by speed figures as of 3/18.
It surprised me that Nyquist wasn't on the Equibase ranking but I don't have access to all the speed figures.
It looks like Songbird is going to the Oaks, not the Derby which is a little bit disappointing. But according to Equibase her top speed figure is 105 short of the colts.
The numbers next to the horses on the Bloodhorse ranking are the no. of 1st place votes and then the no. of points in an NTRA poll.
This is what the Windsor Star said of Nyquist's speed in the San Vincente: "Nyquist took on a challenge from Sheikh of Sheiks and Exaggerator was never headed and won under a hand ride from jockey Mario Guttierez in 1:20.71, the 2nd fastest finish since the race was lengthened to 7 furlongs in 1955." In Nyquist's 1st race a 5 furlong maiden special he was only .06 seconds off the track record at Santa Anita and he did the first quarter in under 22 seconds. But according to Dead's earlier post his bloodline does not indicate stamina. Interestingly, re our earlier discussion of Destin; Equibase gave him a figure of 110, significantly higher than Beyer's 100. Equibase doesn't say so but I'm assuming that these are the highest figures the horses have ever posted which for Destin would be his last race.


1, Mohaymen (23) - 420
2, Nyquist (13) - 400
3, Mor Spirit (20 - 263
4, Songbird (6) - 240
5, Shagaf - 171
6, Exaggerator - 168
7, Gun Runner - 142
8, Suddenbreakingnews - 106
9, Mo Tom - 92
10, Zulu - 86




1. Mohaymen - 115
2. Zulu 111
3. Destin 110
4. Shaqaf 110
5. Danzing Candy 110
6. J.R.'s Holiday 109
7. Don't Be So Salty 108
8. Mor Spirit 108
9. Sudden Breaking News 108
10. Laoban 108
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 19, 2016
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 19th, 2016 at 12:34:19 PM permalink
The Asmussen entry in the Rebel is starting to tempt me. Probably a hazardous side-effect of squinting at it too much. But Keeneone would like the look of them; he'll know what I mean by that. Hint: both by Tapit, and carrying a certain distinctive Tapit feature.

This is probably the 2nd worst day of the year to try to use a restroom at a Las Vegas book. But if the urinal pace quits in the stretch and lugs out, it might be possible. Morning line: 18/1 to make it to a plumbing fixture.

Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...

...Equibase gave him a figure of 110, significantly higher than Beyer's 100....

...<SNIP>...

That isn't how I'd look at them. More on that later.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 20th, 2016 at 1:13:05 AM permalink
[Restated since the site won't allow adding to the post above through an edit.]
Quote: lilredrooster


...<SNIP>...

...Equibase gave him a figure of 110, significantly higher than Beyer's 100....

...<SNIP>...


That isn't how I'd look at them. More on that later.

EDIT/REPOST: And now, this is later.

1. Those numbers are not comparable because they are different scales which have nothing to do with each other. It is only useful to compare figures using the same methodology and scale. To say the Equibase figure is "significantly higher" because it is "110" vs. a "100" in an entirely different measuring method is similar to saying that someone who is 6 feet tall is a puny little runt compared to someone measured at 160 centimeters, because "a hundred and sixty" is a much bigger number than "six." In fact it so happens that other things being equal (which they are not) an Equibase number of 110 would usually imply a horse ran slightly SLOWER according to Equibase than the FASTER number of 100 from Beyer. I'm not about to try to go into deconstructing each of them in detail to explain that, unless someone is prepared to pay me appropriately to do so, but just understand that fundamentally you're comparing unlike things and using different languages and units of measure and instruments in doing so.

2. While some others (notably Beyer as the most well known) employ a national team of people to make judgments to weigh the relative significance of a wide range of specific circumstances when arriving at a figure, the Equibase supposed "speed figures" by contrast are completely automated. They feed the purely numerical data they they already have in their industry record keeping database into a computer program they've written to generate their number. And nothing else. Which to me makes it complete crap, though opinions on the alleged value of doing that will vary. One thing about it that's certain, is that it is dirt cheap to do that, as in virtually zero cost for them to spit out, since they only have to write the program once and already have the raw data for other purposes. But if you decide you feel there is some value to be had in a 100% automated mechanism to generate totally judgment-free figures (which I would refer to as willfully premeditated 'brain death') understand that those numbers are still not intended by their creators to be considered equivalent or interchangeable.

Here's some of the same, but briefly stated in sunny language without my critical opinion:

Quote: Equinometry

Beyer Speed Figures are calculated by a team of horseplayers scattered across the United States.

Quote: Equinometry

Equibase Speed Figures were created by Equibase using a time-tested algorithm that takes subjectivity out of the process by allowing the computer to objectively assign the Speed Figures based on the data at hand.

Quote: Equinometry

From a sample of over 200 races I found there is about 5 points between Beyer and BRIS and 6 points between BRIS and Equibase. So for example a 100 Beyer would, on average, equal a 105 BRIS and a 111 Equibase.


http://www.equinometry.com/2013/04/28/speed-figures/#more-1969

[While I quoted and linked to that as a good overview IMO, unfortunately the author of the otherwise helpful descriptive piece then steps off a cliff & goes on to suggest that one could simply add or subtract a static number (i.e. 11 points between EQB & BSF) to make one into the other. There's a boatload of things wrong with that, and I would NOT do that. Otherwise, I think those who are new to the topic, and who want a very broad picture but don't want to invest much time digging into the details of the problem of time/speed, would probably find that page worth the quick read.]
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 20th, 2016 at 1:31:54 AM permalink


AWD's for the pedigrees of those that hit the board:

#4 - Cupid 7.2f

#10 - Whitmore 7.5f

#1 - Creator 7.8f
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 20, 2016
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 21st, 2016 at 4:16:52 AM permalink
Beyer has given Cupid a 95 in winning the Rebel. I think this may turn out to be a productive race, and not necessarily just for the winner as some of these adolescent colts continue to develop. I haven't dug into it enough on trip & pace & in relation to other quality two turn races on the card that afternoon to arrive at a definite settled opinion, but at first glance that BSF looks a little low to me. He's given the Azeri, a Grade 2 for more mature fillies and mares, an 89. The Grade 3 Razorback for mature stakes males was given a 92. Both were at the same distance and run within ninety minutes of the Rebel with no obvious change in conditions at the track, and both those figures are on the light side for the fully mature graded stakes competitors such as Untapable (2nd in the Azeri by a hard fought neck) and Upstart (1st in the Razorback by a decisive length).

Rebel chart

Azeri chart



Razorback chart


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