Super Bowl 2016 Props
Quote: kewljMy only wager on the game.
Will there be a successful 2 point conversion? Yes @ +260 for $50
I would have preferred to wager a 2 point conversion attempt at lower odds, but I did not see that option at the 2 places I looked.
I just didn't see much that I really wanted to wager on, nor do I even have much of a preference on rooting.
Well, at least one of us will win the yes/no 2pt conversion wager.
Interesting fact Carolina RUN defense is 16th, gives up 112 yards a game. Plus many teams stop running when behind.
Now add in this fact. In the last 20 games where Denver gained 100 yards running ( as a team ) they are 19 and 1.
Probably because of two factors. A rested Denver defense and Peyton having 3rd and 3 or 4 , at which he remains a master at converting to a first down.
I have a 100% success rate on this prop (over an extensive two year data set of betting it). The sharp money is definitely on tails, baby. Plus, it is quickly out of the way so I can count my riches without having to watch any of the damn thing, and can move on to what I've stored on the DVR until it is well and truly over & becoming somewhat safe to leave the house, about 12 hours or so later. Or about another 48 hours past that if I should happen to want to wait 'till they've hauled away the bodies & cleaned up most of the mess, which I do.
I have $10 on tails as a pure entertainment play. Tails never fails. Except 50% of the time.
Quote: DrawingDeadTails -105
I have a 100% success rate on this prop (over an extensive two year data set of betting it). The sharp money is definitely on tails, baby. Plus, it is quickly out of the way so I can count my riches without having to watch any of the damn thing, and can move on to what I've stored on the DVR until it is well and truly over & becoming somewhat safe to leave the house, about 12 hours or so later. Or about another 48 hours past that if I should happen to want to wait 'till they've hauled away the bodies & cleaned up most of the mess, which I do.
Going to have to ride your coat tails next year.
Carolina called tails.
It was tails.
Nat'l Anthem prop; when does the clock stop? As soon as she took a breath after "brave"? Or once she was done with her little coda for the fly-by? She sang it slowly enough it almost had to be "over" whatever fair value was for the timing.
Quote: beachbumbabsSo, props: The coin's gold side was designated heads, silver side tails.
Carolina called tails.
It was tails.
Nat'l Anthem prop; when does the clock stop? As soon as she took a breath after "brave"? Or once she was done with her little coda for the fly-by? She sang it slowly enough it almost had to be "over" whatever fair value was for the timing.
I was wondering the same. Was curious when the official time stopped. It was almost like she wanted it to be over.
Ewww I bet you no safety people had a heart stopping moment there.
Immediately thought of the wiz banging head against table.
Quote: 100xOddsLol.. thought 1st score was a safety. (It was qb fumble and defense td.)
Immediately thought of the wiz banging head against table.
That was not the first score
Quote: RSI'm down $2.25 for in-game betting. %#$&%>!!!!
I'm up $280, but waiting on the other bet to resolve. (For less than that, so a winning year for me. Yay!)
Quote: RSI'm down $2.25 for in-game betting. %#$&%>!!!!
Bet 1k on the next play is a run, that should get you back to even.
Quote: GWAEWizards stomach is now in his throat after that 3rd down play.
Damn, that was close.
Ok now parlay again and you will be up $10
Quote: HowManyDamn, that was close.
I didn't think he would get sacked but I was waiting for a holding penalty in the endzone.
Quote: GWAEWizards stomach is now in his throat after that 3rd down play.
Yup. I almost got paid again. Almost. (I'm sure I'm a drop in the bucket on it for him, but it's the principle of the thing.)
Congrats to Peyton and the Denver Defense.
Safety NO -800 - win
2pt conv NO -380 - lose
Punts UNDER 10 -115 - lose
DEN scores every quarter NO -360 - lose
A sample size of three years is nothing, but it's still pretty discouraging.
I'll probably still bet no-safety no-OT no-2pt next year. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result... but then, the definition of the Gambler's Fallacy is conducting independent trials over and over and expecting correlated results. So I guess I'm either insane or a sucker.
Quote: kewljAlthough I was lucky enough to win my small prop bet (2pt conv), I am guessing the sportsbooks did very well on this game.
Yep. Sportsbooks generally want three things:
1) Favorite to win straight up.
2) Underdog to cover the spread.
3) Under the total.
2 out of 3 ain't bad.
Peyton was a class act at the end. He knows damn well that he is done, but wouldn't announce that and take away from his teammates. Bravo Peyton.
Not exactly impressive numbers by Peyton. 141 yards passing, 2 turnovers. BUT, he managed the game for the most part and I give him credit for that. Plus he threw that 2 pt conversion which won me $130 :)
I don't mean to go negative because Cam Newton had a great year. I suspect he will be back in the Superbowl before long. BUT, how could he not dive for that fumble with 3 minutes left? His team down by 6 points, if Denver recovers the game is over....even if they only kick a field goal and go up by 9 (more than 1 score). I mean, maybe he thought there would be a scrum and the ball would come bouncing out, but it just appeared that he didn't want to dive into the pile (when it actually looked like he had a really good chance to get to the ball first). I hope it was just a bad decision, rather that what it looked like.
But I had a very enjoyable superbowl. Besides winning my small prop bet and winning $130, we rolled the big screen out back and watched the game by the pool (70 degrees here in Vegas), with a halftime dip in the hot tub. My Brother cooked some steaks on the grill in the second half and it was just a nice relaxed afternoon/evening with my housemates.
Quote: Rigondeaux
CJ Anderson long recept: under 8.5 -110 W
Daniels u 2.5 rec. +125 W
Daniels u 33 rec yards -110 W
Miller u 3 tackles -110 L
Tolbert over 9.5 rush yd -110 W
Funchess u 26.5 rec yard -110 L
D Thomas u 65.5 rec y -110 W
D Thomas u 5.5 rec -110 W
E Dickerson u 7.5. rec yar -110 W
E Sanders Rec yards over 69.5 -110 W
Sanders long rec ov 26.5 -120 L
V Davis rec yar u 5.5 -140 W
9-3 unless I'm mistaken. Still not sure how I did on all bets. Lost that Porzingis one though.
Edit: Looks like 0-2 on these, which I believed to be better bets.
Quote: RigondeauxSome last minute ones at Will Hill. Both were -110 earlier.
Porzingiz Points + Rebounds vs. Denver Points + 1.5 : Line is 20. So 21.5 Porz is right there with his mean results, but not his median., especially in recent games.
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3102531/kristaps-porzingis
Which will be more. Combined points in Ireland Whales rugby or longest TD -1.5.
Longest TD Over is 43.5 -120. Whales/Ireland total is 34.5
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/ireland-v-wales/total-points.
Quote: ThatDonGuyThe one underdog prop I like is the +130 that the last play of the game will not be a QB rush (most likely taking a knee at the end of the game, although a QB sneak/draw in OT would count as well). I wouldn't be that sure that the team that is behind wouldn't have the ball at the end of the game. If you're looking for a little more money, I'd consider the +200 that at least one quarter will be scoreless.
Of the "funny" props, I think the best bet is No on "Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the postgame show?". If Denver wins, he might do it during the victory parade (and if he's the MVP, the CBS presenter there will probably ask him if he's retiring, and he'll probably say something like, "I need to talk it over with the team and my family") ; if Carolina wins, he'll probably want to hold a press conference so his family can be next to him when he announces it.
The last play was a pass, and, just like I thought, when he was asked about retiring - twice - he gave one of those "I'll have to think it over" answers. However, there were no scoreless quarters.
Actually, I'm not 100% sure about that last play, although since there was only one second left, I'm not sure if Carolina would have been allowed to get a play off without being called for not having the players set for one second before the snap. The referee said that the clock would start on his whistle, but CBS was showing a full-screen graphic of Manning stats and then cut to the head coach coming onto the field.
Also, the winning Gatorade color was orange, and I have a feeling there was a cooler with blue Gatorade in it on the Carolina side set aside just in case the Panthers won. Wasn't there a time when the NFL mandated Powerade coolers for this sort of thing?
Anybody have a prop on the over/under on the most bench press reps of 225 pounds at the upcoming NFL Combine? Is this the year somebody does 50?
And how about one on how many Sunday afternoon doubleheaders don't air in San Francisco because either the Raiders or 49ers have a home game scheduled on the one-game network (excluding week 17, as that may be affected by an NFL waiver)?
Quote: kewljBoth times that Peyton was asked, he mentioned drinking a lot of budweiser tonight. Lol. Peyton doesn't seem like a budweiser kind of guy. Is there a budweiser endorsement that I am not familiar with? :)
Maybe the ink is still drying on that deal. "Peyton, if you win the Superbowl, we'll pay you Double, no Triple, your endorsement base rate."
I know nothing about it. :)
Quote: kewljBoth times that Peyton was asked, he mentioned drinking a lot of budweiser tonight. Lol. Peyton doesn't seem like a budweiser kind of guy. Is there a budweiser endorsement that I am not familiar with? :)
Active NFL players can't endorse alcohol companies on air, not matter how much they might like a beer after a big win.
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/peyton-manning-retirement-budweiser-super-bowl-50-win-denver-broncos-020716
Peyton about to retire, I think.
Quote: beachbumbabsNat'l Anthem prop; when does the clock stop? As soon as she took a breath after "brave"? Or once she was done with her little coda for the fly-by? She sang it slowly enough it almost had to be "over" whatever fair value was for the timing.
From the start of the first note to the end of the last note (the second time she sang "Brave") was 2:22 according to my DVR.
Quote: WizardI did awful. My apologies to all who followed my advice.
at least you won no safety.
but I bet the 3 times that the Broncos have come close to a safety must have made u mash your teeth.
Quote: WizardI did awful. My apologies to all who followed my advice.
Awww, Mike. Sorry. Thought you were all over no safety/no OT and came out well.
Quote: kewljAlthough I was lucky enough to win my small prop bet (2pt conv), I am guessing the sportsbooks did very well on this game.
Congrats to Peyton and the Denver Defense.
Feels so good man, to see my favorite team get their 3rd ring. And all 3 in my lifetime. Truly I am #blessed.
Denver's D just, oh man. That was just a total domination. I can't believe they were able to get to Cam so consistently, and not give up big lanes for him to run easily. The whole unit just played well as a whole. The outside guys (Miller, Wolfe, Ware) got most of the stats but the interior lineman kept those gaps sealed and the DBs covered well too. Just an absolute domination.
The offense, sucked, but did enough to win. Wooo. Special teams pitched in too; McManus was my early pick for MVP.
Quote: WizardI did awful. My apologies to all who followed my advice.
Wiz, let me just say, to keep your head up. These kinds of prop bets are high variance, and you had a bad run with the safeties, and today you had a bunch of the smaller "no" bets go bad. But I for one am confident you're making and advising the correct mathematical plays. It just takes a long time for once-a-year events like this to accrue a decent sample size. I'm confident your bets are the right plays. Just got to stick with it and bet an appropriate amount of your bankroll.
Quote: WizardI did awful. My apologies to all who followed my advice.
Hey you offer the analysis for free, we make the decision to put money or not. I for one really enjoyed the appearance on the GWaE podcast.
An espn reporter on Twitter quoting an MGM boss: "Von Miller winning the MVP crushed us." Multiple six-figure loss on Super Bowl MVP for MGM. Small winner, overall.
I got the wrong non-Manning Broncos. Looked at Miller but he was about 15-1 and I wanted more like 25-1.
I very strongly doubt that Cam just didn't feel like going for the ball. Could be a brain fart, or he was in a weird position or whatever. Not only is he a top level player in the Super Bowl. He is a guy who willingly takes a beating he could opt out of, probably costing himself some long term money.
Quote: WizardI did awful. My apologies to all who followed my advice.
Although it sucks what our actual results were, thanks for letting us in on the sharp bets.
My main concern is, did we get value?
Quote: Las Vegas Convention and Visitor AuthorityOn behalf of the southern Nevada hospitality industry and people of the area, we hope you've enjoyed your time with us. Soon many of our distinguished and valued guests will be feeling broke, hungover, and pissed-off. This is perfectly normal, and we at the LCVA want you to know that we understand and sincerely sympathize. Now please go home. Thank-you.
I'm just really curious how all of the prop bets panned out. I was watching the game and happy at the end because I thought you (and probably everyone else) made some money b/c the No Safety and No OT won =/. I always root for your bets =P.
I lost about 30% of money bet, or about $9,000. A least I didn't bet that much in total compared to other years.
It looked like there was almost a safety on Carolina's last play before the final punt. That would have really added insult to injury.
I agree on Cam, but Ginn Jr. clearly doesn't like to get hit. How many times did he step out of bounds space in front of him? Probably a smart move on his part, but it's hard to watch.Quote: RigondeauxI very strongly doubt that Cam just didn't feel like going for the ball. Could be a brain fart, or he was in a weird position or whatever. Not only is he a top level player in the Super Bowl. He is a guy who willingly takes a beating he could opt out of, probably costing himself some long term money.
Quote: JimRockfordI agree on Cam, but Ginn Jr. clearly doesn't like to get hit. How many times did he step out of bounds space in front of him? Probably a smart move on his part, but it's hard to watch.
Maybe it is a smart move in week 3 up 21 points against Jacksonville, but it is NOT a smart move in the super bowl!
Just as bothersome as Cam's not wanting to risk injury to dive on the football, was his pathetic slide earlier that really should have been marked short of a first down. He gave up at least 5 yards there.
I was driving in to work during the last 3 minutes of the game, and turned on the radio to hear that Carolina was punting down 14 with a few minutes to go! It is just amazing how simple minded an NFL coach can be. If the sole goal is to win the game, not punting may give you a 1/1000 chance to win, while punting maybe a 1/100,000 chance. But the coach must somehow be afraid that he will lose by more than 14 if he doesn't punt, which should of course not be a concern at all.
Final thought.... Why am I not smart enough to do my analysis, then bet against myself?
I saw the loose ball play again. Another Panther was diving for the ball. Maybe Cam thought the other guy would get it, and his diving would be more likely to dislodge the ball than to secure it.
Again, this is a guy who could decide to run less and prolong his career and probably improve his long term health. Instead, he chooses to take a beating all season to help his team. Why would you not give him the benefit of the doubt on a couple snap decisions?
And I "hate" Cam because he went to Auburn!
Quote: SOOPOOIf the sole goal is to win the game, not punting may give you a 1/1000 chance to win, while punting maybe a 1/100,000 chance.
I thought it was surprising too, but it's a huge long shot either way. Maybe the real odds support the decision. You can hope for a muffed punt, another long shot. But Denver was smart enough to not even field a return man.
Quote: Rigondeaux
I thought it was surprising too, but it's a huge long shot either way. Maybe the real odds support the decision. You can hope for a muffed punt, another long shot. But Denver was smart enough to not even field a return man.
The real odds favored not punting by some substantial multiple. Pro football coaches are not smart when it comes to understanding simple odds.
Quote: SOOPOOThe real odds favored not punting by some substantial multiple. Pro football coaches are not smart when it comes to understanding simple odds.
I recall they were in a 4th and 24 inside of their red zone. I think their options were to try to get a pass interference call (which was not going to happen on Peyton Manning night), or kick it and hope for a muffed reception or a fumble recovery after the kick. Given the yardage and their field position, I think Carolina made the right call of the crummy choices available.
Quote: AyecarumbaI recall they were in a 4th and 24 inside of their red zone. I think their options were to try to get a pass interference call (which was not going to happen on Peyton Manning night), or kick it and hope for a muffed reception or a fumble recovery after the kick. Given the yardage and their field position, I think Carolina made the right call of the crummy choices available.
Not even close. Denver had a coach with at least average intelligence who did not even place a receiver in position to muff. The NFL is littered with 24 yard pass receptions, hail Mary's, pass interference calls. No instances where a punt down two scores with that little time and timeout situation results in win. I would guess converting on 4th and 24 is at least 5%. Ask Aaron Rodgers.....
Quote: SOOPOOI would guess converting on 4th and 24 is at least 5%. Ask Aaron Rodgers.....
I would think it is above 10% mainly because of penalties.
Quote: DRichI would think it is above 10% mainly because of penalties.
Even more of a reason to go for it. The odds of a muff with no receiver is slightly higher than 18 yo's in a row, but still astronomical.
