NFL Superbowl Futures

I generally don't make futures bets so I am not familiar wwith the various outs available in Nevada. Do certain books have lower takeout on futures? A buddy of mine is looking at making a 5 figure bet on the Cowboys to win it all, Where can I steer him for more information. It has to be a licensed Nevada book because he works in the gaming industry.

Quote: DRich

I generally don't make futures bets so I am not familiar wwith the various outs available in Nevada. Do certain books have lower takeout on futures? A buddy of mine is looking at making a 5 figure bet on the Cowboys to win it all, Where can I steer him for more information. It has to be a licensed Nevada book because he works in the gaming industry.

Book it yourself, will be money in the bank... the Cowboys ain't winning the superbowl this season.

With a single large bet, I'd shop around for the best line, the over round on futures like this is high at all the books.

Cesspit is right, the rates might vary significantly. Make sure to shop around.

Might I also recommend you take a look online. I was going to do a similar thing last year, but the odds I found online online absolutely dwarfed the odds the casinos were giving me... Like +800 online and +500 on the strip. I wasn't dedicated enough to check elsewhere and didn't make the bet (thankfully, would have been on the seahawks).

I would tell your friend to keep his money and not throw it away, but yes, in futures bets, just like normal spread or money line bets, different families of sports books will vary a bit in the odds they are giving for futures bets. IMO the Cowboys are a classic team to stay away from. It seemed last season that half of that team had what I would consider a career year like Romo, Murray and Bryant. Those teams seldom can duplicate that the following year because all three players can't have another career year. Couple that with the fact that Murray is gone and they haven't adequately replaced him, I would be more shocked if Dallas made the playoffs than if they didn't

Quote: ahiromu

Cesspit is right, the rates might vary significantly. Make sure to shop around.

Might I also recommend you take a look online. I was going to do a similar thing last year, but the odds I found online online absolutely dwarfed the odds the casinos were giving me... Like +800 online and +500 on the strip. I wasn't dedicated enough to check elsewhere and didn't make the bet (thankfully, would have been on the seahawks).

Trying to kill the guy? Sweat the 'boys all season, win and then have to sweat being paid. Not worth it placing a bet this large online, IMO.

Reading comprehension must be a little off today. I specifically said the bet must be made in a licensed Nevada sports book.

Of course I will help him shop the line, I just wondered if there are any resources showing what the lines are at the different properties without visiting each.

Depending upon the odds, a bet on the Cowboys to win it all wouldn't necessarily be a BAD bet.

Of course, with 31 other teams in the league, it's easy to say they won't win it. And you will probably be right.

But I think they are right there with Green Bay and Seattle as the three top teams in the NFC. It won't be all that difficult to replace Murray. They were robbed last year in Green Bay, something a couple of my buddies who are die-hard Packer fans agree with. If they give Bryant the catch, they likely win that game and play Seattle for the NFC Championship. They had a good draft and should be much improved on defense. The Giants 6-10 last year and the Redskins even worse, at 4-12 so their only competition in the East should come from Philly.

I don't think they are still an 8-8 team that they were for three or four years running. I'd be VERY surprised if they didn't make the playoffs last year.

They WILL need another healthy year from Romo. In fact, their entire team, overall, was healthy last year. Romo had a very good year in 2014 and he probably do just as well, if not better, in 2015.

At Vegas Insider, the odds of them winning the SB are listed at 12 to 1. I don't think that's all that bad. Other online sports books (5 dimes) list them at 15 to 1. I certainly wouldn't place a large wager like that online, but 15 to 1 is great. I think they can easily win it all at least once in this spot, if the upcoming season played out 15 times.

Of course, before placing futures, always attempt to estimate or determine if you can get a better line parlaying the money yourself each game, on the moneyline, beginning with their first playoff game. Often times you can.

I do not know of any online resource that will list Nevada sportsbooks NFL futures. The Boys have been around 16-1 to win it all and about half that to win the NFC.

The timing of making the wager is something to think about. Waiting until late August, after a few pre-season games will allow for any injuries, suspensions, or other strange events to occur before the wager is made. Last year after week 1 (of the regular season) the Cowboys were 0-1 and you could find them @ 100-1 to win the Superbowl. I have heard of people waiting until during game 1 (Dallas at home vs NY Giants this year - SNF) to see how it goes before placing a futures wager.

If a friend asked me to help with placing a 10k future wager (on whatever team) this is one idea I would offer:
-8k bet on the best odds to be found (preferably in late August/early September)
-1.5k bet on the same team to win their conference championship.
-500 bet on another team winning the other conference championship.

The vig on these futures bets are terrible. I would advise your buddy to take that total amount he wanted to bet, divide that by a number around 6- and then bet that amount on the cowboys every week.

Quote: EdCollins

Depending upon the odds, a bet on the Cowboys to win it all wouldn't necessarily be a BAD bet.
Of course, with 31 other teams in the league, it's easy to say they won't win it. And you will probably be right.
But I think they are right there with Green Bay and Seattle as the three top teams in the NFC. It won't be all that difficult to replace Murray. They were robbed last year in Green Bay, something a couple of my buddies who are die-hard Packer fans agree with. If they give Bryant the catch, they likely win that game and play Seattle for the NFC Championship. They had a good draft and should be much improved on defense. The Giants 6-10 last year and the Redskins even worse, at 4-12 so their only competition in the East should come from Philly.
I don't think they are still an 8-8 team that they were for three or four years running. I'd be VERY surprised if they didn't make the playoffs last year.
They WILL need another healthy year from Romo. In fact, their entire team, overall, was healthy last year. Romo had a very good year in 2014 and he probably do just as well, if not better, in 2015.
At Vegas Insider, the odds of them winning the SB are listed at 12 to 1. I don't think that's all that bad. Other online sports books (5 dimes) list them at 15 to 1. I certainly wouldn't place a large wager like that online, but 15 to 1 is great. I think they can easily win it all at least once in this spot, if the upcoming season played out 15 times.
Of course, before placing futures, always attempt to estimate or determine if you can get a better line parlaying the money yourself each game, on the moneyline, beginning with their first playoff game. Often times you can.

Good stuff here EdCollins. Looking over their schedule, I can find 10 wins. Getting the AFC East and the NFC South in the schedule looks positive. Their division looks average. But they do get one game @ Green Bay and one against Seattle @ home. They also play New England in week five for Brady's return from suspension, unless his current appeal changes the # of games he will miss. The offense may slip a little (after a solid year) but the defense certainly looks improved on paper.
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The OP certainly knows that future wagers are more about entertainment and not an +ev play. The Wizard recently wrote about house edge on Superbowl futures:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/appendix/5/
That said, futures wagers can be fun (I personally like them), and some would even argue that is exactly what gambling is all about...

Quote: Keeneone

They also play New England in week five for Brady's return from suspension, unless his current appeal changes the # of games he will miss.

Note: Currently Brady is suspended for four games and yes, that may be reduced. However, if it is not, the Cowboys will get the Pats without Brady.

Reason: The Pats have an early bye week... Week #4! So if Brady misses four games, he will not play until Week #6. As you pointed out, the Cowboys host the Pats in Week #5.

Quote: Keeneone

I have heard of people waiting until during game 1 (Dallas at home vs NY Giants this year - SNF) to see how it goes before placing a futures wager.

Yes. However, note that this could backfire too. If Dallas is dominating New York, for example, the odds on Dallas theoretically would be reduced a bit, assuming the future odds are watched and modified this closely, during live games. I'm not so sure they are, especially in Week #1.

Quote: EdCollins

Note: Currently Brady is suspended for four games and yes, that may be reduced. However, if it is not, the Cowboys will get the Pats without Brady.

Reason: The Pats have an early bye week... Week #4! So if Brady misses four games, he will not play until Week #6. As you pointed out, the Cowboys host the Pats in Week #5.

Thanks for the correction.

Quote: DRich

Reading comprehension must be a little off today. I specifically said the bet must be made in a licensed Nevada sports book.

Of course I will help him shop the line, I just wondered if there are any resources showing what the lines are at the different properties without visiting each.

No I totally understood what you were saying.

Quote: DRich

Reading comprehension must be a little off today. I specifically said the bet must be made in a licensed Nevada sports book.

Of course I will help him shop the line, I just wondered if there are any resources showing what the lines are at the different properties without visiting each.

The short answer to the simple straightforward question you actually asked is: No.

There are some reasonably comprehensive sources for tracking daily lines on individual games, such as this one: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ but you'll find that they don't really do the same for futures. If you try the NFL futures tab on that VegasInsider link, for example, what they will give you is an offshore book that pays them for advertising, and even that may be a stale line that doesn't reflect current odds. Here's one from Dave Tulley that generally posts one set of Las Vegas futures lines (usually either from Wynn or Westgate) for some of the largest of the major sporting events occasionally, but don't count on him to update it often as lines move; on the Super Bowl his site is currently showing the Westgate NFL future line from about ten days ago: http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Odds_and_Ends.html

With only a moderate investment of shoe-leather wear & tear, you can do a pretty good job of shopping what are most likely to be the best available legal brick & mortar book futures by checking Westgate, Wynn, SouthPoint, and also one of the many William Hill locations around the valley ( http://www.williamhill.us/find-a-book ) if you don't have their mobile app & don't want to download it.* Some of the WmHill locations will be just a self-serve machine kiosk, but you can use them for checking this just as easily as at a full-service counter. And maybe add Cantor (multiple casino locations + an app) and/or Station Casinos if you want to get more thorough, though I usually wouldn't expect them to be better. If you want to get really hard-core about line shopping then make a stop at the dumpy little book at Jerry's Nugget, a scruffy joint on North Las Vegas Blvd that tends to specialize in being very competitive on price for sports bets. But if they quote the best line, don't be surprised if they don't want to take all or even most of your friend's five figure wager, or if they call for management approval first & possibly move the line to do so.

The lines quoted at Caesars & MGM properties are unlikely to be better than any of those above as they will generally have higher vig, and sometimes much higher.

*Since I have it right at hand, here's the current WmHill line for that from their app so you can compare what you find:

Seahawks 11/2
Patriots 10/1
Packers 6/1
Cowboys 12/1
Colts 6/1
Broncos 8/1
Ravens 15/1
Others quoted at > 20/1 up to 200/1

A little illustrative follow-up...

Quote: DrawingDead

...<SNIP>...

The lines quoted at Caesars & MGM properties are unlikely to be better than any of those above as they will generally have higher vig, and sometimes much higher.

*Since I have it right at hand, here's the current WmHill line for that from their app so you can compare what you find:

Seahawks 11/2
Patriots 10/1
Packers 6/1
Cowboys 12/1
Colts 6/1
Broncos 8/1
Ravens 15/1
Others quoted at > 20/1 up to 200/1

Since I just spent most of the day in a book at an MGM-Mirage Resorts property (not for THIS) I can put some flesh on those remarks from the sheet I have in front of me:

Quote: MGM Resorts International, Race & Sports

Seahawks 7/2
Patriots 8/1
Packers 5/1
Cowboys 8/1
Colts 6/1
[...]

...and as for the rest, not a single one is quoted as high as 200/1 and only two are in triple digits on their line. Obviously not a sensible option to consider for serious money for futures at a comparative payout of 8/1 vs. 12/1. And if anything Caesars Ent. builds in at least as much vig or more than MGM/Mirage for these. When it comes to most props & futures like this, the two big megalith resort chains are strictly a convenience for hotel guests to put fiddydollah on their beloved home team at whatever the price happens to be where they are shacked up without considering the odds line. So, you can safely skip the hassle of parking and hiking into about 80%+ of the Strip without a twinge of doubt about any potential for inadvertantly screwing your friend or yourself by skipping them for this purpose.