Will American Pharaoh win the Belmont Stakes?

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June 1st, 2015 at 4:46:05 PM permalink

One of my partners got it at +115 a few days ago.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

FinsRule

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June 1st, 2015 at 5:42:59 PM permalink

I'm guessing I've watched more horse racing in the last 5 years than anyone else on this board. I only say that to preface my "Yes" vote. This is the perfect type of horse you want to have in the last leg of the triple crown. He has the most efficient stride many have ever seen. He is going to be in the lead running comfortably for 1 1/4 miles. A horse is going to have to have enough energy to catch him after running that distance.

He responds when asked. This is one of those "once in a generation" horses.

In the last 15 years, only Smarty Jones and Big Brown were anywhere near this level. Big Brown was on peds and Smarty Jones just got unlucky.

That being said, of course he can lose. He could stumble at the start, or he could simply hate Belmont. I guess Materiality could be in there just to bother him the whole trip. If he breaks clean and likes the track, he is going to win.

I have never bet against Pharoah, and I'm not going to start now.

But it's all about percentages. Pharoah at 1-9 is a bad bet. At 9-1 it's a great bet. If you gave me even odds on him, I'd bet yes.

I'll be singling him in the pick-4, and grab a few $2 souvenir win tickets. I won't be betting anything on that race.

Johnzimbo

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June 1st, 2015 at 6:33:57 PM permalink

I made a big bet for me last year on Commissioner and he just lost by a nose at the wire. But I do think AP is a much better horse than California Chrome was. That said, I believe wagering against horses trying to win the triple crown is one of the best opportunities when it can be done. I am going with Keen Ice.

speedycrap

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June 1st, 2015 at 10:16:23 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
I'm guessing I've watched more horse racing in the last 5 years than anyone else on this board. I only say that to preface my "Yes" vote. This is the perfect type of horse you want to have in the last leg of the triple crown. He has the most efficient stride many have ever seen. He is going to be in the lead running comfortably for 1 1/4 miles. A horse is going to have to have enough energy to catch him after running that distance.

He responds when asked. This is one of those "once in a generation" horses.

In the last 15 years, only Smarty Jones and Big Brown were anywhere near this level. Big Brown was on peds and Smarty Jones just got unlucky.

That being said, of course he can lose. He could stumble at the start, or he could simply hate Belmont. I guess Materiality could be in there just to bother him the whole trip. If he breaks clean and likes the track, he is going to win.

I have never bet against Pharoah, and I'm not going to start now.

But it's all about percentages. Pharoah at 1-9 is a bad bet. At 9-1 it's a great bet. If you gave me even odds on him, I'd bet yes.

I'll be singling him in the pick-4, and grab a few $2 souvenir win tickets. I won't be betting anything on that race.

I will take even money for AP NOT winning the triple crown. US$100. Fin, will you take my bet??

FinsRule

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June 2nd, 2015 at 11:30:21 AM permalink

No. I think it's a fair bet though.

For those Pharoah doubters, check the stats of the last 5-10 champion two year olds who have won the Derby and Preakness, and tell me how they did in the Belmont.

AxelWolf

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June 3rd, 2015 at 2:52:54 PM permalink

Anymore thoughts on this I got down $1500 @ +120 but I'm not sure if I like it.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

kewlj

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June 3rd, 2015 at 3:42:32 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule

For those Pharoah doubters, check the stats of the last 5-10 champion two year olds who have won the Derby and Preakness, and tell me how they did in the Belmont.

I understand what you are saying, Finsrule. Could be me, but this horse just feels different.

I never thought Big Brown, Funnycide or War emblem were really triple crown horses despite that they went into the Belmont with a chance to do so. The only one in the last 15 years or so, that I though was a legitimate triple crown horse was Smarty Jones.

To this day, I still think the jockey, Steward Elliott blew it. If you watch a tape of the race as they turned for home, Smarty Jones opened up on Rock Hard Ten, who was thought to be the main challenger and Steward Elliott took a peak under his left arm and saw that they had put Rock Hard Ten away, but he never looked towards his right, or under his right arm, so he never saw Birdsong circling wide on the outside until it was too late. I swear he never saw him, until Birdsong was coming up along side him with a head of steam. At that point you see Elliott frantically trying to get Smarty moving again, but it was too late.

FinsRule

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June 3rd, 2015 at 6:45:14 PM permalink

Pharoahs profile just fits closer to TC winners than it does to the losers. It's going to be an exciting stretch run.

speedycrap

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June 3rd, 2015 at 8:01:55 PM permalink

Will somebody kindly post the link of pp please? I mean Belmont. Thanks.

AxelWolf

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June 4th, 2015 at 3:09:46 AM permalink

You can grab it @ +125 now.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

HowMany

HowMany

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June 4th, 2015 at 4:38:54 AM permalink

I thought that Big Brown was going to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown. I bet against all others.

Over the past 20 years or so, the best Triple Crown horse was Afleet Alex.

Beaten by less than a length in the Kentucky Derby despite a troubled trip.

Won Preakness by 5 lengths after kissing dirt (nearly fell).

Won Belmont by 7 lengths.

He was a magnificent colt.

ThatDonGuy

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June 4th, 2015 at 6:46:29 AM permalink

Quote: speedycrap
Will somebody kindly post the link of pp please? I mean Belmont. Thanks.

Do you need a link? Here's the list:

PP	Horse	Jockey
1	Mubtaahij	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2	Tale of Verve	Gary Stevens
3	Madefromlucky	Javier Castellano
4	Frammento	Mike Smith
5	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza
6	Frosted	Joel Rosario
7	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux
8	Materiality	John Velazquez

speedycrap

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf

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June 4th, 2015 at 6:55:22 AM permalink

I like to have past performance please.

Keeneone

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June 4th, 2015 at 8:17:28 PM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
Anymore thoughts on this I got down $1500 @ +120 but I'm not sure if I like it.

I think you could make a case for a number of the runners against him on Saturday. But remember he has already beaten every one of his competitors in this race. His biggest competition will probably be the track surface and the distance.

Quote: speedycrap
I like to have past performance please.

speedycrap

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June 4th, 2015 at 8:20:36 PM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
I think you could make a case for a number of the runners against him on Saturday. But remember he has already beaten every one of his competitors in this race. His biggest competition will probably be the track surface and the distance.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf

Thanks

djatc

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June 4th, 2015 at 11:17:15 PM permalink

Alright I took the "no" on AP winning, can someone that lives nearby this damn horse tranquilize it the day of the race? I wanna hedge my bet.

"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous

beachbumbabs

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June 5th, 2015 at 1:01:35 AM permalink

Quote: djatc
Alright I took the "no" on AP winning, can someone that lives nearby this damn horse tranquilize it the day of the race? I wanna hedge my bet.

I think you're gonna need that hedge...at least I hope you do. Would've offered you a friendly bet if you wanted more "no".

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

RonC

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June 5th, 2015 at 1:54:07 AM permalink

Shackleford link...

http://www.darbydan.com/horses/shackleford.html#overview

lilredrooster

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:04:53 AM permalink

In a race like this, far longer than any of the horses have run, pro handicappers look at breeding. AP is not bred for stamina. He gets stamina from the side of his sire but not from his dam. The offspring of his dam were sprinters. Also closely watched are his split times for the final quarters. AP's final quarters have not been good. His final split in the KY Derby was 26.57 - rather slow. It looks like he will not be able to finish this race strongly. It looks like he will not win and the value is in betting against him.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

NokTang

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:10:40 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
In a race like this, far longer than any of the horses have run, pro handicappers look at breeding. AP is not bred for stamina. He gets stamina from the side of his sire but not from his dam. The offspring of his dam were sprinters. Also closely watched are his split times for the final quarters. AP's final quarters have not been good. His final split in the KY Derby was 26.57 - rather slow. It looks like he will not be able to finish this race strongly. It looks like he will not win and the value is in betting against him.

Finally an analysis even us simple folks can understand. I'm off to the betting window. Thanks in advance!

ps: They said the same thing about the Kentucky Wildcats in this last NCAA basketball season and tourney.

lilredrooster

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:49:16 AM permalink

I'm all over betting against him. Like black panties on Kim Kardashian.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

FinsRule

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June 6th, 2015 at 6:11:37 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
In a race like this, far longer than any of the horses have run, pro handicappers look at breeding. AP is not bred for stamina. He gets stamina from the side of his sire but not from his dam. The offspring of his dam were sprinters. Also closely watched are his split times for the final quarters. AP's final quarters have not been good. His final split in the KY Derby was 26.57 - rather slow. It looks like he will not be able to finish this race strongly. It looks like he will not win and the value is in betting against him.

Your whole post is wrong except for the last 7 words.

You mean to tell me every Belmont winner was bred for stamina on sire's side and dam's side? "Pro handicappers" are not pouring over each contenders family tree. Pros realize there's about a 50/50 chance he wins. That means if you can figure out who may have a 20% chance to win (Materiality probably) and you can get him at 7-1, then you're making a +EV bet.

lilredrooster

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June 6th, 2015 at 7:15:48 AM permalink

Materiality is a speed horse who is sure to fade. After 1 mile in the Derby he was 17th and then he passed some faders to finish 6th. In his lone big win in the Florida Derby he was allowed to take the early lead with very slow fractions of 23.89 and 48.24. His other significant win in the Islamorada Handicap he was close to the lead in very slow fractions. His lone big win in the Florida Derby he did the last furlong in a terrible 13.73. He's not 20% he's 2%.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

AxelWolf

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June 6th, 2015 at 7:25:41 AM permalink

I'm not sure where I'll be today and don't know much about horse racing. What time is the race? I assume it's on TV. Anybody know what channel?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

terapined

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June 6th, 2015 at 7:43:00 AM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
I'm not sure where I'll be today and don't know much about horse racing. What time is the race? I assume it's on TV. Anybody know what channel?

NBC 650pm EST
My favorite horse writer , Andy Beyer, is betting against a triple crown winner.
His advice, play an exacta box of Materiality, Keen Ice and Frosted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/american-pharoah-may-win-the-triple-crown-but-im-betting-against-it/2015/06/04/9f1e3c92-0ab9-11e5-95fd-d580f1c5d44e_story.html

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

lilredrooster

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June 6th, 2015 at 7:48:12 AM permalink

Andy Beyer is a great writer known for being wrong about his triple crown picks. He picked Upstart in the KY Derby. Upstart finished last and has since disappeared. Beyer picked AP to lose the Preakness. He liked Firing Line and Dortmund in the Preakness who were both out of the money. I like his idea of an exacta box against AP but not with Materiality in it.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

Sabretom2

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June 6th, 2015 at 9:26:32 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
In a race like this, far longer than any of the horses have run, pro handicappers look at breeding. AP is not bred for stamina. He gets stamina from the side of his sire but not from his dam. The offspring of his dam were sprinters. Also closely watched are his split times for the final quarters. AP's final quarters have not been good. His final split in the KY Derby was 26.57 - rather slow. It looks like he will not be able to finish this race strongly. It looks like he will not win and the value is in betting against him.

No kidding. What horse will beat him? I'm thinking, after the race many smart folks will be holding a whole bunch of value-less tickets.

ontariodealer

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June 6th, 2015 at 9:50:05 AM permalink

5/3,6/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8

get second you pig

speedycrap

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June 6th, 2015 at 10:26:16 AM permalink

6,1/6,1/3,5,7

6-1,3,7

6-1,7-1,3,5,7

EdCollins

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June 6th, 2015 at 11:40:20 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
He's not 20% he's 2%.

I assume you're joking or exaggerating. He's way more than 2%.

ksdjdj

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June 6th, 2015 at 1:32:11 PM permalink

I don't have an opinion of any of the horses, but i punched the win odds into a spreadsheet for all the horses and it spat out ~ 90.59%^^^ or ~ 92.16%*** chance for A P to place (1st, 2nd or 3rd).

---------------------

the 90.59%^^^ chance is based on the tattsbet FIXED PRICE win odds, below:

1. @ +1300, MUBTAAHIJ
2. @ +2500, TALE OF VERVE
3. @ +1800, MADEFROMLUCKY
4. @ +3400, FRAMMENTO
5. @ ~ -133 ($1.75), AMERICAN PHAROAH
6. @ +450, FROSTED
7. @ +1500, KEEN ICE
8. @ +425, MATERIALITY

see link below (for site used)

https://tatts.com/racing/2015/6/7/XS/11

-------------

the 92.16%*** chance is based on the betfair win prices, below:

1. @ +1450, MUBTAAHIJ
2. @ +3500, TALE OF VERVE
3. @ +2100, MADEFROMLUCKY
4. @ +5400, FRAMMENTO
5. @ ~ -108 ($1.92), AMERICAN PHAROAH
6. @ +560, FROSTED
7. @ +1500, KEEN ICE
8. @ +640, MATERIALITY

just type betfair into a search engine and go from there

---------------------------------

here are the place chances*^*, based on the above betfair prices, for all the horses to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd

1. ~28.42%
2. ~12.83%
3. ~20.55%
4. ~8.49%
5. ~92.16%
6. ~57.13%
7. ~27.61%
8. ~52.80%

the above percentages add up to 299.99% (but that is probably a rounding error, as it should add up to 300%)

the place chances*^* should only be considered accurate from a 'simple' computer simulation /or/ mathematical point of view (based on the win prices), as it does not take into account the human errors (riding errors) / 'random chance' factors &&&, that can happen in 'real life' scenarios

-----------------------------

here are some of the possible human errors (riding errors) / 'random chance' factors &&&, that have NOT been taken into account in the above figure (see list below):

Health of the horse on the day: you can usually get a 'feel' of this by having a closer look at the horse near the race start time, eg is it sweating too much?

General Human/Riding Error(s): Was the horse given the best possible chance to win, eg. "the horse had 'plenty of gas left in the tank'/ or/ 'should have won', but was 'boxed in on the fence and couldn't get a good run' (and/or similar scenarios)

Horse 'not wanting to run' and similar problems: Horses are animals and not 'perfect' machines / computer simulations, and can be temperamental, slow to react, spooked/ rear up at the start, etc

Other problems: Gate/barrier fails to open at the same time as other barriers and/or horse get stuck in said barrier, (there are still many things that can 'go wrong' that are not listed here)

----------------------------

Again, to re-iterate, these place chance are ONLY based on the (retail) win prices available to me, if you think you have better win prices/chance %'s, send them to this post before the race, and I will try and give you a place chance based on those prices you give me

Lastly, 5dimes had A P @ -500 ($1.20) to run the place at the time of this post, so i had a small $200 bet on that with them.

-----------------------------

EDIT (@ 16:58 EST): Since this is an opinion thread, I think!!! A P will either blitz them (win by more than 3 lengths) or come a close second/third (finish less than a length of the winner), I know I am contradicting my-self by saying this, since at the start of this reply I said "I don't have an opinion of any of the horses..."

I think!!! means: that I am just guessing blindly, lol

charliepatrick

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June 6th, 2015 at 3:40:48 PM permalink

The latest odds on oddschecker 10mins before the off had

American Pharoah	5/6
Frosted	5/1
Materiality	11/2
Mubtaahij	16/1
Keen Ice	16/1
25/1 bar

ksdjdj

ksdjdj

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June 6th, 2015 at 3:53:21 PM permalink

Quote: charliepatrick
The latest odds on oddschecker 10mins before the off had
American Pharoah
5/6
Frosted
5/1
Materiality
11/2
Mubtaahij
16/1
Keen Ice
16/1
25/1 bar

based on the above prices, my place chances are below (in the same order as quoted above)

94.47%;
65.73%;
62.75%;
28.62%;
28.62%;
19.81%***;

***: assumed bar meant 'horses not mentioned by name'

ps sorry that the race was over by the time i posted this reply, was busy doing chores

RS

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June 6th, 2015 at 3:55:35 PM permalink

Welp, AP won.

Ibeatyouraces

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June 6th, 2015 at 3:55:51 PM permalink

It took an "AP" to win this thing!!

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

beachbumbabs

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June 6th, 2015 at 3:55:57 PM permalink

YEEEEEEESSSS!!!!

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

kewlj

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June 6th, 2015 at 3:58:49 PM permalink

Quote: kewlj
Could be me, but this horse just feels different.

Yep....this horse feels very, very different! :)

Ibeatyouraces

Ibeatyouraces

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:00:13 PM permalink

Quote: kewlj
Yep....this horse feels very, very different! :)

Careful, people might take that the wrong way :-)

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

HowMany

HowMany

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:01:23 PM permalink

Quote: kewlj
Yep....this horse feels very, very different! :)

Congrats JK.

Does this mean that you are now an advantage horseplayer, too?

kewlj

kewlj

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:04:03 PM permalink

Quote: HowMany
Congrats JK.

Does this mean that you are now an advantage horseplayer, too?

For today it might. Not because the horse won, but because I found a way to get a higher return on my money, although looking at the prices, just barely. LOL. :)

djatc

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:08:40 PM permalink

Me at the sportsbook: OH NO!

Everyone else

"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous

Sabretom2

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June 6th, 2015 at 4:09:36 PM permalink

Looking to hear from the value betters.

lilredrooster