Will American Pharaoh win the Belmont Stakes?
Poll
 | 11 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 15 votes (45.45%) | ||
| | 2 votes (6.06%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 5 votes (15.15%) | ||
| No votes (0%) |
33 members have voted
Quote: Sabretom2If you're going to bet to win, you bet the horse you handicap to win. 3/5 or 12-1 it doesn't matter. AP should have gone off at 1/5. 3/5 was a value bet.
You picked a winner at 3/5.
Now, you should quit your job and bet horses for a living.
It's clear you have a gift.
Quote: Sabretom2If you're going to bet to win, you bet the horse you handicap to win. 3/5 or 12-1 it doesn't matter. AP should have gone off at 1/5. 3/5 was a value bet.
It does matter if the horse is 3/5 or 12/1. If you bet horses at 3/5 and you win 55% of your bets then you have lost in the long run. If you win 10% of your bets at 12-1 your a long term winner. Neither you nor anyone can say that AP was a fair value at 1/5. Its something that cannot be proven mathematically and is just a matter of opinion. Nonetheless, congratulations on your win. I'm happy for you. I'm not at all bitter.
Quote: HowManyYou picked a winner at 3/5.
Now, you should quit your job and bet horses for a living.
It's clear you have a gift.
Some how, I think you missed the point.
Quote: lilredroosterIt does matter if the horse is 3/5 or 12/1. If you bet horses at 3/5 and you win 55% of your bets then you have lost in the long run. If you win 10% of your bets at 12-1 your a long term winner. Neither you nor anyone can say that AP was a fair value at 1/5.
Perhaps, but I for one am a long-standing believer of this: all of the longshots have something in common - they pay zero to win when the heavy favorite wins.
Also, if you make 20 $5 bets at 3-5 and win 55% of those, and make $5 20 bets at 12-1 and win 10% of those, you're a long term winner (if I have this right: +33 for the 11 wins, -45 for the 9 losses, +120 for the 2 wins, -100 for the 10 losses = +8 overall). It's not just about betting favorites and longshots. Then again, the smart player also knows when to pass on a race altogether.
Quote: HowManyYou picked a winner at 3/5.
Now, you should quit your job and bet horses for a living.
It's clear you have a gift.
There's other ways to make money on AP. Take for example my pick-4 win today...
Quote: jeffwarren75In answering the posters question- yes
Good one. Now who do you like in last year's Superbowl? Lol.
What do you want want them to say?Quote: Sabretom2Looking to hear from the value betters.
Did you give us a legitimate reason it was or wasn't a good bet? How much did you claim to bet?
Had it won I wouldn't have said anything either. It's always easy to say it was a good or bad bet after the fact.
I usually don't even post about bets, wins/ losses or post jackpot pictures etc etc. I decided to post my bet about this, because everyone was talking about it. I got a better price than what was suggested by 2 people who's opinions I trust and have done well with their suggestions over all. I also knew people would want to buy some of my action. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZomwVcGt0LE
I was really hoping to find an arbitrage. Once I realized that wasn't going to happen, I sold some off to friends (suckers (-; ) and asked someone to lay the rest off, if they could find a good price, hopefully they did. I haven't talked to them yet, because I left phone in a friends car (common occurrence for me).
After I seen that it kept moving the wrong way. I said, I didn't know if I liked the bet anymore, but I have no clue about the horses so I didn't matter how I felt.
Good bets lose and bad bets win. There's nothing really to say about one single "value bet." What matters, is at the end of the year(s) is if you have had more good bets than bad bets.
PS I didn't even get to watch the race I missed it by a few minutes because I got stuck in traffic.
Quote: AxelWolf
Good bets lose and bad bets win. There's nothing really to say about one single "value bet." What matters, is at the end of the year(s) is if you have had more good bets than bad bets.
Words to live by, Axel....and we do. :)
Thanks.Quote: coilmanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctss9h26IqY
Kentucky Derby: Won, coming out of the 18th post position in a 20 horse field. (I hate the large fields and crowded conditions that the Derby allows. Obstacles that previous generation of triple crown horses did not face and need to overcome).
Preakness: Won in bad weather.
Belmont: Won, with the fastest time in 23 years, one of the fastest times ever posted, better than all but one triple crown winners (secretariat).
I really think in coming years, we may look back on this horse's performance in these 3 races as quite spectacular.
"In honor of American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown, the Total Rewards Visa Card Triple Crown Challenge will pay NBC for any fines levied by the FCC for airing Victor Espinoza's post-race obscenity."
Don't be surprised if NBC's Breeder's Cup coverage begins with an apology for airing the obscenity, and a promise that all further horse racing coverage would be on a five-second delay; that's exactly what they did with NASCAR when Dale Earnhardt Jr. swore on the air in a post-race interview.
Quote: FinsRuleI'm guessing I've watched more horse racing in the last 5 years than anyone else on this board. I only say that to preface my "Yes" vote. This is the perfect type of horse you want to have in the last leg of the triple crown. He has the most efficient stride many have ever seen. He is going to be in the lead running comfortably for 1 1/4 miles. A horse is going to have to have enough energy to catch him after running that distance.
He responds when asked. This is one of those "once in a generation" horses.
In the last 15 years, only Smarty Jones and Big Brown were anywhere near this level. Big Brown was on peds and Smarty Jones just got unlucky.
That being said, of course he can lose. He could stumble at the start, or he could simply hate Belmont. I guess Materiality could be in there just to bother him the whole trip. If he breaks clean and likes the track, he is going to win.
I have never bet against Pharoah, and I'm not going to start now.
But it's all about percentages. Pharoah at 1-9 is a bad bet. At 9-1 it's a great bet. If you gave me even odds on him, I'd bet yes.
I'll be singling him in the pick-4, and grab a few $2 souvenir win tickets. I won't be betting anything on that race.
Just wanted to bring back some previous posts :-)
Quote: artvandelayI bet 5k on AP on the nose. Chump change for WOV horse players (DD). I also know that it was a terrible bet as there was no value on AP........bahahahahaha
You realize the doubters on this site won't believe that without pictures.
Quote: kenarmanYou realize the doubters on this site won't believe that without pictures.
I give it about a 1/6 chance :-)
I don't doubt it. However only reporting wins after the fact is meaningless.Quote: kenarmanYou realize the doubters on this site won't believe that without pictures.
I bet 1500 sold $250 laid my friend laid off off 1k before the race. - approximately 250.
Quote: artvandelayI bet 5k on AP on the nose. Chump change for WOV horse players (DD). I also know that it was a terrible bet as there was no value on AP........bahahahahaha
Threads: 0
Posts: 25
yeah this guy sounds legit.
Quote: djatcThreads: 0
Posts: 25
yeah this guy sounds legit.
He's been here for a bit but is an infrequent contributor. Comments more on the horse stuff than other items.
Quote: AxelWolflaid my friend
What was his name? How much did u pay?
Looks like your fist suspension, you must quote my entire sentence.Quote: FunkyDoctorWhat was his name? How much did u pay?
Quote: djatcI'm just waiting for AP to turn into glue when is that happening?
Yeah, since he ran like an Egyptian someone can pull his brain thru his nose and put it on display at the Luxor. Wonder how many people that bet against him would like to see that?
Quote: lilredroosterDon't want to diminish the greatness of AP. He's a great champion. But to put Secretariat's legend in perspective: AP did it in 26.65. Secretariat did it in 2:24. Secretariat would have beaten him by 13 lengths.
If AP would have ran the Belmont 3 seconds faster, people would say the track was just running real fast that day and Secretariat is still better.
Quote: FinsRuleIf AP would have ran the Belmont 3 seconds faster, people would say the track was just running real fast that day and Secretariat is still better.
I don't claim to know a lot about horse racing. But it seems nobody seriously challenged AP in the Belmont, so he had nobody to chase down with him leading wire to wire, and I don't know how much a horse knows about how close they are. AP appeared to me to not really leg it out until the end of the backstretch, when he kind of laid his ears down and hit the gas; I just wonder how much more he might have had in the tank if he'd seen another horse near him to compete with. They were saying, personality-wise, AP is gregarious and almost arrogant, and I kind of think he might've had more if he'd had to really dig deep, but then Secretariat was faced with similar that-much-better than anybody issues; was he ever seriously challenged? It would've been an amazing matchup no matter which way it was.
Quote: beachbumbabsThey were saying, personality-wise, AP is gregarious and almost arrogant, and I kind of think he might've had more if he'd had to really dig deep, but then Secretariat was faced with similar that-much-better than anybody issues; was he ever seriously challenged?
Secretariat, like AP, had a loss early in his career. IIRC, the only Triple Crown winner not to have lost before the TC was Seattle Slew. (Affirmed lost two races to Alydar as a 2-year-old.)
Quote: beachbumbabsI don't claim to know a lot about horse racing. But it seems nobody seriously challenged AP in the Belmont, so he had nobody to chase down with him leading wire to wire, and I don't know how much a horse knows about how close they are. AP appeared to me to not really leg it out until the end of the backstretch, when he kind of laid his ears down and hit the gas; I just wonder how much more he might have had in the tank if he'd seen another horse near him to compete with. They were saying, personality-wise, AP is gregarious and almost arrogant, and I kind of think he might've had more if he'd had to really dig deep, but then Secretariat was faced with similar that-much-better than anybody issues; was he ever seriously challenged? It would've been an amazing matchup no matter which way it was.
Secretariat at his best would most certainly defeat American Pharoah. But I don't think you can just dismiss Pharoah by saying "he's no Secretariat". Let the rest of Pharoah's career play out first.
Quote: FinsRuleSecretariat at his best would most certainly defeat American Pharoah. But I don't think you can just dismiss Pharoah by saying "he's no Secretariat". Let the rest of Pharoah's career play out first.
Secretartiat got to run to heroic music which is a big advantage.
j/k
Quote: FinsRuleIf AP would have ran the Belmont 3 seconds faster, people would say the track was just running real fast that day and Secretariat is still better.
Nobody would say that and nobody has ever had a chance to say that. No horse at the Belmont Stakes has ever come with 2 seconds of Secretariat's record time. Another poster asked if Secretariat was ever challenged. Due to the jockey's strategy he was sometimes held back and didn't immediately go to the lead. But when asked (in the big races) he always blew past his rivals easily. He was the Babe Ruth of racing. A Babe Ruth whose accomplishments have not been diminished by cheaters.
