Super Bowl 2016 Props
Quote: ThatDonGuyThe one underdog prop I like is the +130 that the last play of the game will not be a QB rush (most likely taking a knee at the end of the game, although a QB sneak/draw in OT would count as well). I wouldn't be that sure that the team that is behind wouldn't have the ball at the end of the game. If you're looking for a little more money, I'd consider the +200 that at least one quarter will be scoreless.
But how often does the team behind have the ball and turn it over on downs with 10 or 20 seconds left.
There are basically 3 scenarios to end a game
1. team behind goes for touchdown on final seconds.
2. team ahead kneels
3. game winning field goal.
With the 1st one, there is still that chance to have a few seconds left on the clock. I would be interested to see data on this.
Quote: JohnzimboThe one prop bet I see every year where the line just seems "off" to me is the shortest TD of the game over/under 1.5 yards. Seems to me that more games by far do NOT have a TD made from the 1 yard line, so I am tempted to bet over but have no data to support my hunch.
Anyone got data on this?
It depends on the line of course. If it is under -2500 then it may not matter.
Quote: JohnzimboThe one prop bet I see every year where the line just seems "off" to me is the shortest TD of the game over/under 1.5 yards. Seems to me that more games by far do NOT have a TD made from the 1 yard line, so I am tempted to bet over but have no data to support my hunch.
Anyone got data on this?
Yes! Back in 2007 I tracked the yardage of every field goal and touchdown. Out of 491 touchdowns, 2 were 0 yards and 70 were 1 yard. So, the probability of any given touchdown being 1.5 yards or less could be estimated as 72/491=14.66%.
In this game the over/under is 45. Let's assume 3.5 field goals for 45-3*3.5=34.5 touchdown points, or 4.93 touchdowns.
The probability all of them will be over 1.5 yards is (1-0.1466)^4.93 = 45.77%. Thus, the probability of one or more less then 1.5 yards is 54.23%.
The South Point casinos put that one at -115 both ways. So, the expected return on the "yes" is 2.15*.5423/1.15 =1.0139. In other words, a 1.39% advantage. Personally, I perceive much greater edges on other props, so leave this one alone. In fact, I now leave everything alone with the word "yards" in it. Maybe I'm missing out on some good bets, but it is time consuming to analyze each one.
Punts under 10 -- Bet at -140 or better.
At 5dimes: 627 CAR total punts made/DEN total punts made Under 10 +115*
Quote: RigondeauxThank you.
Punts under 10 -- Bet at -140 or better.
At 5dimes: 627 CAR total punts made/DEN total punts made Under 10 +115*
You're welcome. I just checked and it is -115, which is still a great bet.
How many wings will Buffalo Wild Wings Sell on Super Bowl Day?
Over 12 million -120
Under 12 million -120
How many times will Cam Newton do the Open Shirt Superman motion during the game?
Over 2.5 EVEN
Under 2.5 -140
Will Peyton Manning be seen crying at any point during the entire Broadcast?
Yes +600
No -1200
Will there be an earthquake during the game?
Note: Announcer must indicate there was during live broadcast from kickoff until final whistle.
Yes +1000
Will the Panthers player who scores their first TD give the football to a Boy or Girl?
Boy -200
Girl +150
Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the post game interview?
Yes +500
No -1000
What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?
Orange+125
Blue+300
Clear+400
Yellow+400
Red+600
Green+1000
Purple+1000
Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first?
Team+200
God+200
City/Fans+600
Coach+750
Family+1500
Does not Mention Anyone above+225
I have to say that the earthquake bet may be funny but at 10 to 1 is one of the worst bets I've ever seen. I have lived in in the LA area for 25 years and can say that I've felt earthquakes about once every two or three years.
I think it would be generous to say an earthquake is felt at any given spot on the California coast once every two years and four hours for the entire game. That would make the chance of an earthquake in this time 1 in 4,380. That results in a house edge of 99.75%.
Quote: sabreI'd think family would be higher for mvp. I guess Newton and Manning never thank their families first?
Without knowing anything about the players, I would bet on "team," mainly because that is what I would do.
heck, what's the best value bet right now?
Quote: ThatDonGuyOf the "funny" props, I think the best bet is No on "Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the postgame show?". If Denver wins, he might do it during the victory parade (and if he's the MVP, the CBS presenter there will probably ask him if he's retiring, and he'll probably say something like, "I need to talk it over with the team and my family") ; if Carolina wins, he'll probably want to hold a press conference so his family can be next to him when he announces it.
if any starter wins the Superbowl, why would they retire?
they've just shown they're good enuf to win the #1 prize thus good enuf to play another season.
Going out on top is one of the hardest, yet best things a professional athlete could do. Pretty much none of them do it. They degrade their legacy by playing 1-2 years past their prime and not playing as well as everyone remembers them... Then they get remembered how they last played.Quote: 100xOddsif any starter wins the Superbowl, why would they retire?
they've just shown they're good enuf to win the #1 prize thus good enuf to play another season.
Wiz, thanks for all of your efforts with the prop bets! I love prop bets, especially when you say it's great for the player =P. It'll give me a bit of an extra boost in my cheering for the game.
Someone from Bovada must be monitoring the site =P... their No Safety / No Overtime lines are -1000 and -1500 respectively.
edit - How comes last year you had the No Safety and No Overtime "fair lines" at -1508 and -1385 respectively, but this year they're -800?
I would be comfortable betting on "clear" for the color of the liquid on the winning coach, only because water has to be more commonly found in the sideline coolers than colored drinks.
Panther's first TD ball going to a boy is a near lock. Can you lay "Girl"?
Quote: Ayecarumba
Panther's first TD ball going to a boy is a near lock. Can you lay "Girl"?
Not legally.
Seems pretty dumb to me to hang up a sign saying "no $20-$500 bettors" during the week of the Super Bowl, but maybe they know something I don't.
Quote: RomesHow comes last year you had the No Safety and No Overtime "fair lines" at -1508 and -1385 respectively, but this year they're -800?
-800 is not the fair line but what I recommend you hold out for. No safety would be a good bet at -1400, but why pay that when you can find -800 out there fairly easily.
- Number of letters in the last name of the first player to score a touchdown:
Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120
I put the under fair at +122. - Weight of first player to score a touchdown:
Over 227.5 -115
Under 22.7 -115 - Will the first TD scorer have the letter "S" in his last name:
Yes -140
No +110
I put the NO fair at +113.
Note: The Golden Nugget made the very annoying grammatical mistake of using the pronoun "their" instead of "his" on this one. - Who will score more points: Players who last name begin with the Letters in "Fremont Street" or all other players?
Fremont Street -140
All other +110
Note: This one started at -115 both ways.
I put "Fremont Street" fair at -121.
Quote: HittemYou'll be able to find -600 on Sunday for no safety. Books will be begging for someone to come in and lay it to offset the risk of the small touristy bets on safety. Be patient.
I think that is a bit overconfident. Maybe some book will drop that low, but I think most will be -700 or -800.
I assume they did their homework and took in account the key scoring players names and weigh? Obviously certain players are much more likely to score than others.Quote: WizardThe Golden Nugget has some silly props.
- Number of letters in the last name of the first player to score a touchdown:
Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120
I put the under fair at +122.- Weight of first player to score a touchdown:
Over 227.5 -115
Under 22.7 -115- Will the first TD scorer have the letter "S" in his last name:
Yes -140
No +110
I put the NO fair at +113.
Note: The Golden Nugget made the very annoying grammatical mistake of using the pronoun "their" instead of "his" on this one.- Who will score more points: Players who last name begin with the Letters in "Fremont Street" or all other players?
Fremont Street -140
All other +110
Note: This one started at -115 both ways.
I put "Fremont Street" fair at -121.
Quote: RomesGoing out on top is one of the hardest, yet best things a professional athlete could do.
Westgate:
No safety -900
No OT -1000
Wynn:
no safety -800
No OT: -900
Mirage:
no safety -850
No OT -1000
Treasure island:
no safety -800
no OT -800
Harrah's:
no safety -750
no OT -900
Stratosphere:
No safety -1200
No OT -1200
I ended up taking no safety at -750 from Harrah's and no OT at -800 at treasure island. Happy bridge jumping.
Quote: ewoks4lifeFor those interested I spent a lot of time today shopping for the best current no OT/no safety lines on the strip.
Good stuff, thank you, and welcome to the forum!
Those are similar to lines I've seen. I had my runner bet the no overtime at TI yesterday. Hoping to still get more down if the lines get better. I hate to lay more than 8 to 1 on either of them.
YIKES!! Let me edit that for you.Quote: WizardI had my runner bet the no overtime at TI yesterday. .
I bet the no overtime at TI yesterday.
Quote: AxelWolfYIKES!! Let me edit that for you.
I bet the no overtime at TI yesterday.
What's the big deal? Anybody serious about sports betting employs at least one beard.
Quote: 100xOddsif any starter wins the Superbowl, why would they retire?
they've just shown they're good enuf to win the #1 prize thus good enuf to play another season.
IIRC, John Elway's second Super Bowl win (and he was Denver's starting QB at the time) was his final game.
Four consecutive scores +250 (fair at +231)
Field goals under 3.5 -135 (While I like this one, I've seen -125 at other places)
First score touchdown -150 (fair at -165, but I've seen it as low as -130)
No safety -900 (again, I like it, but I've seen -750 and -800 at lots of places)
No overtime -1000 (I just got -800 at the TI and -900 is easy to find)
It's actually a combination of political correctness and a recently accepted style.Quote: WizardWill the first TD scorer have the letter "S" in his last name:
Note: The Golden Nugget made the very annoying grammatical mistake of using the pronoun "their" instead of "his" on this one.
"Their" is now acceptable as a singular pronoun in place of "his or her."
Does the prop require that the earthquake be felt at the stadium? What if there is a magnitude 8 earthquake somewhere in the world that the announcers mention?Quote: AyecarumbaThere will be an earthquake during the game. There are little quakes in the area all the time. Whether one that occurs during the broadcast is big enough for the "announcer" to mention it, is the real question. What if the Spanish language announcer says something, but the English announcer doesn't? What if the announcer says, "The crowd leaving when Beyonce took the stage was so big, it felt like an earthquake"? Will they pay?
Not in the coolers that are usually set aside just for this purpose. "Clear" is included because, in addition to the possibility of a water-filled cooler being used, there are flavors of Gatorade that are clear, like Frost Glacier Cherry.|Quote: AyecarumbaI would be comfortable betting on "clear" for the color of the liquid on the winning coach, only because water has to be more commonly found in the sideline coolers than colored drinks.
Quote: Wizard
First score touchdown -150 (fair at -165, but I've seen it as low as -130)
I think you said -140 or better on the sp50 site but maybe I am mistaken. I put in a bet last night at -150. Also carolina scoring a td in the first quarter at even money, was +105 on the board but odds got lowered at the counter.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIt's actually a combination of political correctness and a recently accepted style.
"Their" is now acceptable as a singular pronoun in place of "his or her."
I would argue it is just a commonly made grammatical error. Who is the judge of what is acceptable? In Spanish there is such an authority, but what about English?
Quote: AyecarumbaWhether one that occurs during the broadcast is big enough for the "announcer" to mention it, is the real question. What if the Spanish language announcer says something, but the English announcer doesn't? What if the announcer says, "The crowd leaving when Beyonce took the stage was so big, it felt like an earthquake"? Will they pay?
I don't know. What if one of them brings up the earthquake in Taiwan for some reason.
Quote:Not in the coolers that are usually set aside just for this purpose. "Clear" is included because, in addition to the possibility of a water-filled cooler being used, there are flavors of Gatorade that are clear, like Frost Glacier Cherry.|
I could picture arguments on this one.
Porzingiz Points + Rebounds vs. Denver Points + 1.5 : Line is 20. So 21.5 Porz is right there with his mean results, but not his median., especially in recent games.
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3102531/kristaps-porzingis
Which will be more. Combined points in Ireland Whales rugby or longest TD -1.5.
Longest TD Over is 43.5 -120. Whales/Ireland total is 34.5
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/ireland-v-wales/total-points.
Lifelong Broncos fan here, attended college in Indiana from 2002-2006, hatred for Peyton was brewed during that time.
What made it especially sting is that Jake Plummer is one of my favorite players of all time; he is an Idaho kid. True story; a guy from my church played soccer at Capitol High School where Jake went. Guy was the kicker on the football team as well, and missed an extra point in the state championship their senior year that would have tied the game (I think, might have won it). Anyway, Jake the snake only won state once, but would have won twice had my buddy not missed that extra point. Also kicker dude didn't ask anyone to sign his yearbook except Jake Plummer. I hope he sold it by now, that stock is only going down.
Anyway, trying to run down scenarios for tomorrow...
Ideal scenario for me is Broncos win in spite of Peyton. He throws a pick or fumbles but their defense comes through and somehow stops Cam (not likely).
Runner up is he stinks up the joint and they lose on his back. I would prefer this to scenario three...
He plays well and they win.
That's right, my hate for Peyton is so great I would prefer that my team lose to him playing well and getting accolades in a win. Truly I have been blinded by hate.
I guess if he plays well and they lose that's just *** frosting on the **** sundae.
Quote: AcesAndEights
Ideal scenario for me is Broncos win in spite of Peyton. He throws a pick or fumbles but their defense comes through and somehow stops Cam (not likely).
This is my hope too. Bet a few Broncos for MVP. My thinking is Manning isn't close to their best player and this is widely known even among idiots like sports writers. Yet he is a big fav to win MVP if the Broncos do win.
He's the sentimental favorite, but will they really give it to him if he has 190 yards with a pick and a TD in a 20-17 win?
I have $100 on Broncos but I am not sure I am the SHARP money. +51/2.Quote: WizardThe buzz is that all the sharp money is on Denver.
Quote: RigondeauxThis is my hope too. Bet a few Broncos for MVP. My thinking is Manning isn't close to their best player and this is widely known even among idiots like sports writers. Yet he is a big fav to win MVP if the Broncos do win.
He's the sentimental favorite, but will they really give it to him if he has 190 yards with a pick and a TD in a 20-17 win?
As someone who favors logic and rules, I really hope they don't. But I bet in that exact situation they would. Basically the winning team's QB always has the inside track on the MVP if they don't totally suck, and in Peyton's case it would be considered a sign of "respect" or some other BS.
Quote: AcesAndEights
Welcome back!
Quote: WizardThe buzz is that all the sharp money is on Denver.
This would make me optimistic as a Denver fan, but of course if they cover the spread and lose it doesn't really matter to me.
Quote: MidwestAPWelcome back!
Thanks man! I haven't placed a wager since February but I got Eliot's book for Christmas so I figured I should start re-integrating myself into the gambling community :). I haven't started reading it yet.
Quote: AcesAndEightsAs someone who favors logic and rules, I really hope they don't. But I bet in that exact situation they would. Basically the winning team's QB always has the inside track on the MVP if they don't totally suck, and in Peyton's case it would be considered a sign of "respect" or some other BS.
The winning QB is usually the "default" choice, especially if it's considered a "team effort", but in a 20-17 win with one TD pass by the winners, they might look to the defense. Also, multiple MVPs in the same game have happened.
No safety -800
No overtime -1000
Perhaps you should pop into the Concealed Carry thread and give us an update on what you ultimately decided to do. And welcome back.
Yes -160 at 5dimes
No +200 Bovada
You could also get "no earthquake" at -2000. Now -4500.
Quote: ThatDonGuyThe winning QB is usually the "default" choice, especially if it's considered a "team effort", but in a 20-17 win with one TD pass by the winners, they might look to the defense. Also, multiple MVPs in the same game have happened.
Yeah. The most common alternatives to QB have been WR or a defensive player. RBs rarely win and Denver splits RB duties. Thomas has been under performing and I read he will be guarded by Josh Norman. So I took Sanders and each of the Denver MLBs (Marshall and Traveon.)
Pretty much recreational bets. I hope they are slightly +ev. But even more than that, I hope they win!
Will there be a successful 2 point conversion? Yes @ +260 for $50
I would have preferred to wager a 2 point conversion attempt at lower odds, but I did not see that option at the 2 places I looked.
I just didn't see much that I really wanted to wager on, nor do I even have much of a preference on rooting.
