So where's the Breeders Cup love?

The Breeders Cup Classic, which I assume will be American Pharoah's last race, is Saturday.

I'm surprised nobody has brought it up yet.

I'm a little surprised they only list 10 entries:
American Pharoah
Beholder
Effinex
Frosted
Gleneagles
Hard Aces
Honor Code
Keen Ice
Smooth Roller
Tonalist

Going to tune in to watch the 2 yr old colts go..... fella from Windsor J Paul Reddam seems to have a very nice one in there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiRSfBiHeEE

As of today I am going to bet Honor Code heavy, subject to change. I may share some picks Thursday/Friday night if I remember.

some pre weekend reading for you T bred lovers

http://horseplayersassociation.org/oct15issue.pdf

I have begun handicapping the Breeder's Cup. There are so many great runners in large fields. Weather has been pretty wet. Turf will probably be softer than most US turf courses (Euro invaders should like the conditions). The main track will probably still be fast. I have only completed 2 races;

Juvenile: Great field full of talent. 2 big preps were run over wet tracks (Champagne, Breeder's Futurity) which makes it difficult to gauge those performances.
1) Conquest Big E - Ready to roll, but 1 post not great.
2) Cocked and Loaded - Ready to roll, win over the track, and Rivelli does well with these.
3) Riker (Longshot) - Will be forwarded placed and is the mystery horse here. Include sired looks good for dirt.
-Nyquist is the the speed of the race and the one to run down. Beating Swipe 3 straight times in Graded Stakes has me questioning his class a little (or the class of fields he has been beating).

Classic:
1) American Pharoah - He is the controlling speed and speed has really carried well this Fall @ Keeneland (on the dirt). I am singling him right now in the multi-race wagers, which probably dooms him on Saturday. It will be the first time I have actually bet him to win. I will probably end up adding one or two when the dust settles. Maybe Keen Ice (he is really improving as he ages) or Tonalist. Honor Code has never run this far and I do not really know why...

I believe Pharoah is going to be way overbet creating an edge for those who would like to bet against him. He showed weakness his last race at the same distance against 3 year olds. Now he is facing much tougher competition from older horses.. I don't believe they're going to let him get away again with an easy early lead which has benefited him in most of his races. In the sprint, according to Andrew Beyer, the extremely impressive horse Runhappy, after breaking tardily and trailing several horses during the first sixteenth of a mile in the Phoenix stakes, also at Kenneland, accelerated and did the next furlong in a phenomenal 9.89 seconds.

Tune in today to catch a chunk of history. The way the race game is played today, it may be another generation before we see a Triple Crown winner.

BTW: Betting against Pharoah gets expansive.

Quote: Sabretom2

Tune in today to catch a chunk of history. The way the race game is played today, it may be another generation before we see a Triple Crown winner.

BTW: Betting against Pharoah gets expansive.

Did you bet Pharoah when he lost in the Travers at 0.35 to 1?

I'm sure you'll say that you did not bet on him. Like most guys that brag about picking a winner at 1:9 odds- they only bet when the horse wins.

Got a matchup bet going on AP @ -245 vs Tonalist (was available @ 5dimes)

from various markets the price should be between -320 to about -600 to beat tonalist,

also, I had a saver of 200 eachway on Tonalist @ +700 (win), and +175 (any 3 placings***)


***: I am not American and I can't remember if 3 placings is 'Show or Place'

Quote: coilman

Going to tune in to watch the 2 yr old colts go..... fella from Windsor J Paul Reddam seems to have a very nice one in there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiRSfBiHeEE

How did the Reddam horse race today? $11 winner I see

Quote: ksdjdj

***: I am not American and I can't remember if 3 placings is 'Show or Place'

In the USA, "place" is always in the first 2, and "show" is always in the first 3.

Questions: in the UK, (a) is there a "standard" for place (e.g. top 3), or does it depend on the race (I thought I read somewhere that the Grand National pays the top 4 on place bets), and (b) how do you determine what a horse pays to place if you bet with a bookmaker? I only ever see win odds.

I don't know the answer but that's a very good question because if the correct answer is they are going pay the track's payout then if you wanted to plunge on a place or show bet in a small pool then you wouldn't be shooting yourself in the foot. I'm guessing that that is what you were thinking when you asked the question. I'm also guessing that a bookie would have a limit on how much he would let you plunge on a place or show bet. Of course a person could use several different bookies. My last guess is that bookies are going to be wise to a person doing this and may refuse the action. A person can do the same thing with overseas online books that do not send the bets into the track's pool. But I believe most of them have rather small allowable maximum bets on horse racing.. On the other hand many give generous rebates.

I think you misunderstood the question. I'm talking about going to, say, Epsom and placing a bet with a bookmaker in (I believe it's called) "the ring" and/or "the enclosure". I have seen win odds posted on their boards, but if you make a bet to place, what odds do you get?

I guess I did misunderstand. I was referring to a strategy of comparing pools while considering the win pool as the efficient one. If the strong horse is light in the place or show pool you might have an excellent bet, with of course, much less risk. At a little harness track I used to go to, Rosecroft, now almost completely out of business, this would happen usually about two times a night where the place or show bet would pay almost as much and even sometimes more than the win bet. Of course, the pools were so small you couldn't make a big bet to really take advantage. It used to happen quite often at throroughbred tracks, even the big ones until Dr. Z wrote a book about it called "Beat the Racetrack." Now, that edge is pretty much gone. It does still happen sometimes at the very small tracks that have only a one month long meet per year which is like a county fair. It also still happens at some quarter horse tracks.

Quote: HowMany

Did you bet Pharoah when he lost in the Travers at 0.35 to 1?

I'm sure you'll say that you did not bet on him. Like most guys that brag about picking a winner at 1:9 odds- they only bet when the horse wins.

Yes I did, I lost. A rare thing when betting this horse.